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AMOS (v1)

Automatic McIntosh-based Occurrence probability of Solar activity

Model Description

The Automatic McIntosh-based Occurrence probability of Solar activity (AMOS) model is designed for probabilities of C, M, and X-class flares from each active region and on solar disk. 

The AMOS uses McIntosh sunspot group classes for classifying active regions (ARs), which are included in solar region summary (SRS) data provided by NOAA/SWPC. In this system, each McIntosh sunspot class is classified into three groups by its area change: Decrease, Steady, and Increase. The area change of ARs can be a proxy of magnetic flux emergence or cancellation, which are one of the main triggering mechanism for solar flares. Historical flare occurrence rates are calculated by the number of flares divided by the number of ARs for a given McIntosh class using the GOES and SRS data from 1996 to 2010.

The input parameters of this model are SRS data for two days. The output parameters are probabilities of C, M, and X-class flares for a given AR and on the disk. The prediction window is next 24 hours.

Model Figure(s) :

Model Inputs Description

Solar Region Summary from NOAA SWPC  ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/ (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-region-summary)

Model Outputs Description

For each active region: C-class probability,  M-class probability, X-class probability
For entire solar disk (total): C-class probability, M-class probability, X-class probability

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Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement