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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-03-05T23:39Z
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T14:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 5.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Date: March 6, 2018 at 8:31:20 AM MST
Subject: CME arrival alert

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2018-03-09T14:30:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 2
max_estimated_peak_K: 4
probability_of_arrival: 5

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2018 Mar 06 12:39UTC

Solar X ray flux remained below B level and with no spotted regions on the
visible disk chances for any flare occurrences remain very low.
SoHO/LASCO C2 images show a very faint and slow CME first visible around
1:25 UT. It is primarily directed towards the south west and given its
faint character its angular extent can not clearly be determined. Stereo A
COR2 images however suggest that it can not be excluded that Earth is on
its propagation path. Further analysis is ongoing but given its faint
nature and slow speed any possible impacts should be fairly insignificant.
Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain
so.
Lead Time: 79.98 hour(s)
Difference: 9.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2018-03-06T15:31Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand