CME Scoreboard
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CME Scoreboard
CME arrival time predictions from the research community:
The CME scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time & Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:
Active CMEs:
No Active CME
Past CMEs:
|
CME: 2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-05-29T22:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Speculative source location is a brightening at the edge of the northern extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A faint ripple is visible in the western streamer in C2/C3 but this was not used for measuring. Shock arrival time description from Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I think it is a flux rope followed by a high speed stream. I can see a magnetic field red-component rotation with polarity south-to-north. The blue y-component is mostly south. The solar wind speed within the structure is increasing, a signature of compression and also consistent with the changes in the red z-magnetic field component at the front of the structure. The structure is followed by an increase in magnetic field, proton temperature and solar wind speed.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-05-30T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.00
|
----
|
2020-05-26T17:44Z |
76.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Eframir Franco (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-30T08:05Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.08
|
10.0
|
2020-05-28T08:30Z |
37.50
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-29T02:27Z
|
-19.55
|
----
|
2020-05-28T08:59Z |
37.02
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-31T04:15Z
|
30.25
|
----
|
2020-05-28T09:02Z |
36.97
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-30T03:41Z
|
5.68
|
10.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-04-27T13:54:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is a filament eruption in the north east (N20E40) of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2020-04-27T09:15Z. The CME produced seems to be more deflected to the south as seen on the STA coronagraphs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-05-01T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-04-28T11:39Z |
78.35
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-01T16:35Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-04-30T08:00Z |
32.58
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-02T00:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-05-01T12:32Z |
11.47
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Yaireska Collado (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-01T19:31Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-03-02T20:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-06T14:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The in-situ observations exhibit two coherent magnetic structures with monotonic changes in the magnetic field profile. Possibly, they could be the traces of streamer blow outs. Remote sensing observations are required to fully identify and characterize the structures. The first one arrives on march 6, around 14 hrs UT and last for 10 hrs. It is a coherent structure without clear rotation in the magnetic field rotation but low temperature. The second structure displays a magnetic field rotation and low temperature flux rope signatures. It starts around 14 hrs UT and last for 13 hrs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-03-07T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.00
|
----
|
2020-03-02T15:54Z |
94.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
M Crawford (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-07T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
22.00
|
20.0
|
2020-03-03T18:00Z |
68.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-06T21:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.10
|
20.0
|
2020-03-03T21:30Z |
64.50
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-06T12:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
-2.00
|
----
|
2020-03-04T05:53Z |
56.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-07T15:09Z
|
25.15
|
13.9333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-10T06:43Z
(-25.5h, +25.5h)
|
88.72
|
1.8
|
2020-03-04T14:45Z |
47.25
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-02-28T17:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-04T18:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-03-04T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-6.00
|
20.0
|
2020-03-03T18:00Z |
24.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-04T06:45Z
|
-11.25
|
15.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-04T01:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-16.50
|
10.0
|
2020-03-03T20:30Z |
21.50
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-01-25T18:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-29T04:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-25T18:00Z |
82.00
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -55
Dst min. time: 2020-01-29T17:00Z
|
Anemomilos
|
WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-29T16:52Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
10.0
|
2020-01-26T20:42Z |
68.17
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-30T06:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2020-01-27T00:53Z |
77.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-29T13:43Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-29T04:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-31T17:08Z |
-61.13
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Kelly French (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-01-14T10:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-18T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-15T17:09Z |
60.85
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Anna Chulaki (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-19T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-16T08:50Z |
69.17
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-18T15:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2020-01-17T00:25Z |
39.07
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-18T17:09Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-01-06T00:01:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-09T21:00Z
(-9.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2020-01-07T04:30Z |
64.50
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-09T21:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2020-01-07T08:30Z |
61.47
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-13T16:22Z
(-32.0h, +32.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-08T16:56Z |
119.43
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-10T05:24Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-09T05:42Z |
23.70
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-10T22:11Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
----
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME ScoreBoard