CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-02-05T14:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-02-05T14:12ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44501/-1
CME Note: This CME is faint but visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2 and to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery for a few frames before becoming too diffuse to observe. The source may be related to a dimming region entered near S33E10 starting around 2026-02-05T13:00Z in SDO AIA 193 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-09T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44508/1 Model Inputs: 2026-02-05T14:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=394.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2026-02-05T22:14Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-09T08:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-07T14:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260205_221400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gifLead Time: 83.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-02-05T20:43Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy