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CCMC CME Scoreboard
CME arrival time predictions from the research community:
The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:
Active CMEs:
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CME: 2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001
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CME Note: A very fast partial halo CME with a protruding narrower 'nose', seen in SOHO C2 and C3 coronagraphs (it is fully covered by a data gap in STEREO A). The CME is associated with the X5 class flare from Active Region 13536 near the East limb. Coronal signatures include a narrow ejecta seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting at 2023-12-31T21:44Z, a wide EUV wave seen in AIA 193, opening of field lines/restructuring of magnetic field on/near the East limb seen in AIA 171/193 starting at 2023-12-31T21:45Z.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-02T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
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----
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----
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2024-01-01T15:30Z |
26.50
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
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Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2024-01-02T18:14Z
(-4.81h, +5.62h)
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----
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----
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2024-01-01T16:11Z |
26.05
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
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Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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| 2024-01-02T12:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
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----
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60.0
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2024-01-01T23:20Z |
12.67
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Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
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WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
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Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
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| 2024-01-02T02:20Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
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----
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60.0
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2024-01-02T10:36Z |
-8.27
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Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
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Other (SIDC)
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Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2024-01-02T12:38Z
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----
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60.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 5.33333
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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CME: 2023-12-31T10:00:00-CME-001
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. It is visible for about three frames in STEREO A COR2 imagery prior to a data gap starting at 2023-12-31T10:53Z, after which the CME is out of the field of view. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N35W30 to N20W65 which begins to lift off around 2023-12-30T09:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 12:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well. Most of the eruptive material appears to originate from the more western side of the filament.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-03T20:33Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
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30.0
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2024-01-02T10:18Z |
34.25
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Other (SIDC)
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Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2024-01-03T15:47Z
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----
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30.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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| 2024-01-03T11:01Z
(-3.92h, +5.44h)
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----
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----
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2024-01-02T15:16Z |
19.75
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----
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CMEFM v.0.1
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Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
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CME: 2023-12-30T09:36:00-CME-001
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Due to an ongoing STEREO campaign, this event is only visible for a few frames in STEREO A imagery. The source is a large filament eruption in the SE (spanning 30E30 to S40E70) which begins to lift-off around 2023-12-30T08:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 09:30Z, and post eruptive arcades begin to form around 10:00Z seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193. This event partially overlaps with CME: 2023-12-30T08:00Z.
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| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-03T03:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
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15.0
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2023-12-31T13:26Z |
61.57
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Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Other (SIDC)
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Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
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| 2024-01-03T03:00Z
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----
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15.0
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--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
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Average of all Methods
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Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
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Past CMEs:
No Past CMEs
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model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
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