CME Scoreboard
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CME Scoreboard
CME arrival time predictions from the research community:
The CME scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time & Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:
Active CMEs:
|
CME: 2020-01-14T10:00:00-CME-001
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-18T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-15T17:09Z |
60.85
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Anna Chulaki (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-19T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-16T08:50Z |
69.17
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-18T15:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2020-01-17T00:25Z |
39.07
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-18T17:09Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-01-06T00:01:00-CME-001
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-09T21:00Z
(-9.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2020-01-07T04:30Z |
64.50
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-09T21:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2020-01-07T08:30Z |
61.47
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-13T16:22Z
(-32.0h, +32.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-08T16:56Z |
119.43
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-10T05:24Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-09T05:42Z |
23.70
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-10T22:11Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
----
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
Past CMEs:
No Past CMEs
|
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