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ESDF (1)

Electron Storm Duration Forecaster

Model Description

Model produces probabilistic prediction of the intensity and duration of space weather events based on historical and real-time data from NOAA GOES > 2 MeV electron data. Our model produces alerts when electron flux crosses threshold corresponding to 1, 2, 4 and 6 events per year and notifies users when each threshold is crossed. Model uses Gaussian Process + Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler as well as ARMAX approaches to make predictions.

Model Figure(s) :

Model Inputs Description

Electron GOES >2 MeV flux, optionally solar wind parameters

Model Outputs Description

Event start, event duration, flux threshold crossed, probability of crossing next threshold

Model Caveats

Change Log

Model Acknowledgement/Publication Policy (if any)

Model Domains:

Space Weather Impacts:

Phenomena :

Simulation Type(s):

Temporal Dependence Possible? (whether the code results depend on physical time?)

Model is available at?

Source code of the model is publicly available?

CCMC Model Status (e.g. onboarding, use in production, retired, only hosting output, only source is available):

Code Language:

Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):

Contacts :

Acknowledgement/Institution :

Relevant Links :

Publications :

Model Access Information :

Linked to Other Spase Resource(s) (example: another SimulationModel) :

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement