CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMCSWRCCME ScoreBoard

Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-03-20T08:24Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-24T20:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-24T03:50Z
Prediction Method: CAT-PUMA
Prediction Method Note:
This is a prediction for the CME at 2019-03-20T11:24:00
The angular width for the CME at 2019-03-20T08:24:00 is too small for CAT-PUMA to make a prediction.

CME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:
Onset time: 2019-03-20T11:24:00
Angular width: 104.2
Average speed: 341.1 km/s
Final speed: 317.5 km/s
Mass: 9.22e14 g
MPA: 305.0

Solar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:
Bz: -0.690 nT
Alpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041  # No observation, use average value in the model
Flow Speed: 400.539 km/s
Flow Latitude: -0.730
Pressure: 0.666 nPa
Flow Longitude: 2.572
Bx: -2.944 nT
Temperature: 58708.71 K
Lead Time: 81.23 hour(s)
Difference: 16.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jiajia Liu (UoS) on 2019-03-21T11:29Z
Insert title here

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand