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CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time & Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Click here to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

CME: 2019-03-20T08:24:00-CME-001
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-03-23T11:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2019-03-20T17:23Z 65.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Beryl HovisAfflerbach (CCMC) Detail
2019-03-24T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2019-03-20T17:35Z 78.42 ---- DBM (SIDC) Yihua Zheng (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-23T05:54Z ---- ---- 2019-03-20T19:10Z 58.73 Max Kp Range: 3.7 - 4.6
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2019-03-23T12:00Z ---- ---- 2019-03-20T21:51Z 62.15 Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yihua Zheng (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-23T07:00Z ---- ---- 2019-03-20T23:45Z 55.25 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-03-23T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- 60.0 2019-03-21T01:05Z 64.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2019-03-23T15:00Z ---- ---- 2019-03-21T06:20Z 56.67 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-03-23T02:16Z ---- ---- 2019-03-21T06:40Z 43.60 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2019-03-23T20:38Z ---- ---- 2019-03-21T06:44Z 61.90 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2019-03-25T12:50Z (-24.0h, +12.0h) ---- 80.0 2019-03-21T08:05Z 100.75 ---- DBM + ESWF Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2019-03-23T15:47Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2019-03-21T08:30Z 55.28 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2019-03-24T03:50Z ---- ---- 2019-03-21T11:29Z 64.35 ---- CAT-PUMA Jiajia Liu (UoS) Detail
2019-03-23T18:22Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.425 - 5.52
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Past CMEs:

CME: 2019-03-08T04:17:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2019-03-12T02:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large eruption from AR 2734 at 03:11Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2019-03-12T12:00Z 10.00 ---- 2019-03-08T13:47Z 84.22 ---- Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-11T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -8.00 ---- 2019-03-08T15:47Z 82.22 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) M Crawford (CCMC) Detail
2019-03-11T13:00Z -13.00 ---- 2019-03-08T18:45Z 79.25 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-10T17:00Z -33.00 ---- 2019-03-09T00:30Z 73.50 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2019-03-12T03:52Z (-4.0h, +4.0h) 1.87 ---- 2019-03-09T08:30Z 65.50 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2019-03-13T04:00Z (-15.0h, +12.0h) 26.00 100.0 2019-03-09T10:10Z 63.83 ---- DBM Mateja Dumbovic (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2019-03-11T11:00Z -15.00 ---- 2019-03-10T10:40Z 39.33 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2019-03-11T07:00Z -19.00 ---- 2019-03-11T01:51Z 24.15 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2019-03-11T19:44Z -6.27 100.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Previous Predictions in 2018

Previous Predictions in 2017

Previous Predictions in 2016

Previous Predictions in 2015

Previous Predictions in 2014

Previous Predictions in 2013
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CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand