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UMASEP (v20190101)

University of Malaga Solar Energetic Particle Model

Model Description

In general, the UMASEP scheme makes use of the lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic flux with the particle flux at near-earth.  If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues a SEP prediction. UMASEP analyzes soft X-ray, differential and integral proton flux data in order to recognize precursors of three different proton flux situations: well-connected SEP events, poorly-connected SEP events, and "all-clear" situations. 

There are three variations of the UMASEP model:
UMASEP-10 (Nez et al, 2011), predicting >10 MeV proton events; 
UMASEP-100 (Nez et al, 2015), predicting >100 MeV proton events; 
HESPERIA UMASEP-500 (Nez et al, 2017), predicting >500 MeV proton events/GLEs.

In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, HESPERIA UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, a  >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. 

Model Inputs Description

GOES soft x-ray flux, GOES differential and integral proton flux. 

Model Outputs Description

Peak SEP flux with a forecast window of 7 hours for >10 MeV protons (UMASEP-10), 3 hours for >100 MeV protons (UMASEP-100), and 1 hour for >500 MeV protons (HESPERIA UMASEP-500).

Model Caveats


	
	
	
	

Change Log


	
	
	

Model Domains:

Heliosphere.Inner_Heliosphere

Space Weather Impacts:

Near-earth radiation and plasma environment (aerospace assets functionality)
Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)

Phenomena :

Simulation Type(s):

Empirical

Temporal Dependence Possible? false

Hosted at CCMC? true

Code Language: Java

Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):

Heliosphere.Inner

Contacts :

Marlon.Nez, ModelDeveloper

Acknowledgement/Institution :

Relevant Links :

Publications :

  • Predicting well-connected SEP events from observations of solar soft X-rays and near-relativistic electrons
  • Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events
  • Real-time prediction of the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of >100 MeV solar energetic proton events
  • Model Access Information :

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    NASA Official: Maria Kuznetsova