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CME arrival time predictions from the research community:
The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:
Active CMEs:
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CME: 2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001
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CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-07T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-04T23:10Z |
53.83
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-07T01:19Z
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----
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95.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-06T21:38Z
(-5.77h, +4.95h)
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----
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95.0
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2025-01-05T03:54Z |
41.73
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
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Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001
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CME Note: CME associated with a long duration C9.3-class flare near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W55) that begins at approximately 2025-01-04T14:30Z, seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It can be seen across all GOES SUVI wavelengths, but is particularly prominent in GOES SUVI 284.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-07T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
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----
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2025-01-04T23:10Z |
53.83
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-07T11:37Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-07T18:14Z
(-4.51h, +4.47h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-04T23:14Z |
67.00
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
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Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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CME: 2025-01-04T13:25:00-CME-001
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CME Note: CME first visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2025-01-04T13:25Z. This CME is only visible for a couple faint frames in SOHO LASCO C3 and is covered by a data gap in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is most likely an X1.8 flare from AR 3947 that peaked at 2025-01-04T12:48Z. The flare and some ejected material can be seen in GOES SUVI 94, 131, 171, 195, 284, and 304 starting around 2025-01-04T12:30Z
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2025-01-04T20:25Z |
89.58
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-08T14:00Z
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----
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----
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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Past CMEs:
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CME: 2025-01-01T02:24:00-CME-001
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| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-03T23:33Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint CME with a fuzzy front (multiple fronts) to the SW. A possible considered source could be a significant eruption near AR 3939 (S17W15) starting around 2025-01-01T00:30Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. An alternative source is the movement of field lines close to/on the SW limb seen in SUVI 195 after 2025-01-01T01:30Z, possibly from Active Region 3932 (S15W77).
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
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-1.55
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50.0
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2025-01-02T11:00Z |
36.55
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
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Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2025-01-03T22:00Z
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-1.55
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50.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
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