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CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

CME: 2022-01-17T14:48:00-CME-001
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-22T11:00Z ---- ---- 2022-01-18T04:15Z 102.75 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2022-01-21T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-18T18:01Z 64.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-21T23:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-20T00:00Z ---- 20.0 2022-01-18T03:18Z 44.70 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-01-20T09:00Z ---- ---- 2022-01-18T03:54Z 53.10 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2022-01-20T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-18T18:01Z 29.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-20T03:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001
CME Note: The potential source is activity centered around N15W15, which includes an eruption with rising loops around 2022-01-15T12:00Z and eruption just south of the rising loops characterized by dimming around 2022-01-15T13:00Z. One of these eruptions is also potentially associated with the 2022-01-15T14:00Z CME, which overlaps with this CME in the coronagraphs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-19T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-16T15:31Z 62.48 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-01-19T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-01-17T12:31Z 47.48 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-19T09:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-14T13:38:00-CME-001
CME Note: Visible in SW of STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3, moving quickly through the FOV. Associated with a large eruption from AR 12925 (S33W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-14T12:54Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-16T14:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-14T17:22Z 45.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-16T15:03Z ---- ---- 2022-01-14T17:50Z 45.22 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 7.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-01-16T04:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-15T07:00Z 21.55 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-16T23:39Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-15T07:00Z 40.65 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-17T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 50.0 2022-01-15T12:52Z 52.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-16T12:03Z (-7.5h, +11.0h) ---- 62.0 2022-01-15T16:05Z 19.97 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-01-16T20:00Z ---- 60.0 2022-01-16T08:44Z 11.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-01-16T18:42Z ---- 57.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.6 - 5.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Past CMEs:

No Past CMEs

Previous Predictions in 2021

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Previous Predictions in 2016

Previous Predictions in 2015

Previous Predictions in 2014

Previous Predictions in 2013

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CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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