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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-11-30T03:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-11-30T03:00Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-12-06T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2018 Dec 04 1233 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 81204
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Dec 2018, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Dec 2018 until 06 Dec 2018)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Dec 2018  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Dec 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2018  10CM FLUX: 068 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The
visible solar disc remained spotless, and no significant flare has been
recorded. Quiet flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour
period.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements remained under the influence of the enhanced
solar wind associated with the Coronal Hole (which reached the central
meridian on November 27). The wind speed reached 506 km/s on December 3,
around 13.00 UT and then slowly decreased to the current value of 406 km/s;
The interplanetary magnetic field strength fluctuated between 4 and 9 nT
and the southward magnetic component between -7 and 7 nT. The solar wind
parameters are expected decrease and return towards an ambient background
and slow solar wind speed regime. Moreover, a CME was observed headed south
on December 30 with low speed. The northern flank of this CME may glance
Earth later today or earlier on December 5. Slightly enchantment of the
solar wind parameters might be observed.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled with a short period of
active condition observed by the local station in Dourbes (K-Dourbs=4) on
December 3, at 17:00 UT. The conditions are expected to be mainly quiet
(short unsettled period cannot be excluded) as the Earth is entering the
slow solar wind speed regime..

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 03 Dec 2018
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 068
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 018
AK WINGST              : ///
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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Lead Time: 38.45 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2018-12-04T12:33Z
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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand