CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-02-02T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-02T03:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44392/-1
CME Note: CME/outflow seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1 and (most clearly) in STEREO A COR2 following and overlapping with CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. (Its start in LASCO might be somewhat different). This is the most distinct outflow front among the multiple follow ups to CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. It is especially distinct in STEREO A COR2, as it seems to have a higher latitude than the CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. Its source is not clear but could be the long-duration M5.2 flare from AR 4366 (N13E35) peaking at 2026-02-02T02:51Z. No clear arrival signature for this CME has been seen in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-05T11:50Z (-4.62h, +7.35h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

*** LASCO ***
Time of Launch: 2026/02/02 02:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 18:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 5:40
POS Midpoint: 15:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 13:20

Numeric View/Impact Type: +1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.13
Travel Time: ~6.13 * 13:20 = 81:40

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-02-05T11:50Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/02/02 15:58Z

Lead Time: 62.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-02-02T21:02Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy