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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-07-05T04:39Z
CME Note: This CME is visible in STEREO A COR2 on the W limb. It starts as a slowly brightening near the streamer before the CME is clearly visible. For this reason the start time can be anywhere between 02:39 (labelled by SIDC) and 13:09 (labelled by SWPC).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-07-10T11:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-07-09T09:00Z (-5.0h, +5.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2.

Vo = 38857 km/s (from Cactus)
u_r =      439.992 km/s
Acceleration:     0.0346572
Duration in seconds:        337726.61
Duration in days:        3.9088728
t2 is negative
Acceleration of the CME:   0.03 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  451.7 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/07/2018 Time: 09:00 UT
Lead Time: 71.42 hour(s)
Difference: 26.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2018-07-07T12:00Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand