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CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time & Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

No Active CME

Past CMEs:

CME: 2020-01-25T18:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-01-29T04:00Z ---- 30.0 2020-01-25T18:00Z 82.00 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -55
Dst min. time: 2020-01-29T17:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2020-01-29T16:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 10.0 2020-01-26T20:42Z 68.17 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-01-30T06:00Z ---- 50.0 2020-01-27T00:53Z 77.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-01-29T13:43Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2020-01-29T04:00Z ---- ---- 2020-01-31T17:08Z -61.13 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Kelly French (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-01-14T10:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-01-18T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2020-01-15T17:09Z 60.85 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Anna Chulaki (CCMC) Detail
2020-01-19T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2020-01-16T08:50Z 69.17 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-01-18T15:29Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 20.0 2020-01-17T00:25Z 39.07 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-01-18T17:09Z ---- 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-01-06T00:01:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-01-09T21:00Z (-9.0h, +6.0h) ---- 40.0 2020-01-07T04:30Z 64.50 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-01-09T21:58Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 20.0 2020-01-07T08:30Z 61.47 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-01-13T16:22Z (-32.0h, +32.0h) ---- 30.0 2020-01-08T16:56Z 119.43 ---- ELEvoHI Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) Detail
2020-01-10T05:24Z ---- ---- 2020-01-09T05:42Z 23.70 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2020-01-10T22:11Z ---- 30.0 --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Previous Predictions in 2019

Previous Predictions in 2018

Previous Predictions in 2017

Previous Predictions in 2016

Previous Predictions in 2015

Previous Predictions in 2014

Previous Predictions in 2013
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CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand