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SAWS-ASPECS (1.2)Solar Particle Radiation Advanced Warning System - Advanced Solar Particle Events Casting SystemModel DescriptionThe main objective of this activity is to advance the technology development of a Solar Particle Radiation Advanced Warning System (SAWS) which can collate and combine outputs from modules providing forecasts of solar phenomena, solar proton event occurrence and solar proton flux and duration characteristics which can be tailored to the needs of different spacecraft and launch operators. As with precursor activities (e.g. FORSPEF), there shall be 3 core forecasting modules corresponding to: 1. Solar Flare (SF) forecasting 2. Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) onset forecasting 3. Solar Particle Event (SPE) characteristics forecasting This activity shall improve on the precursor developments particularly in terms of the clarity of output forecasts for end users. Forecasts shall be made available through a web interface appropriate for end users and more detail for advanced space weather forecasters. User requirements shall include a derivation of energies and thresholds important for different users and warning levels with the system providing a clear traffic light system for quick look by operators. A thorough validation process shall provide results on the system's forecasting accuracy and shall be used to tailor the modules and the use of different data sources and algorithms for different forecast horizons and SEP energies. Model Figure(s) :Model Inputs DescriptionForecasting mode: Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/HMI observation. Nowcasting mode: Flare module | Soft X-ray (SXR) peak flux and longitude CME module | CME speed and width Flare & CME module | all of the above Model Outputs DescriptionForecasting mode: Probability of Solar Flares for a set of prediction windows ranging from 6h - 72 h, per identified active region (AR) Likelihood of CME (based on the Solar Flare Probability), per identified AR Maximum CME speed per identified AR SEP time profile for the integral energies of interest E>10; E>30; E>100; and E>300 MeV for each prediction window These SEP time profiles, incorporate the predicted probability of SEP occurrence based on the Probability of Solar Flares and the predicted peak flux at 50% and 90% CL. Nowcasting mode: SEP time profiles for the integral energies of interest E>10; E>30; E>100; and E>300 MeV These SEP time profiles, incorporate the predicted probability of SEP occurrence based on (a) solar flare, (b) CME and (c) solar flare & CME characteristics and the corresponding predicted peak flux at 50% and 90% CL for each of the three cases/inputs. ** The predictions of the SEP time profiles evolve wih time, as new data/info are received from the system. Model CaveatsChange LogUpdated Peak Flux calculation module. Updated Validation Toolbox Updated Web-Interface Model Acknowledgement/Publication Policy (if any)Model Domains:SolarHeliosphere.Inner_Heliosphere Space Weather Impacts:Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)Phenomena :Solar_Energetic_ParticlesSimulation Type(s):EmpiricalPhysics-based Temporal Dependence Possible? (whether the code results depend on physical time?)falseModel is available at?CCMCSource code of the model is publicly available?falseCCMC Model Status (e.g. onboarding, use in production, retired, only hosting output, only source is available):resultOnlyCode Language:IDL - PythonRegions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):Heliosphere.InnerSun Contacts :Anastasios.Anastasiadis, GeneralContactAthanasios.Papaioannou, ModelDeveloper George.Vasalos, TechnicalContact M.Leila.Mays, ModelHostContact Acknowledgement/Institution :IAASARSRelevant Links :Project's website: http://tromos.space.noa.gr/aspecs/Tool: http://phobos-srv.space.noa.gr/index.html SRAG one-pager description: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/static/files/SEPSB/SEP-one-pager_ASPECS.pdf Publications :Model Access Information :Access URL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa_data_tree/model/heliosphere/sep_scoreboard/SAWS_ASPECS/1.X/Access URL Name: Continuous/RT Run (ISWA data tree) Repository ID: spase://CCMC/Repository/NASA/GSFC/CCMC Availability: online AccessRights: OPEN Format: HTML Encoding: None Access URL: https://sep.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/intensity/ Access URL Name: Continuous/RT Run (SEP Scoreboard Intensity) Repository ID: spase://CCMC/Repository/NASA/GSFC/CCMC Availability: online AccessRights: OPEN Format: HTML Encoding: None Access URL: https://sep.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/probability/ Access URL Name: Continuous/RT Run (SEP Scoreboard Probability) Repository ID: spase://CCMC/Repository/NASA/GSFC/CCMC Availability: online AccessRights: OPEN Format: HTML Encoding: None Linked to Other Spase Resource(s) (example: another SimulationModel) : |
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement |