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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13660/-1
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T14:28Z
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Ellipse parameters
halfwidth:
      49.0
aspectratio:
      1.25
direction from Earth in HEE longitude:
22.0
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Drag parameters
R0 initial distance:
36.0 (approx. from STEREO/HI beacon data)
tinit:
2018-02-12T11:18:00.000
vinit:
500
background wind:
350
gamma:
0.1

Predicted arrival speed at Earth: 430 km/s

Lead Time: 45.30 hour(s)
Difference: -6.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) on 2018-02-13T10:20Z

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