CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMCSWRCCME ScoreBoard

Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-11-30T03:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-11-30T03:00Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-12-05T00:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
Image Created: 2018-11-30 19:27 UTC

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2018 Dec 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 03-Dec 05 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 03-Dec 05 2018

            Dec 03     Dec 04     Dec 05
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        2          4          3     
06-09UT        2          2          4     
09-12UT        1          2          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        4          3          3     


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2018 Dec 03 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 03-05 Dec.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels on days one and two (03-04 Dec) following CH HSS activity.
Normal flux levels are expected on day three (05 Dec) in response to the
the anticipated arrival of the 30 Nov CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to the arrival of a CIR in
advance of a positive polarity CH HSS. 

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
forecast period due to CH HSS influence and the possible arrival of the
30 Nov CME on day three (05 Dec).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
throughout the forecast period (03-05 Dec) in response to CH HSS 
effects and the possible arrival of the 30 Nov CME on day three (05
Dec).


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2018 Dec 01 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. The pair of
CMEs mentioned in the previous discussion product, associated with the
filament eruption centered near S56W09, and occurring at approximately
30/0300 UTC, were analyzed and determined to contain a likely
Earth-directed component. ENLIL modeling suggests a potential arrival
time early on 05 Dec. There were no additional Earth-directed CMEs
observed in available satellite imagery.
Lead Time: 100.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2018-11-30T19:27Z
Insert title here

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand