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UMASEP (v2.1)

University of Malaga Solar Energetic Particle Model

Model Description

In general, the UMASEP scheme makes use of the lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues an SEP event prediction. UMASEP analyzes soft X-ray, differential and integral proton flux data in order to recognize precursors of five different proton flux situations: well-connected SEP events, poorly-connected SEP events, and "all-clear" situations. 

There are five variations of the UMASEP model:
- UMASEP-10 (Núñez, 2011), for predicting >10 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 15.1 - 21.9 MeV; 
- UMASEP-30 for predicting >30 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 31.6 - 45.7 MeV; 
- UMASEP-50 for predicting >50 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 45.7 - 66.1 MeV;
- UMASEP-100 (Núñez, 2015) for predicting >100 MeV SEP proton events and the SEP fluence for the energy bin 95.6 - 138.3 MeV; 
- HESPERIA UMASEP-500 (Núñez et al, 2017) for predicting GLE and >500 MeV proton events. 

These models correlate X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, they predict the occurrence and peak intensity of SEP events and SEP fluences in the aforementioned energies.

Model Figure(s) :

Model Inputs Description

GOES soft x-ray flux, GOES differential and integral proton flux. 

The temporal cadence of the analyzed input data is 5 minutes in the case of UMASEP-10 and UMASEP-100, and 1 minute in the case of HESPERIA UMASEP-500.

Model Outputs Description

The five models predict SEP/GLE event occurrences. UMASEP-10, UMASEP-30, UMASEP-50 and UMASEP-100 also predict the peak SEP flux (HESPERIA UMASEP_500 does not predict the peak flux). The forecast window of these predictions are: 
7 hours for >10 MeV protons (UMASEP-10), 
6 hours for >30 MeV protons (UMASEP-30), 
5 hours for >50 MeV protons (UMASEP-50), 
3 hours for >100 MeV protons (UMASEP-100),
1 hour for GLE/>500 MeV events (HESPERIA UMASEP-500), and
7 hours for the 15-138 MeV SEP fluence spectrum

Model Caveats

Change Log

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Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement