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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13660/-1
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T16:30Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

Model & CME input parameters:

CME take-off date & UTC time: Feb 12, 2018 at 05UT
γ = 0.30×10-7 km-1, w = 350 km/s,
R0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 600 km/s, λ = 20°, φCME = 15°
Rtarget = 0.99 AU, φtarget = 0° 


Comment: the CME was directed towards South - maybe a flank hit with prolonged geomagnetic effects.

Lead Time: 63.13 hour(s)
Difference: -8.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2018-02-12T16:30Z

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