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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-12T19:54Z
CME Note: There is no clear signature arrival for this specific CME. The arrival attributed to the 2019-05-13T16:09Z CME is also very weak and difficult to be certain about it.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-15T14:52Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2019-05-13 01:51 
?- Time at C2: 2019-05-12 19:54 
?- Radial speed: 607.0 km/s
?- Half angle: 35 deg
?- Eruption location: S13E10
?? - No flare association was found
?Predictions for Earth:
?? - In-situ shock speed: 588.10 km/s
?? - Shock arrival time: 2019-05-15 14:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.97 hours)

Predicted Kp: 4.4
Lead Time: 57.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2019-05-13T05:30Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand