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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-03-08T04:17:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-03-08T04:17Z
CME Note: Large eruption from AR 2734 at 03:11Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-12T02:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-13T04:00Z (-15.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:
Prediction Method: DBM(DBEM)

Prediction Method Note:
Drag-based model in ensemble mode v2 (DBEMv2-ESA/SSA application)
http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather

Model & CME input parameters:
start time: 2019-03-08 15:00 (+/-30 min)
start distance: 20 Rsun
initial speed: 350 km/s (+/-100)
halfwidth: 30 deg (+/-10)
cmd: 6 deg (+/-10)
solar wind speed: 322 km/s (+/-50)
gamma: 0.1 (+/-0.05)
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probability of arrival: 100%
CME arrival date & time: 2019-03-08 04:00 (+12h, -15h)
CME arrival speed: 340 km/s (+/- 50 km/s)
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Lead Time: 63.83 hour(s)
Difference: -26.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (UNIGRAZ) on 2019-03-09T10:10Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand