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Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-13T16:09Z
CME Note: Signature is very weak and difficult to discern exact time. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: Around ~21 hrs on the May 16, there is a monotonic change in the magnetic field direction that can be associated with a flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T16:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-17T15:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -31
Prediction Method: Anemomilos
Prediction Method Note:
: Product: Dst_alert_status
: Issued: 13-May-2019 20:00:01 UTC
: JDIssued: 2458617.33336
: Number_of_Data_Records: 1
: Missing_data: 9999
: Source: SET Stream B (Anemomilos) algorithm
: version: 3.46
# Prepared by Space Environment Technologies/Space Weather Division
# Contact:
# Forecast_summary_metadata:
#   AlertIssued is the alert issue time
#   PredictStart is the event predicted start time
#   PredictPeak is the event predicted peak time
#   EL is the wait time in minutes before issuing another alert
#   GX is the alert level on NOAA G scale ranging from G0 to G5
#       G4, G5: WARNING: is issued when a hazardous event is occurring,
#           is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurring.
#           A warning is used for very active conditions posing a threat
#           to life or property.
#       G3: ADVISORY: is issued in active to very active conditions
#           that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution
#           is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten
#           life and/or property.
#       G2: WATCH: is issued when the risk of a hazardous event has increased
#           significantly, but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is
#           still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead-time in
#           active conditions so that those who need to set their plans in
#           motion can do so.
#       G1: ALERT: is issued when an event threshold is crossed. It contains
#           information that is available at the time of issue.
#       G0: MONITORING: is issued when the geomagnetic conditions are being
#           actively monitored with information that is available at the
#           time of issue.
#   DST is the predicted peak (deepest perturbation) of event in nT
#   Pr is the % probability of occurrence of event at epoch
#   Sr is the source of forecast (daily Probability (GP or SP), Solar Event (SO), or None (NN))
#   Vel is the velocity of the ejecta leaving the solar surface in km/sec
#   Status of the combined predicted Dst events relative to NOAA G-scale
#      AC = all clear (>-10 nT) (G0 monitoring)
#      UN = unsettled (-33 to -10 nT) (G1 alert)
#      SE = small event predicted (-33 to -48 nT) (G2 watch)
#      ME = medium event predicted (-48 to -198 nT) (G3 advisory)
#      LE = large event predicted (-198 to -350 nT) (G4 warning)
#      LX = very large event predicted (-350 to -400 nT) (G5 warning)
#   CID is the Class ID for the event composed of a letter flare class and Xhf magnitude
#      C = small flare class
#      M = medium flare class
#      X = large flare class
#      0-300 = Xhf magnitude of event
#   Bz is the estimated dominant Bz direction at Earth (N = northward, S = southward)
# AlertIssued  PredictStart PredictPeak  EL GX  DST Pr Sr  Vel Status CID  Bz
201905132000 201905132200 201905171500 60 G1 -031 02 NN  750 UN     C027 S
Lead Time: 68.17 hour(s)
Difference: -22.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2019-05-13T20:00Z
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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand