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Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T06:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter the full notification:
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Osiris, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2018-02-12T15:37:33Z
## Message ID: 20180212-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2018-02-12T01:25Z.

Estimated speed: ~554 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 49 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 22/-7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Osiris.  The leading edge of the CME will reach Osiris at 2018-02-15T02:40Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2018-02-15T06:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180212_072100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001) is associated with a C1.5 flare with ID 2018-02-12T00:15:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2018-02-12T01:35Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


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For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 63.08 hour(s)
Difference: 0.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (SWRC) on 2018-02-12T16:33Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand