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CCMC CME Scoreboard

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CCMC CME Scoreboard

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team within the COSPAR International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT).

Developed by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), the CME Scoreboard serves as a research-based pre-event forecasting validation platform.

Active CMEs:

CME: 2026-02-03T19:00:00-CME-001
CME Note: This CME is visible to the west/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is visible to the northwest in STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap that ends at 2026-02-04T03:23Z. The source may be related to a slow-to-lift off filament eruption starting around 2026-02-03T15:00Z which spans ~N20W30 to ~N00W45 as seen in SDO AIA 193/304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed in SDO AIA 193 imagery around this time which appears to move westward.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-02-07T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-02-04T14:13Z 73.78 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) Detail
2026-02-07T16:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-02-07T16:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-02-02T03:12:00-CME-001
CME Note: CME/outflow seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1 and (most clearly) in STEREO A COR2 following and overlapping with CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. (Its start in LASCO might be somewhat different). This is the most distinct outflow front among the multiple follow ups to CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. It is especially distinct in STEREO A COR2, as it seems to have a higher latitude than the CME: 2026-02-02T00:48Z. Its source is not clear but could be the long-duration M5.2 flare from AR 4366 (N13E35) peaking at 2026-02-02T02:51Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-02-06T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-02-02T18:59Z 77.02 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-02-05T17:55Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-02-05T17:55Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-02-05T11:50Z (-4.62h, +7.35h) ---- 50.0 2026-02-02T21:02Z 62.80 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

Past CMEs:

CME: 2026-02-02T00:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-02-04T14:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Complex CME consisting of multiple overlapping fronts the first of which is first seen to the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-02-02T00:48Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The start of this event is covered in STEREO A COR2 by a data gap which began at 2026-02-01T14:53Z and ended at 2026-02-02T03:23Z but after the data gap at least one lobe of this CME is seen to the ENE in STEREO A COR2 in multiple timestamps. The source of this event is an X8.1 flare from Active Region 14366 (N13E35) that peaked at 2026-02-01T23:57Z and possibly also the following X2.8 flare from the same AR peaking at 2026-02-02T00:36Z. The flares are visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 131. Two bouts of filament ejecta are also seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304 in association with these flares, the earlier ejecta more northwardly directed and seemingly deflecting towards the west, and the ejecta after the second flare which is not as northward as the initial one. Arrival at L1: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 10nT at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 22nT at 2026-02-04T14:24Z. Solar wind speeds increase from ~300 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:20Z to 400 km/s at 2026-02-04T14:25Z. A subsequent increase in temperature is observed from 36,000 K to 212,000 K, with an increase in density also observed around this time from 1 p/cc to 13 p/cc.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-02-05T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 32.67 ---- 2026-02-02T03:47Z 58.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-02-05T12:00Z 21.67 ---- 2026-02-02T08:55Z 53.42 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-02-05T09:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 18.67 ---- 2026-02-02T12:24Z 49.93 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2026-02-05T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 15.67 75.0 2026-02-02T14:25Z 47.92 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-02-04T20:31Z 6.18 ---- 2026-02-02T14:30Z 47.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-02-04T21:32Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 7.20 ---- 2026-02-02T14:50Z 47.50 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-02-05T01:09Z (-6.15h, +13.267h) 10.82 86.0 2026-02-02T23:51Z 38.48 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-02-05T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 24.67 ---- 2026-02-03T04:20Z 34.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2026-02-05T06:15Z 15.92 62.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.71429 - 5.57143
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-02-05T06:00Z 15.67 75.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-02-04T20:11Z (-8.25h, +6.99h) 5.85 25.0 2026-02-03T13:57Z 24.38 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

CME: 2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-19T18:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.67
CME Note: Halo CME first seen to the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 as a halo in later frames. This CME was initially covered by a routine scheduled downlink data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 which began at 2026-01-18T18:00Z but LASCO data became fully available later. The source of this CME is a long duration X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20), which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, with some possible contribution from Active Region 14345 (S16E27). This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131 and the associated eruption is seen as a wide region of dimming and field line opening in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, as well as very high and large area post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 304 and 193. Ejecta is seen in SDO AIA 193 and in STEREO A EUV 304 imagery (southwardly directed off the SE limb as seen from STEREO A). STEREO A 195 also sees it as a large opening of field lines close to the limb, around the equator. Arrival at L1: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~6nT at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to ~86nT at 2026-01-19T18:59Z. The solar wind data is likely contaminated due to a known issue with the ACE spacecraft during solar energetic particle events, however solar wind data returns around 2026-01-19T21:18Z measuring ~1000 km/s. Density increased from ~3 p/cc at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to 29 p/cc at 2026-01-19T19:02Z. Temperature observed an increase from ~65,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:15Z to ~900,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:23Z. A large southern coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on 2026-01-15 was located to the south and west of the eruptive source for CME: 2026-01-18T18:09Z (S15E20), and while no distinct coronal high speed stream signature was identified within this arrival signature the location and size of the coronal hole may likely have influenced this CME as it traveled to and arrived at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-20T02:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 7.72 ---- 2026-01-18T21:39Z 21.27 Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-19T22:32Z (-7.73h, +5.44h) 3.62 66.0 2026-01-18T21:48Z 21.12 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-19T17:35Z (-6.48h, +4.22h) -1.33 33.0 2026-01-18T21:48Z 21.12 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-19T19:53Z (-2.5h, +7.5h) 0.97 ---- 2026-01-18T23:50Z 19.08 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) Detail
2026-01-19T20:59Z (-4.99h, +3.69h) 2.07 66.0 2026-01-19T00:19Z 18.60 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-19T16:17Z (-4.13h, +2.83h) -2.63 33.0 2026-01-19T00:19Z 18.60 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-19T22:00Z 3.08 80.0 2026-01-19T02:22Z 16.55 Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 9.0
 Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2026-01-20T05:00Z 10.08 ---- 2026-01-19T02:49Z 16.10 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC KSWC (KASA) Detail
2026-01-20T01:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 6.45 ---- 2026-01-19T06:06Z 12.82 Max Kp Range: 9.0 - 9.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-20T04:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 9.08 60.0 2026-01-19T06:35Z 12.33 Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2026-01-20T15:31Z 20.60 ---- 2026-01-19T08:35Z 10.33 Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 9.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-20T02:46Z (-5.3h, +5.3h) 7.85 100.0 2026-01-19T09:28Z 9.45 ---- ELEvo Maike Bauer (ASWO) Detail
2026-01-20T01:00Z 6.08 ---- 2026-01-19T10:51Z 8.07 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-20T01:50Z (-1.71h, +1.95h) 6.92 100.0 2026-01-19T11:30Z 7.42 Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 8.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-20T07:11Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 12.27 85.0 2026-01-19T14:42Z 4.22 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 Other (SIDC) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-20T01:22Z 6.45 66.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 8.5
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-20T01:06Z 6.18 69.2222 --- --- Max Kp Range: 7.125 - 8.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-10T20:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-13T13:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Faint CME observed to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and unseen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-01-10T14:53Z. The source is a complex eruption associated with a C2.1 flare (S16W04) from AR 14339 peaking at 2026-01-10T19:42Z observed in SDO AIA 131, observed as what is likely two bulk fronts as CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z and CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Following the flare, filament ejecta is observed in SDO AIA 304 traveling S/SW but appearing to mostly fall back onto the disk likely associated with CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z, and that is followed by dimming starting around 2026-01-10T19:57Z centered around S27W02 observed in SDO AIA 193 likely associated with this CME. Arrival signature: Characterized by a small, gradual enhancement in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 2nT to 7nt , B_x: approx. 2nT to 5nT , B_y: approx. 1nT to -6nT , B_z: approx. -4nT to 1nT) as well as minor increases in temperature, density and velocity components. Following the minor enhancement, magnetic field components remained smooth and separated, and density slightly decreased, indicating the likely passage of a small flux rope.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-13T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.28 ---- 2026-01-11T01:10Z 60.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T13:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.53 ---- 2026-01-12T16:53Z 20.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T14:35Z 0.87 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-13T14:35Z 0.87 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-10T20:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-13T13:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Thin jet-like CME observed to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1 and unseen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 2026-01-10T14:53Z. The source is a complex eruption associated with a C2.1 flare (S16W04) from AR 14339 peaking at 2026-01-10T19:42Z observed in SDO AIA 131, observed as what is likely two bulk fronts as CME: 2026-01-10T20:36Z and CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Following the flare, filament ejecta is observed in SDO AIA 304 traveling S/SW but appearing to mostly fall back onto the disk likely associated with this CME, and that is followed by dimming starting around 2026-01-10T19:57Z centered around S27W02 observed in SDO AIA 193 likely associated with CME: 2026-01-10T20:48Z. Arrival signature: Characterized by a small, gradual enhancement in magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 2nT to 7nt , B_x: approx. 2nT to 5nT , B_y: approx. 1nT to -6nT , B_z: approx. -4nT to 1nT) as well as minor increases in temperature, density and velocity components. Following the minor enhancement, magnetic field components remained smooth and separated, and density slightly decreased, indicating the likely passage of a small flux rope.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-13T13:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.53 ---- 2026-01-12T16:53Z 20.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T13:11Z -0.53 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-13T13:11Z -0.53 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T21:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Very faint possible CME front visible only in difference imagery to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2. The source is believed to be a C3.4 class flare from AR 13443 (S14W04) with a very clear dimming structure and associated EUV wave heavily deflected to the N/NW as seen in SDO/AIA 193. This deflection may be due to coronal holes nearby.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-13T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-01-09T19:00Z 83.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-13T06:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-13T06:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Bright partial halo CME to the S and SE in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, fully covered by the daily data gap in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a massive, very complex filament eruption S and E of Active Region 14334 (S19E03), potentially involving two erupting filaments (one directly south of this active region and another more to the east. This eruption starts after ~2026-01-08T16Z to the SE of disk center and is associated with the long-duration C5.6 flare in this active region peaking at 2026-01-08T17:30Z. It is seen in SDO AIA 304/193 as bright, extensive post-eruptive arcades, a large-area dimming, faint EUV wave and erupting filaments seen in 304. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): Significant shock signature characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT and then staying negative for four hours. Accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s. There is also a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. After 2026-01-10T23:30Z the signature changes to what is likely an arrival of the flux rope, with smooth rotation of components and Bz turning northward for over four hours. B total increases from 7 to over 15 nT and density drops. It is possible that the initial shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from another CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-10T20:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.77 ---- 2026-01-09T00:00Z 43.60 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T18:42Z (-10.57h, +8.14h) 23.10 25.0 2026-01-09T02:00Z 41.60 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-11T03:15Z 7.65 ---- 2026-01-09T03:10Z 40.43 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-10T17:37Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -1.98 ---- 2026-01-09T10:21Z 33.25 ---- ELEvo Christian Moestl (ASWO) Detail
2026-01-11T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 8.40 70.0 2026-01-09T10:35Z 33.02 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T04:40Z (-6.09h, +4.26h) 9.07 50.0 2026-01-09T16:53Z 26.72 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-10T21:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.72 ---- 2026-01-09T17:42Z 25.90 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T21:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.72 ---- 2026-01-09T17:42Z 25.90 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T06:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) 10.40 70.0 2026-01-10T01:15Z 18.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2026-01-11T02:21Z 6.75 53.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.83333 - 7.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-11T03:15Z 7.65 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: [Tentatively closed as arrival] Faint CME seen (mostly in difference imagery) to the E in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1, covered by the data gap in STEREO A. Source: eruption N of AR 14336 (S10E33), seen as dark moving ejecta in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2026-01-08T14:48Z and centered initially ~(N03E30). There could be eastward deflection of this CME because of a small coronal hole just west of its source. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was possibly swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME:2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. The shock is followed after 2026-01-10T23:30Z by a flux rope. It is possible that this complex arrival signature also incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T15:48Z, although there is no clear indication of it.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-11T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 14.40 ---- 2026-01-09T02:52Z 40.73 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T21:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.72 ---- 2026-01-09T17:42Z 25.90 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-11T03:39Z 8.05 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-11T03:39Z 8.05 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This event is more narrow as observed by STEREO A COR2 imagery, while a wider feature is observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is an eruption and C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) starting around 2026-01-08T05:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Ejecta can be observed deflecting southeast of the eruption site, possibly due to a nearby coronal hole west of AR 14334. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was likely swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME: CME: 2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. It is possible that this shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T05:53Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-10T10:15Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.35 ---- 2026-01-08T13:45Z 53.85 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T09:55Z (-6.0h, +10.0h) -9.68 93.0 2026-01-08T19:32Z 48.07 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -1.60 30.0 2026-01-09T10:19Z 33.28 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T04:59Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -14.62 ---- 2026-01-09T10:24Z 33.20 ---- ELEvo Christian Moestl (ASWO) Detail
2026-01-10T10:47Z -8.82 61.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-10T10:05Z -9.52 61.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-07T06:08:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1. CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and the SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The CME may be partially obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1. The likely source is an eruption with dimming seen south of AR 14334, around S30E25, starting around 2026-01-07T03:52Z as best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also seen from the point of view of STEREO A 195, closer to the southeast limb.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-09T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-01-07T19:45Z 50.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-10T04:49Z ---- ---- 2026-01-08T01:00Z 51.82 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-10T01:24Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-10T01:24Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-07T04:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1. CME first seen to the ESE in STEREO A COR2 starting around 2026-01-07T04:23Z. The exact start time is somewhat unclear due to imagery quality. This CME is also seen in to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The leading edge of the CME is extremely faint and difficult to see in white light imagery. The source of this CME is likely associated with one of a series of eruptions from AR 14334. The eruption beginning around 2026-01-07T03:00Z associated with a C2.9 flare from AR 14334 (S15E18) that peaked at 2026-01-07T03:54Z is the most likely source candidate. The eruptive behavior, including some filamentary structure, and flare can be see across SDO wavelengths but are best seen in SDO AIA 131 and SDO AIA 304. There appears to be some deflection possibly due to the southern extension of coronal hole W of AR 14334 that was centered approximately around S18E05 at the time of the eruption.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-09T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2026-01-07T15:01Z 50.98 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-09T18:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-09T18:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-06T02:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-08T04:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.67
CME Note: Wide CME first seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-06T02:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2026-01-05T17:23Z to 2026-01-06T04:23Z. The source of this event is a C2.2 class flare and associated eruption from Active Region 14334 (S15E33) which began at approx. 2026-01-06T00:15Z. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. Field line opening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to 14nT at 2026-01-08T16:24Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~375 km/s at 2026-01-08T04:57Z to ~430 at 17:12Z. Throughout this signature an increase in temperature is observed from ~25,000 K to ~60,000 K, with density increasing from ~4p/cc to ~18 p/cc.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-08T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.05 ---- 2026-01-06T15:03Z 37.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-09T15:11Z (-7.04h, +8.21h) 34.23 50.0 2026-01-07T02:35Z 26.37 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-08T11:46Z 6.82 ---- 2026-01-07T04:00Z 24.95 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-09T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 27.05 50.0 2026-01-07T09:32Z 19.42 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-08T22:59Z 18.03 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-08T21:53Z 16.93 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-04T20:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME first seen to the NNE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-01T19:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is currently not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap which began at 2026-01-01T04:38Z. The source of this event is a C6.2 flare from AR 14324 (N24E01) seen in SDO AIA 131 peaking at 2026-01-01T17:59Z. A wide region of dimming and field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, followed by post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 131 and 193. | Arrival Information: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 5.7nT to 9.5nT , B_x: approx. -2.6nT to -1.8nT , B_y: -4.6nT to -6.6nT , B_z: -1.5nT to -6.2nT) along with increases in temperature (approx. 52kK to 182kK), density (approx. 0.23 p/cc to 2.36 p/cc) and speed (approx. 425km/s to 502km/s). This IPS signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-01-01T19:36Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2026-01-04T15:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.40 ---- 2026-01-01T22:31Z 70.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-04T21:23Z (-13.68h, +10.93h) 0.70 50.0 2026-01-02T01:36Z 67.08 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2026-01-04T14:09Z (-9.0h, +8.0h) -6.53 87.0 2026-01-02T01:47Z 66.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) Detail
2026-01-05T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 4.32 35.0 2026-01-02T10:47Z 57.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) Detail
2026-01-04T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -8.68 50.0 2026-01-02T17:18Z 51.38 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2026-01-04T15:23Z -5.30 ---- 2026-01-02T18:00Z 50.68 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2026-01-04T17:12Z -3.48 55.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2026-01-04T15:20Z -5.35 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Median of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

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