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Prediction for CME (2018-08-19T07:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-08-19T07:36Z
CME Note: SIDC: In SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images a very narrow (only around 10 degrees angular width) CME is visible from August 19 7:36UT onwards, directed towards the South-West. It is also visible from Stereo A COR2, also narrow and directed to the South-West from this viewpoint. The arrival time for this CME could have been confused with the arrival time of the 2018-08-20T21:24Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-24T05:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-08-21T23:59Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2018 Aug 21 1238 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 80821
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Aug 2018, 1237UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Aug 2018 until 23 Aug 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Aug 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 017
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to be very low with X-ray flux remaining
below B level throughout the period.
Field separation was observed the simple bipolar NOAA active region 2719
inhibiting only a small potential for a possible C flare.
X-ray flux is thus expected to remain below C level.

The filament located around the central meridian between 35 and 50 degrees
North seems to have lifted off around 19:00UT. A possibly related slow
(below 300 km/s) and faint CME front can be detected in SoHO/LASCO C2
images from around 21:12UT. It is directed towards the West and has an
angular extent of around 90 degrees. Due to a datagap in Stereo A COR2 data
there is no more accurate information on the direction of the ejecta.
Given the speed, direction and angular extent of the CME from Earth
perspective no impact on Earth is expected.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind saw the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed
stream.
Solar wind speed increased before midnight to around 670 km/s before
declining to around 600 km/s currently. Total magnetic field was at
background values of 2-5 nT with a decaying trend.
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated under the influence
of the high speeds from the transequatorial extension of the Southern
polar coronal hole. A shock related to the August 19 CME could potentially
occur within the next 24 hours but any effects should be small within the
already elevated background solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions saw active periods around 18:00-21:00 UT (both local
K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 4) but were otherwise quiet to unsettled (both local
K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 2-3).
Mainly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected but as solar wind
speeds remain elevated and with possible CME related perturbations
arriving, active periods are possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 016, BASED ON 23 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Aug 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 068
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 021
AK WINGST              : 018
ESTIMATED AP           : 018
ESTIMATED ISN          : 016, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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Lead Time: 64.27 hour(s)
Difference: 53.85 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2018-08-21T13:34Z
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Curator: Chiu Wiegand