CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMCSWRCCME ScoreBoard

Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-11T02:39Z
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-14T10:01Z
Prediction Method: CAT-PUMA
Prediction Method Note:
This is a prediction for the CME at 2019-05-11T04:36
The angular width for the CME at 2019-05-11T00:00 is too small for CAT-PUMA to make a prediction.

CME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 (too faint in C3):
Onset time: 2019-05-11T04:36
Angular width: 127.6
Average speed: 163.4 km/s
Final speed: 178.9 km/s
Mass: 3.90e15 g (average value from the model)
MPA: 327.3

Solar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:
Bz: -7.355 nT
Alpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041  # No observation, use average value in the model
Flow Speed: 359.450 km/s
Flow Latitude: -0.214
Pressure: 0.747 nPa
Flow Longitude: 3.971
Bx:  1.650 nT
Temperature: 27359.303 K
Lead Time: 2.77 hour(s)
Difference: -11.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jiajia Liu (UoS) on 2019-05-13T19:20Z
Insert title here

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand