CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMCSWRCCME ScoreBoard

SW ScoreBoard Login

Space Weather ScoreBoard

Past CMEs From 2015:

CME: 2015-12-28T12:39:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-31T00:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: CME is associated with a M1.8 class flare from AR 2473.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-12-30T18:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.60 ---- 2015-12-28T17:45Z 54.28 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-30T10:00Z -14.03 ---- 2015-12-28T21:14Z 50.80 Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-30T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -3.03 80.0 2015-12-28T23:14Z 48.80 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-30T16:00Z (-4.0h, +9.0h) -8.03 90.0 2015-12-29T01:00Z 47.03 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-12-30T20:13Z (-9.43h, +8.53h) -3.82 100.0 2015-12-29T03:54Z 44.13 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-31T03:39Z 3.62 ---- 2015-12-30T11:45Z 12.28 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-12-30T18:53Z -5.15 90.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-12-16T09:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-12-19T15:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: This entry is for two CME in close succession, starting on 2015-12-16T09:24 UT and 2015-12-16T14:24 UT in LASCO C2.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-12-19T01:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -14.17 ---- 2015-12-16T21:15Z 66.20 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-19T04:14Z (-8.3h, +8.17h) -11.22 75.0 2015-12-17T00:30Z 62.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-18T21:00Z -18.45 ---- 2015-12-17T06:30Z 56.95 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-12-18T22:00Z -17.45 ---- 2015-12-17T07:18Z 56.15 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-19T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -11.45 90.0 2015-12-17T11:08Z 52.32 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-19T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -9.45 70.0 2015-12-17T11:13Z 52.23 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-12-18T22:32Z -16.92 ---- 2015-12-17T22:35Z 40.87 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-12-19T01:17Z -14.17 78.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 5.8
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T19:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME associated with a second filament eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 02UT.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-11-18T11:49Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -7.58 ---- 2015-11-16T18:28Z 48.93 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-18T12:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h) -7.40 80.0 2015-11-16T18:50Z 48.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-11-18T10:27Z (-4.52h, +5.62h) -8.95 75.0 2015-11-16T20:27Z 46.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-18T10:00Z -9.40 ---- 2015-11-17T01:21Z 42.05 Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-18T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -6.40 4.0 2015-11-17T08:41Z 34.72 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - --
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-18T10:00Z -9.40 ---- 2015-11-17T13:08Z 30.27 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-18T13:57Z -5.45 ---- 2015-11-17T14:49Z 28.58 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-11-18T16:05Z -3.32 ---- 2015-11-17T14:49Z 28.58 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-11-18T12:09Z -7.25 53.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-11-09T13:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-11-11T23:00Z ---- ---- 2015-11-10T05:23Z 41.62 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-11T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 50.0 2015-11-10T10:24Z 33.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-12T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2015-11-10T13:42Z 40.30 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-11T21:58Z (-7.5h, +5.5h) ---- 54.0 2015-11-10T16:49Z 29.15 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-11T22:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 70.0 2015-11-10T17:15Z 28.75 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-11-11T18:53Z ---- ---- 2015-11-10T22:49Z 20.07 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-11-11T18:39Z ---- ---- 2015-11-10T22:52Z 19.78 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-11-12T02:00Z ---- ---- 2015-11-12T14:09Z -12.15 ---- Other (ips.gov.au) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-11T22:33Z ---- 58.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-11-07T08:40Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) 15.10 ---- 2015-11-04T21:33Z 44.02 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yihua Zheng (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-07T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 10.43 50.0 2015-11-04T21:39Z 43.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Yihua Zheng (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-07T02:26Z (-8.2h, +7.78h) 8.87 100.0 2015-11-05T01:30Z 40.07 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-07T15:00Z 21.43 ---- 2015-11-05T03:22Z 38.20 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-07T13:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 19.43 90.0 2015-11-05T06:35Z 34.98 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-11-07T14:30Z (-3.5h, +5.5h) 20.93 80.0 2015-11-05T09:47Z 31.78 ---- DBM Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2015-11-07T00:00Z 6.43 ---- 2015-11-05T13:08Z 28.43 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-11-06T22:25Z 4.85 ---- 2015-11-05T22:06Z 19.47 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-11-07T03:06Z 9.53 ---- 2015-11-05T22:09Z 19.42 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-11-07T06:34Z 13.00 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.25 - 5.4
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T18:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Relatively faint partial halo CME associated with long duration C4.5 flare from AR2434.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-10-25T01:00Z 6.57 ---- 2015-10-22T11:23Z 55.05 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-10-24T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -6.43 20.0 2015-10-22T12:27Z 53.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-10-24T11:49Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.62 ---- 2015-10-22T18:40Z 47.77 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Anna Chulaki (CCMC) Detail
2015-10-24T21:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 2.57 70.0 2015-10-23T00:30Z 41.93 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-10-24T15:59Z -2.45 ---- 2015-10-23T22:30Z 19.93 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2015-10-24T17:09Z -1.28 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-09-30T09:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-10-04T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2015-09-30T16:09Z 97.85 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-10-04T09:00Z ---- ---- 2015-09-30T23:28Z 81.53 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-10-04T12:00Z ---- ---- 2015-10-01T07:20Z 76.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-10-04T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 10.0 2015-10-01T07:29Z 87.52 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-10-04T15:30Z ---- 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-09-20T18:30:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-09-22T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 15.0 2015-09-20T21:53Z 44.12 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 7.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-09-22T19:24Z (-3.38h, +1.5h) ---- 14.0 2015-09-21T02:45Z 40.65 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-09-22T21:00Z ---- ---- 2015-09-21T12:30Z 32.50 Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-09-23T03:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 20.0 2015-09-21T15:40Z 35.33 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-09-22T21:21Z ---- 16.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-09-18T04:30:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-20T05:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -75
Dst min. time: 2015-09-20T16:00Z
CME Note: Geomagnetic activity is likely due to the mix with a coronal hole high speed stream
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-09-20T12:00Z 6.55 ---- 2015-09-18T17:10Z 36.28 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-09-20T17:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 11.78 ---- 2015-09-18T17:44Z 35.72 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Anna Chulaki (CCMC) Detail
2015-09-20T21:00Z 15.55 ---- 2015-09-19T00:30Z 28.95 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-09-21T09:00Z 27.55 25.0 2015-09-19T06:15Z 23.20 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-09-21T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 25.55 15.0 2015-09-19T11:43Z 17.73 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-09-20T22:50Z 17.38 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.75
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-09-04T19:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-08T01:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: filament eruption
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-09-09T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 34.53 30.0 2015-09-05T09:14Z 64.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-09-08T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 18.53 ---- 2015-09-05T23:16Z 50.20 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Alexandra Wold (SWRC) Detail
2015-09-10T02:00Z 48.53 40.0 2015-09-06T07:39Z 41.82 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-09-10T23:00Z 69.53 40.0 2015-09-07T04:20Z 21.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-09-09T20:15Z 42.78 36.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.75
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-08-22T07:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-08-24T06:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2015-08-22T23:57Z 30.85 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-24T06:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) ---- 70.0 2015-08-23T05:45Z 24.25 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-08-25T03:14Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 50.0 2015-08-23T10:42Z 40.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-24T03:00Z ---- ---- 2015-08-23T12:30Z 14.50 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-24T12:39Z (-13.48h, +13.22h) ---- 91.0 2015-08-23T12:31Z 24.13 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-24T11:08Z ---- 70.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 5.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-08-21T10:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: associated with M1.4 flare
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-08-26T07:10Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2015-08-22T11:54Z 91.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-25T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2015-08-22T16:23Z 67.62 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-25T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2015-08-22T18:00Z 69.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-08-25T19:23Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-08-14T09:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Filament eruption, below AR 2399. CME may have arrived late on 19 Aug, however this is unclear.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-08-18T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 10.0 2015-08-14T22:01Z 85.98 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-18T05:00Z ---- ---- 2015-08-16T15:15Z 37.75 Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-19T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2015-08-17T01:57Z 58.05 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-18T18:00Z (-12.0h, +8.0h) ---- 40.0 2015-08-17T19:30Z 22.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-08-18T17:45Z ---- 23.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-08-15T07:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: CME associated with prominence eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 13:42Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-08-16T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 20.28 20.0 2015-08-13T13:14Z 42.48 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-16T09:09Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 25.43 ---- 2015-08-13T13:49Z 41.90 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-16T03:00Z 19.28 ---- 2015-08-13T15:20Z 40.38 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-16T06:02Z (-7.0h, +6.66h) 22.32 91.0 2015-08-13T18:35Z 37.13 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-08-16T00:01Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 16.30 70.0 2015-08-14T12:55Z 18.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-08-16T04:26Z 20.72 60.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.2
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T15:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival time for the CME is a little uncertain since it was possible embedded with a CIR preceding a CH HSS
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-07-22T20:00Z 4.50 ---- 2015-07-19T17:23Z 70.12 Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-07-22T21:00Z 5.50 70.0 2015-07-20T07:12Z 56.30 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-07-22T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -0.50 ---- 2015-07-20T12:30Z 51.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-07-22T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.50 ---- 2015-07-20T15:26Z 48.07 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-07-22T18:30Z 3.00 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-06-25T08:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-27T03:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: From AR12371. Associated with M7.9 flare.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-06-26T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -11.50 ---- 2015-06-25T10:51Z 40.65 Max Kp Range: -- - 8.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-27T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 6.50 ---- 2015-06-25T13:21Z 38.15 ---- DBM Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2015-06-27T05:00Z 1.50 ---- 2015-06-25T15:30Z 36.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-06-28T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 22.50 ---- 2015-06-25T16:45Z 34.75 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-27T15:18Z (-12.2h, +9.3h) 11.80 58.0 2015-06-25T21:33Z 29.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Karin Muglach (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-27T15:00Z 11.50 ---- 2015-06-26T17:26Z 10.07 Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-27T11:28Z 7.97 58.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.75
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2015-06-27T17:00Z 13.50 ---- 2015-06-27T01:10Z 2.33 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail

