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HESPERIA_REleASE (v20190101)

High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration

Model Description

The HESPERIA Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (RE-leASE) model uses the fact that near relativistic electrons (1 MeV electrons travel at 95% of the speed of light) travel faster than ions (30 MeV protons travel at 25% of the speed of light) to predict the proton flux by using the actual electron flux and the increase of the electron flux in the last 30, 60, or 90 minutes. The original REleASE model (http://costep2.nascom.nasa.gov) was developed by Posner et al. (2007) and uses realtime electron flux measurements (0.51 MeV) from the Electron Proton Helium Instrument (EPHIN) onboard the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) to make forecasts of the expected proton flux. Within the HESPERIA project of the Horizon 2020 project of the European Union coordinated by Dr. Olga Malandraki (National Observatory of Athens), real-time near-relativistic electron measurements (175-315 keV) obtained by the Electron, Proton, Alpha Monitor (EPAM) experiment onboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) were utilized and the HESPERIA REleASE model was created expanding the original REleASE model. This was vital since currently ACE/EPAM has 16-20 hours/day of real-time coverage with a 5-min time resolution and SOHO/EPHIN has 4 hours/day of real-time coverage with a 1-min time resolution.

The whole HESPERIA REleASE model is written in Python. The HESPERIA REleASE model produces two forecasts: one based on relativistic electron inputs from SOHO/EPHIN and one based on near-relativistic electron data by ACE/EPAM for two energy proton channels 15.839.8 MeV and 28.250.1 MeV. Forecasts are produced with a lead time of 30, 60, and 90 minutes. The HESPERIA RELeASE model does not depend on front-sided information to predict SEPs, and therefore can capture some portion of SEPs related to back-sided activity.

Model Inputs Description

The model uses real-time electron flux measurements from ACE/EPAM and SOHO/EPHIN. 

Model Outputs Description

The HESPERIA RELeASE model produces two forecasts: one based inputs from SOHO/EPHIN and one based on ACE/EPAM electron data for two energy channels 15.839.8 MeV and 28.250.1 MeV.  Forecasts are produced with a lead time of 30, 60, and 90 minutes.

Model Caveats

The following sentences and acknowledgements shall appear inline where the HESPERIA RELeASE tool is presented and also when the HESPERIA RELeASE tool is cited, mentioned as well as when the relevant results are presented, cited and mentioned: 
"The HESPERIA RELeASE tool is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 637324. NASA acknowledgements to: Christian-Albrechts-Universitt zu Kiel, Germany and National Observatory of Athens, IAASARS, Greece, HESPERIA Project (HORIZON 2020, European Union)."

Moreover, the logo of the HESPERIA project as well as the European Union (EU) emblem (official flag of the EU) will be displayed in due prominence in all these occasions in proper image file format to be provided by NOA.

Any commercial use of the HESPERIA REleASE SEP forecasting results by NASA/CCMC will be possible only after signature of a separate agreement between NASA/CCMC, the National Observatory of Athens and the Christian-Albrechts Universities eu Kiel, Germany.

Change Log


	
	
	

Model Domains:

Heliosphere.Inner_Heliosphere

Space Weather Impacts:

Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)

Phenomena :

Simulation Type(s):

Empirical

Temporal Dependence Possible? true

Hosted at CCMC? true

Code Language: Python

Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):

Heliosphere.Inner

Contacts :

Olga.Malandraki, ModelDeveloper
Patrick.Kuehl, ModelDeveloper
Arik.Posner, ModelDeveloper
Michail.Karavolos, TechnicalContact

Acknowledgement/Institution :

National Observatory of Athens, IAASARS, Greece
Christian-Albrechts-Universitt zu Kiel, Germany
HESPERIA Project (HORIZON 2020, European Union)

Relevant Links :

Model Website: https://www.hesperia.astro.noa.gr/index.php/results/real-time-prediction-tools/release

Publications :

  • Olga E. Malandraki and Norma B. Crosby, Eds., Solar Particle Radia- tion Storms Forecasting and Analysis. The HESPERIA HORIZON 2020 Project and Beyond., Series: Astrophysics and Space Science Library, ISBN: 978-3-319-60050-5, Springer International Publishing (Cham), vol. 444.
  • Model Access Information :

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    NASA Official: Maria Kuznetsova