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Prediction for CME (2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-03-20T08:24Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-24T20:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-23T11:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (OSIRIS-REx, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2019-03-20T17:23:00Z
## Message ID: 20190320-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A. 

Start time of the event: 2019-03-20T08:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~541 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 41 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 14/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-REx (glancing blow).  The leading edge or flank of the CME will reach OSIRIS-REx at 2019-03-24T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2019-03-23T11:11Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20190320_181900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001) is associated with the B6.1 flare with ID 2019-03-20T07:05:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2019-03-20T07:14Z and the C4.8 flare with ID 2019-03-20T10:35:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2019-03-20T11:18Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


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For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 99.33 hour(s)
Difference: 33.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Beryl HovisAfflerbach (CCMC) on 2019-03-20T17:23Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand