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Prediction for CME (2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-11T02:39Z
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-15T02:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2019 May 12 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2740 (N08W27, Hax/alpha)
and Region 2741 (N06E11, Hsx/alpha) were both stable and absent of
significant flare activity. The CMEs that were mentioned in the previous
discussion product were analyzed and it was determined that they each
contain an Earth-directed component. Enlil model output suggests an
arrival time on 15 May.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 May, with a slight
chance for an isolated C-class flare.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 7,580 pfu at 11/2345 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
12-14 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
unchanged at background levels.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2019 May 13 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 13-May 15 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 13-May 15 2019

            May 13     May 14     May 15
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        1          2          2     
06-09UT        2          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          1          4     
15-18UT        1          1          4     
18-21UT        2          1          4     
21-00UT        1          2          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 May due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME from 11 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 13-May 15 2019

              May 13  May 14  May 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 13-May 15 2019

              May 13        May 14        May 15
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected persistent transient influence. Wind
speed was steady ranging between 330-360 km/s. Total field reached a
peak of 12 nT. The Bz component was negative for the majority of the
reporting period with a low value of -11 nT. Phi angle shifted from
negative to positive at approximately 11/0615 UTC.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to reflect continued transient
influence on days one and two (12-13 May). Near background solar wind
conditions are likely to return on day three (14 May).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels due to transient effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 12
May, and quiet to unsettled levels on 13 May due to persistent transient
influence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 14 May.
Lead Time: 43.10 hour(s)
Difference: -27.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2019-05-12T03:00Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand