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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-07-05T04:39Z
CME Note: This CME is visible in STEREO A COR2 on the W limb. It starts as a slowly brightening near the streamer before the CME is clearly visible. For this reason the start time can be anywhere between 02:39 (labelled by SIDC) and 13:09 (labelled by SWPC).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-07-10T11:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-07-09T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 05/2212UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 258km/s
Longitude (deg): 15W
Latitude (deg): 3S
Half-angular width (deg): 25 

Notes: It was hard to analyse with only Stereo A providing useful information. A very faint return was tenuously observed in Lasco C2. The slow CME will likely be accelerated slightly by the solar wind, but it shows a negative shock on ENLIL. The Ensemble shows a wide spread through the 9th and 10th. Most likely to see Kp of 3 or 4, with low chance of a Kp5. The later CME appears to be far-sided, and not likely to impact Earth. A filament disturbance in the 5th evening in the NW quadrant did not show anything significant on Stereo A or SOHO.
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC AMS
Lead Time: 89.17 hour(s)
Difference: 17.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2018-07-06T18:15Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand