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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-13T16:09Z
CME Note: Signature is very weak and difficult to discern exact time. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: Around ~21 hrs on the May 16, there is a monotonic change in the magnetic field direction that can be associated with a flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T16:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2019-05-13T16:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 590 km/s
Longitude (deg): 20W
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 29 deg 

Notes: There was some differences in the speed depending on the longitude and half angle used. The model run suggests it will begin to catch up with the previous CME with space cleared of matter. We are fairly confident it will arrive at Earth, but it may be hard to attribute or determine arrival time with multiple CMEs en-route to Earth. Space weather advisor: AMS
Lead Time: 51.42 hour(s)
Difference: -1.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2019-05-14T12:45Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand