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WSA-Enlil-at-SWPC (3)

Wang-Sheeley-Arge - Enlil Solar Wind Prediction Model at SWPC

Model Description

WSA-Enlil is a large-scale, physics-based numerical model of the inner heliosphere used by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) to provide 1-4 day advance forecasts of solar wind structures and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that can cause geomagnetic storms. The model combines two sub-models:

Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA): a semi-empirical near-Sun model that uses photospheric magnetic field observations (primarily from the GONG network) to generate global solar wind 
solutions in the solar corona.

Enlil: a 3-D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical model that simulates the propagation of solar wind and CMEs through the inner heliosphere.


WSA provides input boundary conditions for Enlil, which then computes the quasi-steady ambient solar wind and transient CME disturbances propagating toward Earth and other locations such as STEREO spacecraft. The model predicts solar wind parameters including density, velocity, and magnetic field to assess potential impacts on geomagnetic storms, satellite drag, GPS navigation, power grids, and communications systems.

Model Figure(s) :

Model Inputs Description

Photospheric magnetic field synoptic maps from the GONG network, combined over one solar rotation, providing input for WSA. CME parameters derived from coronagraph imagery, including timing, location, direction, and speed, characterize CMEs injected into the modeled solar wind.

Model Outputs Description

Hourly and higher cadence predictions of solar wind plasma parameters (density, velocity, temperature) and magnetic field at multiple locations including Earth (L1) and spacecraft positions such as STEREO A. Outputs include 3-D solar wind structures, CME propagation, and time series of predicted solar wind conditions for forecast intervals typically around 3 to 5 days.

Model Caveats

The accuracy of model outputs heavily depends on the quality of input magnetic maps and the characterization of CMEs.
The WSA-Enlil model represents CMEs as cone-shaped structures, which may not fully capture the complex, asymmetric nature of real CMEs.
The prediction horizon is limited by the spatial domain of the model and the inherent variability of the solar wind.
CME parameters are approximations derived from coronagraph observations and may not reflect the full complexity of CME structures.
Therefore, when interpreting model predictions, it is important to consider these input uncertainties and simplifications inherent in the modeling approach.

Change Log

SWPC WSA-Enlil Version 1.0

Date: December 13, 2011
Deployment: Initial implementation on NCEP’s Central Computing System
Components:
  
WSA v2.2 (driven by GONG mrbqs synoptic maps)
      
Enlil v2.6

SWPC WSA-Enlil Version 2.0

Date: May 28, 2019
Deployment: NCEP’s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS)
Model Updates:
  
Enlil v2.6 → v2.9e
      
Ambient retuning: amb=a3b2 → amb=a8b1
  

SWPC WSA-Enlil Version 2.1

Date: December 9, 2019
Deployment: WCOSS
Model Updates:
  
Planetary ephemerides extended through end of 2030
  

SWPC WSA-Enlil Version 3.0

Date: April 4, 2023
Deployment: WCOSS2
Model Updates:
  
WSA v2.2 → WSA v5.4
    
Implemented zeropoint-corrected GONG mrzqs synoptic maps
    
Implemented run-on-demand capability for CME runs, retiring bi-hourly executions
    
Adopted single (00Z) daily ambient run
    
Changed data acquisition point from Earth to L1, replacing evo.earth.nc with evo.l1.nc
  

Model Acknowledgement/Publication Policy (if any)

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Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement