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Prediction for CME (2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2019-05-13T16:09Z
CME Note: Signature is very weak and difficult to discern exact time. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: Around ~21 hrs on the May 16, there is a monotonic change in the magnetic field direction that can be associated with a flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T16:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-17T02:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2019 May 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2740 (N08W67, Axx/alpha) continued
to slowly decay as it rotated closer to the west limb. Region 2741
(N06W30, Hsx/alpha) changed little and remained stable. No new
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (15-17
May), with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one and two while
Region 2740 is still present on the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to normal to moderate
levels due to CME arrival effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained unchanged at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to vary from normal to
high levels all three days (15-17 May) due to recent elevated solar wind
speeds and effects resultant from CME arrivals. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a likely, unobserved CME
arrival; preceded by possible CIR influences and south polar CH HSS
connection. Total IMF strength unsteadily increased to a maximum value
of 15 nT by 14/0231 UTC. Field strength remained at similar levels,
before it decreased after 14/0630 UTC. The Bz component swung prolonged
and pronounced southward from about 14/0300-0630 UTC. Total field
strength and Bz signatures during this time frame, and particularly
afterwards, were suggestive of CME arrival and passage. Solar wind speed
increased unsteadily from around 460-475 at the start of the period, to
near 575 km/s by around 14/0800 UTC. Solar wind speed slowly and
unsteadily decreased afterwards. The phi angle was variable between
sectors.

While the nature of what transpired in the solar wind this reporting
period is highly speculative and uncertain, density signatures and
temperature profiles also corroborate transient arrival and passage.

.Forecast...
Analysis suggests the transient influences from 14 May may be from
an unobserved, earlier CME, and may not be the early arrival of the
CME events from late on 10 May. Because of the uncertainty involved from
what transpired on 14 May and what was originally anticipated, the solar
wind environment is still expected to become enhanced and disturbed
again on day one (15 May) with the anticipated arrival of the CME events
from late on 10 May. Later on day two (16 May) another CME observed on
12 May is expected to arrive, further enhancing solar wind parameters.
Early on day three (17 May), yet another CME that took place on 13 May,
is expected to effect the environment and cause another disturbance in
the solar wind field.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field responded with storm levels up to G3 (Strong)
levels in reaction to the disturbed and enhanced solar wind environment
from 14/0300-0900 UTC. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active
afterwards in response to the variable, but still enhanced solar wind
state.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a
chance for G2 (Moderate) levels on day one (15 May) in reaction to CME
effects. Day two (16 May) is likely to respond with storm levels up to
G2, with a chance for G3 (Strong) due to expected reactions from another
CME. Day three (17 may) is likely to experience up to G1 storm levels,
with continuing chance for G2 conditions in response to yet another CME.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2019 May 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2019 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2019

            May 15     May 16     May 17
00-03UT        4          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          4          5 (G1)
06-09UT        4          3          4     
09-12UT        5 (G1)     3          3     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     4          3     
15-18UT        4          5 (G1)     3     
18-21UT        4          6 (G2)     2     
21-00UT        3          5 (G1)     2     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely May 15 and May 17
due to anticipated CME arrival. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is
likely May 16 due to anticipated CME arrival.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2019

              May 15  May 16  May 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2019

              May 15        May 16        May 17
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Lead Time: 39.67 hour(s)
Difference: -9.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (GSFC) on 2019-05-15T00:30Z
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Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand