CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMCSWRCCME ScoreBoard

Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T02:16Z (-14.3h, +10.4h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 81.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter a copy of the entire notification here:

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Osiris, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2018-02-13T12:56:57Z
## Message ID: 20180213-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME(s) with ID(s) 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20180212-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 32 ensemble members (see notes section), 26 (81%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2018-02-14T12:00Z and 2018-02-15T12:38Z (average arrival 2018-02-15T02:16Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 82% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 2-4 range (below minor to minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif

## Notes:
Ensemble CME modeling at SWRC is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2018-02-12_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067/Detailed_results_20180212_012500_ncmes1_sims32_HILOX067.txt
###


NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer

Data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it "as is".

Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.

The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.

For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 40.18 hour(s)
Difference: 5.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michael GreklekMcKeon (CCMC) on 2018-02-13T15:27Z
Insert title here

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand