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A-EFFort (1.0)

Athens Effective Solar Flare Forecasting

Model Description 

A-EFFort is a flare prediction model that works by calculating a single parameter (Beff) from magnetic field data.  Values of Beff, aka the effective connected magnetic field strength, are translated into flare probabilities using elements of a Bayesian analysis and Laplace's rule of succession. The model returns four exceedance thresholds for flares (M1+, M5+, X1+, X5+).  Probability of flaring in each threshold is calculated for all active regions in the +/- 70 degree longitudinal area of the solar disk.  These probabilities can be combined to give a full disk probability.  The model includes a custom, automated active-region identification tool.  This makes the model a fully automated flare forecasting tool.

Model Figure(s) :

Model Inputs Description 

Latest SDO/HMI full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms. Uses an algorithm to find active regions, calculate Bz, and use that to calculate Beff, which is a proxy for magnetic free energy and magnetic helicity in the coronal region above the photospheric active region.  

NOAA Solar Region Summary (SRS) information that is used to assign NOAA active region numbers to the service’s identified active regions.

Model Outputs Description 

24-hour probability of flaring in 4 regimes:  M1.0+, M5.0+, X1.0+, X5.0+
These are refreshed precisely every 3 hours (UTC 00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09:00, 12:00, 15:00, 18:00, 21:00).

Model Caveats 


	
	
	
	
Change Log
		
	

	

	
	 
	
Model Acknowledgement/Publication Policy (if any)
		
	

	

	
	
	
Model Domains:
		
	

	
		Solar

	
	
	
Space Weather Impacts:
		
	

	
		Ionosphere variability (navigation, communications)

	
		Atmosphere variability (satellite/debris drag)

	
	
	
Phenomena :

	
		Solar_Flares

	

	
Simulation Type(s):
		
	

	
		Empirical

	
		
	
Temporal Dependence Possible? (whether the code results depend on physical time?)
		
	

		false

		
    
Model is available at? 
    	
	

		CCMC

		
	
Source code of the model is publicly available?

		false

		
	 
CCMC Model Status (e.g. onboarding, use in production, retired, only hosting output, only source is available): 
    	
	

		resultOnly

	
	
Code Language: 
		
	

		


	
Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):

	
		Sun

	
	
	

		Contacts
		
		:
	

	
		Manolis.Georgoulis, ModelDeveloper 
		

	
		M.Leila.Mays, ModelHostContact 
		

	
		Christopher.Light, ModelHostContact 
		

	

	

		Acknowledgement/Institution
		
		:
	

	

	
	
	

		Relevant Links
		
		:
	

	

	

		Publications
		
		:
	

	
		
  • 
		
			
				Quantitative Forecasting of Major Solar Flares
			
			
			
		
		
    • 
	
		
  • 
		
			
				MAGNETIC ENERGY AND HELICITY BUDGETS IN THE ACTIVE-REGION SOLAR CORONA. II. NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE APPROXIMATION
			
			
			
		
		
    • 
	
		
  • 
		
			
				Toward an Efficient Prediction of Solar Flares: Which Parameters, and How?
			
			
			
		
		
    • 
	

	
    
		Model Access Information
		
		:
	
    
	
		Access URL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=606&l_1=95&t_1=384&w_1=1721&h_1=865&s_1=0  
    
		
		Access URL Name: Continuous/RT Run (Flare Scoreboard)
    
		
		Repository ID: spase://CCMC/Repository/NASA/GSFC/CCMC
    
		Availability: online
    
		AccessRights: OPEN
    
		Format: HTML
    
		Encoding: None
    		  
		
    
	
	
	
    
		Linked to Other Spase Resource(s) (example: another SimulationModel)
		
		:
	
    
	
	
	


            		
    
    
    
    
        
            




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