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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-03-05T23:39Z
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-03-10T08:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2018-03-06-T10:0Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 384
Longitude (deg): E010
Latitude (deg): S16
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: Low confidence due to faint appearance on Lasco-C3, and current background ENLIL winds deemed too strong. CME might be obscured amongst CH HSS effects.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite
Lead Time: 46.13 hour(s)
Difference: -8.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2018-03-08T01:22Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand