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Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13660/-1
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T02:18Z
Prediction Method: CAT-PUMA
Prediction Method Note:

Input:

CME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:
Onset time: 2018-02-12T01:25:00
Angular width: 266.6
Average speed: 688.5 km/s
Final speed: 654.8 km/s
Mass: 3.94e15 g
MPA: 262.8

Solar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:
Bz: -1.22 nT
Alpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041  # No observation, use average value in the model
Flow Speed: 314.5 km/s
Flow Latitude: -1.86
Pressure: 0.974 nPa
Flow Longitude: 2.19
Bx: 1.038 nT
Temperature: 15624.54 K

Lead Time: 43.47 hour(s)
Difference: 5.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jiajia Liu (QUB) on 2018-02-13T12:10Z

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