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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-07-05T04:39Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14018/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible in STEREO A COR2 on the W limb. It starts as a slowly brightening near the streamer before the CME is clearly visible. For this reason the start time can be anywhere between 02:39 (labelled by SIDC) and 13:09 (labelled by SWPC).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-07-10T11:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-07-10T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 5.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
:Issued: 2018 Jul 06 1102 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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CORRECTION - Concerning:PRESTO issued at 20:10 UT on 05-Jul-2018.  Following further analysis of new STEREO A, EUV and LASCO observations, the CME speed was attributed to a second back-sided CME observed in LASCO observations. Following further analysis, the front sided event is less energetic, with a speed of 212 km/s first seen in STEREO Ahead COR2 observations at 02:39 UT. Any impact is expected to be negligible, but an approximate arrival will be on 10-Jul-2018.
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Lead Time: 96.37 hour(s)
Difference: 2.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2018-07-06T11:03Z
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