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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-09-27T04:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-09-27T04:54Z
CME Note: The source is a filament eruption seen in SDO AIA 304 around 09-27T04:00Z around S40E10. CME is very faint and difficult to measure. Start time may not be accurate. Some small disturbances were seen in the SW data, but nothing clear to determine the arrival of the CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-09-30T23:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 
Longitude (deg): 
Latitude (deg): 
Half-angular width (deg): 

Space weather advisor:
Lead Time: 65.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2018-09-28T06:00Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand