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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-03-20T08:24Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-24T20:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-03-23T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: 3-Day Forecast 
Issued: 2019 Mar 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 21-Mar 23 2019 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 21-Mar 23 2019

           Mar 21     Mar 22     Mar 23
00-03UT        0          2          1
03-06UT        1          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          2
09-12UT        1          1          2
12-15UT        1          1          4
15-18UT        1          2          6 (G2)
18-21UT        2          2          6 (G2)
21-00UT        2          1          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1-G2 (Moderate-Minor) storming is likely on Mar 23 due to
the 20 Mar CME arrival and subsequent effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2019

             Mar 21  Mar 22  Mar 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 21-Mar 23 2019

             Mar 21        Mar 22        Mar 23
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance of R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
will exist 21-23 Mar due to active region 2736. (edited) 

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2019 Mar 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels this period. Region 2736 (N09W41,
Dai/beta) produced an impulsive C5/1f flare at 21/0312 UTC, in addition
to several B-level enhancements in X-ray flux. Multiple ENLIL model runs
seem to have reached a consensus that the arrival of the 20 Mar CME will
occur around mid UTC day on 23 Mar. However, forecaster confidence is
only at moderate levels with the arrival timing output due to over
forecasted wind speeds in the current ambient environment.

Another faint, slow moving CME occurred at approximately 20/1930 UTC off
the West limb and will be analyzed and modeled as more coronagraph
imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Region 2736
remains an active spot group. C-flares are likely the next three days
(21-23 Mar) with a slight chance of M-flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts).

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 21-23 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to maintain background levels, but will largely depend on
activity associated with Region 2736.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began somewhat elevated due to a positive polarity
CH HSS. Total field strength remained less than 5 nT, and the Bz
component underwent no significant southward deviations. Solar wind
speeds were around 400 km/s to start the period, but gradually decreased
to around 350 km/s by periods end. Phi was in a positive orientation.

.Forecast...
A near-background solar wind environment is expected on 21-22 Mar as CH
HSS effects continue to decline. The anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar
CME is expected to enhance the near-Earth solar wind environment on 23
Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 21-22 Mar with a return to
background solar wind conditions. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic
storm conditions are likely on 23 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of
the 20 Mar CME.
Lead Time: 94.87 hour(s)
Difference: 32.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yihua Zheng (GSFC) on 2019-03-20T21:51Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand