CME ScoreBoard Header


Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-03-05T23:39Z
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T16:00Z (-8.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 86.0%
Prediction Method: Other
Prediction Method Note:
Drag Based Ensemble Model version2 (DBEMv2):

Model & CME input parameters:
SHOCK arrival prediction:
start time: 2018-03-06 08:45 (+/-30 min)
start distance: 20 Rsun
initial speed: 550 km/s (+/- 100 km/s)
halfwidth: 50 deg (+/-10 deg)
cmd: 30 deg (+/-10 deg)
solar wind speed: 400 km/s (+/- 50 km/s)
gamma: 0.1 (+/-0.05)
probability of arrival: 100% (we instead use PoA of CME)
SHOCK arrival date & time: 2018-03-09 16:00
SHOCK arrival speed: 470 km/s
CME arrival prediction:
start time: 2018-03-06 08:45 (+/- 30 min)
start distance: 20 Rsun
initial speed: 550 km/s (+/-100 km/s)
halfwidth: 35 deg (+/- 10 deg)
cmd: 30 deg (+/- 10 deg)
solar wind speed: 400 km/s (+/-50 km/s)
gamma: 0.2 (+/- 0.05)
probability of arrival: 86%
CME arrival date & time: 2018-03-10 00:00
CME arrival speed: 430 km/s
Lead Time: 56.23 hour(s)
Difference: 7.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (UNIGRAZ) on 2018-03-07T15:16Z
Insert title here

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand