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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-03-08T04:17:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-03-08T04:17Z
CME Note: Large eruption from AR 2734 at 03:11Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-12T02:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-10T17:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2019 Mar 09 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 09-Mar 11 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 09-Mar 11 2019

            Mar 09     Mar 10     Mar 11
00-03UT        3          3          2     
03-06UT        2          1          4     
06-09UT        2          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          5 (G1)
12-15UT        2          2          5 (G1)
15-18UT        2          2          5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          2          4     
21-00UT        2          2          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 11 Mar from an anticipated 
glancing blow from a transient CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2019

              Mar 09  Mar 10  Mar 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 09-Mar 11 2019

              Mar 09        Mar 10        Mar 11
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2019 Mar 09 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2734 (N08W17, Hax/alpha)
produced a long duration C1/Sf event at 08/0319 UTC, followed by a
secondary C1 enhancement, which peaked shortly after at 08/0336 UTC.
GOES-14 SXI imagery depicted the source of the bimodal X-ray signature
with initial brightening in the leading portion of the region followed
by brightening in the trailer portion of the region. Associated with
both events were two separate CME signatures, a western directed CME,
first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0428 UTC, followed by an eastern
directed CME, first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0438 UTC.

Analysis and modeling of the two signatures suggested most of the ejecta
from the western oriented CME was directed upstream of Earth, with
enhancement from the periphery of the CME likely early on 11 Mar. Ejecta
from the second CME was projected to pass downstream of Earth's orbit,
with a chance for minor enhancement late on 11 Mar.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class flares all three days (09-11 Mar), due to the weak
flare potential from Region 2734.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at moderate to high
levels with a maximum flux of 2,080 observed at 08/2135 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
09 Mar, decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 10-11 Mar. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced through the period. Solar
wind speeds averaged about 400 km/s, total field ranged between 3-6 nT
while the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi angle remained in a
predominately negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are anticipated to be slightly enhanced through
09-10 Mar as several tenuous, isolated, negative polarity CH HSS undergo
weak connections with the near-Earth environment. There is also the
possibility of brief connections with the south polar crown on both
days. By 11 Mar, an increase in wind parameters are expected due to CME
interaction described earlier.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
09-10 Mar due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. By 11 Mar, field
conditions are expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm conditions due to CME
arrival early in the day.
Lead Time: 73.50 hour(s)
Difference: 33.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2019-03-09T00:30Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand