CCMC Metadata Registry (CMR)
University of Malaga Solar Energetic Particle Model
In general, the UMASEP scheme makes use of the lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues a SEP prediction. UMASEP analyzes soft X-ray, differential and integral proton flux data in order to recognize precursors of three different proton flux situations: well-connected SEP events, poorly-connected SEP events, and "all-clear" situations. There are three variations of the UMASEP model: UMASEP-10 (Núñez et al, 2011), predicting >10 MeV proton events; UMASEP-100 (Núñez et al, 2015), predicting >100 MeV proton events; HESPERIA UMASEP-500 (Núñez et al, 2017), predicting >500 MeV proton events/GLEs. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, HESPERIA UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued.
Model Inputs Description
GOES soft x-ray flux, GOES differential and integral proton flux.
Model Outputs Description
Peak SEP flux with a forecast window of 7 hours for >10 MeV protons (UMASEP-10), 3 hours for >100 MeV protons (UMASEP-100), and 1 hour for >500 MeV protons (HESPERIA UMASEP-500).
Space Weather Impacts:Near-earth radiation and plasma environment (aerospace assets functionality)
Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)
Temporal Dependence Possible? false
Hosted at CCMC? true
Code Language: Java
Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):Heliosphere.Inner
Contacts :Marlon.Núñez, ModelDeveloper
Relevant Links :
Model Access Information :