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CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

CME: 2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is an M1.0 class flare from AR 13152 (N27W35) which is located just north of a large coronal hole which may have caused deflection of the CME. The eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 193, and 171 with brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. It is visible across multiple SDO/AIA wavelengths and also in STEREO A EUVI 195.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-12-03T09:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-12-01T11:21Z 46.27 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-12-04T00:50Z ---- ---- 2022-12-01T13:40Z 59.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-12-03T17:13Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-11-30T08:24:00-CME-001
CME Note: This CME is faint but visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption which begins to lift-off around 2022-11-30T07:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Post eruptive loops begin to form around 08:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 193. This CME may deflect from the source within the field of view.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-12-04T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-11-30T13:04Z 88.93 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-12-04T06:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-11-29T20:24:00-CME-001
CME Note: A partial halo CME seen to the SE in C2 and possibly starting to be seen very faintly in SSE in COR2A difference imagery starting after ~2022-11-29T20:38Z (it could be obscured in white light imagery by the SE streamer). The source appears to be a large, slowly developing S-shaped complex filament eruption centered around S20E25 seen in SDO 304 starting ~2022-11-29T14:00Z. The filament stretches from about N20E30 to S30E10 in GOES SUVI/SDO AIA 304 and around -30 to 2 degrees longitude in EUVI A 195.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-12-03T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-11-30T00:06Z 93.90 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-12-04T06:00Z (-10.0h, +8.0h) ---- 40.0 2022-11-30T14:54Z 87.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-12-04T02:00Z ---- 40.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-11-22T08:00:00-CME-001
CME Note: Halo CME seen first in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2 and then in the SSW in STEREO A COR2 and is likely associated with the C7.0-class flare from AR3151 peaking around 2022-11-22T07:27Z. The flare and subsequent eruption was accompanied by an EUV wave which was mostly directed toward the south and east as seen in SDO AIA 193 and 171 imagery starting around 2022-11-22T07:09Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-11-25T11:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-11-22T17:24Z 66.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-25T09:54Z ---- ---- 2022-11-22T17:50Z 64.07 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-11-25T11:40Z (-8.7h, +7.9h) ---- 97.0 2022-11-22T22:12Z 61.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-27T18:00Z (-18.0h, +6.0h) ---- ---- 2022-11-23T00:30Z 113.50 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-25T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2022-11-24T00:46Z 35.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-11-25T22:18Z ---- 68.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Past CMEs:

CME: 2022-11-19T09:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-11-22T06:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME appears far out of the field of view after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 and is first visible at 2022-11-19T12:23Z. Filament was centered around N40E30 on the Earth-facing disk but the liftoff in SDO AIA 304 appeared to deflect towards the west. Post-liftoff dimming is also seen in the NE of STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery at 2022-11-19T12:25Z. Eruption starts off slow around 06:30Z and is nearly fully lifted off by 10:00Z. LASSOS team (Tarik Mohammad): A possible minor CME arrival (possibly w/o a flux rope). Total magnetic field remains very low (6 nT). The possible end of this CME can be 2022-11-23T04:38Z. Around this time, proton density seems to start increasing and expansion seems to cease. The field components also start to fluctuate.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-11-22T04:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -1.52 ---- 2022-11-19T20:30Z 57.87 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-11-22T01:20Z (-6.833h, +4.367h) -5.03 58.0 2022-11-20T01:49Z 52.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-22T03:05Z -3.28 58.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-11-19T07:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3; no STEREO A COR2 imagery available yet due to beacon data gap. May be associated with flare and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-11-19T06:12Z and in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-11-19T06:15Z. UPDATE (2022-11-28T16:30Z): This CME may possibly have been part of a combined arrival with the 2022-11-19T09:48Z CME at around 2022-11-22T06:22Z, but the L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the latter CME and there is no sign of this CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-11-22T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-11-19T12:26Z 81.57 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-22T22:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-11-18T15:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: Visible in the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption from AR 13145 (N25W35), visible as a filament eruption directed southward from the AR in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-11-14T02:59Z, triggered by a C3.3 flare peaking 2022-11-14T02:49Z. No STEREO A EUVI imagery available during real-time analysis due to beacon data gap. Arrival signature (courtesy of Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team): ICME signature around 2022-11-18T15:00Z where both By and Bz change signs. This CMEs might have interacted with the CME arriving on 2022-11-17. The CME exhibits compression (negative expansion), see the increasing speed. This might explain the peaks and compression observed in proton density. A possible end of this ICME can be around 2022-11-19T12:24Z, after that the field becomes turbulent.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-11-17T12:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -27.63 ---- 2022-11-14T13:13Z 98.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-17T10:10Z (-6.7h, +4.9h) -29.65 25.0 2022-11-14T18:33Z 93.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-17T11:10Z -28.65 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-11-13T11:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-11-17T02:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME faintly visible in the S in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption near S40W05, dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2022-11-13T08:59Z. May possibly be associated with a filament liftoff, but SDO AIA data gaps make that hard to ascertain. Arrival signature (by Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team):There can be two possible ICME start times: the first one is around 2022-11-17T02:58Z. The choice of this start time is based on Bz becoming positive from negative and the start of rotations (not exactly smooth) in the field components. This start time also coincides with a drop in proton density. Alternative choice of start time can be 2022-11-17T11:36Z when both Bx and By change signs. This also corresponds to another drop in proton density and the speed profile exhibiting expansion (see the decreasing speed).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-11-17T07:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.03 ---- 2022-11-13T15:02Z 83.93 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-17T07:00Z 4.03 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-11-11T17:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The eruption is characterized by two extremely faint, almost distinguishable fronts: one due south and one directed to the southeast as seen in the SOHO C2 coronagraph starting around 2022-11-11T17:24Z. It is unclear if the eruptions are separate events due to their faintness. They appear to be associated with eruptive activity from Active Region 3141 near the disk center (N12W08), and there is evidence in the SDO AIA and GOES SUVI coronal imagery of southward deflection of ejecta.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-11-14T21:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-11-11T21:25Z 71.58 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-11-14T21:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-27T04:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: SW partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and faintly visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2. Early development not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to beacon data gap. Source is unclear but may possibly be associated with faint dimming and field line movement in vicinity of AR 13132 (S10W32), visible in SDO AIA 095/171/193 starting around 2022-10-27T02:30Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-31T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-28T12:04Z 81.93 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-31T22:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-21T04:49:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: From SIDC Ursigram (2022-10-21T20:49Z): A possibly Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection was observed in LASCO/C2 data on 21 October 04:49 UTC. This is believed to be associated with a radio pulse on 21 October 04:08 UTC and a C1.6-class flare, peak time 21 October 04:32 UTC from NOAA active region 3126 as well as an EUV wave. A possible impact on Earth may be expected 27 October 04:59 UTC, with the caveat that the CME speed is rather low and said impact may not be too profound. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team): I do not see any CME signatures on 10-27 0r 10-28 (confirming that there is a start of HSS on 10-28).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-27T04:59Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 70.0 2022-10-21T12:06Z 136.88 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-27T04:59Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-14T23:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the filament eruption extending diagonally from around S30W30 to S12W50 starting at 2022-10-14T22:00Z. Post eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193 around 2022-10-15T00:30Z, as well as an opening of field lines seen in SDO AIA 171 the SW region around the same time. This CME partially overlaps CME: 2022-10-15T00:00Z, which may possibly originate from the same source. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team), a definite CME arrival signature was not observed during the expected arrival timeframe. There appeared to be an SIR/HSS arrival at L1 on 2022-10-16 and 2022-10-18 which makes it very difficult to identify CMEs with only real-time data. In such cases, pitch angle distribution (PAD), charge state, and particle abundance are helpful in identifying a CME in mixed CME+HSS signatures.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-18T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2022-10-15T08:00Z 87.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-18T23:00Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-13T07:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and to the South in STEREO A COR2. It has a separate faint shock that is only visible in SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery with a more defined bulk portion seen in both SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S28E08 starting around 2022-10-13T07:00Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 304, 193 (dimming/brightening), and STEREO A EUVI 195. From Tarik Salman (LASSOS team), a definite CME arrival signature was not observed during the expected arrival timeframe. There appeared to be an SIR/HSS arrival at L1 on 2022-10-16 and 2022-10-18 which makes it difficult to identify CMEs with real-time data only. In such cases, pitch angle distribution (PAD), charge state, and particle abundance are helpful in identifying a CME in mixed CME+HSS signatures.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-16T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-13T17:28Z 64.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-17T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2022-10-14T12:02Z 71.97 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-16T23:00Z ---- 20.0 2022-10-15T12:50Z 34.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-10-16T23:00Z ---- 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-11T11:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in the W in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption near N24W36, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-10-11T10:55Z, following M1.5 flare. UPDATE (2022-10-21T15:45Z) from Tarik (LASSOS Team): There is no ICME signature on 2022-10-14, however, a clear Stream Interaction Region (SIR) is evident in the L1 signatures. The SIR start and the HSS start is denoted by gold and blue lines respectively. The SIR start is identified by rotations in the field components (because of compression) and start of a turbulent period of field components. Also, enhancements of the magnetic field and proton density is observed at the interface and you can see the bulk speed to increase till the start of the HSS (after which this should remain constant).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-14T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-11T15:44Z 79.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-14T23:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-11T09:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in W in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2. May be associated with eruption near N24W35, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-10-11T08:56Z, following M3.9 flare. UPDATE (2022-10-21T15:45Z) from Tarik (LASSOS Team): There is no ICME signature on 2022-10-14, however, a clear Stream Interaction Region (SIR) is evident in the L1 signatures. The SIR start and the HSS start is denoted by gold and blue lines respectively. The SIR start is identified by rotations in the field components (because of compression) and start of a turbulent period of field components. Also, enhancements of the magnetic field and proton density is observed at the interface and you can see the bulk speed to increase till the start of the HSS (after which this should remain constant).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-14T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-11T15:44Z 79.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-14T23:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-09T23:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with filament eruption located around S30E40 starting at 2022-10-09T22:30Z. Best seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304. Also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195. UPDATE (2022-10-21T15:45Z) from Tarik (LASSOS Team): There is no ICME signature on 2022-10-14, however, a clear Stream Interaction Region (SIR) is evident in the L1 signatures. The SIR start and the HSS start is denoted by gold and blue lines respectively. The SIR start is identified by rotations in the field components (because of compression) and start of a turbulent period of field components. Also, enhancements of the magnetic field and proton density is observed at the interface and you can see the bulk speed to increase till the start of the HSS (after which this should remain constant).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-14T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-10-11T11:37Z 78.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-14T18:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-07T08:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is faint in white light imagery, but is visible to the N/NW in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. The source is likely a filament eruption starting around 2022-10-07T07:00Z near AR 3111 (N28W51), centered around N30W40. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 195 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery starting around 07:20Z, and post-eruptive arcades can be seen in SDO AIA 195/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 at 08:00Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-11T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-07T16:44Z 87.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-11T08:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-10-04T14:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in the S of SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with filament eruption centered near S30E05, visible in SDO AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-10-04T13:25Z. LASSOS team discussed solar wind signatures on 2022-10-06 and 2022-10-07 and determined that there was no clear CME arrival signature on these dates.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-07T05:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-04T17:32Z 60.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-07T03:00Z ---- ---- 2022-10-04T20:00Z 55.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-10-07T04:52Z (-15.0h, +14.0h) ---- 89.58 2022-10-04T22:56Z 53.93 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-06T21:00Z ---- ---- 2022-10-05T08:12Z 36.80 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-10-07T03:28Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-05T12:00Z 39.47 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-10-07T09:35Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-05T12:24Z 45.18 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-10-07T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 25.0 2022-10-05T15:18Z 42.70 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-06T22:43Z ---- ---- 2022-10-06T03:33Z 19.17 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-10-07T03:25Z ---- 57.29 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 5.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2022-10-06T22:25Z ---- ---- 2022-10-06T03:35Z 18.83 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail

CME: 2022-10-03T00:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Appears to have two separate fronts in C2, which merge within the C3 field of view. No STEREO A COR2 imagery available during real-time analysis due to beacon data gap. Associated with large filament eruption centered near S30E30, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-10-02T22:15Z. UPDATE (2022-10-21T15:47Z) from Tarik (LASSOS Team): Do not see any potential CME signatures on 2022-10-06T03:00Z and around this time. The field components, even though exhibiting rotations are too fluctuating. There is an enhancement in the magnetic field around T16:00Z which also coincides with a decreasing small period of proton density. However, looking at the field components, no definite CME signatures seem to be present.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-06T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-10-03T13:45Z 64.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-05T21:19Z (-5.5h, +6.7h) ---- 12.0 2022-10-03T21:02Z 48.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-06T11:21Z ---- ---- 2022-10-04T16:12Z 43.15 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-10-06T01:26Z ---- 12.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2022-10-05T15:05Z ---- ---- 2022-10-04T16:14Z 22.85 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail

CME: 2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-04T07:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2, partial halo W in SOHO LASCO C3. Overtakes previous narrow CME in coronagraph imagery. May be associated with large eruption from AR 13113 (N16W21), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-10-01T12:04Z. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: We can have a potential CME arrival at 2022-10-04T07:05Z. As you can see, we do have a smooth-like rotation in the Z-component of magnetic field. Also, in the same period, the ion density and temperature seem to decrease from higher levels. A potential end of this CME (flux rope) could be 2022-10-05T02:46Z. After this, you can see the components are too fluctuating (or noisy).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-04T05:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -1.37 ---- 2022-10-01T16:35Z 62.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-04T05:49Z -1.27 ---- 2022-10-01T19:30Z 59.58 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-10-04T07:11Z (-6.7h, +6.5h) 0.10 100.0 2022-10-01T22:31Z 56.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-04T03:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -4.08 40.0 2022-10-02T06:20Z 48.75 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-10-04T10:56Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 3.85 ---- 2022-10-02T12:00Z 43.08 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-10-04T10:57Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 3.87 ---- 2022-10-02T12:10Z 42.92 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-10-04T05:19Z -1.77 ---- 2022-10-02T17:00Z 38.08 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-10-04T00:20Z -6.75 ---- 2022-10-02T17:07Z 37.97 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-10-04T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -4.08 35.0 2022-10-02T18:06Z 36.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-04T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -7.08 ---- 2022-10-03T08:00Z 23.08 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-10-04T05:13Z -1.87 58.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-01T15:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. There is a notable eruption signature from the eastern side of AR 13110 (centered near N15E18) starting around 2022-09-28T03:40Z as seen in all SDO/AIA wavelengths. The filament portion is most clearly seen in SDO/AIA 304.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-01T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.92 ---- 2022-09-28T22:01Z 65.07 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-30T09:48Z -29.28 ---- 2022-09-29T13:48Z 49.28 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-10-01T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.08 ---- 2022-09-29T20:14Z 42.85 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-10-01T02:36Z -12.48 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-28T04:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-01T15:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is seen to the East/Northeast of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and initially not seen in COR2A because of a large data gap. Possibly merged with 2022-09-28T05:24Z CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-10-01T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.08 ---- 2022-09-30T16:19Z 22.77 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-10-01T00:32Z (-3.0h, +4.0h) -14.55 75.0 2022-09-30T20:04Z 19.02 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-10-01T03:16Z -11.82 75.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-23T18:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Eruption from AR 3110 (near N18E80) starting around 2022-09-23T17:30Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304. Opening of field lines occurs around 17:50Z seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193. This CME is also associated with an M1.7 flare peaking at 2022-09-23T18:10Z. Appears to contain a weak faint shock that is much wider. Comment from Tarik Salman from LASSOS team regarding arrival (non-arrival in this case): Looking at the in-situ signatures, I confirm that the L1 signature appears dominated by the HSS arrival. I do not necessarily see any noteworthy features of an ICME. For weak ICMEs or ICMEs with glancing blows, it becomes really tricky to distinguish them, especially when there is another large-scale structure (i.e., HSS) present.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-27T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 15.0 2022-09-25T13:43Z 34.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-27T00:00Z ---- 15.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-23T14:09:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: A coronal mass ejection which is associated with an erupting filament west of Active Region 3102 which starts moving around 2022-09-23T10:40Z. The eruption is seen best in SDO AIA 304 but also in SDO AIA 193 and 171. Comment from Tarik Salman from LASSOS team regarding arrival (non-arrival in this case): Looking at the in-situ signatures, I do not necessarily see any noteworthy features of an ICME. Again, for weak ICMEs or ICMEs with glancing blows, it becomes really tricky to distinguish them, especially when there is another large-scale structure (i.e., HSS) present.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-27T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-09-25T13:31Z 55.48 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-27T21:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Seen in the west of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source location is unclear but may be a faint eruption with dimming seen around N10W05 in the proximity of AR 1309. STEREO A EUVI imagery was unavailable due to a data gap.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-26T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-09-22T16:38Z 87.37 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-09-27T06:00Z ---- 40.0 2022-09-22T17:40Z 108.33 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-09-26T01:00Z ---- 50.0 2022-09-23T08:50Z 64.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-09-26T13:00Z ---- 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 4.66667
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-16T02:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to beacon data gap. May be associated with second filament eruption near S35W55, visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2022-09-16T01:09Z. Overtakes/merges with earlier CME from same location by 2022-09-16T07:30Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-19T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-09-16T12:29Z 61.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-18T20:03Z (-0.7h, +1.5h) ---- 8.0 2022-09-16T16:48Z 51.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-18T14:00Z ---- 30.0 2022-09-16T22:00Z 40.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-09-18T21:00Z ---- 30.0 2022-09-16T22:53Z 46.12 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-09-19T14:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-09-18T11:28Z 26.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-18T23:48Z ---- 22.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.6 - 4.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-09T07:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-09-14T06:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: A faint CME in SOHO white light and running difference imagery which is seen as even fainter in STEREO A imagery with no true leading edge to analyze. It is directed mostly to the north in SOHO imagery and to the north and east in STEREO A. While the coronagraph imagery seems to suggest that the CME source is located on the Earth-facing disk, a preliminary triangulation using SWPC_Cat results in a broad area on the Earth-facing disk where no source seems to actually erupt. The analysis is therefore pretty speculative. The CME overlaps a few other faint CMEs which increases the difficulty of the analysis. The interplanetary shock is characterized by a jump in solar wind speed, density, temperature and B_total. There is another subsequent increase at 2022-09-14T08:44Z, leading to an increase in B_total above 10 nT. Some magnetic field rotation is present.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-13T21:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.38 ---- 2022-09-10T15:43Z 86.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-15T00:01Z 17.63 20.0 2022-09-11T05:58Z 72.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-09-14T03:35Z -2.80 ---- 2022-09-12T09:37Z 44.77 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-09-11T22:51Z -55.53 0.0 2022-09-12T09:41Z 44.70 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-09-13T17:51Z -12.53 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-07T22:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the far south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 white light imagery due to data gap. Source is filament eruption seen around S30W00 with a slow liftoff starting around 20:00Z. Characterized by dimming in SDO AIA 193 and filament in SDO AIA 304. Smooth magnetic field component rotations were observed after 2022-09-11T20:00Z which may indicate the arrival of this CME, but if so, the CME was shockless with no rapid increases in magnetic field intensity, temperature, etc, and thus the arrival time is unclear.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-11T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-09-08T17:07Z 70.88 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-09-11T16:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-04T08:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the ESE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, not clearly seen in STEREO A COR2. May possibly be associated with eruption and C3.9 flare just east of AR 13093 (near S27E25), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-09-04T07:18Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-06T20:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-09-04T13:08Z 55.82 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-06T14:58Z (-7.4h, +5.8h) ---- 70.0 2022-09-04T17:50Z 45.13 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-07T02:39Z ---- ---- 2022-09-05T20:00Z 30.65 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-09-06T20:51Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.66667
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-09-02T19:32:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the S/SE in STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption stretching across the SE quadrant visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 and 304 around 2022-09-02T18:30Z. An opening of field lines is visible off the SE limb in SDO AIA 171 around this time, and post-eruptive loops begin to form shortly after the filament lift-off as seen in SDO AIA 193.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-09-05T07:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-09-03T04:48Z 50.70 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-09-05T18:01Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 25.0 2022-09-03T08:03Z 57.97 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-09-05T05:56Z (-4.0h, +4.0h) ---- 30.0 2022-09-03T11:05Z 42.85 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-09-05T10:29Z ---- 27.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-27T02:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-29T02:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Clearly visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3; moves quickly through FOV. Associated with eruption and flare from AR 13088, clearly visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-08-27T01:55Z and in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-08-27T01. Arrival signature identified by LASSOS team/Tarik Salman: the shock is seen around 2022-08-29T02:57Z with a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The sheath following this IP shock ends on 2022-08-30T10:46Z, followed by the flux rope. The sheath exhibits enhanced magnetic field and plasma signatures. According to the CME Scoreboard, the arrival would likely be synonymous with CME: 2022-08-27T02:23Z which was expected to arrive on average (8 entries) around 2022-08-29T02:11Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-28T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -10.95 ---- 2022-08-27T04:00Z 46.95 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-28T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -6.95 30.0 2022-08-27T12:57Z 38.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-29T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.05 ---- 2022-08-27T13:55Z 37.03 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-29T01:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -1.95 60.0 2022-08-27T16:50Z 34.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-08-28T21:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.35 2.0 2022-08-27T20:37Z 30.33 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-29T11:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 8.05 ---- 2022-08-28T00:39Z 26.30 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-08-28T18:49Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -8.13 ---- 2022-08-28T12:00Z 14.95 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-29T14:03Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 11.10 ---- 2022-08-28T12:10Z 14.78 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-29T02:11Z -0.77 30.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-19T04:44:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-22T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-19T20:28Z 73.53 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-22T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 60.0 2022-08-20T04:20Z 46.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-08-22T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-08-20T11:25Z 54.58 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-08-22T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 55.0 2022-08-20T12:41Z 45.32 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-22T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-20T17:43Z 30.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-22T01:26Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-21T12:00Z 13.43 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-22T02:32Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-21T12:05Z 14.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-22T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-21T15:18Z 23.70 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-22T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-21T16:30Z 21.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-22T09:33Z ---- 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.14286 - 4.57143
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-18T11:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-20T17:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: The CME has a separate shock that is wider than the bulk of the CME. The bulk is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. The shock is wider and more faint. There is a visible EUV wave along the SE of the source location as seen in SDO/AIA 193, moving/opening field lines are visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. Filament material is seen ejecting from the source location in SDO/AIA 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 10:10Z with a flare as the potential trigger. The arrival is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind density, magnetic field intensity, temperature, and speed with some component rotations present in the magnetic field after a period of very little to no rotation present in the magnetic field starting around 2022-08-20T17:24Z. These arrival signatures may be that of an ICME sheath that is followed by a flux rope beginning 2022-08-21T03:55Z but may also include more than one ICME arrival given the complexity of the solar wind signature.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-21T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 10.60 ---- 2022-08-18T16:44Z 48.67 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-21T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 9.60 ---- 2022-08-18T16:48Z 48.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-20T16:13Z -1.18 ---- 2022-08-18T21:11Z 44.22 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-08-21T02:19Z (-7.783h, +5.583h) 8.92 34.0 2022-08-18T21:54Z 43.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-21T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 14.60 ---- 2022-08-19T00:25Z 40.98 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-08-21T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 9.60 55.0 2022-08-19T12:20Z 29.07 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-20T10:11Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -7.22 ---- 2022-08-20T00:00Z 17.40 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-21T01:42Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 8.30 ---- 2022-08-20T00:10Z 17.23 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-20T21:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h) 3.60 30.0 2022-08-20T18:00Z -0.60 Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-08-20T23:42Z 6.30 39.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.16667 - 5.14286
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-17T14:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: An eruption likely associated with an M2.0-class flare from AR3078. The eruption is seen in SDO 171/193/304 as a brightening with associated opening field lines and ejecta that diverge and deflect partially to the south and partially to the west, likely due to the presence of a coronal hole. The CME was observed to be bright and fairly wide in running difference imagery. Slowly-varying magnetic component rotations were observed to start around 2022-08-20T09:16Z with a potential arrival around 2022-08-20T04:53Z due to the presence of a sharp but weak increase in solar wind density and temperature, but the solar wind data is rather inconclusive of showing a clear interplanetary shock. With an IPS (beginning of an ICME sheath signature) occurring around 2022-08-20T16:00Z, it is possible that there is a complex signature with more than one ICME arrival occurring between 2022-08-20 and 2022-08-21.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-20T06:58Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:16Z 71.70 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-20T11:20Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:19Z 76.02 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-20T06:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T18:00Z 60.58 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-20T04:23Z ---- ---- 2022-08-17T18:20Z 58.05 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-08-20T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-18T03:49Z 46.18 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-08-19T21:00Z ---- ---- 2022-08-18T06:00Z 39.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-08-20T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 35.0 2022-08-18T12:30Z 44.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-20T05:41Z (-8.733h, +8.267h) ---- 95.0 2022-08-18T15:19Z 38.37 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-20T05:22Z ---- 65.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.83333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-16T15:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-19T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: The source is likely an eruption associated with AR3078 (S24W12). The SDO 193/304/171 A imagery shows a brightening across all wavelengths and some ejecta leaving the active region. There appears to be a divergence in the ejecta noted in the 193 A imagery which a portion of the ejecta deflected to the west and a portion deflected to the south. A definite shock is observed at 2022-08-19T17:02Z with simultaneous, rapid increases in magnetic field intensity, particle speed, and particle density. There appears to be a sheath region followed by smooth rotations in the magnetic field components thereafter, especially for much of 2022-08-20.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-19T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 5.97 ---- 2022-08-17T15:03Z 49.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-19T01:00Z -16.03 ---- 2022-08-17T19:22Z 45.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-08-20T05:41Z (-8.733h, +8.267h) 12.65 95.0 2022-08-18T15:19Z 25.72 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-19T17:53Z 0.85 95.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-16T02:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. It appears to the southwest in STEREO A COR2 imagery with a very bright front. The source of this CME is an eruption from AR 13078 associated with filament material (SDO/AIA 304), brightening (SDO/AIA 304, 193), post-eruptive arcade (SDO/AIA 193), and possibly two flares (SDO/AIA 131).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-18T22:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-16T19:09Z 51.32 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-19T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2022-08-16T21:22Z 54.63 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-19T00:01Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2022-08-17T03:47Z 44.23 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-08-18T17:00Z ---- 70.0 2022-08-17T06:34Z 34.43 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-08-19T07:54Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:10Z 48.73 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-19T02:42Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:14Z 43.47 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-18T22:13Z ---- ---- 2022-08-17T15:13Z 31.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-08-18T21:33Z (-6.0h, +6.5h) ---- 70.0 2022-08-18T12:13Z 9.33 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-08-19T00:13Z ---- 55.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.2
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-15T17:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 13078 (near S25W02). The source signature of this CME is visible in SDO AIA 193/304 starting around 2022-08-15T14:33Z. It is visible towards the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 but not in STEREO A COR2 due to an ongoing outage.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-18T06:20Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-16T13:57Z 40.38 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-18T07:18Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-16T21:21Z 33.95 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-18T05:19Z (-9.5h, +5.7h) ---- 87.0 2022-08-16T23:45Z 29.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-18T19:32Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:05Z 36.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-18T16:37Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:10Z 33.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-18T12:22Z ---- ---- 2022-08-17T15:14Z 21.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-08-18T11:14Z ---- 87.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 6.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-15T11:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Brightly visible in the far S of SOHO LASCO C3/C3. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to data gap. Source signature includes opening field lines and a slow dimming starting around 11:00Z in SDO AIA 193.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-18T06:20Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-16T13:57Z 40.38 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-18T07:18Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-16T21:21Z 33.95 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-18T11:27Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:00Z 28.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-18T10:19Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-17T07:03Z 27.27 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-18T04:44Z ---- ---- 2022-08-17T15:13Z 13.52 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-08-18T07:34Z ---- 87.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 6.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2022-08-18T05:19Z (-9.5h, +5.7h) ---- 87.0 2022-08-17T23:45Z 5.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail

CME: 2022-08-15T05:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption to the south of Active Region 13079 near S22W42 as seen in SDO AIA 193/304 imagery starting around 2022-08-15T04:20Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-18T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 50.0 2022-08-16T13:36Z 43.40 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-08-18T09:00Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-14T12:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T02:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo situated to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption from AR 13076 lifting off at approximately 2022-08-14T11:42Z. Best seen in SDO AIA 193 as a EUV wave, brightening, and post eruptive arcades. Best seen in SDO AIA 304 as dark filament material lifting off the disk to the west. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195. Update: There is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-13T18:48Z. Details about arrival in 2022-08-13T18:48Z note.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-17T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 2.73 75.0 2022-08-14T15:53Z 58.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-08-16T22:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.90 ---- 2022-08-14T17:32Z 56.73 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-08-17T06:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 3.73 70.0 2022-08-14T21:45Z 52.52 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-08-17T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -0.27 100.0 2022-08-15T05:39Z 44.62 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-08-17T15:32Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 13.27 ---- 2022-08-15T09:00Z 41.27 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-17T12:20Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 10.07 ---- 2022-08-15T09:05Z 41.18 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-08-17T09:00Z 6.73 70.0 2022-08-16T00:29Z 25.78 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-08-17T06:53Z 4.62 78.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.4
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-13T18:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-08-17T02:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: This CME is visible in the SSE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the SSW of STEREO A COR2. Source eruption is seen as an EUV wave and dimming near AR 13078 starting around 2022-08-13T15:30Z and best seen in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195. There is a definite shock on 2022-08-17T02:16Z which indicates the arrival of a CME, but it is possible the arrival is also associated with a CME first seen on 2022-08-14T12:48Z. Apart from temperature, we observe sudden jumps in the total magnetic field, proton density, and bulk speed. A sheath region appears to follow the shock. The sheath region can be seen as having turbulent field components, elevated total magnetic field, proton density, and temperature compared to the background solar wind. The high-speed stream can be identifiable starting around 2022-08-17T14:34Z by looking at the compression in the total magnetic field and proton density and increasing bulk speed and temperature afterward.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-17T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 1.73 70.0 2022-08-13T23:34Z 74.70 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-08-17T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.73 ---- 2022-08-14T15:18Z 58.97 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-08-16T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -8.27 ---- 2022-08-15T13:13Z 37.05 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-08-17T00:40Z -1.60 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-08-06T01:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 (after a data gap). Its source is a beautiful filament eruption in the SE quadrant (around S45E47), best seen in AIA 171 but also in 193, 304 starting at 2022-08-06T01:07Z, also seen as dimming and post-eruptive arcades in EUVI A 195 after the data gap ending at ~2022-08-06T02:30.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-08-08T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-08-06T18:25Z 42.58 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-08-08T13:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: A faint, full halo CME seen in SOHO running difference imagery that seems to be associated with a C5.6-class flare occurring around the Sun's center disk from AR3060 and possibly combines with CME 2022-07-21T01:36Z, a brighter CME seen to the NE in SOHO coronagraph imagery. A Stereo-Ahead coronagraph data gap at this time increases the uncertainty of the analysis. While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus any Kp predicted by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-23T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.47 ---- 2022-07-21T06:00Z 44.47 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-23T00:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h) -2.47 70.0 2022-07-21T13:48Z 36.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-22T16:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.83 ---- 2022-07-21T16:46Z 33.70 Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-23T01:15Z -1.22 ---- 2022-07-21T18:10Z 32.30 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-07-23T03:00Z 0.53 ---- 2022-07-21T18:51Z 31.62 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-07-22T15:13Z (-3.6h, +4.3h) -11.25 100.0 2022-07-21T22:15Z 28.22 Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-23T06:00Z 3.53 70.0 2022-07-22T01:08Z 25.33 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-07-23T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -0.47 ---- 2022-07-22T03:53Z 22.58 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-07-22T15:17Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -11.18 ---- 2022-07-22T05:00Z 21.47 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-23T12:11Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 9.72 ---- 2022-07-22T05:10Z 21.30 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-22T23:57Z -2.52 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.57143 - 7.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Second of a triplet of CMEs that are difficult to analyze due to ongoing coronagraph data gaps. This CME's source location appears to be associated with dimming seen around the vicinity of N25E10 from 19:30Z to 21:00Z in GOES SUVI 195 imagery due to an ongoing SDO maneuver at the time. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival is also associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-23T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.53 ---- 2022-07-21T06:00Z 44.47 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-22T16:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.83 ---- 2022-07-21T16:46Z 33.70 Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-22T15:13Z (-3.6h, +4.3h) -11.25 100.0 2022-07-21T22:15Z 28.22 Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-22T19:37Z -6.85 100.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 8.0 - 9.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-18T17:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Bright CME SW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2. This CME seems to have accelerated over time. Its source seems to be a slow filament eruption mostly SE from AR 3056 (which was located at W40S17 at the time of eruption), possibly stretching along latitude of ~30 deg, with dimming stretching from W10 to W30 and post-eruptive arcades at W30-W50. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival may instead/also be associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z and the CME first detected at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-23T07:10Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 4.70 20.0 2022-07-19T15:00Z 83.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-23T07:10Z 4.70 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-16T17:09:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in the WNW in STEREO A COR2, no SOHO LASCO direct imagery available during real-time analysis. May possibly be associated with dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning around 2022-07-16T16:00Z and filament eruption faintly visible in SDO AIA 304 at the same time. This appears to have the same trigger as the filament eruption near S30W50, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2022-07-16T16:30Z. Possibly deflected NE due to coronal hole to the SW (centered near S15W35).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-20T06:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-07-17T14:32Z 64.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-19T15:36Z ---- ---- 2022-07-17T18:26Z 45.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-07-20T03:51Z (-3.9h, +4.4h) ---- 60.0 2022-07-17T21:37Z 54.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-20T04:17Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-07-18T07:15Z 45.03 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-19T19:07Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-07-18T07:20Z 35.78 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-20T00:19Z ---- 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-15T15:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-18T20:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo N in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with large north-central filament eruption beginning 2022-07-15T13:02Z, visible in GOES-16 SUVI 171/304. The CME arrival signature is characterized by magnetic amplification accompanied by a jump on solar wind speed and density. Some time later (2022-07-19T04:00Z) there is a drop in temperature and a change of magnetic component pattern to a more smooth one, probably indicating the arrival of magnetic cloud. B_total reached a peak of over 16 nT at 2022-07-19T00:23Z. This looks more like a flank impact of a CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-19T11:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 14.40 ---- 2022-07-15T16:52Z 75.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-20T00:01Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 27.35 70.0 2022-07-16T02:30Z 66.17 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-07-18T12:58Z -7.70 ---- 2022-07-16T13:00Z 55.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-07-19T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 26.83 40.0 2022-07-16T13:09Z 55.52 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-18T23:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.52 ---- 2022-07-16T14:06Z 54.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-19T06:52Z (-9.1h, +8.9h) 10.20 79.0 2022-07-16T18:32Z 50.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-19T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 20.33 80.0 2022-07-16T22:50Z 45.83 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -100
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-07-19T00:50Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 4.17 ---- 2022-07-18T07:00Z 13.67 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-18T16:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -3.78 ---- 2022-07-18T07:10Z 13.50 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-19T07:08Z 10.47 67.25 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-09T23:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: A complicated eruption consisting of a generally unimpressive flare/subsequent eruption in coronal imagery located around center-disk (N15E10) from AR3053. A fast jet of plasma is seen sharply deflecting towards the northwest due to the present of multiple coronal holes surrounding the active region, but SOHO/C2 coronagraph imagery shows what could be a faint, wider bulk associated with this eruption generally toward the northwest and an even fainter partial halo emanating generally to the west. It is uncertain whether the halo or bulk is associated with this center-disk eruption or another simultaneous eruption occurring off the Sun's western limb; moving field lines seen in SDO AIA 171 indicate this possibility. A Stereo-A COR2A outage at the time complicates the analysis of this event. NASA M2M ran simulations of the bulk and faint shock component solutions for this event.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-12T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-07-11T17:44Z 24.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-12T03:10Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-07-11T18:26Z 8.73 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-12T10:35Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 6.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-11T09:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: An eruption associated with the long-duration M2.5-class solar flare which occurred near N20E40. The CME presents itself as a faint halo in SOHO/C3 imagery and possibly a halo in Stereo-A/COR2A imagery with a bulk component mostly to the east in all available coronagraph imagery. The eruption as seen in coronal imagery is relatively unimpressive with mostly bright post-eruptive arcades and an EUV wave that traverses north and west of the source region best seen in SDO AIA 211 imagery.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-11T07:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -1.43 ---- 2022-07-09T15:16Z 42.10 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-11T11:19Z 1.95 ---- 2022-07-09T15:40Z 41.70 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-07-11T05:49Z (-10.1h, +9.4h) -3.55 81.0 2022-07-09T21:32Z 35.83 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-11T15:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 6.10 ---- 2022-07-11T00:00Z 9.37 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-11T18:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.77 ---- 2022-07-11T00:10Z 9.20 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-07-12T12:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 27.13 35.0 2022-07-11T10:28Z -1.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-11T15:51Z 6.48 58.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.25 - 6.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-05T04:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-07T06:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: This partial halo CME is very faint but can be seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source is likely the eruption from AR 3047 seen best in SDO AIA 171 and 304 at 2022-07-05T04:01Z. This eruption is also visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. The CME arrival appears to begin mid-day on July 7th with definite and strong rotations in all the field components and there also seems to be a shock characterized by a sharp increase in the total magnetic field and proton density. The end of this CME is not very clear due to the presence of a high speed stream which follows but a further slight enhancement of magnetic field and solar wind speed is noted to start around 2022-07-08T00:21Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-08T14:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 32.47 ---- 2022-07-05T20:15Z 33.78 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-08T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 29.97 30.0 2022-07-06T05:53Z 24.15 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-07-08T14:19Z (-2.1h, +4.0h) 32.28 33.0 2022-07-06T17:39Z 12.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-07-08T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 32.97 35.0 2022-07-07T06:36Z -0.57 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-08T13:57Z 31.92 32.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-07-03T03:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-07T08:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: A very faint partial halo CME seen West in STEREO A COR2 starting 2022-07-03T03:09Z and very faintly Northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 after 2022-07-03T02:00, barely seen in C3. The CME overlaps with a later West-directed 2022-07-03T04:12Z CME after a couple timestamps in COR2Abut can be seen propagating out almost to the field of view. A possible source of this event could be a very slow, faint but large-area post-eruptive arcades on the southern side of the large coronal hole at disk center on 2022-07-02. These post-eruptive arcades slowly close out more than half of the coronal hole over the course of 2022-07-03, so it potentially there was a very slow large and central filament eruption. Arrival signature is characterized by a rapid increase in solar wind speed, density and temperature and magnetic field to near 8nT with further enhancements to above 20 nT, followed by rotation of magnetic field components and a protracted period of negative Bz reaching almost 20 nT.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-07T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.87 ---- 2022-07-04T20:17Z 59.85 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-07T13:00Z 4.87 ---- --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-06-29T02:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-03T07:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2, possible faint partial halo in the N in SOHO LASCO C2. May be associated with filament eruption centered near N25E15, visible in SDO AIA 193 beginning 2022-06-28T21:48Z. Notes on the CME arrival from the LASSOS team: the start of the (sheath and fluxrope) for this CME are not clear. A potential start time for the flux rope can be 2022-07-03T19:20Z, where the rotation starts and density drops below 5 particles per cm^3. The CME signature is impacted by a very brief high speed stream which overtakes the CME at around 2022-07-03T23:00Z, when the density starts to increase.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-07-03T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.02 ---- 2022-06-29T13:03Z 89.97 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-04T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 34.98 ---- 2022-06-29T18:00Z 85.02 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-07-03T23:30Z 16.48 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-06-19T21:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2 and in the E in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Overlaps with outflow from previous CME in SOHO imagery. May possibly be associated with filament eruption near N30E40, visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-06-19T20:55Z and SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 beginning 2022-06-19T21:07Z. Some deflection in the SDO FOV. Very narrow event (perhaps 6-8 degrees half-width) and a very diffuse leading edge, apparently directed toward the narrow region between STEREO A and SOHO spacecraft. UPDATE (2022-06-23T13:00Z): The arrival of this CME at L1 may possibly have been detected by DSCOVR at 2022-06-22T11:27Z, but the magnetic signature is weak and the solar wind data inconclusive.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-06-22T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-06-20T11:37Z 48.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-22T13:37Z (-3.2h, +3.2h) ---- 45.0 2022-06-20T14:27Z 47.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-22T12:48Z ---- 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-06-13T03:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-15T04:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: This CME is seen as a partial halo to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an eruption from AR 3032 (N21E44) around 2022-06-13T02:45Z seen best in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. The eruption is accompanied by an M3.4 flare from AR 3032, an opening of field lines, and post eruptive dimming and loops seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, and 193 starting to form around 05:00Z. The eruption is also seen about N30E30 in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304, where an EUV wave is observed in STEREO A EUVI 195 around 03:25Z. L1 arrival signature: B total sharply increased to 14 nT at 04:01Z, accompanied by rotation of magnetic field components and a brief sharp increase in density and temperature. Solar wind velocity increased from around 475 km/s to around 620 km/s in as seen in DSCOVR data. Flux rope is seen some time after 07:00Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-06-15T00:21Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.67 ---- 2022-06-13T13:36Z 38.42 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-06-15T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 7.98 25.0 2022-06-13T16:00Z 36.02 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-15T06:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 1.98 30.0 2022-06-13T17:45Z 34.27 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-06-15T04:47Z 0.77 ---- 2022-06-13T17:50Z 34.18 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-06-14T15:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -13.02 75.0 2022-06-13T22:06Z 29.92 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-14T23:52Z (-5.4h, +7.5h) -4.15 100.0 2022-06-13T23:00Z 29.02 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-15T05:00Z 0.98 90.0 2022-06-14T00:50Z 27.18 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-06-14T20:07Z (-4.0h, +12.0h) -7.90 ---- 2022-06-14T09:00Z 19.02 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-06-15T15:17Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 11.27 ---- 2022-06-14T09:03Z 18.97 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-06-15T03:22Z -0.65 64.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.83333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-06-04T03:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the north of STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption centered around N40E25 as seen from SDO AIA 191 and 304 imagery at 2022-06-04T02:00Z. The eruption can also be seen north of center disk from STEREO A EUVI 195.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-06-08T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-06-04T14:35Z 81.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-06-07T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-06-05T11:43Z 54.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-06-07T21:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-06-02T06:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-06-06T09:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: The likely source for this CME is a filament eruption which is centered around on S35W40 best seen in SDO AIA 193/171/304 A starting around 2022-06-02T05:20Z, though it was noted in SDO 171 that faint field lines were seen leaving the disk which were out-ahead of the eruption off the limb and not associated with the filamentary material. Clear arrival signature at L1: sudden increase in B total to approximately 11.5 nT (eventually going to over 14 nT), accompanied by a sharp temporary increase in density to 51 n(cm^-3) and ion temperature. Clear shock in the magnetic field, rotation of the Bz component (briefly reaching -11 nT), gradual rotation of Bx. Solar wind speed jumped from 260 km/s to approximately 315 km/s.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-06-05T23:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h) -10.33 65.0 2022-06-02T05:07Z 100.22 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -90
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-06-05T16:58Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -16.37 ---- 2022-06-02T12:00Z 93.33 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-06-05T07:58Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -25.37 ---- 2022-06-02T12:02Z 93.30 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-06-05T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -32.33 70.0 2022-06-02T12:06Z 93.23 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-05T19:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.53 ---- 2022-06-02T16:17Z 89.05 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-05T04:34Z -28.77 ---- 2022-06-02T16:20Z 89.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-06-06T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -9.33 40.0 2022-06-02T22:28Z 82.87 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-06-05T19:17Z (-5.1h, +6.2h) -14.05 71.0 2022-06-02T22:35Z 82.75 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-06-05T14:34Z -18.77 61.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-06-01T01:54:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME is seen to the west in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is likely the filament eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304 near Active Region 3023 (S13W15) around 2022-06-01T00:30Z. Although there is a data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 from 05-31T23:25Z to 06-01T01:55Z, a dimming region is seen in the west after imagery reappears. This agrees with the direction the CME is headed in STEREO A COR2 imagery. From LASSOS regarding L1 signature on 06-05: No ICME - per looking at the proton density (which keeps increasing during this time period) and ion temperature (which is not low as we can expect for a CME). The solar wind bulk speed is really low during this time which can be a reason for the observed higher proton density since slower solar wind is denser. Looking at the magnetic field components, there are traces of rotations but none of them are complete and coherent rotations.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-06-05T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-06-01T17:40Z 88.33 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-06-05T10:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-25T18:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Moves quickly through C2 FOV. Associated with eruption in vicinity of AR 13016 (S18W42), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-05-25T18:01Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-28T15:23Z ---- ---- 2022-05-26T06:00Z 57.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-05-28T10:11Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-05-26T12:56Z 45.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-28T02:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- 70.0 2022-05-26T17:50Z 32.17 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-05-27T19:50Z (-7.0h, +8.0h) ---- 24.0 2022-05-26T22:10Z 21.67 ---- Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-27T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2022-05-26T22:35Z 21.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-05-27T21:20Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-27T06:00Z 15.33 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-05-28T10:42Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-27T06:02Z 28.67 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-05-28T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-27T12:09Z 16.85 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-28T04:03Z ---- 36.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-23T12:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The likely source is an C5.2 class flare associated eruption from AR3017 (about N14W23). Brightening is seen SDO AIA 131 while an EUV wave is seen propagating to the south and east towards the central meridian.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-28T15:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-23T18:05Z 117.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-29T11:26Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 5.0 2022-05-24T13:05Z 118.35 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-29T01:28Z ---- 5.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-21T00:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The likely source is an eruption from AR3011 (N18W31) which was associated with a C5.2 class flare occurring around 2022-05-20T23:30Z. After the brightening, filament material is ejected to the north and west as seen in SDO AIA 304A. Soon after this eruption, a complex signature is observed in SOHO running difference imagery with a large, faint and fast shock on the order of >1000 km/s emanating to the north which may or may not be associated with this flare. UPDATE (2022-05-24) from LASSOS Team: There is a structure in solar wind beginning before 2022-05-23T18:00Z with some elements of a weak flux rope signature (namely, smooth rotation), but it is very short and there is no magnetic amplification and the solar wind density, speed, and temperature are inconclusive. There may be a Solar Sector Boundary Crossing in this signature.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-23T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-05-21T18:07Z 36.88 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-23T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-05-21T18:11Z 46.82 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-24T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-22T18:37Z 40.38 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-23T16:19Z (-15.6h, +17.8h) ---- 66.0 2022-05-22T19:12Z 21.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-24T00:25Z ---- ---- 2022-05-22T19:35Z 28.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-05-24T00:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 30.0 2022-05-23T02:42Z 21.30 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-05-23T20:37Z ---- 34.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.83333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-17T09:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo NNE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May be associated with an eruption from AR 13011 (N16E20), visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2022-05-17T08:21Z. Also associated with a double flare from AR 13011. UPDATE (2022-05-24) from LASSOS Team: Bz rotation at the end of 2022-05-21 but it is very short and there are no clear coincidental ICME signatures and no magnetic shock at L1 associated with it. If there is an ICME arrival, it comes at the back of a High Speed Stream, and the ICME signature is extremely weak.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-21T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-17T20:29Z 92.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-21T17:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-17T06:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is observed to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It is also observed to the SW in STEREO A COR2, but is partially obscured by streamer. The source signature for this CME is an eruption from Active Region 31010 (S16E21) with an associated C2.9 flare as seen in SDO AIA 131/193 starting around 2022-05-17T06:03Z. UPDATE (2022-05-24T11:30Z) from LASSOS Team: There is no clear magnetic shock at L1 associated with this ICME. If there is an ICME arrival, it comes at the back of a High Speed Stream, and the ICME signature is weak.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-20T05:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-17T16:50Z 60.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-20T05:30Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-10T14:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-05-13T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the SE and S of SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 and the far south of STEREO A COR2. Associated with an X1.5 flare from AR 3006 starting at 2022-05-10T13:50Z and a subsequent EUV wave seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195. The associated eruption is characterized by dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193. It is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195. It overlaps with the CME first visible in the southeast of SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-05-10T15:12Z, causing some confusion in its analysis, as there are two simultaneous fronts seen in the first few images of LASCO C2 but only one front clearly seen in COR2A and C3. UPDATE (2022-05-24T) from LASSOS Team: Signature indicating possible interaction of this CME and SIR starting after ~2022-05-14T10:00Z. This interaction makes shock less clear. The SIR clears the region of material that might otherwise propagate the shock. The ICME possibly started before the SIR start - at the end of 2022-05-13 there is a smooth B-field signature indicative of an ICME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-13T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.00 ---- 2022-05-10T20:45Z 72.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-13T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.00 ---- 2022-05-10T23:52Z 69.13 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-13T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 2.50 60.0 2022-05-11T13:15Z 55.75 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-14T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 7.00 ---- 2022-05-11T18:56Z 50.07 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-13T22:52Z 1.87 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-06T21:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the NNW in STEREO A COR2. Associated with field line rising faintly visible over NW limb in SDO AIA 171 beginning 2022-05-06T18:45Z. Associated with filament eruption centered near N40E40, visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-05-06T19:03Z. Complicated leading edge structure with two apparent leading edges, but the entire structure is moving together. Analysis of L1 signature on 05-10 and 05-11 by LASSOS: No CME on 05-10: magnetic field components do not display smooth rotations, the proton density is not low, and the ion temperature is really low but has been low starting with 05-08. 05-10: increases in the magnetic field, proton density, and bulk speed are probably happening because the faster solar wind is catching up to the slower solar wind and compression is happening at the interface. If we look at late 05-12 and beyond, the sharp increases on 05-11 are associated with a possible SIR (see around 12:00 on May 12).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-11T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-07T12:25Z 94.58 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-10T15:00Z ---- 40.0 2022-05-07T22:05Z 64.92 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - --
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-05-10T20:00Z (-13.0h, +13.0h) ---- ---- 2022-05-08T00:30Z 67.50 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-10T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 35.0 2022-05-09T10:22Z 34.63 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-10T22:45Z ---- 37.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-05-03T18:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-05-08T06:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the NW in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely the dimming seen near disk center above AR 3004 in SDO AIA 171 around 2022-05-03T15:00Z. This dimming is also observed to the west in STEREO A EUVI 195 around the same time. UPDATE (2022-05-09T16:27Z): Weak arrival signature indicated by sudden but weak field amplification (only to about 8.5 nT), accompanied by component rotation. Because the L1 solar wind is otherwise quiet, we can see an associated pileup beginning around 2022-05-08T08:03Z. The speed and temperature increase, but they're still pretty low at around 330-340 km/s and 25-35 kK, so these are inconclusive. There are potential signs of separate sheath and flux rope at 2022-05-08T06:24Z and 2022-05-08T12:43Z, respectively.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-08T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.60 ---- 2022-05-04T18:18Z 84.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-06T16:00Z -38.40 ---- 2022-05-04T23:25Z 78.98 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -135
Dst min. time: 2022-05-07T12:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2022-05-07T18:00Z -12.40 40.0 2022-05-05T17:40Z 60.73 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-05-08T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.60 ---- 2022-05-05T20:00Z 58.40 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-05-07T16:52Z -13.53 ---- 2022-05-06T03:04Z 51.33 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-05-06T10:32Z -43.87 ---- 2022-05-06T03:06Z 51.30 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-05-07T13:04Z -17.33 40.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-29T07:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source is the eruption from AR 2996 (N25W40) starting around 2022-04-29T07:21Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. Also visible on the NW limb of STA EUVI 195 around the same time. Post eruptive loops and dimming happens around 08:00Z. Associated with the M1.2 flare peaking at 07:30 from AR 2996.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-05-01T04:05Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-29T18:00Z 34.08 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-01T05:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-04-29T19:57Z 33.05 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-05-01T23:43Z ---- ---- 2022-04-29T20:00Z 51.72 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-05-01T06:41Z (-9.4h, +6.1h) ---- 75.0 2022-04-29T23:04Z 31.62 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-02T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-04-30T00:11Z 52.82 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-05-02T07:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-30T01:39Z 53.35 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-05-01T16:34Z ---- 38.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.6 - 6.2
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-29T23:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: An eruption from the vicinity of AR2996 was observed using Stereo-A EUVI imagery around 2022-04-27T14:00Z, since a maneuver/calibration at SDO was occurring at the time of the eruption.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-30T08:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 9.05 ---- 2022-04-27T19:16Z 52.18 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-04-30T08:43Z (-1.0h, +1.0h) 9.27 6.0 2022-04-27T20:21Z 51.10 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-29T22:39Z -0.80 ---- 2022-04-27T21:00Z 50.45 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-04-29T18:35Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -4.87 ---- 2022-04-27T21:00Z 50.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-30T07:06Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 7.65 ---- 2022-04-27T21:00Z 50.45 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-30T01:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) 1.55 70.0 2022-04-28T00:52Z 46.58 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-04-29T22:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -1.45 ---- 2022-04-28T02:39Z 44.80 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-04-30T04:00Z 4.55 70.0 2022-04-28T10:16Z 37.18 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-04-30T02:34Z 3.12 48.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-27T08:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source is the eruption from AR2996 around 2022-04-27T08:20Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304. Also seen in STA EUVI 195 and 304 in the NW quadrant. Associated with a C3.3 flare from AR2996.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-30T08:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-27T19:16Z 61.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-04-30T08:43Z (-1.0h, +1.0h) ---- 6.0 2022-04-27T20:21Z 60.37 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-30T08:36Z ---- 6.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-26T14:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The eruption is likely associated with a small filament eruption from the vicinity of AR 2996 (N24W07) which erupts around 2022-04-26T14:24Z as seen in SDO AIA 304 with associated coronal dimming in SDO AIA 193.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-29T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-26T19:14Z 72.77 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-29T06:06Z ---- ---- 2022-04-26T20:06Z 58.00 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-04-29T18:07Z (-2.0h, +1.2h) ---- 10.0 2022-04-26T23:27Z 66.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-04-29T10:01Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-27T07:00Z 51.02 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-29T12:03Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-27T07:00Z 53.05 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-29T13:15Z ---- 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.66667
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-21T02:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the far north in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an M9.6 flare and eruption from AR 2933. The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave and opening field lines first seen around 2022-04-21T01:50Z and is followed by post eruptive arcades. It is also visible north of disk center as seen from STEREO A EUVI 195.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-25T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-21T16:26Z 79.57 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-25T00:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-11T06:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-14T03:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. The source is a C1.6 flare and eruption from an unnumbered region around S15E05. The eruption starts around 2022-04-11T05:00Z and is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption can also be seen in SDO AIA 304. The eruption is visible in the SW quadrant of STEREO A EUVI imagery. As for the arrival, solar wind speed increased from ~400 km/s at 2022-04-14T03:00Z to 480 km/s at 09:20Z. Magnetic field components increase around 03:30Z with Btotal exceeding 10nT at 08:43Z, likely from the flux rope arrival. Density shows a gradual increase beginning at 03:30Z as well.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-14T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.38 ---- 2022-04-11T10:00Z 65.62 Max Kp Range: -- - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-14T09:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 6.32 ---- 2022-04-11T12:52Z 62.75 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-04-14T04:31Z 0.90 ---- 2022-04-11T14:30Z 61.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-04-14T12:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 8.38 90.0 2022-04-11T17:02Z 58.58 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-04-14T09:34Z (-10.2h, +12.2h) 5.95 100.0 2022-04-11T21:36Z 54.02 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-13T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -11.62 80.0 2022-04-12T00:41Z 50.93 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-04-14T12:54Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 9.28 ---- 2022-04-12T07:00Z 44.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-14T06:24Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 2.78 ---- 2022-04-12T07:00Z 44.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-14T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 13.38 70.0 2022-04-12T08:21Z 43.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-14T08:02Z 4.42 85.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.14286
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-09T09:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-12T10:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the southwest of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen slowly lifting off in the southwest of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2022-04-09T05:15Z. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 171 and in the southwest of STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME sheath/shock arrived at 2022-04-12T10:33Z and the flux rope arrived at 2022-04-13T01:54Z. The flux rope arrival was used as the IPS entry arrival time in DONKI as the flux rope arrival was responsible for a 10nT threshold crossing in Btotal. Btotal had only reached a maximum Btotal of ~8nT for the shock arrival.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-12T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 11.45 ---- 2022-04-09T18:50Z 63.72 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-04-13T02:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 15.45 40.0 2022-04-10T07:15Z 51.30 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-04-13T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 35.45 30.0 2022-04-10T21:55Z 36.63 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-04-12T15:13Z (-6.0h, +4.0h) 4.67 37.0 2022-04-11T13:00Z 21.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-04-13T03:18Z 16.75 35.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-04T11:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-08T03:39Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Partial halo CME mostly NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and NE in COR2A. Its source is a filament eruption and opening field lines from the vicinity of AR 12983 (approximately N23E19). The arrival of this CME is marked by a weak shock with the magnetic field increasing to just above 10nT, and a jump in solar wind speed from ~365 km/s to 385 km/s and an increase in density to 15 particles/cc.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-08T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.35 ---- 2022-04-05T15:17Z 60.37 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-08T00:23Z (-6.1h, +8.9h) -3.27 12.0 2022-04-06T04:16Z 47.38 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-08T03:11Z -0.47 12.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-06T22:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large filament eruption best seen in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in SDO/AIA 304 and along the western limb in a few frames of STEREO A EUVI 304. The CME is first visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 followed by SOHO LASCO C2 and C3.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-06T12:00Z -10.75 70.0 2022-04-03T05:44Z 89.02 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-04-05T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -24.75 80.0 2022-04-04T11:08Z 59.62 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-06T09:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.02 ---- 2022-04-04T21:38Z 49.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-06T08:15Z -14.50 ---- 2022-04-05T06:15Z 40.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-04-06T12:02Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -10.72 ---- 2022-04-05T07:00Z 39.75 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-06T13:42Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -9.05 ---- 2022-04-05T07:00Z 39.75 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-06T07:17Z (-7.4h, +9.1h) -15.47 100.0 2022-04-05T21:26Z 25.32 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-06T08:42Z -14.05 83.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.2
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-04-02T13:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large CME seen to the west in STEREO A COR2, in SOHO LASCO C2, and C3. The source of this CME is a M3.9 class flare from AR12975 peaking at 2022-04-02T13:55Z and the associated filament eruption. EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 171, 211, 193, and STEREO A EUVI 195. The eruption begins around 13:00Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-04T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-02T17:38Z 46.37 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-04T12:47Z ---- ---- 2022-04-02T18:00Z 42.78 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-04-04T13:06Z (-10.15h, +9.517h) ---- 52.0 2022-04-03T01:18Z 35.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-04T01:48Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-03T07:00Z 18.80 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-04T22:41Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-03T07:00Z 39.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-04T13:16Z ---- 52.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.66667
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-31T19:09:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source is the M9.6-class flare from AR2975 peaking at 2022-03-31T18:35Z from N13W48. Associated eruption seen through the opening of field lines in STEREO A EUVI 195 from behind the west limb around 2022-03-31T19:15Z. Post eruptive darkening and an EUV wave is seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2022-03-31T18:31Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-04T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-04-01T14:12Z 60.80 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-05T03:32Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 15.0 2022-04-01T21:27Z 78.08 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-03T19:25Z (-3.533h, +3.183h) ---- 14.0 2022-04-02T03:31Z 39.90 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-04T08:39Z ---- 14.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-30T18:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the W in STEREO A COR2 and as an asymmetric halo slightly NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with X1.3 flare from AR 12975, eruption visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-03-30T17:30Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-04-02T05:41Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-30T21:48Z 55.88 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-02T06:38Z ---- ---- 2022-03-30T22:30Z 56.13 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-04-02T06:21Z ---- ---- 2022-03-31T08:41Z 45.67 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-04-02T02:37Z ---- ---- 2022-03-31T08:44Z 41.88 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-04-03T15:00Z ---- ---- 2022-03-31T09:26Z 77.57 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-02T06:36Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-31T22:30Z 32.10 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-02T13:14Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-31T22:30Z 38.73 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-04-02T12:25Z (-8.3h, +12.0h) ---- 100.0 2022-04-01T01:42Z 34.72 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-01T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 15.0 2022-04-01T21:21Z 2.15 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-04-02T10:13Z ---- 57.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.75
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T01:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is observed as a halo structure in both SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light coronagraph imagery. It is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 12975 (N12W06) and eruption signature visible in SDO AIA 171/193 exhibiting a notable brightening/field line movement starting around 2022-03-28T19:03Z. The shock from the combined front of this CME and preceding 2022-03-28T12:09Z CME is observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, followed by the the first flux rope (possibly the flux rope for2022-03-28T12:09Z CME) starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z. We are likely seeing the start of another flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. The end of this second ICME seems to happen on the morning of 2022-04-02 when the field becomes more turbulent, and density increases (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-31T11:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 9.97 ---- 2022-03-29T07:00Z 42.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-31T16:10Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 14.48 ---- 2022-03-29T07:00Z 42.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-31T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.68 ---- 2022-03-29T07:31Z 42.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T23:05Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 21.40 70.0 2022-03-29T13:01Z 36.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T04:12Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.52 ---- 2022-03-29T15:45Z 33.93 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T10:07Z 8.43 ---- 2022-03-29T17:37Z 32.07 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-03-31T12:00Z 10.32 ---- 2022-03-29T19:56Z 29.75 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-31T06:10Z (-6.7h, +5.9h) 4.48 100.0 2022-03-30T00:16Z 25.42 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T02:00Z 0.32 70.0 2022-03-30T01:05Z 24.60 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-03-31T15:29Z 13.80 ---- 2022-03-30T07:11Z 18.50 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-31T07:00Z 5.32 ---- 2022-03-30T07:19Z 18.37 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-31T14:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 12.32 30.0 2022-03-31T15:05Z -13.40 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-31T10:14Z 8.55 67.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.28571 - 6.57143
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-28T12:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T01:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: This CME is visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light imagery. It is associated with an M4.0 flare and eruption from AR 12975 (N12W01). The eruption is characterized by an EUV wave and dimming that is best seen in SDO AIA 193 around 2022-03-28T11:21Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest quadrant from the viewpoint of STEREO A EUVI 195. The shock from what is probably the combined front of this CME and the 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME was observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, it was followed by the sheath and the CME flux rope starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z (a more coherent magnetic field, rotations, and the sudden drop in proton density at the transition between the sheath to the CME flux rope). We might be seeing the second flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS)
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-31T10:17Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 8.60 ---- 2022-03-28T12:00Z 61.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-31T09:58Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 8.28 ---- 2022-03-28T12:00Z 61.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-31T08:49Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 7.13 ---- 2022-03-28T16:20Z 57.35 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T05:08Z 3.45 ---- 2022-03-28T18:00Z 55.68 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-03-31T10:51Z (-6.1h, +6.2h) 9.17 100.0 2022-03-29T00:41Z 49.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T03:00Z 1.32 ---- 2022-03-29T00:59Z 48.70 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-31T12:00Z 10.32 80.0 2022-03-29T02:40Z 47.02 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-03-31T07:24Z 5.72 ---- 2022-03-29T03:01Z 46.67 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-30T22:44Z -2.95 ---- 2022-03-29T03:04Z 46.62 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-31T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.68 ---- 2022-03-29T07:31Z 42.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T06:29Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 4.80 70.0 2022-03-29T13:01Z 36.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T04:12Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.52 ---- 2022-03-29T15:45Z 33.93 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T12:00Z 10.32 ---- 2022-03-29T19:50Z 29.85 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-31T06:10Z (-6.7h, +5.9h) 4.48 100.0 2022-03-30T00:16Z 25.42 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-31T06:51Z 5.17 87.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-25T06:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is first visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the SW in STEREO A COR2. As the CME propagates out of the field of view, the halo feature becomes more clear in both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The source of this CME is the M1.4 class flare from AR12974 (~S19E36) that peaked at 2022-03-25T05:26Z (based off of GOES-17 data). The flare and the associated EUV wave (which, as seen in SDO/AIA 193/171 seems to be directed mostly towards the West) are clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 171, 211, and 94. The associated dimming is not pronounced. There is a data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 during this event, but a change in the associated Active Region is visible after the data gap. UPDATE (2022-03-29T20:05Z) from Fernando: I do not see any signature of an ICME any of the days [2022-03-27 to 03-28]. There is a clear SIR crossing, though.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-27T06:00Z ---- ---- 2022-03-25T18:00Z 36.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-27T21:20Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-25T18:21Z 50.98 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-28T14:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-25T21:46Z 64.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-28T03:57Z ---- ---- 2022-03-25T22:00Z 53.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-03-27T23:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) ---- 80.0 2022-03-26T00:20Z 46.67 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-27T22:25Z (-6.2h, +4.1h) ---- 100.0 2022-03-26T03:59Z 42.43 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-28T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2022-03-26T12:23Z 47.62 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-28T10:00Z ---- 70.0 2022-03-26T15:15Z 42.75 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-03-27T16:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-26T17:44Z 23.13 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-28T04:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-27T07:00Z 21.47 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-28T04:02Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-27T07:00Z 21.03 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-28T01:38Z ---- 72.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 5.625
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-20T11:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and in the NW in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an eruption from AR 12971 (N17E11), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-03-20T07:30Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-24T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-20T13:54Z 83.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-23T15:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-20T16:35Z 70.92 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-23T08:36Z (-1.4h, +2.1h) ---- 8.0 2022-03-20T23:36Z 57.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-24T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2022-03-21T11:03Z 72.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-24T23:00Z ---- 50.0 2022-03-22T06:15Z 64.75 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-24T13:46Z ---- ---- 2022-03-22T12:28Z 49.30 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-24T01:40Z ---- 26.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.4 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2022-03-23T09:48Z ---- ---- 2022-03-22T12:30Z 21.30 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail

CME: 2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T20:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Filament eruption begins around 2022-03-16T12:35Z and is seen well in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 in the NE quadrant. Following this, brightening and an associated EUV wave is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 193. Post eruptive arcades are then visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at 13:24Z. Arrival Note: Gradual field amplification accompanied by flux rope and pileup. Field amplitude only exceeds 10 nT for one data point at 2022-03-20T07:00Z, and there is no clear sudden shock. Associated with Kp reaching 3 during synoptic periods 2022-03-20T00:00Z-06:00Z and slight magnetospheric compression to about 8.5 Re at 2022-03-20T03:38Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-20T00:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 3.28 ---- 2022-03-16T20:35Z 72.37 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-19T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.95 ---- 2022-03-16T21:27Z 71.50 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-19T12:21Z -8.60 ---- 2022-03-17T04:00Z 64.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-03-20T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 23.05 30.0 2022-03-17T09:38Z 59.32 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-19T22:20Z (-12.0h, +20.0h) 1.38 100.0 2022-03-17T18:58Z 49.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-20T15:00Z 18.05 ---- 2022-03-17T19:08Z 49.82 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-20T07:13Z 10.27 ---- 2022-03-18T02:50Z 42.12 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-19T11:59Z -8.97 ---- 2022-03-18T02:54Z 42.05 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-19T23:45Z 2.80 65.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-10T19:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-13T10:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: Visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2 and as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with an eruption, dimming, and EUV wave SE of AR2962 (N12W12), best seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2022-03-10T18:42Z. Associated with below-threshold increase in greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES-P beginning 2022-03-10T23:15Z and below-threshold increase in 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A IMPACT beginning 2022-03-11T01:00Z. | ARRIVAL NOTE UPDATE - from DONKI IPS entry (2022-03-13T06:35:00-IPS-001): Sudden jump in magnetic field amplitude reaching 20 nT as well as a jump in speed, density, and temperature. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components with a decrease in temperature indicating a flux rope passage. Bz mostly north during the flux rope passage starting around 2022-03-13T22:00Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-13T21:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 10.82 ---- 2022-03-11T04:00Z 54.18 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-14T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 13.82 ---- 2022-03-11T06:00Z 52.18 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-13T23:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 12.82 80.0 2022-03-11T06:30Z 51.68 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-13T15:59Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 5.80 ---- 2022-03-11T07:00Z 51.18 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-13T16:38Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 6.45 ---- 2022-03-11T07:00Z 51.18 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-13T11:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.40 ---- 2022-03-11T13:48Z 44.38 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-14T01:00Z 14.82 70.0 2022-03-11T14:20Z 43.85 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-03-13T11:51Z 1.67 ---- 2022-03-11T14:30Z 43.68 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-03-13T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 7.82 80.0 2022-03-11T15:29Z 42.70 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T09:11Z (-7.5h, +9.2h) -1.00 97.0 2022-03-11T18:23Z 39.80 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T12:36Z 2.42 ---- 2022-03-13T01:55Z 8.27 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-13T08:01Z -2.17 ---- 2022-03-13T01:56Z 8.25 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-13T16:24Z 6.22 81.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.42857 - 6.57143
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-10T02:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a southward halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S40E50, visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-03-09T21:30Z. Second of a 2-CME eruption from this filament.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-13T21:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-10T16:09Z 76.85 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-10T21:29Z 63.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T11:43Z (-0.5h, +0.5h) ---- 8.0 2022-03-11T00:05Z 59.63 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 80.0 2022-03-11T14:30Z 51.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T15:00Z ---- ---- 2022-03-12T02:26Z 36.57 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-13T18:58Z ---- ---- 2022-03-13T02:17Z 16.68 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-12T23:32Z ---- 0.0 2022-03-13T02:21Z -2.82 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-13T13:53Z ---- 29.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 4.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-10T00:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a southward halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S40E50, visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-03-09T21:30Z. First of a 2-CME eruption from this filament.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-13T23:00Z ---- 20.0 2022-03-10T13:22Z 81.63 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-13T21:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-10T16:09Z 76.85 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T13:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-10T21:29Z 63.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T11:43Z (-0.5h, +0.5h) ---- 8.0 2022-03-11T00:05Z 59.63 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 80.0 2022-03-11T14:30Z 51.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-13T17:52Z ---- ---- 2022-03-13T03:18Z 14.57 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-13T17:25Z ---- 36.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.6 - 4.8
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-08T04:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The likely source is an eruption from the vicinity of Active Region 2958. Dimming and opening magnetic field lines as well as an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 193 A starting around 2022-03-08T03:24Z, while in SDO 304 A, longitudinal brightening occurs along the active region with ejecta and bright post eruptive loops. UPDATE (2022-03-11T19:55Z): There is a weak magnetic shock at 2022-03-11T10:59Z that may possibly be associated with this CME, but the solar wind density data are inconclusive and the solar wind speed and temperature data do not support a CME arrival, and this may be part of the previous CME arrival signature which began 2022-03-10T18:37Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-11T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-08T18:15Z 73.75 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-03-10T23:02Z ---- ---- 2022-03-08T20:00Z 51.03 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-03-12T03:00Z (-8.0h, +4.0h) ---- 30.0 2022-03-08T22:50Z 76.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 2.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-11T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 1.0 2022-03-09T01:43Z 68.28 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-11T17:00Z ---- 15.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-07T00:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T18:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: This CME is first seen as a faint partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 (later in C3) and followed by a more bright and slightly more narrow shape to the W/NW in STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an eruption to the E/SE of AR12958 (N17W28) stretching across multiple longitudes from ~W20 to ~W45 based off of the dimming signature seen in SDO/AIA 193. The eruption is best seen in the SDO/AIA 193, 211, 94, 335, and STEREO A EUVI 195 wavelengths. From STEREO A's point of view, the eruption appears as opening field lines along the Eastern limb, while in SDO/AIA's point of view, the eruption is more clear with dimming, a post-eruptive arcade, and a brief EUV wave (seen best in SDO/AIA 211). UPDATE (2022-03-11T14:50Z): Arrival Field indicated by enhancement exceeding 10 nT, accompanied by field component rotation. Preceded by pileup, followed by slight speed increase. Temperature data inconclusive.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-10T13:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.98 ---- 2022-03-07T20:25Z 70.20 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-10T15:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -3.62 60.0 2022-03-08T00:26Z 66.18 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -30
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-10T00:17Z -18.33 ---- 2022-03-08T01:00Z 65.62 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-03-10T11:26Z (-2.8h, +2.317h) -7.18 6.0 2022-03-08T02:22Z 64.25 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-10T10:48Z -7.82 ---- 2022-03-08T02:59Z 63.63 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-09T11:39Z -30.97 ---- 2022-03-08T03:01Z 63.60 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-10T21:00Z 2.38 ---- 2022-03-08T06:40Z 59.95 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-11T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 12.38 60.0 2022-03-08T13:04Z 53.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-10T12:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.43 ---- 2022-03-09T07:00Z 35.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-10T01:48Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -16.82 ---- 2022-03-09T07:00Z 35.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-03-10T10:28Z -8.15 42.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 4.4
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-05T00:01:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-09T18:00Z ---- 20.0 2022-03-06T03:30Z 86.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-10T08:32Z ---- ---- 2022-03-06T06:19Z 98.22 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-07T15:46Z ---- ---- 2022-03-06T06:23Z 33.38 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2022-03-10T15:44Z (-2.5h, +2.5h) ---- ---- 2022-03-09T20:30Z 19.23 ---- ELEvoHI Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) Detail
2022-03-09T14:30Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-02T18:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: The CME is associated with the M2.0 class from Active Region 12958 (N18E27) peaking at 2022-03-02T17:39Z and the eruption marked by an EUV wave and seen in EUVI A 195 and AIA 193 after 2022-03-02T17:45Z. UPDATE (2022-03-09T17:45Z): There is no conclusive arrival signature for this ICME. The L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the 2022-03-05 high speed stream.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-06T09:00Z ---- ---- 2022-03-02T23:36Z 81.40 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-06T12:00Z ---- 30.0 2022-03-03T13:20Z 70.67 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-03-06T05:00Z ---- 30.0 2022-03-03T15:12Z 61.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-06T17:00Z ---- ---- 2022-03-04T03:20Z 61.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-06T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-04T22:07Z 29.88 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-06T09:24Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.6 - 4.8
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-03-02T15:04:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Faint CME is likely associated with an eruption marked by the relatively small area dimming in the vicinity of AR2956 visible in SDO AIA 193 imagery starting around 2022-03-02T14:45Z. UPDATE (2022-03-09T17:41Z): There is a short-duration field component rotation beginning 2022-03-05T10:30Z that may possibly be an arrival signature for this ICME, but the L1 solar wind signature is dominated by the 2022-03-05 high speed stream and an ICME signature is inconclusive.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-03-05T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-03-02T19:47Z 74.22 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-03-06T22:00Z ---- 10.0 2022-03-04T03:20Z 66.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-03-06T10:00Z ---- 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-02-19T10:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible as a partial halo N in STEREO A COR2, visible in NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source inconclusive, but possibly associated with some dimming/brightening in STEREO A EUVI 195 between 2022-02-19T05:45Z and 2022-02-19T08:55Z (data gap) and in SDO AIA 193 beginning around 2022-02-19T06:15Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-02-22T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-02-22T14:10Z -2.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-22T12:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-02-06T15:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: This CME is visible in the far north of SOHO LASCO C2 and in the northwest of STEREO A COR2. The source is unclear. It overlaps in STEREO A COR2 with the CME first seen in STEREO A COR2 at 2022-02-06T14:09Z, which was caused by a filament eruption near the Earth facing center disk. The L1 shock arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2022-02-06T14:09Z CME is around 2022-02-09T20:09Z and the flux rope part possibly starts around mid-day on 2022-02-10.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-02-09T23:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 2022-02-06T22:17Z 69.87 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-02-09T14:09Z (-7.1h, +7.0h) 100.0 2022-02-06T23:11Z 68.97 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-09T18:38Z 100.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-02-06T14:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-09T20:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: This is a partial halo CME as seen in the west of STEREO A COR2 and is seen in the far south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption beginning around 2022-02-06T12:04Z near AR 12939 characterized by a filament eruption best seen seen in SDO AIA 304, dimming and an EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171. The L1 shock arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2022-02-06T15:38 CME is around 2022-02-09T20:09Z and the flux rope part possibly starts around mid-day on 2022-02-10.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-02-09T22:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.35 ---- 2022-02-06T19:10Z 72.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-02-09T11:07Z -9.03 ---- 2022-02-06T20:30Z 71.65 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-02-09T23:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.98 ---- 2022-02-06T22:17Z 69.87 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-02-09T14:09Z (-7.1h, +7.0h) -6.00 100.0 2022-02-06T23:11Z 68.97 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-09T10:00Z -10.15 ---- 2022-02-07T01:15Z 66.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-02-10T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.85 ---- 2022-02-07T04:00Z 64.15 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-09T19:26Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -0.72 ---- 2022-02-07T07:00Z 61.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-02-09T13:42Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -6.45 ---- 2022-02-07T07:00Z 61.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-02-09T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -8.15 75.0 2022-02-07T10:29Z 57.67 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-09T19:00Z -1.15 ---- 2022-02-08T02:55Z 41.23 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-02-09T17:00Z -3.15 87.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-29T23:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-02-01T21:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Visible as a halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a partial halo to the W in STEREO A COR2. Associated with an eruption from AR 12936 (N17E10), visible in SDO AIA 171/193 (eruption/EUV wave) and SDO AIA 304 (post-eruptive arcades) beginning 2022-01-29T21:57Z. Also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-29T22:05Z. Associated with elevated 0.035-0.065 MeV electron flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:15Z and elevated 2.2-12 MeV proton flux at STEREO A beginning 2022-01-30T00:59Z. 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A remained at background level. UPDATE (2022-02-02T12:35Z): Arrival indicated by sudden jumps in density (exceeding 15 per cc), speed (exceeding 470 km/s), temperature, and field amplitude (exceeding 13 nT). This IPS arrival time is the arrival of the sheath, and the flux rope arrived around 2022-02-02T19:43Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-02-01T23:07Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 1.50 ---- 2022-01-30T12:00Z 57.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-02-01T21:29Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -0.13 ---- 2022-01-30T12:00Z 57.62 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-02-02T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 14.38 80.0 2022-01-30T12:47Z 56.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-01T19:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.02 ---- 2022-01-30T13:50Z 55.78 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-01T17:48Z -3.82 ---- 2022-01-30T16:00Z 53.62 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-02-02T04:00Z 6.38 ---- 2022-01-30T16:43Z 52.90 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-02-01T09:07Z (-12.2h, +17.1h) -12.50 100.0 2022-01-30T21:24Z 48.22 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-02T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 12.38 100.0 2022-01-31T00:11Z 45.43 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-02-02T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.38 ---- 2022-01-31T01:31Z 44.10 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-02-02T01:00Z 3.38 70.0 2022-01-31T01:37Z 44.00 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-02-01T23:48Z 2.18 87.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.83333 - 5.66667
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-25T13:25:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is faintly visible to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the S/SW in STEREO A COR2. The potential source of this CME is an eruption associated with dimming seen around S40E15 in STEREO A EUVI 195 starting around 2022-01-25T10:35Z. This source could not be confirmed with SDO/AIA data due to an outage.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-29T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-26T17:49Z 54.18 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-29T03:30Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2022-01-29T07:00Z ---- ---- 2022-01-26T23:50Z 55.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-25T02:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the NW in in STEREO A COR2 and to the N in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source of this CME is unclear due to a SDO/AIA data outage during the event and a data gap in STEREO A EUVI. The speculative source is AR12935 (N26E04) based off of an apparent eruption signature seen after the data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-28T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-25T20:01Z 67.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-01-28T16:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-23T10:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Initially visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2, later (2022-01-23T14:30Z) visible in NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Associated with a narrow filament eruption centered near N25E35, visible in SDO AIA 171/304 and STEREO A EUVI 304 beginning around 2022-01-23T08:00Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-26T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-23T16:12Z 73.80 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-26T18:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-23T17:59Z 72.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-26T13:27Z (-1.1h, +1.3h) ---- 6.0 2022-01-23T19:57Z 65.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-26T16:39Z ---- 6.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 3.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-22T12:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in the NW in STEREO A COR2, NE in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with a filament eruption near N40E20, visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-22T06:35Z. There is a fainter envelope surrounding the clear leading edge in both coronagraphs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-27T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-22T15:56Z 122.07 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-26T00:00Z ---- ---- 2022-01-23T00:41Z 71.32 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-01-26T21:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-21T09:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T17:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament/prominence eruption visible toward the SE limb of the Earth-facing disk in SDO AIA 193/304 near S20E60 (near AR 2934) starting around 2022-01-21T07:45Z. A corresponding dimming/ejection of material is visible to the SE in STEREO A EUVI 195 starting around the same time. The CME appears as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-20T09:09Z CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-24T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.15 ---- 2022-01-21T16:23Z 72.77 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-24T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -7.15 ---- 2022-01-21T20:03Z 69.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-24T00:58Z (-7.0h, +8.1h) -16.18 68.0 2022-01-21T23:42Z 65.45 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-24T01:23Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.77 ---- 2022-01-22T07:00Z 58.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-24T05:22Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -11.78 ---- 2022-01-22T07:00Z 58.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-24T05:56Z -11.22 68.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-20T09:09:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-24T17:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2022-01-20T08:00Z followed by notable dimming best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and some rising loops after the filament erupts (visible in both SDO/AIA 193 and 171). The source location is just NW of AR 12933. This is a possible combined arrival with the 2022-01-21T09:53Z CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-23T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -33.15 ---- 2022-01-19T02:00Z 135.15 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-24T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -11.15 ---- 2022-01-20T17:35Z 95.57 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-23T20:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -20.83 ---- 2022-01-20T20:09Z 93.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-23T21:00Z (-4.0h, +8.0h) -20.15 50.0 2022-01-21T04:30Z 84.65 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -20
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-01-23T16:15Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -24.90 ---- 2022-01-21T07:00Z 82.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-23T09:10Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -31.98 ---- 2022-01-21T07:00Z 82.15 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-23T17:00Z -24.15 50.0 2022-01-21T07:37Z 81.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-01-24T02:31Z (-5.4h, +4.3h) -14.63 62.0 2022-01-22T04:52Z 60.28 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-24T03:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -14.15 30.0 2022-01-22T15:25Z 49.73 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-01-23T19:28Z -21.68 48.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-19T06:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 imagery is associated with a filament eruption centered near S50W20 visible in SDO AIA 304 starting as early as 2022-01-19T02:46Z. The event is very faintly seen as a partial halo to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 white light coronagraph imagery. There is some rotation-like behavior in the field components, but there’s no magnetic shock and no arrival is supported by the density/speed/temperature data.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-23T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-19T20:05Z 78.92 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-23T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- 60.0 2022-01-20T08:00Z 79.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-01-23T09:00Z ---- 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-18T18:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-21T12:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is associated with an M1.5 flare from AR 12929 (N07W53) and brightening/EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 starting aorund 2022-01-18T17:20Z. The source signature is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 toward the NW limb around the same time. The CME arrival includes weak magnetic shock and jumps in solar wind density/speed/temp, preceded by a weak pileup.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-21T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -1.92 ---- 2022-01-18T23:54Z 61.02 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-21T02:23Z -10.53 ---- 2022-01-19T00:05Z 60.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-01-22T01:00Z (-6.0h, +8.0h) 12.08 65.0 2022-01-19T02:48Z 58.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Dst min. in nT: -25
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-01-20T20:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -16.03 ---- 2022-01-19T07:00Z 53.92 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-21T09:29Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.43 ---- 2022-01-19T07:00Z 53.92 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-21T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 5.08 30.0 2022-01-19T10:39Z 50.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-22T00:01Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 11.10 60.0 2022-01-19T12:30Z 48.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-01-21T14:01Z (-4.983h, +3.55h) 1.10 12.0 2022-01-20T01:00Z 35.92 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-21T23:00Z 10.08 60.0 2022-01-20T09:53Z 27.03 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-01-21T13:45Z 0.83 45.4 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.71429 - 4.28571
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-17T14:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-22T11:00Z ---- ---- 2022-01-18T04:15Z 102.75 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-01-21T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-18T18:01Z 64.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-21T23:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-16T20:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from active region 12929 (N08W30). The eruption is characterized by opening field lines and dimming best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2022-01-16T19:20Z. The eruption is also visible in the northwest in STEREO A EUVI 195 with the same source signatures. UPDATE: This arrival signature exhibits an increase B-tot from 5 to 9nT with a coinciding increase in density. A subsequent rotation can be seen in the B-field components corresponding with a decrease in temperature that is indicative of a flux rope passage.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-20T00:00Z 24.93 20.0 2022-01-18T03:18Z 19.77 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2022-01-20T09:00Z 33.93 ---- 2022-01-18T03:54Z 19.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2022-01-20T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 24.93 ---- 2022-01-18T18:01Z 5.05 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-20T03:00Z 27.93 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-15T16:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2022-01-18T23:04Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: The potential source is activity centered around N15W15, which includes an eruption with rising loops around 2022-01-15T12:00Z and eruption just south of the rising loops characterized by dimming around 2022-01-15T13:00Z. One of these eruptions is also potentially associated with the 2022-01-15T14:00Z CME, which overlaps with this CME in the coronagraphs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-19T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 6.93 ---- 2022-01-16T15:31Z 55.55 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-01-19T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 12.93 20.0 2022-01-17T12:31Z 34.55 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-19T09:00Z 9.93 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2022-01-14T13:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Visible in SW of STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3, moving quickly through the FOV. Associated with a large eruption from AR 12925 (S33W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-14T12:54Z. UPDATE: There appears to be a weak component rotation of two components of magnetic field at around 2022-01-17T14:00Z, preceded by drop in density/temperature. However, according to Lan, there is no sign of a shock and there appears to be no ICME arrival on 2022-01-17.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2022-01-16T14:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-14T17:22Z 45.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Robert Loper (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-16T15:03Z ---- ---- 2022-01-14T17:50Z 45.22 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 7.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2022-01-16T04:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-15T07:00Z 21.55 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-16T23:39Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2022-01-15T07:00Z 40.65 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2022-01-17T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 50.0 2022-01-15T12:52Z 52.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2022-01-16T12:03Z (-7.5h, +11.0h) ---- 62.0 2022-01-15T16:05Z 19.97 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M) Detail
2022-01-16T20:00Z ---- 60.0 2022-01-16T08:44Z 11.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2022-01-16T18:42Z ---- 57.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.6 - 5.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

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