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CCMC CME Scoreboard
CME arrival time predictions from the research community:
The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:
Active CMEs:
|
CME: 2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the S in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S22W05, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T19:38Z. This event is closely preceded by CME 2024-07-26T20:48Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-30T00:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-27T05:10Z |
66.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-29T15:44Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-27T06:08Z |
57.60
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-29T19:55Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-26T20:48:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the SE in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S10W10, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T17:00Z. This CME is observed faintly in SOHO and STEREO COR2A, so some uncertainty lies in the true leading edge and width in this analysis. This event is followed shortly by CME 2024-07-26T21:24Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-29T16:38Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-27T05:47Z |
58.85
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-29T15:44Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-27T06:08Z |
57.60
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-29T16:11Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-26T15:23:00-CME-001
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|
CME Note: Very faint CME seen to the E in SOHO C2/C3, and better in STEREO COR2A until a data gap begins at 2024-07-26T17:09Z. The source for this CME is likely a very broad area of dimming spanning approximately S10E15 to S10E50 observed over the tight cluster of ARs 3767, 3766, 3765, and 3764 beginning around 2024-07-26T13:00Z in SDO AIA 193, appearing centered the most around S08E35 near AR 3765.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-30T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-27T03:44Z |
82.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-29T15:44Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-27T06:08Z |
57.60
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-30T02:52Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-25T00:24:00-CME-001
|
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CME Note: Messy halo CME seen with a bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Solar Orbiter detected an estimated X7 class flare on the far side peaking at 2024-07-24T23:25Z that may be the source of this halo feature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-27T05:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2024-07-25T23:18Z |
29.70
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-27T05:00Z
|
----
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-23T14:48:00-CME-001
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CME Note: Bright CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs. The source is an M2.4 flare from an unnumbered region on the SE limb around S10E77, which peaked at 2024-07-23T14:28Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed starting around 2024-07-23T13:34Z as rapid field line opening with an EUV wave, followed by post-eruptive arcades, in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-25T23:19Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-24T04:47Z |
42.53
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-27T14:13Z
(-12.4h, +13.88h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-24T23:06Z |
63.12
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-25T23:05Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-24T23:15Z |
23.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-25T18:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
10.0
|
2024-07-25T09:45Z |
8.75
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-26T13:00Z
|
----
|
40.0
|
2024-07-25T22:00Z |
15.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-26T08:49Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-23T04:24:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, spanning from S20-S40 and from W40-W50, near Active Region 13749. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193, brightening is seen in SDO AIA 304, brightening and brief arcades are seen in SDO AIA 131 at 2024-07-23T03:52Z, dimming and opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 193/304 imagery.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-26T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-23T14:05Z |
77.92
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-26T20:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with an M5.0 flare seen in SDO AIA 131 from S10W30 (AR 13743) which had a peak time of 2024-07-17T06:39Z. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive brightening is seen in SDO AIA 131/193/304. Seen in SDO AIA imagery before a shutter maneuver/eclipse lasting from 17/07:07Z to 17/07:48Z. Seen also in GOES SUVI and STEREO A EUV imagery.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-20T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T21:08Z |
68.87
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-21T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-07-18T06:11Z |
69.82
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T13:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-18T23:05Z |
14.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-20T11:50Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This was determined to likely be separate from CME: 2024-07-16T23:12Z. There were multiple source candidates for this CME, including the M1.9 flare and eruption from AR 3744 or an eruption with moving/opening field lines from AR 3751 around 2024-07-16T20:27Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-19T14:49Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T20:09Z |
42.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-20T12:32Z
(-7.55h, +9.12h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T22:54Z |
61.63
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-20T11:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
80.0
|
2024-07-18T06:13Z |
52.78
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T22:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
80.0
|
2024-07-18T10:10Z |
35.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T12:06Z
(-7.83h, +7.83h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-18T15:45Z |
20.35
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T13:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-18T23:05Z |
14.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T22:19Z
|
----
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.9 flare from AR 3744 (approx. N18W11) with peak time 2024-07-16T22:06Z. EUV wave, opening field lines, and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery due to a data gap from 2024-07-16T13:35Z to 23:35Z. While there is some field line opening associated with another M-class flare shortly beforehand, M1.6 with peak time 2024-07-16T21:24Z, the broad area of dimming is more clearly associated with this later M1.9 flare.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-19T13:16Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T13:59Z |
47.28
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T21:07Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T17:14Z |
51.88
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T14:49Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T20:09Z |
42.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T20:50Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T21:00Z |
47.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-20T12:32Z
(-7.55h, +9.12h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-17T22:38Z |
61.90
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-20T10:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-18T10:20Z |
47.67
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T13:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-18T23:05Z |
14.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-19T22:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-16T08:48:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 white light imagery, and may be obscured by the instrument pylon. The potential source is an M3.6 flare peaking at 2024-07-16T07:37Z from Active Region 3753 (approx. N10W25). There is a data gap in SDO imagery from approximately 2024-07-16T07:07Z to 2024-07-16T07:47Z, but following this gap, post-eruptive arcades and dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in GOES SUVI and STEREO A EUV imagery.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-20T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-16T17:16Z |
88.73
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-20T10:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-09T06:24:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: A very faint and slow CME in the southeast only seen in the early imagery in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 (and not seen in C3 because of its faintness). Its source could possibly be the seemingly sympathetic eruptions in Active Region 3738 (S08E26) (accompanied by a C-class flare) and Active Region 3736 (S18W04). The area between these two active region registers a very faint but relatively large-area dimming seen starting after 2024-07-09T05:30Z and centered around S25E20. This dimming could be associated with this faint CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-13T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-07-09T17:09Z |
90.85
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-13T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: A CME to the SE with a complex uneven (pointy) front that comes on the heels of and overlaps with the preceding (2024-06-01T19:12Z) halo CME. There might also be an fainter wider front associated with it as well but the identification of it is hard because of the outflows following the 2024-06-01T19:12Z CME. The source of this CME could be the M7.3 flare from Active Region 3697 (S20E21) peaking at 2024-06-01T19:40Z and an associated eruption signified by post-eruptive arcades and a somewhat more eastern dimming centered very approximately around (S20E25). The possible arrival signature of this CME is currently still under analysis.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-06-04T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-02T17:53Z |
48.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-03T20:43Z
(-4.94h, +7.23h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-02T18:21Z |
26.37
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-04T17:19Z
(-23.0h, +23.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2024-06-03T07:16Z |
34.05
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-04T13:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2024-06-03T08:24Z |
28.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-04T04:10Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-03T15:22Z |
12.80
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-04T14:01Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-03T15:24Z |
22.62
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-04T10:32Z
|
----
|
55.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
Past CMEs:
|
CME: 2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. STEREO A COR2 is in a data gap during this event. The source of this CME appears to be an M1.0 flare from AR13757 (N15E20) peaking at 2024-07-21T16:31Z. Filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with significant northward deflection. The bulk of the CME is likely the brighter portion visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 difference imagery to the NE. The fainter halo portion is possibly associated with this event, though there is some uncertainty due to a lack of visible dimming to the south of the source location.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-24T16:11Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
20.38
|
----
|
2024-07-21T23:20Z |
44.47
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-24T13:00Z
|
17.20
|
70.0
|
2024-07-21T23:30Z |
44.30
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T18:47Z
|
-1.02
|
----
|
2024-07-21T23:47Z |
44.02
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-24T20:42Z
(-7.59h, +6.87h)
|
24.90
|
----
|
2024-07-22T01:43Z |
42.08
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T20:44Z
(-6.58h, +6.58h)
|
0.93
|
----
|
2024-07-22T12:24Z |
31.40
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T10:26Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-9.37
|
----
|
2024-07-22T12:29Z |
31.32
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-24T05:14Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
9.43
|
----
|
2024-07-22T12:31Z |
31.28
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-24T03:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
7.20
|
----
|
2024-07-22T19:00Z |
24.80
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T21:00Z
|
1.20
|
60.0
|
2024-07-23T00:39Z |
19.15
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-24T05:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
9.20
|
50.0
|
2024-07-23T15:37Z |
4.18
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-24T07:38Z
|
11.83
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.16667 - 6.16667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-25T21:58Z
|
50.17
|
----
|
2024-07-25T11:42Z |
-39.90
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-19T22:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Overlaps with CME: 2024-07-19T20:36Z in the field of view of the coronagraphs. The potential source may be a secondary eruption near the filament eruption centered around S30W15 as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery starting around 2024-07-19T18:30Z. Dimming can be seen slightly south of this eruption, near S35E10, starting around 2024-07-19T20:37Z in SDO AIA 193. It is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery following a data gap from 2024-07-19T13:35Z to 22:55Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-23T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.80
|
----
|
2024-07-20T15:15Z |
76.55
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.80
|
----
|
2024-07-20T15:50Z |
75.97
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-22T20:19Z
|
-23.48
|
----
|
2024-07-21T20:10Z |
47.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T00:06Z
|
-19.70
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] CME visible in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Overlaps with CME: 2024-07-19T22:24Z in the field of view of the coronagraphs. The source is likely a filament eruption stretching diagonally from S40E20 to S20W02 starting around 2024-07-19T18:30Z with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and post-eruptive arcades beginning around 2024-07-19T20:30Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 and 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery following a data gap from 2024-07-19T13:35Z to 22:55Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-23T04:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-15.80
|
----
|
2024-07-20T14:59Z |
76.82
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.80
|
----
|
2024-07-20T15:50Z |
75.97
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-23T03:00Z
|
-16.80
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-07-01T11:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-05T03:11Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely an M1.2 flare peaking at 2024-07-01T11:02Z from AR 3730 (approx. S19W37). The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131, the ejection of material following the flare can be seen in SDO AIA 171/193/304, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. || Possible arrival signature: Sudden jump in B-total from 6nT to 11nT, and is sustained between 10nT to 11nT for several hours. Corresponding rotation of the B-field components is observed. There is no significant increase in temperature until about 2024-07-05T08:20Z when the temperature suddenly increases from 50 K to about 90 K. The density decreases very suddenly at 03:23Z, which is indicative of a possible flux rope. Prior to this drop, the density had gradually reached a peak value of 19.29 p/cc, which is possibly attributable to the arrival of a higher density stream, which was indicated in ENLIL simulations to arrive early on July 5th. The source of this arrival may possibly be a cursory glancing blow from CME:2024-07-01T11:36Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-05T13:03Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
9.87
|
10.0
|
2024-07-03T12:47Z |
38.40
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-05T13:03Z
|
9.87
|
10.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-30T03:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-04T09:23Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Very faint CME visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is approximate due to the slow, faint nature of the CME in the field of view of SOHO LASCO C2, and the CME becomes more prominent in C2 around 2024-06-30T08:12Z. The source is unclear, but may be a slow eruption starting at 2024-06-30T00:07Z centered near the central meridian, around N20, best seen in SDO AIA 193. || Possible arrival signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-07-04T00:47Z to 10nT at 09:59Z. A very minor increase in solar wind speed was observed from 313 km/s at 08:23Z to 360 km/s at 15:02Z. An increase in density was observed as well, most notably increasing from 3 p/cc at 13:09Z to 12 p/cc at 16:08Z. This arrival may be associated with a glancing blow from CME: 2024-06-30T03:48Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-04T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
0.62
|
----
|
2024-06-30T17:46Z |
87.62
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-04T10:00Z
|
0.62
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T23:41Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and S/SW in STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption spanning from S30E10 to S20W40. Liftoff seen starting at about 2024-06-29T15:09Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304 after a data gap from 2024-06-29T13:05Z to 2024-06-29T17:25Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-03T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
20.32
|
----
|
2024-06-29T20:09Z |
75.53
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-02T22:13Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-1.47
|
50.0
|
2024-06-30T07:10Z |
64.52
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-03T08:37Z
(-10.22h, +12.56h)
|
8.93
|
----
|
2024-06-30T13:18Z |
58.38
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-02T21:50Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.85
|
----
|
2024-06-30T13:34Z |
58.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-02T22:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.58
|
----
|
2024-06-30T14:35Z |
57.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-03T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
0.32
|
80.0
|
2024-06-30T15:15Z |
56.43
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-02T04:26Z
|
-19.25
|
----
|
2024-06-30T19:00Z |
52.68
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-03T02:00Z
|
2.32
|
----
|
2024-07-01T22:00Z |
25.68
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-03T00:39Z
|
0.97
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.6 - 5.8
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-02T23:41Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Very faint loop CME seen to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a bit elusive, but may possibly be the liftoff of some filamentary material from one of the many filaments currently on the Earth-facing disk. Based on a stereoscopic measurement (with Lat:-17 and Lon:36), this may possibly be the liftoff of some material from a filament visible in SDO AIA 304 imagery which spanned from S40W10 to S25W60 at the start time of this CME. This CME overlaps with CME:2024-06-29T03:36Z. || Possible arrival signature: The first of a series of complex arrival signatures seen at L1. A very small increase in B-total from 3nT to 4.6nT is seen starting at 2024-07-02T23:41Z, with corresponding rotation of B-field components. B-total begins to steadily increase over the next several hours until reaching a peak value of 6.41nT at 2024-07-03T15:30Z. A corresponding steady rotation of B-field components progresses over several hours until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. Temperature steadily decreases from about 80 K at 2024-07-02T22:38Z to about 50 K at 2024-07-02T23:41Z. Density remains very low, around 2cc, until 2024-07-03T15:30Z. This arrival is currently suspected to be the combined arrival of the filament eruption CME:2024-06-29T16:12Z and the glancing blow arrival of CME:2024-06-29T04:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-03T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.32
|
----
|
2024-06-29T17:12Z |
78.48
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-03T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.32
|
----
|
2024-06-29T18:13Z |
77.47
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-03T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.32
|
----
|
2024-06-29T18:13Z |
77.47
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-02T22:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.58
|
----
|
2024-06-30T14:35Z |
57.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-03T04:01Z
|
4.33
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.25 - 3.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-28T00:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and just to the SE in STEREO COR2A. The source for this CME is not entirely certain, but appears to originate from the cluster of ARs 3723, 3727, 3728, centered roughly around S20E25 (as such, this is used as the CME source coordinates). Some small C-class flaring is observed here as early as 2024-06-27T19:45Z, more noticeable closer to 2024-06-27T21:24Z possibly due to post-eruptive loops observed across SDO AIA 94/131/171/193. However, more confidence in this area is given via a good triangulation of the CME front between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A in swpc_cat when measuring. No clear arrival signature in solar wind found for this event.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-07-01T21:37Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-28T17:36Z |
76.02
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-01T17:13Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2024-06-29T09:33Z |
55.67
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-01T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-29T20:09Z |
33.85
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-07-01T14:56Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-25T23:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature for this CME. Starting around 2024-06-29T14:30Z, rotation in magnetic field components is seen in ACE and DSCOVR data. Further analysis of this event may be of interest to the research community. Faint CME visible in the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the S/SE in STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption centered around S10W05, between ARs 3719 and 3720. Liftoff and brightening starting around 2024-06-25T22:18Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-06-29T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-26T15:38Z |
70.37
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-29T14:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2024-06-26T16:08Z |
69.87
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-29T19:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-26T22:33Z |
68.45
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-29T23:45Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2024-06-27T10:07Z |
61.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-29T17:41Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-25T13:25:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. Around 2024-06-29T03:30Z, a small bump in density is observed, followed by an enhancement in temperature at 2024-06-29T07:30Z. Further analysis of this event may be of interest to the research community. A CME seen to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The leading edge is unclear. Source is opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193 and an M1.0 flare from Active Region 13723 peaking at 2024-06-25T12:45Z best seen in SDO AIA 131.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-06-29T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-25T22:31Z |
78.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-29T05:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T09:09Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.67
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption. The filament extended from approximately N15W55 to S30W15 on the disk, with liftoff seen starting around 2024-06-24T21:40Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-06-28T14:04Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
4.92
|
----
|
2024-06-25T20:53Z |
60.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T21:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
11.85
|
60.0
|
2024-06-25T23:11Z |
57.97
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T01:55Z
|
-7.23
|
----
|
2024-06-26T03:00Z |
54.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T21:00Z
|
11.85
|
----
|
2024-06-26T10:00Z |
47.15
|
Max Kp Range: 2.67 - 4.67
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T23:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
14.35
|
30.0
|
2024-06-26T13:48Z |
43.35
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T18:00Z
|
8.85
|
----
|
2024-06-26T22:22Z |
34.78
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-29T02:31Z
(-12.07h, +13.78h)
|
17.37
|
50.0
|
2024-06-27T01:45Z |
31.40
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T13:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
3.95
|
----
|
2024-06-27T15:13Z |
17.93
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T06:08Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.02
|
----
|
2024-06-27T15:14Z |
17.92
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-28T16:08Z
|
6.98
|
46.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.945 - 4.945
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-13T00:06:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-06-15T14:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2024-06-14T01:10Z |
36.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-16T02:00Z
(-10.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-14T01:40Z |
48.33
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-16T17:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2024-06-14T12:12Z |
52.80
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-16T03:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-06-10T14:31Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.08
|
----
|
2024-06-08T04:43Z |
59.88
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T19:00Z
|
2.40
|
----
|
2024-06-08T05:50Z |
58.77
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T06:00Z
|
-10.60
|
----
|
2024-06-08T05:58Z |
58.63
|
Max Kp Range: 4.67 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T09:44Z
(-4.84h, +5.53h)
|
-6.87
|
----
|
2024-06-08T06:49Z |
57.78
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T06:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-10.60
|
70.0
|
2024-06-08T11:46Z |
52.83
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-4.60
|
50.0
|
2024-06-08T13:39Z |
50.95
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T14:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.02
|
----
|
2024-06-08T13:53Z |
50.72
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-09T23:09Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.45
|
----
|
2024-06-08T14:41Z |
49.92
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T15:54Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.70
|
----
|
2024-06-08T14:43Z |
49.88
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-09T22:21Z
|
-18.25
|
----
|
2024-06-09T05:15Z |
35.35
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-10T09:31Z
|
-7.08
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.38143 - 6.28571
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-06-05T16:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-06-05T15:53Z to 2024-06-06T00:38Z. The source is a large filament eruption which begins to lift off around 2024-06-05T16:00Z spanning N01E55 to N23E55 (centered around N15E53) as seen in AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, and GOES SUVI 304 imagery. Dimming is visible in the southern portion of the eruption site, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 17:30Z. No arrival signature in solar wind for this event.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-06-09T07:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-06T12:25Z |
66.58
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-09T07:57Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-09T08:54Z
(-6.46h, +9.33h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-06-06T22:42Z |
58.20
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-29T15:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The information leading to this Advisory notice includes the following events: 1) the confirmed X1.2 flare at 2024/05/29 14:20Z in the strong solar active region (AR) 3691 located at N28E16; 2) the estimated velocity of the flux rope is 1015 km/s and 3) the historical location of this level of X-class flare has produced geomagnetic storms in the past. The CME produced by that event is heading toward the Earth and in all likelihood will affect the Earth. The magnitude to which this storm will affect Earth is unknown since the directionality (Bz north or south) is not known for this CME. | Additional information from Kent Tobiska: The forecast I provided is for the one in the Northern hemisphere AR 3691 which had a smaller flare at 12-13 UT of M5.2 but was located closer to the center of the disk at N25E10 and a M5.7 at 18-19 UT even closer to the center of the disk. Those are likely to be more geoeffective as I go back through the details. However, I expect a very complex Dst event to occur with several (at least 3, not including any HSS effects) main phase features, each depressing the Dst to lower values over the next 1-2 days.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-31T09:00Z
|
----
|
89.0
|
2024-05-29T16:00Z |
41.00
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -144
Dst min. time: 2024-05-31T19:00Z
|
Anemomilos
|
WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-31T09:00Z
|
----
|
89.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-29T14:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature observed for this CME at L1. Large, bright partial halo CME to east in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is the X1.4 class flare from AR13697 with associated moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and GOES SUVI 284. Additionally, a thin filament ejecta was visible during the eruption as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Post-eruptive arcades followed the flare as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 171.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-31T18:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-29T20:34Z |
45.43
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-01T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-29T21:43Z |
70.28
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-01T07:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-30T01:50Z |
53.17
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-02T02:29Z
(-10.42h, +12.49h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-30T02:50Z |
71.65
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-01T08:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-05-30T05:00Z |
51.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-01T11:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-05-30T12:14Z |
46.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-06-01T11:04Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.2
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-23T07:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-26T14:35Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a small filament eruption centered near S12E03 which begins to lift-off around 2024-05-23T06:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. This eruption appears to deflect towards the southeast as it leaves the solar disk/initial source location. Post eruptive arcades begin to from in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery around 07:20Z. This event partially overlaps with CME: 2024-05-23T06:48Z. Possible arrival signature: Characterized by a minor amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2024-05-26T14:35Z to 8nT at 20:13Z. There are a few minor increases in solar wind speed prior to the amplification magnetic field components, most notably an increase from ~350 km/s at 11:08Z to ~450 km/s at 13:05Z. There are no significant increases in temperature or density observed, beyond an increase in density to 8 N/cm^3 at 2024-05-27T03:31Z. An alternative arrival signature could be the one starting at 2024-05-27T02:42Z when it looks like the ICME crossed the spacecraft, with a slight descending profile in the plasma and magnetic field indicating a glancing blow and the possible start of the magnetic cloud around 06:12Z (according to Carlos Perez Alanis, LASSOS team).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-27T03:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
12.42
|
----
|
2024-05-23T17:57Z |
68.63
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-27T00:01Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
9.43
|
30.0
|
2024-05-24T12:25Z |
50.17
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-27T01:30Z
|
10.92
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-20T20:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-23T12:53Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME to the east. Its source could be a slow eruption in AR 3688 starting at 2024-05-20T18:36Z, with the dimming that somewhat enlarges the SE CH located to the south of this Active Region. The dimming is centered approximately at (S20-25E35). Possible arrival signature looks like a flank of a flux-rope, with slight rotations in the B-components. Note that the compression zone between the preceding ICME and this one may start as early as 2024-05-22T21:17Z (when the temperature and density begin to increase slightly).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-23T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.12
|
----
|
2024-05-21T18:22Z |
42.52
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-23T23:00Z
|
10.12
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-19T19:09:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-22T05:40Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Narrow CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is the M2.5 flare starting at 2024-05-19T17:47Z from AR 3685 (S10E33). An eruption can be best seen in SDO AIA 304 following the flare. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUV 195. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a drop in temperature and rotation of two magnetic field components; at 05:55Z there is the beginning of a drop in temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-22T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
17.33
|
----
|
2024-05-20T18:17Z |
35.38
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-22T23:00Z
|
17.33
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-19T14:23:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-22T05:40Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Thin, faint CME seen to the east in all coronagraphs. The source is not too clear, but may be associated with an M1.9 flare from AR 3685 that peaked at 2024-05-19T13:44Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Some weak field line movement is observed at this time of the flare in SDO AIA 171/193, and dark filamentary material is seen rising along field lines after the flare occurs and correlates to the start time of the CME in coronagraph imagery. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a drop in temperature and rotation of two magnetic field components; at 05:55Z there is the beginning of a drop in temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-22T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
17.33
|
----
|
2024-05-20T18:17Z |
35.38
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-22T23:00Z
|
17.33
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-17T21:05:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-20T06:16Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME associated with M7.2 flare of AR3685. There is a very brief possible flux rope signature starting around 2024-05-20T06Z with separation of magnetic field components, drop in density and temperature and mild increase of magnetic field to 8nT.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-20T20:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
13.73
|
60.0
|
2024-05-18T10:30Z |
43.77
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-20T12:54Z
(-5.63h, +7.45h)
|
6.63
|
----
|
2024-05-18T18:00Z |
36.27
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-20T16:27Z
|
10.18
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-17T04:28:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Narrow, faint CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Potentially associated with AR 3679. A filament eruption is visible in this area around 2024-05-17T03:00Z in SDO AIA 304 which appears to deflect to the north in EUV imagery. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193. There are no clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind, although there is a very brief possible flux rope signature starting around 2024-05-20T06Z with separation of magnetic field components, drop in density and temperature and mild increase of magnetic field to 8nT.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-20T17:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-17T19:44Z |
69.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-20T17:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-15T10:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the NNE in all coronagraphs. Observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 as a loop centered over an unnumbered region on the disk ~N35E35. This loop slowly begins rising around 2024-05-16T06:30Z before before explosively erupting and breaking around 2024-05-16T09:15Z. A broad area of dimming to the N and E of this area is observed in SDO AIA 193 with the eruption, a double ribbon flare is observed in SDO AIA 304 underneath this loop, and a post-eruptive arcade starts forming around 2024-05-16T10:09Z. No clear CME arrival signature found in real time solar wind.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-19T04:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-16T16:59Z |
59.02
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-19T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
10.0
|
2024-05-18T07:15Z |
16.75
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-19T02:00Z
|
----
|
10.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-15T08:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T12:40Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME seen due West in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is EUV wave seen beyond the SW limb starting at 2024-05-15T08:18Z in SDO AIA 171/193. Widely opening field lines with northern deflection seen on or just beyond the SW limb at an apparent latitude of S15 (before deflection). This CME overlaps heavily with CME: 2024-05-15T08:48Z. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-14T10:09Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-17T18:35Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
5.92
|
60.0
|
2024-05-16T13:06Z |
23.57
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-17T18:35Z
|
5.92
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-17T12:40Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs (STEREO A gets first visible frame). Source is an unnumbered region of the solar disk, centered around N23E35. Starting around 2024-05-14T09:07Z, field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 alongside a diagonal region of light dimming spanning approximately N40E60 -> N15E30 across that center point. A distinct post-eruptive arcade forms around 2024-05-14T10:47Z across SDO AIA 131/171/193/211. Potential arrival signature is characterized by an initial Bt increase from 6nT->14nT, eventually increasing to almost 17nT at 2024-05-17T14:04Z. There is a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 490 km/s and an increase in ion density. Bz stays negative for almost one day. Around 21Z there is a drop in density, followed by a drop in ion density, possibly indicating a flux rope. However, this arrival signature could also be from 2024-05-15T08:36Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-17T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.33
|
----
|
2024-05-14T18:45Z |
65.92
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-18T00:30Z
|
11.83
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-18T02:00Z
(-8.83h, +11.55h)
|
13.33
|
----
|
2024-05-14T22:55Z |
61.75
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-13T09:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-15T18:13Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades seen at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by a small but distinct shock: Bt increasing from around 4nT->7.5nT, with a minimal but noticeable bump in temperature, density, and speed. It is possibly the arrival of the shock front of this CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-15T11:30Z
|
-6.72
|
----
|
2024-05-15T01:20Z |
16.88
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-15T11:30Z
|
-6.72
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
----
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-11T01:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Ear-shaped bright partial halo CME with a very complex shape brighter bulk and a fainter somewhat asymmetric full halo shock. The CME is associated with the X5.8 flare and a significant eruption (massive dimming) and EUV wave seen in SDO 193. It is possible that this CME arrived at L1 2024-05-12T08:55Z, although it is more likely that the 2024-05-10T07:12Z CME is responsible for the 2024-05-12T08:55Z arrival.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-12T11:13Z
(-5.0h, +3.84h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-11T05:24Z |
29.82
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-13T13:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-11T06:38Z |
54.37
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T18:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2024-05-11T09:30Z |
32.50
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-13T01:00Z
|
----
|
60.0
|
2024-05-11T10:20Z |
38.67
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-13T04:59Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-11T14:23Z |
38.60
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T17:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-12T07:37Z |
9.97
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-13T13:02Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-12T07:39Z |
29.38
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-13T00:58Z
|
----
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T08:55Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature (in review) characterized by Btotal increasing from 5nT 2024-05-11T08:55Z to 12nT at 08:58Z, an increase in solar wind speed from ~820 km/s at 08:55Z to 925 km/s, with an increase in temperature as well.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-12T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.08