CME: 2015-06-22T18:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-24T12:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: from AR 12371
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-06-24T23:00Z 10.05 ---- 2015-06-23T01:23Z 35.57 Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-24T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -0.95 75.0 2015-06-23T02:41Z 34.27 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-24T18:18Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 5.35 ---- 2015-06-23T02:46Z 34.18 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Zak Titus (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-24T15:00Z (-5.0h, +5.0h) 2.05 100.0 2015-06-23T06:52Z 30.08 ---- DBM Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2015-06-24T19:10Z (-6.85h, +9.66h) 6.22 100.0 2015-06-23T12:45Z 24.20 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-24T21:00Z 8.05 ---- 2015-06-23T13:30Z 23.45 Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-06-24T15:00Z 2.05 ---- 2015-06-24T01:35Z 11.37 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2015-06-24T17:38Z 4.68 91.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.66667 - 7.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -195
Dst min. time: 2015-06-23T05:00Z
CME Note: From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-06-22T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -0.98 90.0 2015-06-21T10:26Z 31.55 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-22T21:00Z 3.02 ---- 2015-06-22T01:00Z 16.98 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-06-22T21:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 3.73 100.0 2015-06-22T03:25Z 14.57 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-22T19:03Z (-5.15h, +3.33h) 1.07 100.0 2015-06-22T03:32Z 14.45 Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 8.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-22T23:00Z (+7.0h) 5.02 100.0 2015-06-22T06:28Z 11.52 ---- DBM Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2015-06-22T22:50Z (-5.0h, +8.0h) 4.85 ---- 2015-06-22T09:20Z 8.65 ---- ElEvo Christian Moestl (Graz) Detail
2015-06-22T14:00Z -3.98 ---- 2015-06-22T15:23Z 2.60 Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-22T19:48Z 1.82 97.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.5 - 7.8
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-06-19T06:42:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T04:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -44
Dst min. time: 2015-06-22T17:00Z
CME Note: Filament eruption below AR12371. Faint front in C3
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-06-22T21:00Z 16.15 ---- 2015-06-19T17:24Z 59.45 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-22T06:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.22 ---- 2015-06-19T17:50Z 59.02 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-22T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 3.15 30.0 2015-06-19T20:25Z 56.43 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-22T13:43Z (-8.0h, +8.5h) 8.87 100.0 2015-06-19T23:56Z 52.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Zak Titus (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-21T04:00Z -24.85 ---- 2015-06-20T02:00Z 50.85 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2015-06-23T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 21.15 60.0 2015-06-20T12:28Z 40.38 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-06-22T09:07Z 4.27 63.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 6.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T15:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Clear indication of CME in AIA 171 and 193: opening/rising field lines starting around 16:30Z, followed by dimmings, two-ribbon flare, outflows. The CME was fast and bright, and also had a 360-degree halo/asymmetric shock structure.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-06-21T02:20Z (-4.53h, +7.12h) -13.33 31.0 2015-06-19T01:19Z 62.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-21T21:00Z 5.33 ---- 2015-06-19T01:23Z 62.28 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-21T09:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.23 31.0 2015-06-19T01:58Z 61.70 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Barbara Thompson (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-21T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -7.67 40.0 2015-06-19T11:51Z 51.82 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-21T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 0.33 70.0 2015-06-19T14:15Z 49.42 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-06-21T11:21Z -4.32 43.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 5.4
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-06-09T20:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-12T12:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Associated with an eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 around 2015-06-09T20:00Z from AR 2364. Also connected to the C2.8 flare also from AR 2364 around the same time.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-06-12T11:21Z -0.97 95.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 6.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2015-06-12T12:19Z 0.00 ---- 2015-06-10T18:22Z 41.95 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Aleksandre Taktakishvili (GSFC) Detail
2015-06-12T10:24Z (-8.0h, +10.0h) -1.92 95.0 2015-06-10T18:26Z 41.88 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Aleksandre Taktakishvili (GSFC) Detail

CME: 2015-05-13T18:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME arrival time difficult to determine.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-05-17T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2015-05-14T13:54Z 70.10 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-05-17T14:00Z ---- ---- 2015-05-15T20:45Z 41.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-05-17T13:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-05-06T17:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-05-10T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: CME arrival time very unclear, could be later in the day
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-05-10T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 12.00 ---- 2015-05-07T12:30Z 59.50 ---- Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-05-09T19:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.42 ---- 2015-05-07T15:58Z 56.03 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-05-09T18:21Z (-1.83h, +1.72h) -5.65 9.0 2015-05-08T01:47Z 46.22 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-05-10T00:38Z 0.63 9.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-05-02T21:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-05-06T00:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: large filament eruption
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-05-07T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 41.17 ---- 2015-05-03T03:53Z 68.95 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-05-06T16:00Z 15.17 ---- 2015-05-04T00:30Z 48.33 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-05-06T20:40Z 19.83 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2015-05-06T04:00Z 3.17 60.0 2015-05-05T13:36Z 11.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail

CME: 2015-04-06T20:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-04-10T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-04-09T13:00Z -11.00 ---- 2015-04-07T07:21Z 64.65 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-04-09T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -6.00 ---- 2015-04-07T12:30Z 59.50 ---- Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-04-09T08:18Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.70 ---- 2015-04-07T14:48Z 57.20 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Anna Chulaki (CCMC) Detail
2015-04-09T07:37Z (-8.0h, +8.76h) -16.38 100.0 2015-04-07T21:44Z 50.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2015-04-09T14:30Z -9.50 ---- 2015-04-08T16:14Z 31.77 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-04-09T12:17Z -11.72 100.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.66667
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-04-09T01:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: CME is associated with part of a filament eruption on the SE area close to AR 2320. Eruption can be seen in SDO 193/304.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-04-08T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -25.17 ---- 2015-04-05T12:30Z 84.67 ---- Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-04-07T01:12Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -47.97 ---- 2015-04-05T15:41Z 81.48 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Dhanesh Krishnarao (GSFC) Detail
2015-04-06T23:57Z (-6.17h, +12.78h) -49.22 97.0 2015-04-05T21:11Z 75.98 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2015-04-07T21:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -28.17 40.0 2015-04-06T06:50Z 66.33 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-04-07T11:32Z -37.63 68.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-03-15T02:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2015-03-17T04:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
Dst min. in nT: -223
Dst min. time: 2015-03-17T23:00Z
CME Note: This CME is connected to the long duration C9.1 flare with start at 01:15 and peak at 02:13, flare is centered in AR 2297, large part of the filament W of AR is also erupting, bright post-flare arcade later in AR 2297
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-03-17T18:00Z 13.92 ---- 2015-03-15T07:22Z 44.72 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-17T18:08Z (-15.0h, +26.3h) 14.05 55.0 2015-03-15T07:49Z 44.27 Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
COMESEP Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-16T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -10.08 ---- 2015-03-15T12:05Z 40.00 ---- Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-17T12:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h) 7.92 60.0 2015-03-15T17:30Z 34.58 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-03-17T11:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 7.57 ---- 2015-03-15T19:20Z 32.75 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Dhanesh Krishnarao (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-17T11:48Z (-5.3h, +7.7h) 7.72 100.0 2015-03-16T02:54Z 25.18 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-17T10:55Z 6.83 71.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.66667 - 6.4
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-03-10T00:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: eruption visible in AIA during flare from 2297. Note another CME follows this one, starting at 2015-03-10T03:36Z, also from the same active region. This entry is for both CMEs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-03-13T01:55Z (-11.0h, +21.0h) ---- 30.0 2015-03-10T10:49Z 63.10 Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
COMESEP Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-11T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2015-03-10T12:18Z 31.70 ---- Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-12T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2015-03-10T14:43Z 39.28 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-12T12:00Z ---- ---- 2015-03-10T17:24Z 42.60 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-12T03:11Z (-7.0h, +6.2h) ---- 37.5 2015-03-10T18:31Z 32.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-03-12T18:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h) ---- 60.0 2015-03-11T10:14Z 31.77 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-03-12T10:11Z ---- 42.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-03-02T22:43:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-03-03T23:00Z ---- 50.0 2015-03-02T07:15Z 39.75 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-03-04T12:00Z ---- 40.0 2015-03-03T07:20Z 28.67 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-03-04T05:30Z ---- 45.0 --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-02-28T11:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-03-04T00:00Z ---- 50.0 2015-03-01T03:30Z 68.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-03-04T00:00Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-02-09T23:35:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-02-12T12:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2015-02-11T08:30Z 27.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-02-12T12:00Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2015-01-12T15:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2015-01-15T08:00Z ---- ---- 2015-01-12T21:06Z 58.90 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-01-14T20:27Z (-7.0h, +7.8h) ---- 75.0 2015-01-13T05:08Z 39.32 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-01-14T19:00Z ---- ---- 2015-01-13T09:45Z 33.25 ---- Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-01-15T15:00Z ---- ---- 2015-01-13T12:30Z 50.50 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2015-01-15T02:00Z ---- ---- 2015-01-13T21:40Z 28.33 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2015-01-15T03:17Z ---- 75.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Go Back to the Main Page

Insert title here

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand