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Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T14:28Z
Prediction Method: ElEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters:
Ellipse parameters
halfwidth:
      49.0
aspectratio:
      1.25
direction from Earth in HEE longitude:
22.0
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Drag parameters
R0 initial distance:
36.0 (approx. from STEREO/HI beacon data)
tinit:
2018-02-12T11:18:00.000
vinit:
500
background wind:
350
gamma:
0.1

Predicted arrival speed at Earth: 430 km/s
Lead Time: 45.30 hour(s)
Difference: -6.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) on 2018-02-13T10:20Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand