CME Scoreboard: Previous Year Page
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Past CMEs From 2015:
|
CME: 2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-31T00:02Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: CME is associated with a M1.8 class flare from AR 2473.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-12-30T18:26Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.60
|
----
|
2015-12-28T17:45Z |
54.28
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-30T10:00Z
|
-14.03
|
----
|
2015-12-28T21:14Z |
50.80
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-30T21:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-3.03
|
80.0
|
2015-12-28T23:14Z |
48.80
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-30T16:00Z
(-4.0h, +9.0h)
|
-8.03
|
90.0
|
2015-12-29T01:00Z |
47.03
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-30T20:13Z
(-9.43h, +8.53h)
|
-3.82
|
100.0
|
2015-12-29T03:54Z |
44.13
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-31T03:39Z
|
3.62
|
----
|
2015-12-30T11:45Z |
12.28
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-30T18:53Z
|
-5.15
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.6
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-19T15:27Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: This entry is for two CME in close succession, starting on 2015-12-16T09:24 UT and 2015-12-16T14:24 UT in LASCO C2.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-12-19T01:17Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-14.17
|
----
|
2015-12-16T21:15Z |
66.20
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Karin Muglach (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-19T04:14Z
(-8.3h, +8.17h)
|
-11.22
|
75.0
|
2015-12-17T00:30Z |
62.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Karin Muglach (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-18T21:00Z
|
-18.45
|
----
|
2015-12-17T06:30Z |
56.95
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-18T22:00Z
|
-17.45
|
----
|
2015-12-17T07:18Z |
56.15
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-19T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-11.45
|
90.0
|
2015-12-17T11:08Z |
52.32
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-19T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-9.45
|
70.0
|
2015-12-17T11:13Z |
52.23
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-18T22:32Z
|
-16.92
|
----
|
2015-12-17T22:35Z |
40.87
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-12-19T01:17Z
|
-14.17
|
78.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 5.8
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T19:24Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME associated with a second filament eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 02UT.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-11-18T11:49Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-7.58
|
----
|
2015-11-16T18:28Z |
48.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T12:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
-7.40
|
80.0
|
2015-11-16T18:50Z |
48.57
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T10:27Z
(-4.52h, +5.62h)
|
-8.95
|
75.0
|
2015-11-16T20:27Z |
46.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T10:00Z
|
-9.40
|
----
|
2015-11-17T01:21Z |
42.05
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T13:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-6.40
|
4.0
|
2015-11-17T08:41Z |
34.72
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - --
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T10:00Z
|
-9.40
|
----
|
2015-11-17T13:08Z |
30.27
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T13:57Z
|
-5.45
|
----
|
2015-11-17T14:49Z |
28.58
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T16:05Z
|
-3.32
|
----
|
2015-11-17T14:49Z |
28.58
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-18T12:09Z
|
-7.25
|
53.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-11-09T13:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-11-11T23:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-11-10T05:23Z |
41.62
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-11T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2015-11-10T10:24Z |
33.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-12T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2015-11-10T13:42Z |
40.30
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-11T21:58Z
(-7.5h, +5.5h)
|
----
|
54.0
|
2015-11-10T16:49Z |
29.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-11T22:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2015-11-10T17:15Z |
28.75
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-11T18:53Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-11-10T22:49Z |
20.07
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-11T18:39Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-11-10T22:52Z |
19.78
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-12T02:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-11-12T14:09Z |
-12.15
|
----
|
Other (ips.gov.au)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-11T22:33Z
|
----
|
58.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-11-07T08:40Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
15.10
|
----
|
2015-11-04T21:33Z |
44.02
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yihua Zheng (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
10.43
|
50.0
|
2015-11-04T21:39Z |
43.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Yihua Zheng (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T02:26Z
(-8.2h, +7.78h)
|
8.87
|
100.0
|
2015-11-05T01:30Z |
40.07
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Karin Muglach (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T15:00Z
|
21.43
|
----
|
2015-11-05T03:22Z |
38.20
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T13:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
19.43
|
90.0
|
2015-11-05T06:35Z |
34.98
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T14:30Z
(-3.5h, +5.5h)
|
20.93
|
80.0
|
2015-11-05T09:47Z |
31.78
|
----
|
DBM
|
Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T00:00Z
|
6.43
|
----
|
2015-11-05T13:08Z |
28.43
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-06T22:25Z
|
4.85
|
----
|
2015-11-05T22:06Z |
19.47
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T03:06Z
|
9.53
|
----
|
2015-11-05T22:09Z |
19.42
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-11-07T06:34Z
|
13.00
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.25 - 5.4
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T18:26Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Relatively faint partial halo CME associated with long duration C4.5 flare from AR2434.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-10-25T01:00Z
|
6.57
|
----
|
2015-10-22T11:23Z |
55.05
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-24T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-6.43
|
20.0
|
2015-10-22T12:27Z |
53.98
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-24T11:49Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.62
|
----
|
2015-10-22T18:40Z |
47.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-24T21:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
2.57
|
70.0
|
2015-10-23T00:30Z |
41.93
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-24T15:59Z
|
-2.45
|
----
|
2015-10-23T22:30Z |
19.93
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-24T17:09Z
|
-1.28
|
45.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-09-30T09:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-10-04T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2015-09-30T16:09Z |
97.85
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-04T09:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-09-30T23:28Z |
81.53
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-04T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-10-01T07:20Z |
76.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-04T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
10.0
|
2015-10-01T07:29Z |
87.52
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-10-04T15:30Z
|
----
|
10.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-09-20T18:30:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-09-22T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
15.0
|
2015-09-20T21:53Z |
44.12
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-22T19:24Z
(-3.38h, +1.5h)
|
----
|
14.0
|
2015-09-21T02:45Z |
40.65
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-22T21:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-09-21T12:30Z |
32.50
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-23T03:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2015-09-21T15:40Z |
35.33
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-22T21:21Z
|
----
|
16.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-09-18T04:30:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-20T05:27Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -75
Dst min. time: 2015-09-20T16:00Z
CME Note: Geomagnetic activity is likely due to the mix with a coronal hole high speed stream
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-09-20T12:00Z
|
6.55
|
----
|
2015-09-18T17:10Z |
36.28
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-20T17:14Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
11.78
|
----
|
2015-09-18T17:44Z |
35.72
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-20T21:00Z
|
15.55
|
----
|
2015-09-19T00:30Z |
28.95
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-21T09:00Z
|
27.55
|
25.0
|
2015-09-19T06:15Z |
23.20
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-21T07:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
25.55
|
15.0
|
2015-09-19T11:43Z |
17.73
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-20T22:50Z
|
17.38
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-09-04T19:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-08T01:28Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: filament eruption
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-09-09T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
34.53
|
30.0
|
2015-09-05T09:14Z |
64.23
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-08T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
18.53
|
----
|
2015-09-05T23:16Z |
50.20
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Alexandra Wold (SWRC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-10T02:00Z
|
48.53
|
40.0
|
2015-09-06T07:39Z |
41.82
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-10T23:00Z
|
69.53
|
40.0
|
2015-09-07T04:20Z |
21.13
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-09-09T20:15Z
|
42.78
|
36.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-08-22T07:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-08-24T06:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2015-08-22T23:57Z |
30.85
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-24T06:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2015-08-23T05:45Z |
24.25
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-25T03:14Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2015-08-23T10:42Z |
40.53
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-24T03:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-08-23T12:30Z |
14.50
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-24T12:39Z
(-13.48h, +13.22h)
|
----
|
91.0
|
2015-08-23T12:31Z |
24.13
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-24T11:08Z
|
----
|
70.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 5.6
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-08-21T10:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: associated with M1.4 flare
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-08-26T07:10Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2015-08-22T11:54Z |
91.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-25T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2015-08-22T16:23Z |
67.62
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-25T15:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2015-08-22T18:00Z |
69.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-25T19:23Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-08-14T09:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Filament eruption, below AR 2399. CME may have arrived late on 19 Aug, however this is unclear.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-08-18T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
10.0
|
2015-08-14T22:01Z |
85.98
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-18T05:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-08-16T15:15Z |
37.75
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-19T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2015-08-17T01:57Z |
58.05
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-18T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2015-08-17T19:30Z |
22.50
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-18T17:45Z
|
----
|
23.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-08-15T07:43Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: CME associated with prominence eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 13:42Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-08-16T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
20.28
|
20.0
|
2015-08-13T13:14Z |
42.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-16T09:09Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
25.43
|
----
|
2015-08-13T13:49Z |
41.90
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-16T03:00Z
|
19.28
|
----
|
2015-08-13T15:20Z |
40.38
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-16T06:02Z
(-7.0h, +6.66h)
|
22.32
|
91.0
|
2015-08-13T18:35Z |
37.13
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-16T00:01Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
16.30
|
70.0
|
2015-08-14T12:55Z |
18.80
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-08-16T04:26Z
|
20.72
|
60.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.2
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T15:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival time for the CME is a little uncertain since it was possible embedded with a CIR preceding a CH HSS
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-07-22T20:00Z
|
4.50
|
----
|
2015-07-19T17:23Z |
70.12
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-07-22T21:00Z
|
5.50
|
70.0
|
2015-07-20T07:12Z |
56.30
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-07-22T15:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-0.50
|
----
|
2015-07-20T12:30Z |
51.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-07-22T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.50
|
----
|
2015-07-20T15:26Z |
48.07
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-07-22T18:30Z
|
3.00
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-27T03:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: From AR12371. Associated with M7.9 flare.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-06-26T16:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-11.50
|
----
|
2015-06-25T10:51Z |
40.65
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-27T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.50
|
----
|
2015-06-25T13:21Z |
38.15
|
----
|
DBM
|
Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-27T05:00Z
|
1.50
|
----
|
2015-06-25T15:30Z |
36.00
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-28T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
22.50
|
----
|
2015-06-25T16:45Z |
34.75
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-27T15:18Z
(-12.2h, +9.3h)
|
11.80
|
58.0
|
2015-06-25T21:33Z |
29.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Karin Muglach (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-27T15:00Z
|
11.50
|
----
|
2015-06-26T17:26Z |
10.07
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-27T11:28Z
|
7.97
|
58.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-27T17:00Z
|
13.50
|
----
|
2015-06-27T01:10Z |
2.33
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-06-22T18:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-24T12:57Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: from AR 12371
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-06-24T23:00Z
|
10.05
|
----
|
2015-06-23T01:23Z |
35.57
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-24T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-0.95
|
75.0
|
2015-06-23T02:41Z |
34.27
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-24T18:18Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.35
|
----
|
2015-06-23T02:46Z |
34.18
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Zak Titus (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-24T15:00Z
(-5.0h, +5.0h)
|
2.05
|
100.0
|
2015-06-23T06:52Z |
30.08
|
----
|
DBM
|
Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-24T19:10Z
(-6.85h, +9.66h)
|
6.22
|
100.0
|
2015-06-23T12:45Z |
24.20
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-24T21:00Z
|
8.05
|
----
|
2015-06-23T13:30Z |
23.45
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-24T15:00Z
|
2.05
|
----
|
2015-06-24T01:35Z |
11.37
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-24T17:38Z
|
4.68
|
91.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.66667 - 7.6
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:59Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -195
Dst min. time: 2015-06-23T05:00Z
CME Note: From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-06-22T17:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-0.98
|
90.0
|
2015-06-21T10:26Z |
31.55
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T21:00Z
|
3.02
|
----
|
2015-06-22T01:00Z |
16.98
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T21:43Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
3.73
|
100.0
|
2015-06-22T03:25Z |
14.57
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T19:03Z
(-5.15h, +3.33h)
|
1.07
|
100.0
|
2015-06-22T03:32Z |
14.45
|
Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 8.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T23:00Z
(+7.0h)
|
5.02
|
100.0
|
2015-06-22T06:28Z |
11.52
|
----
|
DBM
|
Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T22:50Z
(-5.0h, +8.0h)
|
4.85
|
----
|
2015-06-22T09:20Z |
8.65
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Christian Moestl (Graz) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T14:00Z
|
-3.98
|
----
|
2015-06-22T15:23Z |
2.60
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T19:48Z
|
1.82
|
97.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.5 - 7.8
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T04:51Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -44
Dst min. time: 2015-06-22T17:00Z
CME Note: Filament eruption below AR12371. Faint front in C3
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-06-22T21:00Z
|
16.15
|
----
|
2015-06-19T17:24Z |
59.45
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T06:04Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.22
|
----
|
2015-06-19T17:50Z |
59.02
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T08:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
3.15
|
30.0
|
2015-06-19T20:25Z |
56.43
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T13:43Z
(-8.0h, +8.5h)
|
8.87
|
100.0
|
2015-06-19T23:56Z |
52.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Zak Titus (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-21T04:00Z
|
-24.85
|
----
|
2015-06-20T02:00Z |
50.85
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-23T02:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
21.15
|
60.0
|
2015-06-20T12:28Z |
40.38
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-22T09:07Z
|
4.27
|
63.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T15:40Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Clear indication of CME in AIA 171 and 193: opening/rising field lines starting around 16:30Z, followed by dimmings, two-ribbon flare, outflows. The CME was fast and bright, and also had a 360-degree halo/asymmetric shock structure.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-06-21T02:20Z
(-4.53h, +7.12h)
|
-13.33
|
31.0
|
2015-06-19T01:19Z |
62.35
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-21T21:00Z
|
5.33
|
----
|
2015-06-19T01:23Z |
62.28
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-21T09:26Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.23
|
31.0
|
2015-06-19T01:58Z |
61.70
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Barbara Thompson (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-21T08:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-7.67
|
40.0
|
2015-06-19T11:51Z |
51.82
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-21T16:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
0.33
|
70.0
|
2015-06-19T14:15Z |
49.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-21T11:21Z
|
-4.32
|
43.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 5.4
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-06-09T20:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-12T12:19Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Associated with an eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 around 2015-06-09T20:00Z from AR 2364. Also connected to the C2.8 flare also from AR 2364 around the same time.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-06-12T11:21Z
|
-0.97
|
95.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 6.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-12T12:19Z
|
0.00
|
----
|
2015-06-10T18:22Z |
41.95
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Aleksandre Taktakishvili (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-06-12T10:24Z
(-8.0h, +10.0h)
|
-1.92
|
95.0
|
2015-06-10T18:26Z |
41.88
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Aleksandre Taktakishvili (GSFC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-05-13T18:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME arrival time difficult to determine.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-05-17T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2015-05-14T13:54Z |
70.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-17T14:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-05-15T20:45Z |
41.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-17T13:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-05-06T17:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-05-10T00:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: CME arrival time very unclear, could be later in the day
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-05-10T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
12.00
|
----
|
2015-05-07T12:30Z |
59.50
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-09T19:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.42
|
----
|
2015-05-07T15:58Z |
56.03
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-09T18:21Z
(-1.83h, +1.72h)
|
-5.65
|
9.0
|
2015-05-08T01:47Z |
46.22
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-10T00:38Z
|
0.63
|
9.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-05-02T21:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-05-06T00:50Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: large filament eruption
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-05-07T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
41.17
|
----
|
2015-05-03T03:53Z |
68.95
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-06T16:00Z
|
15.17
|
----
|
2015-05-04T00:30Z |
48.33
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-06T20:40Z
|
19.83
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-05-06T04:00Z
|
3.17
|
60.0
|
2015-05-05T13:36Z |
11.23
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-04-06T20:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-04-10T00:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-04-09T13:00Z
|
-11.00
|
----
|
2015-04-07T07:21Z |
64.65
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-09T18:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-6.00
|
----
|
2015-04-07T12:30Z |
59.50
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-09T08:18Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-15.70
|
----
|
2015-04-07T14:48Z |
57.20
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-09T07:37Z
(-8.0h, +8.76h)
|
-16.38
|
100.0
|
2015-04-07T21:44Z |
50.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-09T14:30Z
|
-9.50
|
----
|
2015-04-08T16:14Z |
31.77
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-09T12:17Z
|
-11.72
|
100.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-04-09T01:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: CME is associated with part of a filament eruption on the SE area close to AR 2320. Eruption can be seen in SDO 193/304.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-04-08T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-25.17
|
----
|
2015-04-05T12:30Z |
84.67
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-07T01:12Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-47.97
|
----
|
2015-04-05T15:41Z |
81.48
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Dhanesh Krishnarao (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-06T23:57Z
(-6.17h, +12.78h)
|
-49.22
|
97.0
|
2015-04-05T21:11Z |
75.98
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-07T21:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-28.17
|
40.0
|
2015-04-06T06:50Z |
66.33
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-04-07T11:32Z
|
-37.63
|
68.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-03-17T04:05Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
Dst min. in nT: -223
Dst min. time: 2015-03-17T23:00Z
CME Note: This CME is connected to the long duration C9.1 flare with start at 01:15 and peak at 02:13, flare is centered in AR 2297, large part of the filament W of AR is also erupting, bright post-flare arcade later in AR 2297
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-03-17T18:00Z
|
13.92
|
----
|
2015-03-15T07:22Z |
44.72
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-17T18:08Z
(-15.0h, +26.3h)
|
14.05
|
55.0
|
2015-03-15T07:49Z |
44.27
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
|
COMESEP
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-16T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-10.08
|
----
|
2015-03-15T12:05Z |
40.00
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-17T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +6.0h)
|
7.92
|
60.0
|
2015-03-15T17:30Z |
34.58
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-17T11:39Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.57
|
----
|
2015-03-15T19:20Z |
32.75
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Dhanesh Krishnarao (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-17T11:48Z
(-5.3h, +7.7h)
|
7.72
|
100.0
|
2015-03-16T02:54Z |
25.18
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-17T10:55Z
|
6.83
|
71.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.4
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-03-10T00:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: eruption visible in AIA during flare from 2297. Note another CME follows this one, starting at 2015-03-10T03:36Z, also from the same active region. This entry is for both CMEs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-03-13T01:55Z
(-11.0h, +21.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2015-03-10T10:49Z |
63.10
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
|
COMESEP
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-11T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2015-03-10T12:18Z |
31.70
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-12T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2015-03-10T14:43Z |
39.28
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-12T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-03-10T17:24Z |
42.60
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-12T03:11Z
(-7.0h, +6.2h)
|
----
|
37.5
|
2015-03-10T18:31Z |
32.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-12T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2015-03-11T10:14Z |
31.77
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-12T10:11Z
|
----
|
42.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-03-02T22:43:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-03-03T23:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2015-03-03T07:15Z |
15.75
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-04T12:00Z
|
----
|
40.0
|
2015-03-03T07:20Z |
28.67
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-04T05:30Z
|
----
|
45.0
|
--- |
--- |
----
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-02-28T11:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-03-04T00:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2015-03-01T03:30Z |
68.50
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-03-04T00:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-02-09T23:35:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-02-12T12:00Z
(-9.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2015-02-11T08:30Z |
27.50
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-02-12T12:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2015-01-12T15:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2015-01-15T08:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-01-12T21:06Z |
58.90
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-01-14T20:27Z
(-7.0h, +7.8h)
|
----
|
75.0
|
2015-01-13T05:08Z |
39.32
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-01-14T19:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-01-13T09:45Z |
33.25
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-01-15T15:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-01-13T12:30Z |
50.50
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Leila Mays (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2015-01-15T02:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2015-01-13T21:40Z |
28.33
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2015-01-15T03:17Z
|
----
|
75.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
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|
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