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CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time & Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

No Active CME

Past CMEs:

CME: 2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: The source is a large prominence eruption near S30E25 in SDO imagery, occurring around 2020-08-16T17:01Z; the eruption is observed in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304Ĺ. A B1.2 flare measured by GOES-Primary that starts at 2020-08-16T17:01Z and peaks at 2020-08-16T17:26Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-08-20T03:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- 60.0 2020-08-17T14:55Z 60.08 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-08-20T02:00Z ---- ---- 2020-08-17T15:33Z 58.45 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone Colin Komar (GSFC) Detail
2020-08-19T22:32Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2020-08-17T17:18Z 53.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Colin Komar (GSFC) Detail
2020-08-19T18:30Z ---- 100.0 2020-08-17T20:25Z 46.08 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2020-08-20T05:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 50.0 2020-08-18T08:00Z 45.80 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-08-19T15:54Z ---- ---- 2020-08-18T09:45Z 30.15 Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2020-08-19T20:00Z ---- ---- 2020-08-18T12:37Z 31.38 ---- Other (SIDC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2020-08-19T21:30Z ---- ---- 2020-08-18T15:49Z 29.68 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2020-08-19T22:39Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.58333 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-07-19T09:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-24T00:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-07-24T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 11.70 30.0 2020-07-20T12:40Z 83.63 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-07-23T13:02Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -11.27 20.0 2020-07-21T08:00Z 64.30 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-07-24T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.30 ---- 2020-07-21T15:14Z 57.07 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Michelangelo Romano (GSFC) Detail
2020-07-24T00:20Z 0.03 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-07-09T01:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-13T20:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: This event is associated with a filament eruption visible between S30E05 and S30W25 in SDO AIA 193 imagery starting around 2020-07-08T20:32Z. Opening field lines corresponding to this event can also be seen on the SW limb of STEREO A EUVI 195 starting at 2020-07-08T09:05Z. The CME appears as a gradual brightening in the western streamer of STEREO A COR2 and later as a partial halo (southward) in SOHO LASCO C2/C3.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-07-14T14:00Z 17.42 ---- 2020-07-10T05:30Z 87.08 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2020-07-13T21:21Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.77 ---- 2020-07-10T08:30Z 84.08 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-07-14T04:47Z 8.20 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2020-07-14T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 6.42 ---- 2020-07-15T16:17Z -43.70 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Colin Komar (GSFC) Detail

CME: 2020-07-05T17:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-09T15:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: The start time of the CME was changed as seen on SOHO LASCO. There were two CMEs, an earlier one headed towards STA that overlaps with this event that was seen around 2020-07-05T14:24Z. CME arrival date/time is not certain as there are two potential flux ropes. From Lan Jian “First CME short and weak, arrived at around 20:45 UT on July 8. Another flux rope seen in the second half day of July 9, with slightly stronger peak magnetic field strength around 15:50UT.”
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-07-09T13:00Z -2.83 ---- 2020-07-07T04:00Z 59.83 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2020-07-09T13:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.22 ---- 2020-07-07T08:00Z 55.83 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-07-09T10:52Z -4.97 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2020-07-09T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -9.83 ---- 2020-07-15T16:12Z -144.37 Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Colin Komar (GSFC) Detail

CME: 2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-05-29T22:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Speculative source location is a brightening at the edge of the northern extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A faint ripple is visible in the western streamer in C2/C3 but this was not used for measuring. Shock arrival time description from Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I think it is a flux rope followed by a high speed stream. I can see a magnetic field red-component rotation with polarity south-to-north. The blue y-component is mostly south. The solar wind speed within the structure is increasing, a signature of compression and also consistent with the changes in the red z-magnetic field component at the front of the structure. The structure is followed by an increase in magnetic field, proton temperature and solar wind speed.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-05-30T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.00 ---- 2020-05-26T17:44Z 76.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Eframir Franco (CCMC) Detail
2020-05-30T08:05Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 10.08 10.0 2020-05-28T08:30Z 37.50 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-05-29T02:27Z -19.55 ---- 2020-05-28T08:59Z 37.02 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2020-05-31T04:15Z 30.25 ---- 2020-05-28T09:02Z 36.97 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2020-05-30T03:41Z 5.68 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-04-27T13:54:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: The source is a filament eruption in the north east (N20E40) of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2020-04-27T09:15Z. The CME produced seems to be more deflected to the south as seen on the STA coronagraphs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-05-01T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2020-04-28T11:39Z 78.35 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2020-05-01T16:35Z ---- ---- 2020-04-30T08:00Z 32.58 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-05-02T00:00Z ---- ---- 2020-05-01T12:32Z 11.47 ---- Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2020-05-01T19:31Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-03-02T20:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-06T14:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The in-situ observations exhibit two coherent magnetic structures with monotonic changes in the magnetic field profile. Possibly, they could be the traces of streamer blow outs. Remote sensing observations are required to fully identify and characterize the structures. The first one arrives on march 6, around 14 hrs UT and last for 10 hrs. It is a coherent structure without clear rotation in the magnetic field rotation but low temperature. The second structure displays a magnetic field rotation and low temperature flux rope signatures. It starts around 14 hrs UT and last for 13 hrs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-03-07T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 10.00 ---- 2020-03-02T15:54Z 94.10 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) M Crawford (CCMC) Detail
2020-03-07T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 22.00 20.0 2020-03-03T18:00Z 68.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-03-06T21:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 7.10 20.0 2020-03-03T21:30Z 64.50 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-03-06T12:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) -2.00 ---- 2020-03-04T05:53Z 56.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2020-03-07T15:09Z 25.15 13.9333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2020-03-10T06:43Z (-25.5h, +25.5h) 88.72 1.8 2020-03-04T14:45Z 47.25 ---- ELEvoHI Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) Detail

CME: 2020-02-28T17:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-04T18:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-03-04T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -6.00 20.0 2020-03-03T18:00Z 24.00 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-03-04T06:45Z -11.25 15.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2020-03-04T01:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -16.50 10.0 2020-03-03T20:30Z 21.50 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail

CME: 2020-01-25T18:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-01-29T04:00Z ---- 30.0 2020-01-25T18:00Z 82.00 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -55
Dst min. time: 2020-01-29T17:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2020-01-29T16:52Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 10.0 2020-01-26T20:42Z 68.17 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-01-30T06:00Z ---- 50.0 2020-01-27T00:53Z 77.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-01-29T13:43Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2020-01-29T04:00Z ---- ---- 2020-01-31T17:08Z -61.13 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Kelly French (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-01-14T10:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-01-18T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2020-01-15T17:09Z 60.85 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Anna Chulaki (CCMC) Detail
2020-01-19T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2020-01-16T08:50Z 69.17 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-01-18T15:29Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 20.0 2020-01-17T00:25Z 39.07 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-01-18T17:09Z ---- 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2020-01-06T00:01:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2020-01-09T21:00Z (-9.0h, +6.0h) ---- 40.0 2020-01-07T04:30Z 64.50 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2020-01-09T21:58Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 20.0 2020-01-07T08:30Z 61.47 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2020-01-13T16:22Z (-32.0h, +32.0h) ---- 30.0 2020-01-08T16:56Z 119.43 ---- ELEvoHI Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) Detail
2020-01-10T05:24Z ---- ---- 2020-01-09T05:42Z 23.70 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2020-01-10T22:11Z ---- 30.0 --- --- ---- Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Previous Predictions in 2019

Previous Predictions in 2018

Previous Predictions in 2017

Previous Predictions in 2016

Previous Predictions in 2015

Previous Predictions in 2014

Previous Predictions in 2013

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CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand