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Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-14T09:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2018 Feb 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels during the period due to a long
duration C1 flare at 12/0135 UTC from Region 2699 (S07W29, Dai/beta). 
Associated with the flare activity was an asymmetric halo CME first
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 12/0125 UTC.  WSA/ENLIL model
analysis of the event indicated a glancing blow late on 14 Feb to early
on 15 Feb.

New flux emergence and consolidation was observed in the intermediate
area of Region 2699 while the larger leading and trailing spots were
stable.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for C-class flares with a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare on days one through three (13-15 Feb) due to the
flare potential of Region 2699.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux were at or near background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
levels for the next three days (13-15 Feb).  There is a slight chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on day one (13 Feb) due to recent
flare activity from Region 2699.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be at background levels on days two and three (14-15 Feb).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels.  Solar wind speed ranged
from approximately 300-345 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while
the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT.  Phi angle was oriented in a
mostly positive (away) solar sector with brief rotations into a negative
(towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one
and through the majority of day two (13-14 Feb).  By late on day two to
early on day three (15 Feb), parameters are expected to become enhanced
with the arrival of the 12 Feb CME likely in combination with the
arrival of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind
speed reaching 600 km/s is likely with the CH HSS based on STEREO A Mag
& Plastic data.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and
through the majority of day two (13-14 Feb).  A glancing blow from the
12 Feb CME combined with CIR effects is expected to arrive late on day
two through early on day three (14-15 Feb).  Active levels are expected
late on 14 Feb with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 15
Feb.
--

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2018 Feb 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2018

            Feb 13     Feb 14     Feb 15
00-03UT        2          1          3     
03-06UT        1          2          4     
06-09UT        1          1          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          1          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          1          4     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        2          4          4     

Rationale: A glancing blow from the 12 Feb CME combined with CIR effects
is expected to arrive late on day two through early on day three (14-15
Feb).  G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 15 Feb as a result.
Lead Time: 60.28 hour(s)
Difference: 22.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2018-02-12T19:21Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand