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CCMC CME Scoreboard

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CCMC CME Scoreboard

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team within the COSPAR International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT).

Developed by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), the CME Scoreboard serves as a research-based pre-event forecasting validation platform.

Active CMEs:

No Active CME

Past CMEs:

CME: 2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-13T13:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Faint CME observed to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and unseen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-01-10T14:53Z. The source is a complex eruption associated with a C2.1 flare (S16W04) from AR 14339 peaking at 2026-01-10T19:42Z observed in SDO AIA 131, observed as what is likely two bulk fronts as CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z and CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Following the flare, filament ejecta is observed in SDO AIA 304 traveling S/SW but appearing to mostly fall back onto the disk likely associated with CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z, and that is followed by dimming starting around 2026-01-10T19:57Z centered around S27W02 observed in SDO AIA 193 likely associated with this CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-13T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.28 ---- 2026-01-11T01:10Z 60.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T13:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.53 ---- 2026-01-12T16:53Z 20.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T14:35Z 0.87 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-13T14:35Z 0.87 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-10T20:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-13T13:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Thin jet-like CME observed to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and unseen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-01-10T14:53Z. The source is a complex eruption associated with a C2.1 flare (S16W04) from AR 14339 peaking at 2026-01-10T19:42Z observed in SDO AIA 131, observed as what is likely two bulk fronts as CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z and CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Following the flare, filament ejecta is observed in SDO AIA 304 traveling S/SW but appearing to mostly fall back onto the disk likely associated with this CME, and that is followed by dimming starting around 2026-01-10T19:57Z centered around S27W02 observed in SDO AIA 193 likely associated with CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-13T13:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.53 ---- 2026-01-12T16:53Z 20.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T13:11Z -0.53 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-13T13:11Z -0.53 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T21:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Very faint possible CME front visible only in difference imagery to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2. The source is believed to be a C3.4 class flare from AR 13443 (S14W04) with a very clear dimming structure and associated EUV wave heavily deflected to the N/NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193. This deflection may be due to coronal holes nearby.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-13T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-01-09T19:00Z 83.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T06:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-13T06:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Bright partial halo CME to the S and SE in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, fully covered by the daily data gap in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a massive, very complex filament eruption S and E of Active Region 14334 (S19E03), potentially involving two erupting filaments (one directly south of this active region and another more to the east. This eruption starts after ~2026-01-08T16Z to the SE of disk center and is associated with the long-duration C5.6 flare in this active region peaking at 2026-01-08T17:30Z. It is seen in SDO AIA 304/193 as bright, extensive post-eruptive arcades, a large-area dimming, faint EUV wave and erupting filaments seen in 304. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): Significant shock signature characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT and then staying negative for four hours. Accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s. There is also a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. After 2026-01-10T23:30Z the signature changes to what is likely an arrival of the flux rope, with smooth rotation of components and Bz turning northward for over four hours. B total increases from 7 to over 15 nT and density drops. It is possible that the initial shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from another CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-10T20:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.77 ---- 2026-01-09T00:00Z 43.60 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T18:42Z (-10.57h, +8.14h) 23.10 25.0 2026-01-09T02:00Z 41.60 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-11T03:15Z 7.65 ---- 2026-01-09T03:10Z 40.43 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-10T17:37Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -1.98 ---- 2026-01-09T10:21Z 33.25 ---- ELEvo Christian Moestl (ASWO) Detail
2026-01-11T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 8.40 70.0 2026-01-09T10:35Z 33.02 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T04:40Z (-6.09h, +4.26h) 9.07 50.0 2026-01-09T16:53Z 26.72 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-10T21:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.72 ---- 2026-01-09T17:42Z 25.90 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T21:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.72 ---- 2026-01-09T17:42Z 25.90 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T06:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) 10.40 70.0 2026-01-10T01:15Z 18.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2026-01-11T02:21Z 6.75 53.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.83333 - 7.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-11T03:15Z 7.65 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: [Tentatively closed as arrival] Faint CME seen (mostly in difference imagery) to the E in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1, covered by the data gap in STEREO A. Source: eruption N of AR 14336 (S10E33), seen as dark moving ejecta in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2026-01-08T14:48Z and centered initially ~(N03E30). There could be eastward deflection of this CME because of a small coronal hole just west of its source. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was possibly swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME:2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. The shock is followed after 2026-01-10T23:30Z by a flux rope. It is possible that this complex arrival signature also incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T15:48Z, although there is no clear indication of it.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-11T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 14.40 ---- 2026-01-09T02:52Z 40.73 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T21:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.72 ---- 2026-01-09T17:42Z 25.90 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T03:39Z 8.05 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-11T03:39Z 8.05 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This event is more narrow as observed by STEREO A COR2 imagery, while a wider feature is observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is an eruption and C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) starting around 2026-01-08T05:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Ejecta can be observed deflecting southeast of the eruption site, possibly due to a nearby coronal hole west of AR 14334. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was likely swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME: CME: 2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. It is possible that this shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T05:53Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-10T10:15Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.35 ---- 2026-01-08T13:45Z 53.85 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T09:55Z (-6.0h, +10.0h) -9.68 93.0 2026-01-08T19:32Z 48.07 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -1.60 30.0 2026-01-09T10:19Z 33.28 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T04:59Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -14.62 ---- 2026-01-09T10:24Z 33.20 ---- ELEvo Christian Moestl (ASWO) Detail
2026-01-10T10:47Z -8.82 61.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-10T10:05Z -9.52 61.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-07T06:08:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1. CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The CME may be partially obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1. The likely source is an eruption with dimming seen south of AR 14334, around S30E25, starting around 2026-01-07T03:52Z as best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also seen from the point of view of STEREO A 195, closer to the southeast limb.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-09T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-01-07T19:45Z 50.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T04:49Z ---- ---- 2026-01-08T01:00Z 51.82 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-10T01:24Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-10T01:24Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-07T04:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1. CME first seen to the ESE in STEREO A COR2 starting around 2026-01-07T04:23Z. The exact start time is somewhat unclear due to imagery quality. This CME is also seen in to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The leading edge of the CME is extremely faint and difficult to see in white light imagery. The source of this CME is likely associated with one of a series of eruptions from AR 14334. The eruption beginning around 2026-01-07T03:00Z associated with a C2.9 flare from AR 14334 (S15E18) that peaked at 2026-01-07T03:54Z is the most likely source candidate. The eruptive behavior, including some filamentary structure, and flare can be see across SDO wavelengths but are best seen in SDO AIA 131 and SDO AIA 304. There appears to be some deflection possibly due to the southern extension of coronal hole W of AR 14334 that was centered approximately around S18E05 at the time of the eruption.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-09T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-01-07T15:01Z 50.98 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-09T18:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-09T18:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-08T04:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.67
CME Note: Wide CME first seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-06T02:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2026-01-05T17:23Z to 2026-01-06T04:23Z. The source of this event is a C2.2 class flare and associated eruption from Active Region 14334 (S15E33) which began at approx. 2026-01-06T00:15Z. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Field line opening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to 14nT at 2026-01-08T16:24Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~375 km/s at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to ~430 at 17:12Z. Throughout this signature an increase in temperature is observed from ~25,000 K to ~60,000 K, with density increasing from ~4p/cc to ~18 p/cc.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-08T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.05 ---- 2026-01-06T15:03Z 37.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-09T15:11Z (-7.04h, +8.21h) 34.23 50.0 2026-01-07T02:35Z 26.37 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-08T11:46Z 6.82 ---- 2026-01-07T04:00Z 24.95 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-09T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 27.05 50.0 2026-01-07T09:32Z 19.42 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-08T22:59Z 18.03 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-08T21:53Z 16.93 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-04T20:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: CME first seen to the NNE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-01T19:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is currently not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap which began at 2026-01-01T04:38Z. The source of this event is a C6.2 flare from AR 14324 (N24E01) seen in SDO AIA 131 peaking at 2026-01-01T17:59Z. A wide region of dimming and field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, followed by post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 131 and 193. | Arrival Information: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 5.7nT to 9.5nT , B_x: approx. -2.6nT to -1.8nT , B_y: -4.6nT to -6.6nT , B_z: -1.5nT to -6.2nT) along with increases in temperature (approx. 52kK to 182kK), density (approx. 0.23 p/cc to 2.36 p/cc) and speed (approx. 425km/s to 502km/s). This IPS signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-01-01T19:36Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-04T15:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.40 ---- 2026-01-01T22:31Z 70.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-04T21:23Z (-13.68h, +10.93h) 0.70 50.0 2026-01-02T01:36Z 67.08 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-04T14:09Z (-9.0h, +8.0h) -6.53 87.0 2026-01-02T01:47Z 66.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-05T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 4.32 35.0 2026-01-02T10:47Z 57.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) Detail
2026-01-04T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -8.68 50.0 2026-01-02T17:18Z 51.38 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2026-01-04T15:23Z -5.30 ---- 2026-01-02T18:00Z 50.68 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-04T17:12Z -3.48 55.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-04T15:20Z -5.35 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

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