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MAG4 (v20190904)

Magnetogram Forecast

Model Description

Uses line of sight (LOS) or vector magnetograms to measure free energy proxies for each AR on the solar disk.  The free energy proxies include the gradient of the magnetic field across the neutral line, the magnetic shear angle across the neutral line, and others.  These free energy proxies are used to relate to historically derived event rates, and with Poisson statistics, probabilities of the occurrence of >M-class flares, >X-class flare, CMEs, Fast CMEs, and SPEs within the next 24 hours.

Model results from LOS inputs are accurate for 30 heliocentric degrees and 45-60 heliocentric degrees for vector inputs.

There are many forecasts created from MAG4: 

1) 
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_FEr [HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using Line-of-Sight HMI magnetogram. Free energy only. Near-Real-Time data.
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_FEd
definitive data

2) 
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_r [WF-HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using Line-of-Sight HMI magnetogram. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data.
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_d
definitive data
[WF=with flares]


3) 
Shortname: MAG4_SHARP_FE [V-HMI-NRT]
"MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy only. Near-Real-Time data."
Shortname: MAG4_HARP_FE
MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy only. Definitive data. 
[Uses MDI forecast curves]
[V=Vector]
 
4) 
Shortname: MAG4_SHARP [VWF-HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data. 
Shortname: MAG4_HARP
MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Definitive data.
[Uses MDI forecast curves]
[WF=with flares]
[V=Vector]

5) 
Shortname: MAG4_SHARP_HMI [VPLUS-HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data.
Shortname: MAG4_HARP_HMI
MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Definitive data.
[Was labelled VPLUS=Uses new forecast curves computed from HMI]

6) FUTURE: MAG4_LOS_GONG_FE

7) FUTURE:  MAG4_LOS_GONG

Model Inputs Description

Line of sight (LOS) or vector magnetograms.

Model Outputs Description

Full disk and active region flare probabilities, full disk SEP (S1) probability, CME probability, and fast CME probability 

Model Caveats

Valid for LOS magnetogram (scientifically good to 30 heliocentric degrees), or vector (likely good to 45-60 heliocentric degrees).

Change Log


	
	
	

Model Domains:

Solar

Space Weather Impacts:

Ionosphere variability (navigation, communications)
Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)

Phenomena :

Simulation Type(s):

Empirical

Temporal Dependence Possible? (whether the code results depend on physical time?) false

Hosted at CCMC? true

Code Language: IDL

Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):

Sun

Contacts :

Igor.Khazanov, ModelHostContact
David.Falconer, ModelDeveloper

Acknowledgement/Institution :

Relevant Links :

Model Website: https://www.uah.edu/cspar/research/mag4-page

Publications :

  • A tool for empirical forecasting of major flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar particle events from a proxy of active‐region free magnetic energy
  • Prior Flaring as a Complement to Free Magnetic Energy for Forecasting Solar Eruptions
  • MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity
  • Model Access Information :

    Linked to Other Spase Resource(s) (example: another SimulationModel) :

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