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Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T16:30Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:
Model & CME input parameters:

CME take-off date & UTC time: Feb 12, 2018 at 05UT
? = 0.3010-7 km-1, w = 350 km/s,
R0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 600 km/s, ? = 20, ?CME = 15
Rtarget = 0.99 AU, ?target = 0 


Comment: the CME was directed towards South - maybe a flank hit with prolonged geomagnetic effects.
Lead Time: 63.13 hour(s)
Difference: -8.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2018-02-12T16:30Z
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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand