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MAG4 (v20190904)

Magnetogram Forecast

Model Description

Uses line of sight (LOS) or vector magnetograms to measure free energy proxies for each AR on the solar disk.  The free energy proxies include the gradient of the magnetic field across the neutral line, the magnetic shear angle across the neutral line, and others.  These free energy proxies are used to relate to historically derived event rates, and with Poisson statistics, probabilities of the occurrence of >M-class flares, >X-class flare, CMEs, Fast CMEs, and SPEs within the next 24 hours.

Model results from LOS inputs are accurate for 30 heliocentric degrees and 45-60 heliocentric degrees for vector inputs.

There are many forecasts created from MAG4: 

1) 
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_FEr [HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using Line-of-Sight HMI magnetogram. Free energy only. Near-Real-Time data.
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_FEd
definitive data

2) 
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_r [WF-HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using Line-of-Sight HMI magnetogram. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data.
Shortname: MAG4_LOS_d
definitive data
[WF=with flares]


3) 
Shortname: MAG4_SHARP_FE [V-HMI-NRT]
"MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy only. Near-Real-Time data."
Shortname: MAG4_HARP_FE
MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy only. Definitive data. 
[Uses MDI forecast curves]
[V=Vector]
 
4) 
Shortname: MAG4_SHARP [VWF-HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data. 
Shortname: MAG4_HARP
MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Definitive data.
[Uses MDI forecast curves]
[WF=with flares]
[V=Vector]

5) 
Shortname: MAG4_SHARP_HMI [VPLUS-HMI-NRT]
MAG4 Using vector SHARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Near-Real-Time data.
Shortname: MAG4_HARP_HMI
MAG4 Using vector HARP tiles from HMI. Free energy with flares. Definitive data.
[Was labelled VPLUS=Uses new forecast curves computed from HMI]

6) FUTURE: MAG4_LOS_GONG_FE

7) FUTURE:  MAG4_LOS_GONG

Model Figure(s) :

Model Inputs Description

Line of sight (LOS) or vector magnetograms.

Model Outputs Description

Full disk and active region flare probabilities, full disk SEP (S1) probability, CME probability, and fast CME probability 

Model Caveats

Valid for LOS magnetogram (scientifically good to 30 heliocentric degrees), or vector (likely good to 45-60 heliocentric degrees).

Change Log


	
	 
	

Model Acknowledgement/Publication Policy (if any)


	
	
	

Model Domains:

Solar

Space Weather Impacts:

Ionosphere variability (navigation, communications)
Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)

Phenomena :

Coronal_Mass_Ejections
Solar_Energetic_Particles
Solar_Flares

Simulation Type(s):

Empirical

Temporal Dependence Possible? (whether the code results depend on physical time?)

false

Model is available at?

CCMC

Source code of the model is publicly available?

false

CCMC Model Status (e.g. onboarding, use in production, retired, only hosting output, only source is available):

production

Code Language:

IDL

Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):

Sun

Contacts :

David.Falconer, ModelDeveloper
Igor.Khazanov, ModelDeveloper

Acknowledgement/Institution :

Relevant Links :

Model Website: https://www.uah.edu/cspar/research/mag4-page
SRAG one-pager description: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/static/files/SEPSB/SEP-one-pager_MAG4.pdf

Publications :

  • A tool for empirical forecasting of major flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar particle events from a proxy of active‐region free magnetic energy
  • Prior Flaring as a Complement to Free Magnetic Energy for Forecasting Solar Eruptions
  • MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity
  • Model Access Information :

    Access URL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=606&l_1=7&t_1=33&w_1=1721&h_1=865&s_1=0
    Access URL Name: Continuous/RT Run (Flare Scoreboard)
    Repository ID: spase://CCMC/Repository/NASA/GSFC/CCMC
    Availability: online
    AccessRights: OPEN
    Format: HTML
    Encoding: None

    Access URL: https://sep.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/probability/
    Access URL Name: Continuous/RT Run (SEP Scoreboard Probability)
    Repository ID: spase://CCMC/Repository/NASA/GSFC/CCMC
    Availability: online
    AccessRights: OPEN
    Format: HTML
    Encoding: None

    Access URL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/sep_scoreboard/mag4_2019/
    Access URL Name: Continuous/RT Run (ISWA data tree)
    Repository ID: spase://CCMC/Repository/NASA/GSFC/CCMC
    Availability: online
    AccessRights: OPEN
    Format: AVI
    Encoding: ASCII

    Linked to Other Spase Resource(s) (example: another SimulationModel) :

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