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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-03-05T23:39Z
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T10:43Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
CME_speed = 490.0 km/s (+/- 90 km/s)
u_r       = 544.8
Duration in seconds:  299095.17
Duration in days:     3.4617496
Acceleration of the CME:  -0.36 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  437.3 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/03/2018 Time: 10:43 UT
Lead Time: 62.50 hour(s)
Difference: 12.78 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2018-03-07T09:00Z
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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand