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SEPForecast (2)

Model Description

SEPForecast provides a prediction of the probability for an SEP event to occur near Earth following the real-time observation of an X-ray flare and estimates the most likely impact in terms of proton peak flux if such an event would occur. Alerts are provided for proton storms with E>10 MeV and E>60 MeV in the form of a risk level, combining the probability and expected impact. The predictions are based on a statistical analysis of SEP events and their parent solar activity during Solar Cycle 23 (see Dierckxsens et al. 2015 in the publication list). The input parameters are the flare intensity and longitude location, as well as the CME speed and width, if an observed CME can be associated with the flare, and if a GLE is observed or not.

Model Figure(s) :

Model Inputs Description

SEPForecast uses the following input sources:
- Flare peak intensity from Flaremail (SIDC) alerts which are based on GOES X-ray data (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/sidc-S112a-federated)
- Flare longitude location from Solar Demon (SIDC) based on SDO/AIA 94 QKL data (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/sidc-S127-federated
- CME width and speed from CACTus (SIDC) based on LASCO image sequences (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/sidc-S111-federated/),
- GLE occurrence from the NKUA GLE Alert++ System (Athens Neutron Monitor Station of National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, https://swe.ssa.esa.int/anemos-federated)

Model Outputs Description

SEPForecast provides the following output:
- Probability for >10 MeV & >60 MeV proton events near Earth
- Expected peak flux for >10 MeV & >60 MeV proton events near Earth

Model Caveats

Alerts are based on the available information at the time an M or X class flare is detected (minimum peak X-ray flux intensity threshold is M1) and are subsequently updated if more information becomes available.

Change Log

SEPForecast is a re-implementation of the COMESEP SEPForecast module as a stand-alone tool. The COMESEP alert system will be retired in Q1/2026 due to a combination of outdated technology and the obsolescence of the geomagnetic alert module due to the discontinuation of one of the upstream data processing tools. The new re-implementation of SEPForecast (v2.1) features the following notable changes compared to the SEPForecast module in the COMESEP Alert System (v1.0):
- 13/03/2025 (v2.0): Update to the data ingestion methodology, migration to a new database system, upgrade from Python 2 to 3, bug fixes,
- 14/05/2025 (v2.1): Adjustments to the input processing to account for the removal of recalibration factors for GOES16+ SXR data in 2020.

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Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement