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CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time & Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Click here to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

No Active CME

Past CMEs:

CME: 2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T16:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: Signature is very weak and difficult to discern exact time. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: Around ~21 hrs on the May 16, there is a monotonic change in the magnetic field direction that can be associated with a flux rope signature.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-05-17T15:00Z 22.83 ---- 2019-05-13T20:00Z 68.17 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -31
Anemomilos Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-16T19:15Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 3.08 ---- 2019-05-14T00:01Z 64.15 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Ethan Robinett (CUA) Detail
2019-05-17T12:00Z 19.83 ---- 2019-05-14T01:17Z 62.88 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-05-16T11:36Z -4.57 ---- 2019-05-14T05:44Z 58.43 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2019-05-16T14:00Z -2.17 ---- 2019-05-14T06:26Z 57.73 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-05-16T20:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.48 ---- 2019-05-14T08:00Z 56.17 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2019-05-16T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 1.83 50.0 2019-05-14T12:45Z 51.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2019-05-17T02:00Z 9.83 ---- 2019-05-15T00:30Z 39.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-19T00:00Z 55.83 ---- 2019-05-15T15:15Z 24.92 Max Kp Range: -- - 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -66
Dst min. time: 2019-05-19T06:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2019-05-17T06:18Z 14.13 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 5.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2019-05-12T19:54:00-CME-001
This CME did not hit Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: There is no clear signature arrival for this specific CME. The arrival attributed to the 2019-05-13T16:09Z CME is also very weak and difficult to be certain about it.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-05-16T09:00Z ---- 90.0 2019-05-13T04:26Z 76.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -125
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-05-15T14:52Z ---- ---- 2019-05-13T05:30Z 57.37 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2019-05-16T10:00Z ---- ---- 2019-05-13T08:00Z 74.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-05-16T21:04Z (-4.0h, +4.0h) ---- ---- 2019-05-13T08:30Z 84.57 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2019-05-18T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 70.0 2019-05-13T11:23Z 108.62 ---- DBM + ESWF Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2019-05-16T06:00Z ---- ---- 2019-05-13T12:30Z 65.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-16T10:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- 40.0 2019-05-13T12:30Z 69.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2019-05-16T07:25Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2019-05-13T13:12Z 66.22 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Ethan Robinett (CUA) Detail
2019-05-16T09:57Z ---- ---- 2019-05-14T08:59Z 48.97 ---- CAT-PUMA Jiajia Liu (UoS) Detail
2019-05-16T12:00Z ---- ---- 2019-05-14T12:40Z 47.33 ---- Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-16T12:25Z ---- 66.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.2
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-05-15T05:00Z 30.90 ---- 2019-05-11T11:06Z 59.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-05-16T07:00Z 56.90 ---- 2019-05-11T11:30Z 58.60 ---- Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-15T10:15Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 36.15 ---- 2019-05-11T14:40Z 55.43 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) chiu wiegand (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-15T04:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 29.90 80.0 2019-05-11T20:35Z 49.52 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2019-05-15T07:00Z 32.90 ---- 2019-05-12T01:55Z 44.18 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-05-15T02:00Z 27.90 ---- 2019-05-12T03:00Z 43.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-14T23:50Z (-4.0h, +4.0h) 25.73 ---- 2019-05-12T10:00Z 36.10 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2019-05-14T10:01Z 11.92 ---- 2019-05-13T19:20Z 2.77 ---- CAT-PUMA Jiajia Liu (UoS) Detail
2019-05-15T05:38Z 31.53 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2019-05-10T19:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-05-15T12:00Z 37.90 ---- 2019-05-11T11:30Z 58.60 ---- Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-14T23:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 25.50 ---- 2019-05-11T13:42Z 56.40 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Ethan Robinett (CUA) Detail
2019-05-15T10:00Z 35.90 ---- 2019-05-12T01:45Z 44.35 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-05-15T02:00Z 27.90 ---- 2019-05-12T03:00Z 43.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-15T05:54Z 31.80 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2019-05-07T04:42:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-10T16:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This is an extremely faint CME and a possible partial halo seen going to the South East in C3. There could be several potential associated eruptions associated with it, with no definite clarity. Now that C2 images are available, it seems that most probably the CME is associated with a slow lift off of a long N-S oriented filament north from the AR 2740. The CME has an unusually-shaped front (as seen in STA and in difference C3 imagery).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-05-10T15:00Z -1.92 ---- 2019-05-07T18:16Z 70.65 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-05-10T12:00Z -4.92 ---- 2019-05-07T21:38Z 67.28 ---- Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-11T12:00Z 19.08 ---- 2019-05-08T12:30Z 52.42 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-05-11T06:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h) 13.08 ---- 2019-05-08T19:24Z 45.52 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2019-05-10T23:15Z 6.33 ---- --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-24T20:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-03-23T11:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -33.53 ---- 2019-03-20T17:23Z 99.33 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Beryl HovisAfflerbach (CCMC) Detail
2019-03-23T15:22Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -29.35 97.0 2019-03-20T17:23Z 99.33 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) M Crawford (CCMC) Detail
2019-03-24T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -20.72 ---- 2019-03-20T17:35Z 99.13 ---- Other (SIDC) Yihua Zheng (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-23T05:54Z -38.82 ---- 2019-03-20T19:10Z 97.55 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2019-03-23T12:00Z -32.72 ---- 2019-03-20T21:51Z 94.87 Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yihua Zheng (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-23T07:00Z -37.72 ---- 2019-03-20T23:45Z 92.97 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-03-23T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -26.72 60.0 2019-03-21T01:05Z 91.63 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2019-03-23T15:00Z -29.72 ---- 2019-03-21T06:20Z 86.38 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-03-23T02:16Z -42.45 ---- 2019-03-21T06:40Z 86.05 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2019-03-23T20:38Z -24.08 ---- 2019-03-21T06:44Z 85.98 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2019-03-25T12:50Z (-24.0h, +12.0h) 16.12 80.0 2019-03-21T08:05Z 84.63 ---- DBM + ESWF Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2019-03-23T15:47Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -28.93 ---- 2019-03-21T08:30Z 84.22 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2019-03-24T03:50Z -16.88 ---- 2019-03-21T11:29Z 81.23 ---- CAT-PUMA Jiajia Liu (UoS) Detail
2019-03-23T18:08Z -26.58 79.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.2 - 5.16667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2019-03-08T04:17:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-12T02:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large eruption from AR 2734 at 03:11Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-03-12T12:00Z 10.00 ---- 2019-03-08T13:47Z 84.22 ---- Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-11T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -8.00 ---- 2019-03-08T15:47Z 82.22 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) M Crawford (CCMC) Detail
2019-03-11T13:00Z -13.00 ---- 2019-03-08T18:45Z 79.25 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-10T17:00Z -33.00 ---- 2019-03-09T00:30Z 73.50 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-12T03:52Z (-4.0h, +4.0h) 1.87 ---- 2019-03-09T08:30Z 65.50 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2019-03-13T04:00Z (-15.0h, +12.0h) 26.00 100.0 2019-03-09T10:10Z 63.83 ---- DBM Mateja Dumbovic (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2019-03-11T11:00Z -15.00 ---- 2019-03-10T10:40Z 39.33 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-03-11T07:00Z -19.00 ---- 2019-03-11T01:51Z 24.15 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-03-11T19:44Z -6.27 100.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Previous Predictions in 2018

Previous Predictions in 2017

Previous Predictions in 2016

Previous Predictions in 2015

Previous Predictions in 2014

Previous Predictions in 2013
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CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand