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CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

No Active CME

Past CMEs:

CME: 2021-01-02T11:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is preceded by the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. An eruption signature is visible in SDO AIA 193/304/171, showing some dark filament material rising from approximately S40W15 beginning around 2021-01-02T09:00Z with rising material/opening field lines also visible beyond the western limb in the view of STA EUVI 195. This is followed by a clear liftoff of filamentary material in SDO AIA 304 at 10:45Z, and then significant darkening seen along the entire filament from ~S10 to S40 and W00 to W30 beginning around 11:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-01T22:00Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I donít see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-01-06T06:00Z 6.00 ---- 2021-01-02T20:00Z 76.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -10.00 ---- 2021-01-02T21:00Z 75.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T05:59Z -18.02 ---- 2021-01-02T21:24Z 74.60 ---- SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2021-01-05T20:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) -4.00 80.0 2021-01-03T01:00Z 71.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2021-01-05T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -8.00 65.0 2021-01-03T12:39Z 59.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T18:22Z -5.63 ---- 2021-01-03T13:15Z 58.75 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-01-05T04:32Z -19.47 ---- 2021-01-03T13:19Z 58.68 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2021-01-05T21:00Z -3.00 ---- 2021-01-04T05:49Z 42.18 Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2021-01-05T11:36Z -12.40 ---- 2021-01-04T07:00Z 41.00 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-01-05T09:26Z -14.57 ---- 2021-01-04T07:00Z 41.00 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2021-01-06T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 12.00 70.0 2021-01-04T08:29Z 39.52 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2021-01-05T20:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.50 ---- 2021-01-04T20:45Z 27.25 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T17:17Z -6.72 71.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.42857
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2021-01-01T22:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2021-01-06T00:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME precedes the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. This CME is associated with a filament eruption observed south of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 (centered near S30W05 just below a small coronal hole structure) starting as early as 2021-01-01T19:00Z. The start time of this CME is chosen based on the visibility of a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2 seen to emerge starting at 2021-01-01T22:00Z. The effects of this CME are likely combined with the 2021-01-02T11:24Z CME. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: From Lan Jian: This event should be a HSS with CME embedded. There seems to be a sector boundary at about Jan. 5 12UT. The smooth magnetic field rotations concur with the second B pile-up and second Vp increase. I donít see a shock associated with the event. The flux rope part is from about 0 to 6 UT on Jan. 6. It is possible Earth only encountered the CME at the flank.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2021-01-06T06:00Z 6.00 ---- 2021-01-02T20:00Z 76.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -10.00 ---- 2021-01-02T21:00Z 75.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -8.00 65.0 2021-01-03T12:39Z 59.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T20:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.50 ---- 2021-01-04T20:45Z 27.25 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2021-01-05T20:07Z -3.88 65.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Previous Predictions in 2020

Previous Predictions in 2019

Previous Predictions in 2018

Previous Predictions in 2017

Previous Predictions in 2016

Previous Predictions in 2015

Previous Predictions in 2014

Previous Predictions in 2013

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