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Prediction for CME (2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-12T19:54Z
CME Note: There is no clear signature arrival for this specific CME. The arrival attributed to the 2019-05-13T16:09Z CME is also very weak and difficult to be certain about it.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2019 May 13 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2741 (N05W10,
Hsx/alpha) was mostly stable and Region 2740 (N08W48, Hrx/alpha) was in
gradual decay. A B3 flare, from Region 2741, at 12/2251 UTC was the
strongest of the period.

A DSF, approximately 10 degrees in length and centered near N05W05, was
observed erupting after 12/1900 UTC. A subsequent partial halo CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 12/2024 UTC. Initial
WSA-Enlil model output suggested arrival of the CME on 16 May. The
model's arrival timing is subject to increased uncertainty as multiple
CMEs are currently suspected on the Sun-Earth line.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 May, with a slight
chance for isolated C-class flares.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 13,216 pfu at 12/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
13-15 May in response to transient influence. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue unchanged at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, remained
slightly enhanced. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 6-9 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT as
13/0857 UTC. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 310-360 km/s. Phi
angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to reflect near-background
conditions on days one and two (13-14 May). Enhancements in all solar
wind parameters are likely on day three (15 May) as CMEs from the 10 May
and 11 May are expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13-14 May. An
increase in geomagnetic activity will likely exceed G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions on 15 May due to the anticipated arrival of
the 10 May and 11 May CMEs.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2019 May 14 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 14-May 16 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 14-May 16 2019

            May 14     May 15     May 16
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        1          2          3     
06-09UT        1          4          3     
09-12UT        1          5 (G1)     3     
12-15UT        1          5 (G1)     4     
15-18UT        1          4          5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          4          5 (G1)
21-00UT        2          3          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnectic storming is likely on 15-16 May due
to the arrival of the 10 and 12 May CMEs respectively.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 14-May 16 2019

              May 14  May 15  May 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 14-May 16 2019

              May 14        May 15        May 16
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Lead Time: 65.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2019-05-13T12:30Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand