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UMASEP (v20190101)

University of Malaga Solar Energetic Particle Model

Model Description

In general, the UMASEP scheme makes use of the lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues an SEP event prediction. UMASEP analyzes soft X-ray, differential and integral proton flux data in order to recognize precursors of three different proton flux situations: well-connected SEP events, poorly-connected SEP events, and "all-clear" situations. 

There are three variations of the UMASEP model:
- UMASEP-10 (Nez, 2011), predicting >10 MeV proton events; 
- UMASEP-100 (Nez, 2015), predicting >100 MeV proton events; 
- HESPERIA UMASEP-500 (Nez et al, 2017), predicting GLE and >500 MeV proton events.

These models correlate X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, they predict SEP events in the aforementioned energies.  

Model Inputs Description

GOES soft x-ray flux, GOES differential and integral proton flux. 

The temporal cadence of the analyzed input data is 5 minutes in the case of UMASEP-10 and UMASEP-100, and 1 minute in the case of HESPERIA UMASEP-500.

Model Outputs Description

The three models predict SEP/GLE event occurrences. UMASEP-10 and UMASEP-100 also predict the peak SEP flux (HESPERIA UMASEP_500 does not predict the peak flux). The forecast window of these predictions are: 7 hours for >10 MeV protons (UMASEP-10), 3 hours for >100 MeV protons (UMASEP-100), and 1 hour for GLE/>500 MeV events (HESPERIA UMASEP-500). 

Model Caveats


	
	
	
	

Change Log


	
	
	

Model Domains:

Heliosphere.Inner_Heliosphere

Space Weather Impacts:

Near-earth radiation and plasma environment (aerospace assets functionality)
Solar energetic particles - SEPs (human exploration, aviation safety, aerospace assets functionality)

Phenomena :

Simulation Type(s):

Empirical

Temporal Dependence Possible? true

Hosted at CCMC? true

Code Language: Java

Regions (this is automatically mapped based on model domain):

Heliosphere.Inner

Contacts :

Marlon.Nez, ModelDeveloper

Acknowledgement/Institution :

Relevant Links :

Publications :

  • Predicting well-connected SEP events from observations of solar soft X-rays and near-relativistic electrons
  • Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events
  • Real-time prediction of the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of >100 MeV solar energetic proton events
  • Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV)
  • Model Access Information :

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    NASA Official: Maria Kuznetsova