|
----
|
2024-05-10T13:38Z |
43.28
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T02:32Z
(-5.53h, +3.98h)
|
-6.38
|
----
|
2024-05-10T14:29Z |
42.43
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T08:50Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.08
|
----
|
2024-05-10T20:24Z |
36.52
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T22:46Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.85
|
----
|
2024-05-10T20:26Z |
36.48
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T10:00Z
|
1.08
|
80.0
|
2024-05-11T02:16Z |
30.65
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T03:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.92
|
----
|
2024-05-11T03:30Z |
29.42
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T10:11Z
|
1.27
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.33333 - 7.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T20:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Partial halo CME seen in both coronagraphs and associated with an X1.1 flare from AR 3664 (S18W29) with a full halo faint shock and a slightly brighter fuzzy-fronted bulk to the west. The start time is possibly earlier that 2024-05-09T18:23Z bc of a SOHO data gap. Coronal signatures include a sizable ejecta from AR 3664 seen directed north-westwards at ~17:36ZZ in AIA 304, an elongated dimming extending northward and westward of the flare location and stretching as far as the two coronal holes north of the equator. A possible arrival signature is characterized by a weak rotation of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 15nT. A subsequent increase in speed is observed from ~770 km/s to 1005 km/s at 2024-05-12T00:555Z and a sharp increase in temperature. Density appears to decrease preceding this arrival signature. Possibly this is a flank impact/glancing blow arrival. Due to the increase in solar wind speed a coronal hole high speed stream may also be embedded in this signature, originating from a coronal hole which reached the central meridian on 2024-05-03.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-11T07:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-12.58
|
----
|
2024-05-09T23:35Z |
44.92
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T23:00Z
|
2.50
|
80.0
|
2024-05-10T02:25Z |
42.08
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T02:28Z
(-5.02h, +3.98h)
|
5.97
|
----
|
2024-05-10T02:58Z |
41.53
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.50
|
----
|
2024-05-10T06:10Z |
38.33
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T02:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.87
|
----
|
2024-05-10T20:21Z |
24.15
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-12T12:12Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
15.70
|
----
|
2024-05-10T20:22Z |
24.13
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T23:19Z
|
2.82
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 9.0
Dst min. in nT: -412
Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This halo is associated with the X2.2 class flare from AR13664 peaking at 2024-05-09T09:13Z. A clear EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 crossing towards the central meridian and towards the limb in the southwest. Post-eruptive arcades are present in SDO/AIA 193 and 131. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA 304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-11T18:00Z
|
8.50
|
----
|
2024-05-09T15:18Z |
42.20
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T05:02Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.47
|
----
|
2024-05-09T17:04Z |
40.43
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T03:51Z
(-4.53h, +3.4h)
|
-5.65
|
----
|
2024-05-09T17:06Z |
40.40
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T13:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-20.45
|
----
|
2024-05-09T20:28Z |
37.03
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-13.50
|
100.0
|
2024-05-09T20:30Z |
37.00
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T23:48Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-9.70
|
----
|
2024-05-09T22:51Z |
34.65
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T21:00Z
|
-12.50
|
80.0
|
2024-05-10T02:18Z |
31.20
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T23:16Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-10.23
|
----
|
2024-05-10T15:18Z |
18.20
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T19:45Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.25
|
----
|
2024-05-10T15:23Z |
18.12
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T03:05Z
|
-6.42
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.2
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 9.0
Dst min. in nT: -412
Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Full halo CME with a bulk portion visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 lasting from 2024-05-08T19:53Z to 2024-05-09T01:53Z. The source is a large eruption and accompanying X1.0 and M9.8 flares from Active Region 13664 (S20W17) staring around 2024-05-08T21:08Z. Two rising loops are seen from Active Region 13664 (S20W17) staring around 2024-05-08T21:29Z and 22:08Z, respectively, as seen in SDO AIA 193/131, which likely resulted in two leading edges which very quickly combine in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, and thus are considered one CME. A wide EUV wave and widely opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171/193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-11T01:00Z
|
-8.50
|
----
|
2024-05-09T15:18Z |
42.20
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T23:46Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-9.73
|
----
|
2024-05-09T19:32Z |
37.97
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T04:37Z
(-4.88h, +3.95h)
|
-4.88
|
50.0
|
2024-05-09T20:02Z |
37.47
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T19:51Z
|
-13.65
|
50.0
|
2024-05-09T20:03Z |
37.45
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T13:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-20.45
|
----
|
2024-05-09T20:28Z |
37.03
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T18:07Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-15.38
|
----
|
2024-05-09T22:47Z |
34.72
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T21:00Z
|
-12.50
|
80.0
|
2024-05-10T02:12Z |
31.30
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T19:09Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-14.35
|
----
|
2024-05-10T10:15Z |
23.25
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.50
|
----
|
2024-05-10T10:16Z |
23.23
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T22:43Z
|
-10.78
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames prior to and following a data gap lasting from 2024-05-08T19:53Z to 2024-05-09T01:53Z. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 13667 (S26E22) starting around 2024-05-08T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Filament material can be seen against the backdrop of the East limb as the material continues to leave the field of view in SDO AIA 304 around 19:35Z. A large dimming area is seen in SDO AIA 193 at this time, which appears to move southwest of the eruption site. Additionally, some post-eruptive arcades are seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 20:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-11T06:51Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
14.25
|
----
|
2024-05-09T16:39Z |
23.95
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T13:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.55
|
----
|
2024-05-09T20:28Z |
20.13
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T21:57Z
|
5.35
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 6.5 - 8.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Earth-directed full halo seen in all coronagraphs. The source is a large eruption from AR 3664, which included a long-duration M8.6 flare (S22W11) which peaked at 2024-05-08T12:04Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. An EUV wave and field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 94/131/171/211 with some surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. This flare+CME combo resulted in a small rise in protons observed at SOHO and GOES, but not enough for a threshold crossing. The start time used here is when the shock front emerges, with the brighter bulk front emerging ~2024-05-08T13:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-10T20:00Z
|
3.40
|
----
|
2024-05-08T15:53Z |
48.72
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T01:39Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
9.05
|
----
|
2024-05-08T16:18Z |
48.30
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T00:38Z
(-7.33h, +7.33h)
|
8.03
|
----
|
2024-05-08T16:33Z |
48.05
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T06:00Z
|
13.40
|
80.0
|
2024-05-08T16:54Z |
47.70
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
3.40
|
----
|
2024-05-08T18:15Z |
46.35
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T22:18Z
(-6.4h, +4.68h)
|
5.70
|
66.0
|
2024-05-08T20:54Z |
43.70
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T08:57Z
|
16.35
|
33.0
|
2024-05-08T20:55Z |
43.68
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T03:38Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
11.03
|
----
|
2024-05-09T12:37Z |
27.98
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T08:31Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
15.92
|
----
|
2024-05-09T12:38Z |
27.97
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T13:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.55
|
----
|
2024-05-09T20:28Z |
20.13
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-11T00:52Z
|
8.27
|
59.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Earth-directed full halo seen in all coronagraphs. The source is a large eruption from AR 3664, which included two flares seen in SDO AIA 131, an initial M3.5 (S21W10) followed by the main long-duration X1.0 (S22W10) which peaked at 2024-05-08T04:30Z and 2024-05-08T05:09Z respectively. An EUV wave and field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 94/131/171/211 with some surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. This flare+CME combo resulted in a small rise in protons observed at SOHO and GOES, but not enough for a threshold crossing. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-10T20:00Z
|
3.40
|
----
|
2024-05-08T15:53Z |
48.72
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T12:14Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.37
|
----
|
2024-05-08T18:43Z |
45.88
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T13:53Z
(-5.09h, +3.78h)
|
-2.72
|
75.0
|
2024-05-08T18:53Z |
45.72
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T23:42Z
|
7.10
|
25.0
|
2024-05-08T18:56Z |
45.67
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T21:00Z
|
4.40
|
80.0
|
2024-05-09T00:34Z |
40.03
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T14:59Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.62
|
----
|
2024-05-09T12:40Z |
27.93
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T23:52Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.27
|
----
|
2024-05-09T12:41Z |
27.92
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T13:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.55
|
----
|
2024-05-09T20:28Z |
20.13
|
Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T17:42Z
|
1.10
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 6.33333 - 8.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T16:38Z
(-7.33h, +7.33h)
|
0.03
|
----
|
2024-05-09T22:41Z |
17.92
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-07T05:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is very faint but visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap which ends at 2024-05-07T06:53Z. The source may be related to an eruption/rising loop from Active Region 13664 (S25E05) staring around 2024-05-07T03:12Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-10T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.60
|
----
|
2024-05-07T15:37Z |
72.98
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.60
|
----
|
2024-05-07T16:01Z |
72.58
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T14:00Z
|
-2.60
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-07T03:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] This CME is faint but visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames prior to and following a data gap lasting from 2024-05-07T02:53Z-06:53Z. The source is likely an eruption near Active Region 13668 (S23E15) starting around 2024-05-07T00:50Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A large dimming area is seen in SDO AIA 193 at this time, which appears to move south of the eruption site. Additionally, rising loops are seen in SDO AIA 131 starting around 01:00Z and in SDO AIA 171/193 around 02:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-10T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.60
|
----
|
2024-05-07T13:21Z |
75.25
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.60
|
----
|
2024-05-07T16:01Z |
72.58
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-10T14:00Z
|
-2.60
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-04T06:53:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME to the NE, only seen in STEREO COR2A due to an ongoing SOHO data gap starting at 2024-05-03T23:27Z. Associated with an M9.1-class flare from AR 3663 (N26W09) which peaked at 2024-05-04T06:19Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as an EUV wave and field line movement deflected to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 171/193/211. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-07T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-04T19:44Z |
53.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-06T22:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2024-05-05T00:45Z |
45.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-07T00:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-05T06:21Z |
41.65
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-06T23:47Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-07T00:11Z
(-4.61h, +7.44h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-07T04:37Z |
-4.43
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-03T21:28:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Southern, fainter piece of one eruption that appears to have sent fronts in two directions. CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and 2-3 frames of LASCO C3, due to a data gap in SOHO LASCO beginning at 2024-05-03T23:27Z in C2 (2024-05-03T23:31Z in C3) and an ongoing data gap in STEREO COR2A. Best observed in SDO AIA 193 as an eruption sourced around N09E33, with a broad, faint dimming seen to the north and darker dimming (spanning E52->E26 and S08->N14) seen to the south. Also observed as wide field line openings in SDO AIA 171. This front is the southern of the pair of fronts observed, and more likely to correlate to the southern end of this dimming. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-06T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-04T21:22Z |
45.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-06T18:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
----
|
65.0
|
2024-05-05T00:45Z |
41.25
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-06T18:30Z
|
----
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-03T21:17:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Northern piece of one eruption that appears to have sent fronts in two directions. CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and 2-3 frames of LASCO C3, due to a data gap in SOHO LASCO beginning at 2024-05-03T23:27Z in C2 (2024-05-03T23:31Z in C3) and an ongoing data gap in STEREO COR2A. Best observed in SDO AIA 193 as an eruption sourced around N09E33, with a broad, faint dimming seen to the north and darker dimming (spanning E52->E26 and S08->N14) seen to the south. Also observed as wide field line openings in SDO AIA 171. This front is the northern of the pair of fronts observed, and more likely to correlate to the northern end of this dimming. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-06T19:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-04T21:22Z |
45.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-08T15:40Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
45.0
|
2024-05-05T11:21Z |
76.32
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-07T17:20Z
|
----
|
45.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-05T18:00Z
|
6.50
|
----
|
2024-05-03T07:37Z |
51.88
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.67
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-06T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
18.50
|
----
|
2024-05-03T13:26Z |
46.07
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T12:34Z
(-3.96h, +5.26h)
|
1.07
|
----
|
2024-05-03T15:36Z |
43.90
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T09:28Z
|
-2.03
|
----
|
2024-05-03T15:50Z |
43.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T09:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.50
|
60.0
|
2024-05-03T18:06Z |
41.40
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T09:00Z
|
-2.50
|
60.0
|
2024-05-03T21:55Z |
37.58
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T13:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.30
|
----
|
2024-05-04T08:44Z |
26.77
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T21:34Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.07
|
----
|
2024-05-04T08:46Z |
26.73
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T23:25Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
11.92
|
60.0
|
2024-05-04T10:47Z |
24.72
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-06T11:07Z
|
23.62
|
----
|
2024-05-05T19:09Z |
-7.65
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-05T18:11Z
|
6.68
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.945
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-05-01T06:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide bulb-like CME with a clear bulk and a wider shock. Its source is an eruption starting after 2024-05-01T05:50Z seen in AIA 304 and 193 as a large size dimming centered around ~S20W65, an opening of field lines seen in AIA 193/171 to the south of AR 3654. There might be an EUV wave with this eruption but it is not easily discernible in AIA 193: there is an isolated less deep dimming around S20W35 in AIA 193 and especially AIA 335 but it is unclear whether this a separate sympathetic eruption. No clear arrival signature has been found in the solar wind data.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-05-04T07:50Z
(-4.72h, +6.43h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-01T16:41Z |
63.15
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-03T17:19Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-05-01T20:03Z |
45.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-04T19:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2024-05-02T06:00Z |
61.00
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-04T22:02Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2024-05-02T09:03Z |
60.98
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-05-04T10:32Z
|
----
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-24T01:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source eruption may be slow dimming starting around 2024-04-24T21:25Z in SDO AIA 193, centered around S40W25. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. No clear arrival signature seen in real time solar wind data. The closest possible arrival is at 2024-04-26 12:30Z, however it is also not a clear arrival signature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-27T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-04-24T18:32Z |
69.47
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-27T16:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-23T18:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME visible to the west/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. It may be associated with an eruption triggered by the M2.9 flare peaking at 2024-04-23T17:44Z from AR 3638, which also may have been associated with CME with ID: 2024-04-23T18:12:00-CME-001. The opening field lines appear to widen at 2024-04-23T17:51Z, which may be associated with this CME. It is analyzed as a separate feature from CME: 2024-04-23T18:12:00-CME-001 due to the difference in speed and apparent separate leading edge. No clear arrival signature seen in real time solar wind data. The closest possible arrival is at 2024-04-26 12:30Z, however it is also not a clear arrival signature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-27T17:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
15.0
|
2024-04-25T15:21Z |
49.65
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-27T18:28Z
|
----
|
15.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-27T19:56Z
(-12.26h, +13.94h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-04-26T17:49Z |
26.12
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-26T00:17Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.0 flare from Active Region 13654 (S06E41) starting around 2024-04-23T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A small EUV wave is visible moving NE from the source, and post-eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2024-04-23T10:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an initial jump in solar wind speed from around 300->370 km/s alongside a jump in temperature, and a slow rise in Btotal and density starting around 2024-04-26T01:08Z, reaching a total of around 9.7 nT. Bz is predominantly southward reaching around -9nT. In the bulk speed and proton density the shock is well defined.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-26T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
21.72
|
----
|
2024-04-24T17:58Z |
30.32
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-26T22:00Z
|
21.72
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-18T06:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint filament eruption to the SE seen in all coronagraphs, but only a few frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO COR2A due to faintness. The source is likely a faint filament eruption starting at 2024-04-18T05:45Z from AR 3638, only observed in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 as faint outflowing dark material, deflecting southeastward as it travels. Notably visibly weaker than previous eruptions from AR 3638 leading up to this one.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-21T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-04-18T21:12Z |
64.80
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-21T14:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-18T02:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs. The source is likely a massive dimming region (spanning approximately E35->E15 and S10->N12) following some weak field line and loop breaking (observed across wavelengths SDO AIA 131/171/193/211) from AR 3645, which begins around 2024-04-17T22:09Z and dims until about 2024-04-18T02:09Z. A slow rise in x-ray flux is noted in SDO AIA 131 and GOES real-time x-ray flux over this time but no "flare" occurs. This dimming notably begins well before the start time giving some lower confidence, but this region gave an excellent visual fit in SWPC_CAT during the measurement process compared to other longitudes or Plane-Of-Sky. A wider front to the north of this one emerging at 2024-04-18T04:12Z is likely from this same eruption, measuring 230 km/s as a Plane-Of-Sky.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-21T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-04-18T21:12Z |
64.80
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-21T17:30Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-21T21:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-04-19T23:31Z |
45.48
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-17T21:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint filament eruption to the SE seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and a few frames of C3. The source is a filament eruption starting at 2024-04-17T20:04Z from AR 3638, best observed in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 as outflowing dark material, deflecting southeastward as it travels. This eruption is paired with very a impulsive double peaked C9.0 and C9.7 flare best seen in SDO AIA 131. Slight dimming and field line movement observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 as well.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-21T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-04-18T21:12Z |
64.80
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-21T14:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-19T04:53Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E30 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-15T05:36Z. ARRIVAL: Sudden increase in B-total from 5nT to 15nT detected by both DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-04-19T04:53Z. Simultaneous sudden increase in density at the start time of arrival, 2024-04-19T04:53Z. A sudden increase in temperature and speed is observed later at 2024-04-19T13:44Z, likely indicating the arrival of a flux rope. Corresponding rotation of B-field components observed in DSCOVR, which was the primary spacecraft at the time. Signature also observed in ACE. A gradual increase to peak value of 18nT was also observed during flux rope arrival. Bz remained predominantly in the negative regime for this arrival.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-17T22:44Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-30.15
|
----
|
2024-04-15T19:28Z |
81.42
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T21:41Z
|
-31.20
|
----
|
2024-04-15T19:41Z |
81.20
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-36.88
|
----
|
2024-04-15T20:54Z |
79.98
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-19T03:19Z
(-9.52h, +9.11h)
|
-1.57
|
----
|
2024-04-15T23:23Z |
77.50
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-18T02:00Z
|
-26.88
|
----
|
2024-04-16T02:08Z |
74.75
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-18T12:47Z
|
-16.10
|
----
|
2024-04-16T04:55Z |
71.97
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T23:24Z
|
-29.48
|
----
|
2024-04-16T04:59Z |
71.90
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-18T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-24.88
|
20.0
|
2024-04-16T12:52Z |
64.02
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-18T04:14Z
|
-24.65
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.25 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-17T08:55Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E40 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-14T10:09Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-17T16:00Z
|
7.08
|
----
|
2024-04-15T00:14Z |
56.68
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T01:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-7.82
|
----
|
2024-04-15T19:15Z |
37.67
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T01:05Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-7.83
|
----
|
2024-04-15T20:54Z |
36.02
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-16T21:58Z
|
-10.95
|
----
|
2024-04-15T21:58Z |
34.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T09:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
0.08
|
70.0
|
2024-04-16T19:30Z |
13.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T01:09Z
(-7.9h, +6.7h)
|
-7.77
|
100.0
|
2024-04-16T19:33Z |
13.37
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-17T04:23Z
|
-4.53
|
85.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.2 - 6.4
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-16T09:20Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint halo visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S15W20 with liftoff starting around 2024-04-12T00:16Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and a faint EUV wave may also be observed in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also seen south of disk center from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery. ARRIVAL: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-04-16T09:20Z to 12nT at 10:07Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~360 km/s at 07:34Z to 410 km/s at 07:59Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well, reaching 16 N(cm^-3) at 09:36Z. However, ACE contains spurious density data points around this time so the density data is more speculative than the other solar wind parameters. This arrival signature may have partially overlapoed with the arrival of CME: 2024-04-11T07:00Z
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-14T16:20Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-41.00
|
----
|
2024-04-12T16:20Z |
89.00
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-14T16:49Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-40.52
|
----
|
2024-04-12T17:20Z |
88.00
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-14T15:43Z
(-4.43h, +4.51h)
|
-41.62
|
100.0
|
2024-04-12T19:49Z |
85.52
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-14T23:00Z
|
-34.33
|
50.0
|
2024-04-12T21:30Z |
83.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-15T03:00Z
(-4.0h, +8.0h)
|
-30.33
|
70.0
|
2024-04-12T22:48Z |
82.53
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-15T11:48Z
(-8.85h, +6.2h)
|
-21.53
|
----
|
2024-04-12T22:50Z |
82.50
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-15T03:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-30.33
|
75.0
|
2024-04-13T12:36Z |
68.73
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-14T15:05Z
(-7.67h, +7.67h)
|
-42.25
|
----
|
2024-04-13T14:33Z |
66.78
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-15T01:15Z
|
-32.08
|
73.75
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.83333 - 5.83333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-16T02:31Z
|
-6.82
|
----
|
2024-04-15T16:00Z |
17.33
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-15T17:27Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is unclear due to the CME's faintness. The candidate source is a filament eruption centered around N20E10, with liftoff starting around 2024-04-11T05:48Z in SDO AIA 304. The filament can be seen deflecting to the east. The eruption is also best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. STEREO A EUV 195/304 also observes the eruption. ARRIVAL: characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2024-04-15T17:27Z to 10nT at 19:22Z. A subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~330 km/s at 17:27Z to 390 km/s at 18:14Z. This was accompanied by a slight increase in density as well. A possible flux rope arrival appeared around 2024-04-16T09:30Z for which a stronger amplification of magnetic field components was observed, with Btotal increasing to 13nT at 13:03Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-04-14T19:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-22.45
|
25.0
|
2024-04-12T12:24Z |
77.05
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-14T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-29.45
|
----
|
2024-04-12T17:29Z |
71.97
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-13T20:34Z
(-9.38h, +10.97h)
|
-44.88
|
----
|
2024-04-13T00:15Z |
65.20
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-13T22:58Z
(-8.67h, +8.67h)
|
-42.48
|
----
|
2024-04-13T14:30Z |
50.95
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-04-14T06:38Z
|
-34.82
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-25T15:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Three-part CME with somewhat faint leading edge seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption centered at N27E50 from Active Region 13622. Opening field lines, a rising loop, and post eruptive-arcades can be seen in SDO AIA 171/193 at 2024-03-25T14:21Z. Post-eruptive brightening seen in SDO AIA 304 at 14:18Z. Widely opening field lines and small area of brightening seen in GOES SUVI 284 at 14:20Z. No clear arrival signature seen in solar wind at L1, however slight increases in signatures, around 2024-03-29T20:00 - 22:00 could indicate a compression zone and therefore a possible a CME glancing blow at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-29T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-26T13:12Z |
72.80
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-29T14:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
CME Note: Partial halo to the NW following the front of the earlier 2024-03-23T01:25Z CME, with a faint shock front portion seen to SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2024-03-22T18:23Z to 2024-03-23T03:23Z, after which the end of this event is seen for a few frames before exiting the field of view. A possible source could be the slower developing dimming to the SSW of Active Region 3614 (N25E07) following the deep northern dimming to the NE of this Active Region. Alternative source could be the concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:25Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by significant sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, eventually reaching 33nT. There is a corresponding jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-24T17:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
3.75
|
----
|
2024-03-23T16:51Z |
21.32
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T12:30Z
(-5.58h, +5.58h)
|
-1.67
|
----
|
2024-03-23T17:21Z |
20.82
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T16:09Z
(-2.22h, +1.97h)
|
1.98
|
----
|
2024-03-23T18:33Z |
19.62
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.83
|
----
|
2024-03-23T20:26Z |
17.73
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T08:59Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.18
|
----
|
2024-03-23T21:28Z |
16.70
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T07:41Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
17.52
|
----
|
2024-03-23T21:29Z |
16.68
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T21:34Z
|
7.40
|
----
|
2024-03-23T22:02Z |
16.13
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T22:32Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
8.37
|
100.0
|
2024-03-24T01:00Z |
13.17
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T12:00Z
|
-2.17
|
80.0
|
2024-03-24T02:40Z |
11.50
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T09:40Z
(-17.0h, +17.0h)
|
19.50
|
----
|
2024-03-24T07:21Z |
6.82
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T20:00Z
|
5.83
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.33333 - 7.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME first seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 (appearing a few timestamps before the second northern front of 2024-03-23T01:48Z CME and earlier than the faint full halo to the SW). The CME is associated with the X1.1-class flare from Active Region 3614 centered ~N25E07 and with associated eruption seen as EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and as a NE-SW oriented large area of dimming/post eruptive arcades centered ~around Active Region 3614. X-class flare was accompanied by/contributed to by concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:48Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, reaching 33nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from about 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-24T17:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
3.75
|
----
|
2024-03-23T16:51Z |
21.32
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T11:19Z
(-5.58h, +5.58h)
|
-2.85
|
----
|
2024-03-23T17:18Z |
20.87
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T16:09Z
(-2.22h, +1.97h)
|
1.98
|
----
|
2024-03-23T18:21Z |
19.82
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T07:46Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.40
|
----
|
2024-03-23T21:30Z |
16.67
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T06:42Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
16.53
|
----
|
2024-03-23T21:31Z |
16.65
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T21:01Z
|
6.85
|
----
|
2024-03-23T22:01Z |
16.15
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T16:49Z
(-5.41h, +5.41h)
|
2.65
|
----
|
2024-03-23T22:26Z |
15.73
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T22:32Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
8.37
|
100.0
|
2024-03-24T01:00Z |
13.17
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T00:00Z
|
9.83
|
----
|
2024-03-24T01:20Z |
12.83
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.83
|
----
|
2024-03-24T02:07Z |
12.05
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T12:00Z
|
-2.17
|
80.0
|
2024-03-24T02:41Z |
11.48
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T15:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
24.83
|
90.0
|
2024-03-24T12:32Z |
1.63
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-24T20:11Z
|
6.02
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.42857 - 7.57143
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-21T18:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 3614 (~N30E30) starting around 2024-03-21T18:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at this time in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well, with post eruptive dimming visible around 19:00Z in SDO AIA 193. This CME was likely swept into the front of 2024-03-23T01:25Z and 2024-03-23T01:48Z O-type CMEs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-25T17:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-22T07:14Z |
81.77
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T21:32Z
(-11.91h, +13.85h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-22T14:14Z |
79.30
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-22T16:25Z |
73.58
|
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 2.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-25T18:50Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 2.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the S/SE in coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. A large western portion of the filament appears to deflect south/southeast, which is likely associated with this event. Dimming is visible from the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 shortly after the filament lifts-off and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z, which also likely stems from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-21T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.83
|
----
|
2024-03-17T16:37Z |
81.22
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-21T05:53Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
4.05
|
----
|
2024-03-17T17:43Z |
80.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-20T18:00Z
|
-7.83
|
----
|
2024-03-17T18:51Z |
78.98
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-20T18:26Z
(-13.4h, +13.4h)
|
-7.40
|
----
|
2024-03-18T09:29Z |
64.35
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-21T04:36Z
(-9.6h, +9.6h)
|
2.77
|
80.0
|
2024-03-18T09:34Z |
64.27
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-21T00:17Z
|
-1.55
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-21T01:51Z
(-8.88h, +6.71h)
|
0.02
|
----
|
2024-03-20T22:48Z |
3.03
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-21T07:11Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.35
|
----
|
2024-03-17T16:57Z |
80.88
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-21T05:53Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
4.05
|
----
|
2024-03-17T17:43Z |
80.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-20T11:07Z
(-8.77h, +6.6h)
|
-14.72
|
----
|
2024-03-17T18:51Z |
78.98
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-20T20:00Z
|
-5.83
|
----
|
2024-03-17T18:54Z |
78.93
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-21T11:38Z
(-21.0h, +21.0h)
|
9.80
|
----
|
2024-03-18T09:25Z |
64.42
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-21T01:33Z
|
-0.28
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-14T09:23:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source of this CME is an eruption of a large northern filament seen after 2024-03-14T08:00Z. The erupting filament stretches from ~N50E15 to N30W15. The eruption is best seen in EUV STEREO A 304/195 and SDO AIA 304/171/193. There are a dimming area (mostly to the north) and post-eruptive arcades centered around ~(N35W05). No arrival/glancing blow signature in solar wind.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-17T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-14T13:30Z |
73.50
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-17T15:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-10T23:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Second of two overlapping consecutive faint CMEs in the NW, partially obscured by a pylon in SOHO LASCO C3 and not seen in STEREO A COR2 because of a data gap. One possible source could be an eruption east of AR 3603 centered around N13W23 seen after 2024-03-10T22:45Z in AIA 304/193/171, with small-area but deep dimming and localized bright post-eruptive arcades. Alternative source could be a very minor opening of field lines on/behind the NW limb after 2024-03-10T21:30Z seen in AIA 193. No CME arrival signature in solar wind.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-14T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-11T19:45Z |
62.25
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-14T10:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-10T12:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Super faint partial halo CME seen to the WNW in a few early image frame of coronagraphs, with the source possibly the short-duration M7.4 class flare from AR 3599 (S13W35) and the associated dimming seen north and even NE of this AR in AIA 193/EUVI A 195 starting after 2024-03-10T12:15Z. This faint CME is mostly seen in difference imagery in a few early frames in SOHO LASCO C2, even more faintly in COR2A and is not seen in C3. No CME arrival signature in solar wind.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-14T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-10T20:35Z |
80.42
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-13T23:40Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-03-11T11:20Z |
60.33
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-14T02:20Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-03-05T21:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME appears to have a bright core in initial frames before fading as it progresses throughout the SOHO LASCO C3 field of view. The source is a filament eruption centered around S40E35, but stretches between S25E20 to S55E50 with a southern deflection as it erupts. The eruption begins around 2024-03-06T20:00Z in SDO/AIA and GOES SUVI 304 with associated dimming visible in SDO/AIA 193, brightening in SDO/AIA 304, and minor moving/opening field lines in GOES SUVI 284. A brief post-eruptive arcade is also visible in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 starting around 2024-03-06T00:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-08T21:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-06T11:21Z |
57.65
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.67
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-09T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2024-03-06T21:36Z |
56.40
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-09T03:56Z
|
----
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.335
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-09T08:48Z
(-6.08h, +8.77h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-03-07T17:15Z |
39.55
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T08:47Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: High southern latitude CME visible in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption near AR 3591 (S35E10) with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2024-02-28T20:15Z. Opening/rising field lines and post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171/193.
Not visible in STEREO A COR2 until the CME is almost out of the field of view due to a data gap 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-04T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
15.22
|
----
|
2024-02-29T19:29Z |
61.30
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-04T00:00Z
|
15.22
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T08:47Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.67
CME Note: Bright CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 associated with a M1.5-class flare from AR 3590 (N19W59) starting at 2024-02-28T16:24Z. Dimming visible in SDO AIA 193, rising loops and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and flare with long-lasting post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94/131. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-03T05:00Z
|
-3.78
|
20.0
|
2024-02-29T09:56Z |
70.85
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-04T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
21.22
|
----
|
2024-02-29T16:31Z |
64.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-02T16:44Z
|
-16.05
|
----
|
2024-02-29T17:07Z |
63.67
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-03T09:14Z
|
0.45
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-28T09:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: A relatively faint partial halo CME in the E associated with a faint EUV wave in AIA 193. Its clear source is a C5.1 class flare peaking at 2024-02-28T09:09Z centered (~S15E31)(there is no associated active region). The CME is also associated with a type II radio burst, faint dimming and tightly woven bright but small-area post-eruptive arcades. The CME overlaps with one or two more CMEs to the north of it. A distinct arrival is seen at L1 at 2024-03-03T08:47Z. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-02T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
|
----
|
2024-02-28T17:38Z |
87.15
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-02T06:01Z
(-8.26h, +10.59h)
|
|
----
|
2024-02-29T15:11Z |
65.60
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-02T11:42Z
|
|
----
|
2024-02-29T19:02Z |
61.75
|
----
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-02T23:00Z
|
|
----
|
2024-03-01T13:16Z |
43.52
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-02T13:55Z
|
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-27T11:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the S in all coronagraphs. Reanalysis of this CME from the initial entry finds the source to be front-sided, sourced at a filament centered around S38E02 (spanning approximatley S48W14 to S32E10) at 2024-02-27T08:01Z when it began to lift off best seen in SDO AIA 304. The filament fades moreso than it is observed leaving the disk, but it is the best candidate source and aligned well with coronagraph analysis between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-03-02T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-02-28T16:52Z |
63.13
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-03-02T08:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:16Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-25T09:00Z
|
16.73
|
----
|
2024-02-22T03:17Z |
60.98
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.67
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-24T16:44Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
0.47
|
----
|
2024-02-22T13:46Z |
50.50
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-24T14:44Z
|
-1.53
|
----
|
2024-02-22T14:49Z |
49.45
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-24T15:16Z
(-3.45h, +4.93h)
|
-1.00
|
----
|
2024-02-22T14:56Z |
49.33
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-25T12:19Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
20.05
|
65.0
|
2024-02-23T08:30Z |
31.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-25T03:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
10.73
|
30.0
|
2024-02-24T16:00Z |
0.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-24T23:50Z
|
7.57
|
47.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 4.734
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-16T03:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption spanning N40W05 to N25W35 which begins to lift-off around 2024-02-16T02:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible from this region in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops visible in all SDO wavelengths starting around 2024-02-16T05:00Z. There is no clear signature of this CME arrival/glancing blow at L1. There is a minor unclear arrival signature between 2024-02-20T09:15Z and 11Z, with a relatively smooth rotation of magnetic field components, mainly Bz, and an increase in Bt from around 5 nT to 9.5 nT, however this is likely a signature of a streamer blowout.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-19T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-02-16T16:37Z |
67.38
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-19T19:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-02-16T17:11Z |
73.82
|
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-19T21:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2024-02-17T12:01Z |
56.98
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-19T17:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-02-18T05:44Z |
35.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-19T18:00Z
(-9.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2024-02-19T00:15Z |
17.75
|
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-19T17:24Z
|
----
|
26.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 1.6 - 3.6
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo shock to the north with bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M9.0 flare from AR13576 starting at 2024-02-10T22:56Z with clear deflection NW seen as dimming and EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193, 211, 304, and 171. There is also filament ejecta seen during and following the eruption in SDO/AIA 304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-13T14:43Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.08
|
----
|
2024-02-11T02:58Z |
46.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T19:00Z
|
17.37
|
80.0
|
2024-02-11T04:30Z |
45.13
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T16:46Z
(-4.99h, +5.78h)
|
15.13
|
----
|
2024-02-11T07:56Z |
41.70
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.63
|
----
|
2024-02-11T13:22Z |
36.27
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T14:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
12.73
|
----
|
2024-02-11T13:23Z |
36.25
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T10:00Z
|
8.37
|
70.0
|
2024-02-11T14:16Z |
35.37
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T06:55Z
|
5.28
|
----
|
2024-02-11T16:05Z |
33.55
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T15:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
13.37
|
70.0
|
2024-02-12T06:50Z |
18.80
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T13:42Z
(-18.0h, +18.0h)
|
12.07
|
80.0
|
2024-02-12T10:34Z |
15.07
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
IZMIRAN
|
Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-13T12:23Z
|
10.75
|
75.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.83333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen south of AR 3576, centered around S30E05, which appears to deflect south. This eruption is best seen as dimming starting around 2024-02-10T06:96Z in SDO AIA 193. Following this eruption, post-eruptive arcades/rising loops are seen near AR 3576. This eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO AIA imagery from 2024-02-10T06:55Z-07:22Z. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171 and post-eruptive loops are best seen in SDO AIA 94. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-12T22:31Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.12
|
----
|
2024-02-10T15:52Z |
57.77
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T17:16Z
(-3.0h, +4.88h)
|
-8.37
|
----
|
2024-02-10T16:58Z |
56.67
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T23:00Z
(-11.0h, +13.0h)
|
-2.63
|
70.0
|
2024-02-10T17:55Z |
55.72
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T19:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.58
|
----
|
2024-02-10T18:26Z |
55.20
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T14:52Z
|
-10.77
|
----
|
2024-02-10T20:02Z |
53.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T19:00Z
|
-6.63
|
60.0
|
2024-02-11T02:22Z |
47.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T09:28Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-16.17
|
----
|
2024-02-11T13:20Z |
36.30
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T22:10Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.47
|
----
|
2024-02-11T13:21Z |
36.28
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T18:25Z
|
-7.22
|
65.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.8
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Most clearly visible in a few early frames of SOHO LASCO C3. Overlaps with CME: 2024-02-08T23:48Z in the field of view of the coronagraph. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-08T23:23Z to 2024-02-09T02:23Z. The source is a filament eruption lifting off starting around 2024-02-10T20:00Z in SDO AIA 304, centered around S35W05. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-12T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-11.63
|
----
|
2024-02-10T17:57Z |
55.68
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T19:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.58
|
----
|
2024-02-10T18:26Z |
55.20
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-12T16:31Z
|
-9.12
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T08:24Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is seen as a filament centered around N45E05 lifting off in SDO AIA 304 around 2024-02-06T09:33Z. Dimming can also be seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. | CME arrival note: Brief increases in B_total, temperature, and solar wind speed. Possible flux rope signatures are present in magnetic field parameters following arrival start time. Density increases prior to the arrival.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-10T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.40
|
----
|
2024-02-06T19:53Z |
84.52
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-10T16:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
7.60
|
30.0
|
2024-02-08T15:29Z |
40.92
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-10T12:00Z
|
3.60
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-06T02:53:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-09T21:40Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source of this partial halo CME is an M2.2 class flare from AR 3575 (S34W65) peaked at 2024-02-06T02:28Z and followed by an M4.2 class flare. The flare was associated with a large eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304/171/131 and STEREO EUVI 195 starting at 2024-02-06T02:13Z (ejecta, EUV wave, post-eruptive arcades and circular dimming around them and rising). | Arrival note: Amplification in magnetic field components, with gradual enhancement starting around 2024-02-09T17:30Z, and shock observed starting at 2024-02-09T21:40, with B_total increasing from 7nT to approx. 9.37 nT. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from approx. 387 km/s to approx. 500 km/s and increases in density and temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-09T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-13.67
|
----
|
2024-02-06T13:49Z |
79.85
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-09T02:21Z
|
-19.32
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-08T20:42Z
(-5.41h, +7.45h)
|
-24.97
|
----
|
2024-02-06T15:29Z |
78.18
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-02T04:17:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in all coronagraphs. Source is an eruption from AR 3571 with an associated impulsive M1.1 class flare that peaked at 2024-02-02T03:01Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as field line movement and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and dark filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304. It is possible that the L1 arrival signature unfolding over 2023-02-04 to 2023-02-06 includes the arrival of this (or another) CME arrival, as it includes a drop in temperature and density on 2024-02-05, however the gradual increases in Btotal and solar wind speed as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components are largely more indicative of a high speed stream.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-05T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-02-02T20:58Z |
61.03
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-06T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-02-05T05:26Z |
24.57
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-05T20:00Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:35Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-02-04T18:00Z
|
15.42
|
----
|
2024-02-01T11:18Z |
63.28
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-03T15:41Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-10.90
|
----
|
2024-02-01T13:58Z |
60.62
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-04T02:16Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.32
|
----
|
2024-02-01T14:28Z |
60.12
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-03T21:52Z
(-5.31h, +6.05h)
|
-4.72
|
----
|
2024-02-01T16:44Z |
57.85
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-03T21:07Z
|
-5.47
|
----
|
2024-02-01T17:07Z |
57.47
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-03T20:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.67
|
----
|
2024-02-02T08:36Z |
41.98
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-04T02:43Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
0.13
|
----
|
2024-02-02T08:38Z |
41.95
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-03T14:53Z
(-13.3h, +13.3h)
|
-11.70
|
----
|
2024-02-02T09:14Z |
41.35
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-04T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
1.42
|
40.0
|
2024-02-02T12:49Z |
37.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-04T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
3.42
|
40.0
|
2024-02-02T16:30Z |
34.08
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-02-04T00:44Z
|
-1.85
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-31T06:02Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-23.27
|
----
|
2024-01-29T14:39Z |
62.65
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T09:50Z
(-5.0h, +6.57h)
|
-19.47
|
----
|
2024-01-29T14:51Z |
62.45
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-30T13:47Z
(-12.8h, +12.8h)
|
-39.52
|
----
|
2024-01-29T16:06Z |
61.20
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T06:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
-23.30
|
40.0
|
2024-01-29T16:24Z |
60.90
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T01:52Z
|
-27.43
|
----
|
2024-01-29T17:00Z |
60.30
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-21.30
|
----
|
2024-01-29T18:35Z |
58.72
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-30T20:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-32.38
|
----
|
2024-01-29T20:28Z |
56.83
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T00:00Z
|
-29.30
|
50.0
|
2024-01-30T02:11Z |
51.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T03:00Z
|
-26.30
|
25.0
|
2024-01-30T11:59Z |
41.32
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T14:17Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-15.02
|
----
|
2024-01-31T00:39Z |
28.65
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-31T03:34Z
|
-25.73
|
38.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.42857 - 5.42857
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-24T01:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-28T03:42Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source may be an eruption from AR 3561 (approx. S17W45) best seen as brightening and moving field lines in SDO AIA 193. Candidate associated flare is an M2.6 class flare peaking at 2024-01-24T01:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. It is also observed in STEREO A EUV imagery. A wider shock appears to be visible in the coronagraph imagery ahead of the bulk of the CME. The start of the possible arrival signature for this CME is approximate. The signature is characterized by gradual increase in B total to 12nT, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components and a drop in temperature. A drop in density happens closer to 2024-01-24T12Z. Alternatively, this signature could be the late arrival (glancing blow) of 2024-01-23T17:36Z CME and/or a minor coronal hole high speed stream.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-28T02:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-1.70
|
20.0
|
2024-01-24T15:13Z |
84.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-28T02:00Z
|
-1.70
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-23T17:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-28T03:42Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in all coronagraphs. Source is very likely an M4.3 class flare from AR 3561 (S17W39) which peaked at 2024-01-23T16:40Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as opening field lines and a small dimming region in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and some filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304. Potential CME arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 12nT at 2024-01-28T09:34Z and by rotation of two magnetic field components. Closer to 10Z there is rotation of all three magnetic field components and a drop in density. However, this arrival signature is also characterised by a slow increase in solar wind speed from ~350 km/s to just under 490 km/s around 2024-01-29T03Z, accompanied by minor increase in temperature, possibly indicating an admixture of a brief coronal hole high speed stream. Alternative CME candidate could be 2024-01-24T01:36Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-27T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-19.70
|
----
|
2024-01-24T14:06Z |
85.60
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T09:00Z
|
-42.70
|
----
|
2024-01-24T18:07Z |
81.58
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -191
Dst min. time: 2024-01-26T17:00Z
|
Anemomilos
|
WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T20:30Z
|
-31.20
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-23T07:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 until 2024-01-23T12:09Z due to a data gap. The candidate source may be from AR 3561 (approx. S15W35), which had a C9.6 class flare peaking at 2024-01-23T07:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Brightening and opening field lines can also be seen in SDO AIA 171/193. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-26T13:26Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-24T17:29Z |
43.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T11:27Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-25T07:27Z |
28.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T12:26Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-23T04:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. Source is an eruption from AR 13561 at S19W31. Dimming and EUV wave with southward deflection seen in SDO AIA 193 around S19W31 starting at 2024-01-23T03:15Z. Opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This CME is associated with a flare from Active Region 13561 (S19W31), which occurs simultaneously with a higher intensity flare from Active Region 13559 (N29E18). The combined flux of this flaring activity is the M5.1 flare with peak time 2024-01-23T03:31Z. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap lasting from 2024-01-23T03:53Z to 2024-01-23T12:23Z. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-26T16:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2024-01-23T16:34Z |
71.43
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T14:19Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-23T22:17Z |
64.03
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T14:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-24T00:33Z |
61.82
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T13:26Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-24T17:29Z |
43.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-25T22:57Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-25T05:57Z |
17.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T11:24Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.2
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-23T03:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Fast but faint CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. Source is an eruption from Active Region 13559 (N29E18). Opening field lines and brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 at 2024-01-23T03:21Z. Brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2024-01-23T03:21Z. This CME is associated with a flare from Active Region 13559 (N29E18), which occurs simultaneously with a lower intensity flare from Active Region 3561 (S19W31). The combined flux of this flaring activity is the M5.1 flare with peak time 2024-01-23T03:31Z. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap lasting from 2024-01-23T03:53Z to 2024-01-23T12:23Z. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-26T17:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-24T17:43Z |
47.28
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T09:19Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T01:38Z
(-3.94h, +5.41h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-24T23:39Z |
25.98
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-22T22:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is fairly faint in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source appears to be an M3.4 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:21Z and/or an M1.6 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:43Z. There are opening field lines visible with this close to the flaring region as seen in SDO/AIA 193. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-26T13:40Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
25.0
|
2024-01-23T16:37Z |
69.05
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-27T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-23T22:37Z |
75.38
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T14:22Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-24T00:33Z |
61.82
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T13:26Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-24T17:29Z |
43.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T16:52Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T05:35Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-25T13:59Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.40
|
----
|
2024-01-22T17:54Z |
59.68
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-25T01:21Z
(-6.02h, +8.75h)
|
-4.23
|
----
|
2024-01-22T18:13Z |
59.37
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-24T23:40Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-5.92
|
50.0
|
2024-01-22T19:15Z |
58.33
|
----
|
sunRunner1D
|
Pete Riley (PSI) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-25T00:58Z
|
-4.62
|
----
|
2024-01-22T19:25Z |
58.17
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-25T17:20Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
11.75
|
70.0
|
2024-01-23T16:30Z |
37.08
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-26T00:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
18.42
|
40.0
|
2024-01-24T05:00Z |
24.58
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-25T09:33Z
|
3.97
|
53.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME overlaps partially with the faint CME seen to the E/SE starting at 2024-01-20T23:12Z. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption and associated flaring seen in AR13559. The filament sat along the lower boundary of this active region, stretching from ~N20E32 to N25E50 and is centered around N20E41. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of the CME seen at 2024-01-20T09:24Z and this CME beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-23T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
27.98
|
----
|
2024-01-21T16:47Z |
23.23
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T12:56Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.08
|
----
|
2024-01-21T17:04Z |
22.95
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T05:59Z
|
13.97
|
----
|
2024-01-21T17:31Z |
22.50
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T22:11Z
(-10.72h, +10.76h)
|
30.17
|
----
|
2024-01-21T18:22Z |
21.65
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T13:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
20.98
|
----
|
2024-01-21T22:10Z |
17.85
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T20:00Z
|
27.98
|
50.0
|
2024-01-22T01:50Z |
14.18
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T11:41Z
|
19.67
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.8 - 5.4
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-22T13:19Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.70
|
----
|
2024-01-20T16:38Z |
47.38
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T08:00Z
|
-8.02
|
----
|
2024-01-20T17:16Z |
46.75
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T06:00Z
(-9.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.98
|
70.0
|
2024-01-20T17:24Z |
46.62
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T05:45Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-10.27
|
----
|
2024-01-20T18:49Z |
45.20
|
----
|
sunRunner1D
|
Pete Riley (PSI) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T18:22Z
(-3.54h, +4.61h)
|
2.35
|
----
|
2024-01-20T19:08Z |
44.88
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T16:59Z
|
0.97
|
----
|
2024-01-20T19:10Z |
44.85
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +6.0h)
|
1.98
|
80.0
|
2024-01-21T00:35Z |
39.43
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T11:08Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.88
|
----
|
2024-01-21T12:10Z |
27.85
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T00:13Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.20
|
----
|
2024-01-21T12:12Z |
27.82
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T12:56Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.08
|
----
|
2024-01-21T17:04Z |
22.95
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-23T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
13.98
|
75.0
|
2024-01-21T17:44Z |
22.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T16:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
0.48
|
80.0
|
2024-01-21T20:32Z |
19.48
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T18:00Z
|
1.98
|
80.0
|
2024-01-22T01:37Z |
14.40
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T12:29Z
(-13.0h, +13.0h)
|
-3.53
|
----
|
2024-01-22T10:54Z |
5.12
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Eva Weiler (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-22T16:50Z
|
0.82
|
77.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.44444 - 6.44444
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-09T15:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Filament eruption seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and for a few frames of STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption in the SE quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from about E60 to E15 at latitude S35. Liftoff can be seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2024-01-09T13:00Z. Opening field lines and the rise of a flux rope are seen in SDO AIA 171 and dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 around 14:00Z. Data gap in STEREO A COR2 Beacon imagery lasting from 2024-01-09T15:53Z to 2024-01-10T01:23Z so CME is not captured at all. CME partially overlaps with another filament eruption CME to the southeast.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-12T09:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-10T14:42Z |
42.30
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-12T02:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-10T17:45Z |
32.75
|
----
|
sunRunner1D
|
Pete Riley (PSI) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-12T08:21Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-10T19:21Z |
37.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-12T10:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-12T20:09Z
(-8.85h, +11.42h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-11T01:58Z |
42.18
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-06T17:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source is the second instance of dimming seen in SDO AIA 193, located at E45 and stretching from N25-N35, starting at 2024-01-06T16:20Z. Source also includes the lovely rising loop seen in SDO AIA 171, which is first visible off the NE limb at about 2024-01-06T15:30Z with field line movement at the suspected footpoints on the disk at N25E45 and N25E35. Post-eruptive arcades seen starting at 2024-01-06T18:48Z between the two suspected footpoints. There was no STEREO A COR2 imagery available for this CME due to a large data gap from 2024-01-06T09:23Z to 2024-01-07T04:09Z. There was no clear arrival for this CME. An increase in solar wind speed at L1 just prior to 2024-01-10T18:00Z may be a weak coronal hole high speed stream and possible weak CME arrival.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-10T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-07T20:59Z |
52.02
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-10T01:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-06T08:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source is likely a large dimming region in the vicinity of AR 3536 which begins around 2024-01-06T05:04Z (best observed in GOES SUVI 171/195 due to an SDO outage at the time) and spanned about E20->W10 and N03->S08, deflected largely south and east from the AR. A complex multi-peaked flare best observed in GOES SUVI 131 occurred with this event, prompting 4 separate mid-level C-class flares associated with this event. GOES SUVI 304 also observed some darker, filamentary material lifting off and deflecting to the SE. There is no clear evidence of CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-09T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-06T23:55Z |
50.08
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-10T00:01Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
2024-01-07T01:11Z |
70.83
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-09T13:00Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2024-01-05T01:53:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Bright CME in the SE with the source is likely a significant eruption just SE of AR 3536 (N06E23) seen in AIA and SUVI 304 starting at 2024-01-05T00:20Z, with an EUV wave seen in AIA 193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2024-01-08T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
8.0
|
2024-01-05T16:16Z |
67.73
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-08T18:00Z
|
----
|
40.0
|
2024-01-07T01:07Z |
40.88
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-07T22:57Z
|
----
|
----
|
2024-01-07T01:10Z |
21.78
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2024-01-08T09:39Z
|
----
|
24.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME Scoreboard