CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2026-02-03T19:00:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Feb 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels and dominated by Region 4366 (N14W14,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) with negligible contributions from the remaining
disk. The most notable event during the period was an impulsive X4.2
flare from Region 4366 at 04/1213 UTC. Throughout the period, Region
4366 continued to exhibit a slight reduction in area and a modest
simplification of its magnetic complexity. Region 4369 (S04E23,
Cso/beta), previously an Hsx, developed trailing spots while Regions
4370 (S19E32, Axx/alpha) and 4372 (S24W61, Axx/alpha) decayed in extent
and complexity and became unipolar spot groups. The remaining numbered
regions on the visible disk remained stable or in a state of slight
decay.

Three eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery during the period.
First was a CME off the SE first observed in C2 imagery at 04/1224 UTC
and was likely associated with flaring at 04/1050 UTC near Regions 4370
and 4371 (S23E40, Dao/beta). This event was followed by post-eruptive
arcades at approximately 04/1210 UTC, which further confirmed the source
region despite flare activity being partially obscured by Region 4366.
Modeling indicates no Earth-directed component.

The second was a narrow eruption to the NNW first seen in C2 imagery at
04/1326 UTC; while potentially associated with the aforementioned X4.2
event, it dissipated quickly and its analysis is low confidence. Lastly,
there was another narrow eruption noted off the NE, first visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1426 UTC. This event was likely a
sympathetic eruption triggered by the X4.2, starting at approximately
04/1350 UTC near N15W22 between Regions 4366 and 4367 (N09E25,
Cao/beta). There is a slight potential of minor glancing blows from
these eruptions early on 08 Feb.

.Forecast...
Moderate to high solar activity is expected (80%) due to M-class flaring
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for 05-07 Feb, with a high chance (40%) for
X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to expected further activity
from AR 4366.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high
levels during the period with a peak of 10,400 pfu at 04/1605 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels. 

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels through 07 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a
chance (30%) to exceed S1 (Minor) levels over 05-07 Feb due to the high
eruptive potential of Region 4366. The risk of a proton event will
increase as the region moves into a more favorable magnetic connection
point in the Sun's western hemisphere.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters initially reflected quiet, background conditions
through the first half of the reporting period; however, an
interplanetary shock was observed at 04/1421 UTC. This disturbance is
believed to be the arrival of the complex CME ejecta associated with the
01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366. Total magnetic field (Bt)
jumped abruptly from nominal levels of 5–9 nT to a peak of approximately
24 nT at 04/1440 UTC, with the Bz (north-south) component exhibiting
large fluctuations with sustained southward deflections reaching a
minimum of -17 nT at 04/1516 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from an
average 315 km/s to nearly 540 km/s, while density spiked from about 2
cm^-3 to over 11 cm^-3. Temperature also increased, rising from about
35,000 K to exceeding 250,000 K. The Phi angle remained almost entirely
in the positive (Away from the Sun) orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind is expected to remain moderately disrupted through 06 Feb
due to the continued passage of the X8.1 CME, potentially interacting
with a negative polarity CH HSS, with conditions slightly relaxing on 97
Feb.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the majority of the reporting
period, before reaching G1 (Minor) storm levels with the arrival of the
interplanetary shock.

.Forecast...
Isolated G1 (Minor) storming conditions are anticipated through 06 Feb
due to the interaction of the CME passage with a CH HSS. Unsettled to
active conditions are expected on 07 Feb.

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