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Prediction for CME (2019-05-07T04:42:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-07T04:42Z
CME Note: This is an extremely faint CME and a possible partial halo seen going to the South East in C3. There could be several potential associated eruptions associated with it, with no definite clarity. Now that C2 images are available, it seems that most probably the CME is associated with a slow lift off of a long N-S oriented filament north from the AR 2740. The CME has an unusually-shaped front (as seen in STA and in difference C3 imagery).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-10T16:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-10T12:00Z
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2019 May 07 2138 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Incomplete SoHO LASCO C2 coronagraph data show within the covered
timeperiod of 23:48UT May 6 and 00:36UT May 7 that a CME associated with
the continuous activity in NOAA region 2740 has an asymetric halo
character. The CME is primarily directed to the North-East but a faint halo
front over the South-West can also be seen during this short period covered
by LASCO C2 data. The CME is better covered in time by STEREO A COR2 data
where its main core becomes visible starting 16:24UT May 6. A projected
speed of around 400 km/s from STEREO A perspective has been estimated.
Given the halo character a possible arrival at Earth is estimated in the
afternoon of May 10. The main direction of the CME is not directly to Earth
though, and given also the speed of the CME, associated increases in Solar
wind speed should remain limited.
Updates will be provided if additional measurement data require to modify
this estimate.
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Lead Time: 67.28 hour(s)
Difference: 4.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2019-05-07T21:38Z
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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand