Prediction for CME (2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2019-05-12T19:54Z
CME Note: There is no clear signature arrival for this specific CME. The arrival attributed to the 2019-05-13T16:09Z CME is also very weak and difficult to be certain about it.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2741 (N05W10, Hsx/alpha) was mostly stable and Region 2740 (N08W48, Hrx/alpha) was in gradual decay. A B3 flare, from Region 2741, at 12/2251 UTC was the strongest of the period. A DSF, approximately 10 degrees in length and centered near N05W05, was observed erupting after 12/1900 UTC. A subsequent partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 12/2024 UTC. Initial WSA-Enlil model output suggested arrival of the CME on 16 May. The model's arrival timing is subject to increased uncertainty as multiple CMEs are currently suspected on the Sun-Earth line. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 May, with a slight chance for isolated C-class flares. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 13,216 pfu at 12/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 13-15 May in response to transient influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue unchanged at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, remained slightly enhanced. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 6-9 nT. The Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT as 13/0857 UTC. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 310-360 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to reflect near-background conditions on days one and two (13-14 May). Enhancements in all solar wind parameters are likely on day three (15 May) as CMEs from the 10 May and 11 May are expected to become geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13-14 May. An increase in geomagnetic activity will likely exceed G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 15 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 10 May and 11 May CMEs. Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 May 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 14-May 16 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 14-May 16 2019 May 14 May 15 May 16 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 1 4 3 09-12UT 1 5 (G1) 3 12-15UT 1 5 (G1) 4 15-18UT 1 4 5 (G1) 18-21UT 2 4 5 (G1) 21-00UT 2 3 5 (G1) Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnectic storming is likely on 15-16 May due to the arrival of the 10 and 12 May CMEs respectively. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 14-May 16 2019 May 14 May 15 May 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 14-May 16 2019 May 14 May 15 May 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.Lead Time: 65.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2019-05-13T12:30Z
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