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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-11T02:39Z
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-15T04:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2019-05-11T12:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 500
Longitude (deg): 8W
Latitude (deg): 6N
Half-angular width (deg): 30

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: AG/MA
Lead Time: 49.52 hour(s)
Difference: -29.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2019-05-11T20:35Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand