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CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

CME: 2021-09-22T05:00:00-CME-001
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-09-26T12:00Z ---- 10.0 2021-09-23T15:23Z 68.62 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-09-26T12:00Z ---- 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Past CMEs:

CME: 2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-003
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
No Prediction Entered for this CME yet!

CME: 2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-002
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Possible glancing blow.
No Prediction Entered for this CME yet!

CME: 2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Possible glancing blow.
No Prediction Entered for this CME yet!

CME: 2021-09-23T05:36:00-CME-002
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T22:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: M1.9 flare from 23/1528Z AR2871.
No Prediction Entered for this CME yet!

CME: 2021-09-23T05:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T22:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: From M2.7 flare 23/0444Z. Appears to be a direct hit.
No Prediction Entered for this CME yet!

CME: 2021-09-18T14:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faintly visible in the SSW in STEREO A COR2 and in the SSE in SOHO LASCO/C2. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S40E30, visible in SDO AIA 193/304 beginning 2021-09-18T13:45Z. Originally logged in CME Scoreboard with observed time of 2021-09-18T15:24Z, changed to reflect DONKI entry time 2021-09-18T14:53Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-09-21T14:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) ---- 70.0 2021-09-19T00:26Z 61.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-09-21T14:00Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-09-16T22:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.98 ---- 2021-09-13T21:55Z 75.57 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office) Detail
2021-09-17T09:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 7.52 60.0 2021-09-14T15:21Z 58.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-09-17T01:35Z (-1.3h, +0.6h) 0.10 15.0 2021-09-14T23:46Z 49.72 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2021-09-17T06:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 5.40 ---- 2021-09-15T07:00Z 42.48 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-09-16T14:56Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -10.55 ---- 2021-09-15T07:10Z 42.32 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-09-17T01:22Z -0.12 37.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-09-09T01:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -23.95 ---- 2021-09-06T19:48Z 77.73 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-09-08T19:17Z -30.25 ---- 2021-09-07T06:00Z 67.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-09-10T05:00Z 3.47 20.0 2021-09-07T08:35Z 64.95 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-09-09T06:21Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -19.18 ---- 2021-09-07T12:20Z 61.20 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-09-08T22:41Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -26.85 ---- 2021-09-07T12:30Z 61.03 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-09-09T12:06Z (-17.3h, +20.5h) -13.43 77.0 2021-09-08T01:52Z 47.67 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-09-09T07:10Z -18.37 48.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.25
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-09-04T23:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The start time of the CME is possibly earlier than indicated (updated from original time of 2021-09-05T01:09Z). There was missing data in COR2A before the indicated start time. The eruption was associated with a B4.5 flare that started at 2021-09-04T21:06Z and peaked at 2021-09-04T21:33Z. There was EUV wave signature associated with the eruption and visible in SDO/AIA 193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: No discernable arrival signature was observed for this CME in the avilable data.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-09-09T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-09-05T16:05Z 91.92 Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-09-09T21:00Z ---- 20.0 2021-09-07T08:27Z 60.55 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-09-09T06:15Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2021-09-07T12:00Z 42.25 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-09-08T07:21Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2021-09-07T12:10Z 19.18 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-09-09T05:39Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-08-28T07:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-03T06:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is a M4.7 class flare peaking at 2021-08-28T06:11Z from active region 12860 located at S28E00 at the time of the eruption. This eruption is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO/AIA wavelengths. An EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211 starting around 2021-08-28T06:00Z, propagating northward, followed by a post-eruptive arcade starting around 2021-08-28T07:20Z. A dimming region is visible above the brightening active region during the EUV wave. Some plasma material is also visible lifting off during this eruption shortly after the flare peaks. Arrival characterized by slow magnetic field amplitude rise (reaching only 6.5 nT), accompanied by density/temperature rise, followed by field component rotation, density/tempurature drop, and speed rise. Followed by a SSBC at 2021-09-03T12:12Z, which obscures the later part of the ICME arrival signature.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-09-01T00:00Z -54.32 ---- 2021-08-28T16:00Z 134.32 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2021-09-02T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -30.32 ---- 2021-08-28T17:43Z 132.60 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-09-01T14:35Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -39.73 ---- 2021-08-29T07:20Z 118.98 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-31T14:54Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -63.42 ---- 2021-08-29T07:30Z 118.82 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-09-01T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -36.32 ---- 2021-08-30T02:54Z 99.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-09-01T01:00Z (-8.0h, +12.0h) -53.32 60.0 2021-08-30T13:30Z 88.82 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-09-01T08:04Z -46.25 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 4.33333
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-08-27T00:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME seen SE in C2 and later in the W in COR2A, front is too faint to be seen in C3. Source is an eruption in AR 2860 seen at 2021-08-26T23:30Z in AIA 193 (followed by a filament eruption seen in AIA 304).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-08-31T05:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-08-28T00:38Z 76.87 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-31T04:59Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2021-08-29T07:00Z 45.98 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-30T07:22Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2021-08-29T07:10Z 24.20 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-30T21:57Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-08-26T18:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-08-29T10:30Z (-7.5h, +7.5h) ---- ---- 2021-08-27T06:45Z 51.75 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -100
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-08-30T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 70.0 2021-08-27T09:03Z 73.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2021-08-29T20:00Z ---- ---- 2021-08-27T16:00Z 52.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-29T18:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-08-27T19:57Z 46.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-29T16:11Z ---- ---- 2021-08-27T20:00Z 44.18 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-08-29T13:20Z (-13.83h, +16.63h) ---- 95.0 2021-08-27T22:54Z 38.43 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-29T22:58Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2021-08-28T07:00Z 39.97 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-29T18:43Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2021-08-28T07:10Z 35.55 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-29T23:00Z ---- ---- 2021-08-28T16:00Z 31.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2021-08-29T19:50Z ---- 82.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.6 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T11:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint CME seen in LASCO only. Source is a significant eruption from AR 2859 preceded by a B8.8 flare peaking at 2021-08-24T12:16Z. Dark material can be seen moving off the disk in SDO AIA 304 and 193 starting after 2021-08-24T12:03Z and a darkening with an EIT wave can be seen in EUVIA 195 starting after 2021-08-24T12:05Z. Arrival note: There is an increase of B total to over 16 nT, with a period of negative Bz reaching -13nT. There is no increase in solar wind speed at DSCOVR.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-08-28T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 15.30 ---- 2021-08-26T15:57Z 19.75 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-27T22:00Z 10.30 ---- 2021-08-27T06:50Z 4.87 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-08-28T05:13Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 17.52 ---- 2021-08-27T07:00Z 4.70 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-27T16:34Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 4.87 ---- 2021-08-27T07:10Z 4.53 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-27T23:39Z (-3.0h, +3.0h) 11.95 68.75 2021-08-27T10:04Z 1.63 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-27T23:41Z 11.98 68.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-08-23T06:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T00:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The CME is a partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is in the NW of STA COR2A. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center seen at 02:00Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. The L1 arrival signature seen by DSCOVR is characterized by a simultaneous jump in SW density, magnetic field and speed (from 360 to 420 km/s), as well as rotation of magnetic field components.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-08-26T20:25Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.00 ---- 2021-08-23T19:52Z 76.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2021-08-27T03:27Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 3.03 ---- 2021-08-24T07:00Z 65.42 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-26T11:13Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -13.20 ---- 2021-08-24T07:10Z 65.25 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-27T09:00Z 8.58 ---- 2021-08-24T07:12Z 65.22 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-08-26T20:13Z (-3.0h, +3.0h) -4.20 100.0 2021-08-24T09:00Z 63.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-27T23:00Z 22.58 ---- 2021-08-25T00:00Z 48.42 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-26T03:23Z -21.03 ---- 2021-08-25T09:16Z 39.15 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-08-27T12:15Z 11.83 ---- 2021-08-25T09:18Z 39.12 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-08-27T08:00Z 7.58 ---- 2021-08-25T21:12Z 27.22 ---- Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-26T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -6.42 ---- 2021-08-26T05:26Z 18.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-08-27T00:53Z 0.47 100.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-29T00:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-02T09:03Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Partial halo SE in SOHO LASCO/C2, W in STEREO A COR2, both very faint. Associated with a filament eruption centered at S20W10 (near AR 12849), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-28T22:01Z. From Lan: There seems to be a CME encounter at about 9:10 – 19:00 UT on Aug 2, characterized by increased magnetic field strength, some magnetic field rotations (not smooth though), and low proton temperature. The quiet magnetic field on Aug 3 in the region after the “CME” might be due to the stretching of field lines.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-31T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -35.05 20.0 2021-07-29T12:39Z 92.40 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-08-02T11:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.45 ---- 2021-07-29T14:10Z 90.88 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-08-02T08:13Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.83 ---- 2021-07-30T07:00Z 74.05 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-01T08:30Z (-6.0h, +12.0h) -24.55 ---- 2021-07-30T07:00Z 74.05 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-08-01T18:33Z -14.50 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-27T03:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is an eruption from AR 2849 (~S15E25) in AIA 193, AIA 304, and EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-07-27T01:51Z, with darkening and bright post-eruptive arcades. It is associated with the long duration B1.9 class flare peaking at 2021-07-27T02:13Z
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-30T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-27T18:50Z 66.17 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-30T22:27Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-28T07:00Z 63.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-30T07:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-28T07:00Z 48.60 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
0021-07-30T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 50.0 2021-07-28T14:54Z 364054.17 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-07-30T14:21Z (-10.5h, +10.5h) ---- ---- 2021-07-28T20:25Z 41.93 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
1621-07-30T04:16Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-26T16:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo to the southwest in SOHO LASCO/C2, to the west in COR2A. Associated with an eruption from AR 12847 (near S30E00), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-07-26T14:57Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-29T15:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-26T19:38Z 67.65 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-29T11:38Z ---- ---- 2021-07-26T21:20Z 62.30 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-07-29T20:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-27T07:00Z 61.55 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-29T16:41Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-27T07:00Z 57.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-28T17:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) ---- 75.0 2021-07-27T12:53Z 28.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-29T23:17Z (-7.8h, +9.3h) ---- ---- 2021-07-28T05:29Z 41.80 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-29T13:24Z ---- 75.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-24T00:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible to the east in SOHO LASCO/C2 and C3; halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with eruption from AR 12849 (S18E47), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-23T23:42Z, and associated with C4.3 flare beginning 2021-07-23T23:54Z. From Lan Jian: no clear features of iCME arrival found on 07-26 to 07-28 (stream interface seen at ~2021-07-28T04:50Z).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-27T00:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-24T12:00Z 60.72 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-27T05:09Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-24T12:00Z 65.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-27T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-24T14:05Z 65.92 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-26T23:59Z ---- 50.0 2021-07-24T16:49Z 55.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -34
Dst min. time: 2021-07-27T10:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2021-07-26T20:38Z (-0.6h, +0.6h) ---- ---- 2021-07-24T22:02Z 46.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-29T12:00Z ---- ---- 2021-07-26T05:50Z 78.17 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-07-27T11:44Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-22T14:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-25T18:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the west in SOHO LASCO/C2, STEREO A COR2. May be associated with an eruption from AR 12848 (N20E08), visible in SDO AIA 304/193/171 beginning 2021-07-22T12:10Z, followed by EUV wave indicating a more southwestward ejection. Arrival indicated by weak but sudden increase in field amplitude, accompanied by speed increase and field component rotation. Preceded by brief pileup and temperature increase. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only. This is a weak CME arrival, perhaps combined with a weak HSS arrival, with no candidate CH other than the patchy equatorial bit around W50.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-26T13:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 18.87 ---- 2021-07-24T12:00Z 30.83 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-25T19:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.75 ---- 2021-07-24T12:00Z 30.83 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-26T12:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 17.67 ---- 2021-07-24T15:18Z 27.53 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-26T07:15Z 12.42 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-20T16:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-25T06:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Eruption associated with a B5.4 flare from AR2846. Arrival is a very weak signature, no real shock, only a gentle rise in Btotal accompanied by Bx-Bz field rotation. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-23T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -37.37 ---- 2021-07-21T18:30Z 83.87 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-22T21:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -57.18 ---- 2021-07-22T12:00Z 66.37 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-23T09:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -44.78 ---- 2021-07-22T12:00Z 66.37 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-23T07:55Z -46.45 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-13T04:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in SE of SOHO LASCO/C2 beginning 2021-07-13T04:24Z and in SW of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-07-13T09:53Z. May be associated with EUV wave and dimming just NW of AR 12841 (near S10E30) visible in SDO AIA 171 beginning 2021-07-13T01:39Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-16T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-13T17:26Z 67.57 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-16T13:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-07-10T13:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-14T10:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: May be associated with a filament eruption near S30E25, faintly visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2021-07-10T09:21Z and in STEREO A EUVI 304 between 2021-07-10T08:15Z and 2021-07-10T10:15Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-14T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.00 ---- 2021-07-10T18:32Z 87.47 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-14T12:28Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 2.47 ---- 2021-07-12T00:00Z 58.00 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-13T18:57Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -15.05 ---- 2021-07-12T00:00Z 58.00 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-14T04:28Z -5.53 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-06-29T10:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption and subsequent EUV wave observed from the unnumbered active region centered near N20E05 on the Earth-facing disk starting around 2021-06-29T05:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: There was no arrival detected by DSCOVR/ACE data.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-03T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-06-29T19:16Z 94.73 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-02T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- ---- 2021-06-30T06:35Z 59.42 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-07-03T08:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 70.0 2021-06-30T07:00Z 73.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-07-03T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2021-06-30T09:28Z 74.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-03T17:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-01T00:00Z 65.93 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-02T18:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2021-07-01T00:00Z 42.77 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-07-03T07:27Z ---- 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.25
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-06-27T02:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-01T02:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME observed leaving the western hemisphere, evidenced initially by coronal hole dimming on SDO AIA193. Analysis suggests a possible Earth-directed component, observed from around 27/0200Z quite clearly on SOHO C2/C3 and Stereo A COR2. Note from T. Nieves-Chincilla and L. Jian on CME arrival signature at L1: a clear flux rope on 07-01 from ~2:30 to ~14:15 with North polarity and some erosion at the front. This flux rope is embedded within the fast wind part of a CIR.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-07-01T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 17.50 15.0 2021-06-28T12:21Z 62.15 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-07-01T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 9.50 30.0 2021-06-28T12:35Z 61.92 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-07-01T16:00Z 13.50 22.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-06-15T04:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-20T11:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The arrival for this CME is very uncertain. There are weak signatures of ICMEs around this time, but it looks like it could be more than one.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-06-20T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -11.35 30.0 2021-06-16T18:20Z 89.02 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-06-19T23:00Z -12.35 50.0 2021-06-19T00:15Z 35.10 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-06-19T23:30Z -11.85 40.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-02T12:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824. The CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: "The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that" possibly indicative of a "CIR+ICME event."
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-31T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -47.33 15.0 2021-05-29T12:34Z 95.77 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-06-01T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -36.33 30.0 2021-05-29T12:45Z 95.58 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-06-01T06:00Z -30.33 ---- 2021-05-29T14:55Z 93.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hayley Austin (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-31T08:26Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -51.90 ---- 2021-05-29T18:00Z 90.33 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-31T17:32Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -42.80 ---- 2021-05-29T18:15Z 90.08 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-31T18:35Z -41.75 22.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-23T17:38:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Associated with eruption from AR 2824 (N21E04) at 2021-05-23T17:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304. The eruption's EUV signature shows material deflected westward. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-26T07:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -21.58 ---- 2021-05-24T20:17Z 56.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T12:30Z (-3.1h, +4.8h) -16.70 54.0 2021-05-25T18:13Z 34.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T14:10Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.03 ---- 2021-05-25T22:00Z 31.20 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-26T15:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.80 ---- 2021-05-25T22:00Z 31.20 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-26T12:25Z -16.78 54.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-23T11:38:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E7) at 11:03Z associated with an M1.1 flare peaked at 11:26Z. A large amount of material moving quickly to the west of the AR in AIA 193/304/171 after the eruption. This CME appears faster than the 2021-05-23T09:53Z CME, and caught up to it in the LASCO C2 imagery, and then appeared as one CME in the C3 imagery. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-26T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -26.20 70.0 2021-05-23T15:09Z 86.05 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T03:00Z -50.20 ---- 2021-05-23T16:30Z 84.70 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -46
Dst min. time: 2021-05-25T13:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2021-05-26T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.20 ---- 2021-05-23T19:15Z 81.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T23:58Z -29.23 ---- 2021-05-24T15:10Z 62.03 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-05-26T01:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -28.02 ---- 2021-05-24T16:40Z 60.53 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-26T07:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -21.88 ---- 2021-05-24T16:45Z 60.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-26T07:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -21.58 ---- 2021-05-24T20:17Z 56.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T12:30Z (-3.1h, +4.8h) -16.70 54.0 2021-05-25T18:13Z 34.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T06:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h) -23.20 50.0 2021-05-25T21:45Z 31.45 Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-05-26T03:23Z -25.82 58.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.71429
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-23T09:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-27T05:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. The source an eruption from AR 2824 (N21E8) associated with a C2.4 flare seen best in AIA 304 with some dark material to W of the AR after brightening beginning 09:19Z. A smaller flare and dark material from the same region 08:00Z. ARRIVAL: T.Nieves-Chinchilla: Signatures of flux rope(s) between 05-26T18Z - 05-27T5:00Z: either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. A structure with flux rope signatures starting before 0527T06:00Z with SN rotation in Bz and low temperature. Bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression; it seems that there is interaction.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-26T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.20 ---- 2021-05-23T19:15Z 81.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-26T09:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -19.65 ---- 2021-05-24T16:25Z 60.78 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-26T08:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -20.65 ---- 2021-05-24T16:35Z 60.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-26T01:36Z -27.60 ---- 2021-05-24T18:00Z 59.20 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-05-26T07:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -21.58 ---- 2021-05-24T20:17Z 56.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T12:30Z (-3.1h, +4.8h) -16.70 54.0 2021-05-25T18:13Z 34.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T08:58Z -20.23 54.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-22T22:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large eruption from AR 2824 (N20E15) at 21:31Z, visible in SDO AIA imagery as well as STA EUVI 195. This eruption is associated with an M1.4 flare. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-25T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -22.62 70.0 2021-05-23T06:51Z 76.77 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.62 ---- 2021-05-23T17:02Z 66.58 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T14:52Z -20.75 ---- 2021-05-24T15:00Z 44.62 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-05-25T21:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -14.55 ---- 2021-05-24T16:20Z 43.28 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-25T20:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.02 ---- 2021-05-24T16:25Z 43.20 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-25T14:04Z (-4.8h, +8.3h) -21.55 98.0 2021-05-24T23:09Z 36.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T06:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h) -5.62 80.0 2021-05-25T21:40Z 13.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-05-25T19:05Z -16.53 82.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.8
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Ejected material is seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304 after 05-22T15:21Z mostly to the West from AR 2824. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-26T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -9.62 70.0 2021-05-22T21:26Z 86.18 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.62 ---- 2021-05-23T17:02Z 66.58 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T19:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -16.02 ---- 2021-05-24T16:00Z 43.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-25T15:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -19.75 ---- 2021-05-24T16:15Z 43.37 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-25T14:04Z (-4.8h, +8.3h) -21.55 98.0 2021-05-24T23:09Z 36.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-25T19:06Z -16.52 84.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Source is eruption from AR 2824 at 06:15Z, with dimming towards the S of the AR. Material moving after 06:45Z to the W from AR. In STA Cor2 it is seen as two CMEs, NW one at 08:23 and SW one at 09:38 (the later might be associated with a C-class flare at 06:45Z). The CMEs are seen as one in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3. CME ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-26T23:27Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 11.83 40.0 2021-05-22T15:54Z 91.72 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T21:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -14.62 ---- 2021-05-22T23:59Z 83.63 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.62 ---- 2021-05-23T17:02Z 66.58 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-25T17:45Z -17.87 ---- 2021-05-23T17:29Z 66.13 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-25T21:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -14.22 ---- 2021-05-24T07:00Z 52.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-25T11:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -24.25 ---- 2021-05-24T07:15Z 52.37 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-25T14:04Z (-4.8h, +8.3h) -21.55 98.0 2021-05-24T23:09Z 36.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-26T00:00Z (-3.0h, +9.0h) -11.62 60.0 2021-05-25T21:30Z 14.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-05-25T22:07Z -13.50 66.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-19T01:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The start time of this CME may be off (earlier) due to a data gap in STEREO-A data. The source of this CME is a B4.9 class flare from Active Region 12823 starting at 2021-05-14T00:37Z, peaking at 2021-05-14T01:04Z, ending at 2021-05-14T01:31Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA wavelengths 193, 171, and 94. The eruption appears as a brightening from the flare in the center of the active region with dimming occurring to the south of the active region. There is a coronal hole just south of this active region that could have deflected the CME more equatorward. The CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. There are no visible CME features in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 imagery. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is associated with a shock observed at L1 at 2021-05-19T01:16Z. From Lan Jian, "There seems to be a shock in early 2021-05-19, which could be related to a glimpse of the simulated CME."
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-18T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.27 ---- 2021-05-14T21:45Z 99.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-18T13:00Z -12.27 80.0 2021-05-14T23:54Z 97.37 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-05-17T12:00Z -37.27 ---- 2021-05-15T03:35Z 93.68 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-05-18T07:07Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -18.15 ---- 2021-05-15T23:30Z 73.77 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-17T16:01Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -33.25 ---- 2021-05-15T23:45Z 73.52 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-18T02:25Z -22.85 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.33333
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-16T18:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source of this CME is an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting at 2021-05-13T15:42Z north from Active Region 12822. The eruption features a broad dimming region north of the active region. A post-eruption arcades are visible in SDO/AIA 193/171; opening field lines are seen in STA EUVI 195 as well. This eruption possibly has two B-class flares associated with it (B1.1 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T16:21Z and B1.2 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T18:15Z). The resulting CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. It appears as a faint partial-halo to the North of SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A flux rope is visible around 2021-05-16T18:36Z and may correspond to the flank of the CME. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, "This is a kind of Flux rope. The ICME signatures are not so clear, there is no shock and sheath...ICME identification is based on remote sensing expectations. It may be the flank of a streamer blow out or blob."
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-18T02:15Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 31.65 80.0 0021-05-15T12:47Z -363979.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-18T05:00Z 34.40 ---- 2021-05-14T03:34Z 63.03 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-16T21:49Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 3.22 ---- 2021-05-14T21:18Z 45.30 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-16T19:25Z 0.82 ---- 2021-05-14T23:00Z 43.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-05-17T12:00Z 17.40 ---- 2021-05-15T03:30Z 39.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-05-16T18:47Z (-1.83h, +2.4h) 0.18 16.0 2021-05-15T14:20Z 28.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-17T08:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 13.63 ---- 2021-05-15T23:00Z 19.60 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-17T00:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 6.02 ---- 2021-05-15T23:15Z 19.35 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-17T08:00Z 13.40 48.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-05-09T11:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: CME associated with a filament eruption starting 2021-05-09T10:06Z visible in the disk center in SDO AIA 193/304 (and in the W STA EUVI 195). Clear arrival signature at L1 with IPS at 2021-05-12T05:48Z marked by sudden increase in B total to above 23 nT, a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 450-490 km/s and increases in solar wind density and temperature; Bz reached negative values of around -19 nT for a brief time.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-05-12T03:34Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.23 ---- 2021-05-09T18:58Z 58.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC) Detail
2021-05-12T17:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) 11.20 ---- 2021-05-10T01:15Z 52.55 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-05-12T19:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 13.95 70.0 2021-05-10T07:06Z 46.70 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-12T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 12.20 ---- 2021-05-10T13:37Z 40.18 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - --
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-05-13T06:00Z 24.20 ---- 2021-05-10T14:00Z 39.80 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-12T20:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 14.63 ---- 2021-05-10T23:00Z 30.80 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-12T14:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.52 ---- 2021-05-10T23:15Z 30.55 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-05-12T04:44Z (-5.28h, +6.3h) -1.07 100.0 2021-05-11T13:16Z 16.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-12T15:58Z 10.17 85.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.2
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-04-26T19:39:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-01T12:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME observed in W of STEREO A COR2 beginning 2021-04-26T19:39Z, faintly visible as a partial halo in the south of SOHO LASCO/C3 by 2021-04-2706:18Z. Associated with a large filament eruption from south Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 304 between 2021-04-26T15:00-20:00Z (with biggest lift around 2021-04-26T18:00Z).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-04-30T23:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h) -13.83 10.0 2021-04-26T12:49Z 120.02 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-04-30T20:40Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -16.17 ---- 2021-04-27T20:02Z 88.80 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-05-01T02:00Z -10.83 50.0 2021-04-28T05:20Z 79.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-04-30T23:13Z -13.62 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-04-25T00:00Z 1.60 ---- 2021-04-22T16:00Z 54.40 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-04-24T17:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.00 ---- 2021-04-22T16:16Z 54.13 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-04-24T20:16Z -2.13 ---- 2021-04-22T19:00Z 51.40 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-04-25T00:30Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 2.10 80.0 2021-04-22T23:15Z 47.15 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-04-24T19:25Z (-11.1h, +14.9h) -2.98 ---- 2021-04-23T02:14Z 44.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chigomezyo Ngwira (M2M Office) Detail
2021-04-25T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 25.10 80.0 2021-04-23T06:59Z 39.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-04-24T18:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.90 ---- 2021-04-23T07:00Z 39.40 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-04-25T00:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.32 ---- 2021-04-23T07:15Z 39.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-04-25T01:59Z 3.58 ---- 2021-04-23T08:26Z 37.97 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-04-24T18:46Z -3.63 ---- 2021-04-23T08:26Z 37.97 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-04-25T00:06Z 1.70 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.4
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-04-20T00:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-22T08:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: A CME was detected in the east of SOHO C2 coronagraph starting at 2021-04-20T00:12Z. The CME is also visible in SOHO C3 and STEREO A COR2A. The source of the CME was an eruption from AR2816 (S24E23) around 2021-04-19T23:20Z. The eruption was associated with an M1.1 flare starting at 2021-04-19T23:19Z and peaked at 2021-04-19T23:42Z. The CME arrival was predicted to be a glancing blow and a weak signature at L1 by DSCOVR is seen around 04-22T08:50Z. At this time, a magnetic field rotation is visible while the temperature remains low.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-04-22T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 13.17 ---- 2021-04-20T15:44Z 41.10 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-04-22T20:03Z 11.22 ---- 2021-04-20T22:00Z 34.83 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-04-23T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 27.17 5.0 2021-04-21T06:38Z 26.20 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-04-23T02:01Z 17.18 5.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 4.33333
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-04-10T06:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-15T03:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: The source for this CME was unclear. The latitude and longitude were adjusted for this CME based on SWPC_CAT analysis with 2 coronagraphs (SOHO/STA). A flux rope type signature was visible around 04-15T03:28 by DSCOVR at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-04-15T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 14.53 ---- 2021-04-12T21:17Z 54.18 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-04-15T09:00Z 5.53 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2021-04-15T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -3.47 ---- 2021-04-15T11:00Z -7.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail

CME: 2021-03-21T23:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-26T21:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME signature is not clear and it may be combined with a stream interaction region. Arrival time was difficult to select. We discussed it with GSFC ICME experts for clarification. From Dr. Lan Jian: There is a magnetic obstacle from Mar 26 21:35 to Mar 27 14:40, characterized by some non-smooth field rotations, increased B, declining speed, and low Tp. I selected the boundaries based on the sharp changes of total B, but there are boundary layers at its two sides. After it, there is a stream interaction region, in which the “fast” wind speed is not that fast (less than 450 km/s), and the stream interface is at 22:48 on Mar 27.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-03-26T20:31Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -1.07 75.0 2021-03-22T12:39Z 104.93 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-03-26T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.58 ---- 2021-03-22T22:21Z 95.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-03-26T14:15Z -7.33 75.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-24T19:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This arrival was attributed earlier to the signature seen at L1 around 2021-03-24T04:57Z. After a discussion with two ICME experts, it was decided that the second and stronger structure detected at L1 around 2021-03-24T19:18Z was the actual CME arrival. The first signature did not decrease in temperature while the second structure display clear signatures of a flux rope in the magnetic field, temperature and velocity.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-03-23T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -31.30 ---- 2021-03-20T13:28Z 101.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC) Detail
2021-03-23T06:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -37.30 40.0 2021-03-20T14:50Z 100.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-03-22T20:00Z -47.30 ---- 2021-03-21T00:33Z 90.75 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2021-03-23T04:00Z -39.30 ---- 2021-03-21T05:05Z 86.22 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-03-23T13:53Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -29.42 ---- 2021-03-21T07:00Z 84.30 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-03-23T02:49Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -40.48 ---- 2021-03-21T07:10Z 84.13 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-03-23T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -20.30 50.0 2021-03-22T12:09Z 55.15 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-03-23T12:00Z -31.30 ---- 2021-03-22T20:00Z 47.30 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2021-03-23T08:42Z -34.60 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-02-26T22:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-02-27T20:00Z ---- ---- 2021-02-26T22:00Z 22.00 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -88
Dst min. time: 2021-02-28T10:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2021-02-27T20:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-02-23T05:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: From Dr. Lan Jian: In the declining part of the fast wind stream, there seem to be two flux ropes: one during Feb 23 05UT – Feb 24 03UT, and the other one from Feb 24 04UT to present.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-02-23T14:00Z 9.00 ---- 2021-02-21T01:33Z 51.45 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-02-22T16:00Z -13.00 40.0 2021-02-21T02:53Z 50.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-02-23T12:28Z (-18.0h, +18.0h) 7.47 75.0 2021-02-21T11:14Z 41.77 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-02-23T00:07Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.88 ---- 2021-02-21T14:47Z 38.22 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michael GreklekMcKeon (GSFC) Detail
2021-02-22T12:42Z -16.30 ---- 2021-02-22T11:57Z 17.05 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-02-22T15:29Z -13.52 ---- 2021-02-22T12:02Z 16.97 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-02-23T06:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 1.00 50.0 2021-02-22T23:10Z 5.83 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-02-22T14:12Z (-6.28h, +8.73h) -14.80 100.0 2021-02-24T14:10Z -33.17 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2021-02-22T23:22Z -5.63 66.25 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is preceded by the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. An eruption signature is visible in SDO AIA 193/304/171, showing some dark filament material rising from approximately S40W15 beginning around 2021-01-02T09:00Z with rising material/opening field lines also visible beyond the western limb in the view of STA EUVI 195. This is followed by a clear liftoff of filamentary material in SDO AIA 304 at 10:45Z, and then significant darkening seen along the entire filament from ~S10 to S40 and W00 to W30 beginning around 11:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I don’t see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-01-06T06:00Z 6.00 ---- 2021-01-02T20:00Z 76.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -10.00 ---- 2021-01-02T21:00Z 75.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T05:59Z -18.02 ---- 2021-01-02T21:24Z 74.60 ---- SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-01-05T20:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) -4.00 80.0 2021-01-03T01:00Z 71.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-01-05T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -8.00 65.0 2021-01-03T12:39Z 59.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T18:22Z -5.63 ---- 2021-01-03T13:15Z 58.75 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-01-05T04:32Z -19.47 ---- 2021-01-03T13:19Z 58.68 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-01-05T21:00Z -3.00 ---- 2021-01-04T05:49Z 42.18 Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-01-05T11:36Z -12.40 ---- 2021-01-04T07:00Z 41.00 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-01-05T09:26Z -14.57 ---- 2021-01-04T07:00Z 41.00 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-01-06T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 12.00 70.0 2021-01-04T08:29Z 39.52 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2021-01-05T20:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.50 ---- 2021-01-04T20:45Z 27.25 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T17:17Z -6.72 71.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.42857
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME precedes the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. This CME is associated with a filament eruption observed south of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 (centered near S30W05 just below a small coronal hole structure) starting as early as 2021-01-01T19:00Z. The start time of this CME is chosen based on the visibility of a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2 seen to emerge starting at 2021-01-01T22:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I don’t see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-01-06T06:00Z 6.00 ---- 2021-01-02T20:00Z 76.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -10.00 ---- 2021-01-02T21:00Z 75.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -8.00 65.0 2021-01-03T12:39Z 59.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T20:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.50 ---- 2021-01-04T20:45Z 27.25 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2021-01-05T20:07Z -3.88 65.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.25
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

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