CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-02-03T02:10:09Z
## Message ID: 20260203-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20260202-AL-012). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 28 ensemble members (see notes section), 25 (89%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2026-02-04T19:00Z and 2026-02-05T14:25Z (average arrival 2026-02-05T01:09Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 86% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052_Earth_stack.gif

## Notes:
This CME event (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001) was also predicted to impact Solar Orbiter at 2026-02-03T17:23Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-02-05T06:00Z (glancing blow), and STEREO A at 2026-02-05T10:00Z (glancing blow) (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20260202-AL-012).

This CME event (2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001) is associated with the X8.1 flare from AR 14366 (N13E35) with ID 2026-02-01T23:44:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z (see notifications 20260202-AL-001, 20260202-AL-002) and possibly the X2.8 flare from AR 14366 (N13E35) with ID 2026-02-02T00:31:00-FLR-001 (see notifications 20260202-AL-003, 20260202-AL-004).

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M SWAO is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2026-02-02_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052/Detailed_results_20260202_004800_ncmes1_sims28_M2M-ENLIL052.txt


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