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CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time & Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Click here to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, please subscribe to our mailing list or send an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.

Active CMEs:

No Active CME

Past CMEs:

CME: 2018-09-27T04:54:00-CME-001
This CME did not hit Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: The source is a filament eruption seen in SDO AIA 304 around 09-27T04:00Z around S40E10. CME is very faint and difficult to measure. Start time may not be accurate. Some small disturbances were seen in the SW data, but nothing clear to determine the arrival of the CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2018-09-30T23:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 60.0 2018-09-28T06:00Z 65.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2018-10-02T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2018-09-28T20:34Z 81.43 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Rachel Broemmelsiek (CCMC) Detail
2018-10-01T14:30Z ---- 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-25T06:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -169
Dst min. time: 2018-08-26T07:00Z
CME Note: The CME is associated with a filament eruption occurring around 2018-08-20T18:00Z at N40W05 in SDO 193.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2018-08-25T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.00 ---- 2018-08-21T14:06Z 87.90 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2018-08-24T21:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h) -9.00 90.0 2018-08-21T16:10Z 85.83 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2018-08-24T14:00Z -16.00 ---- 2018-08-21T23:25Z 78.58 Max Kp Range: -- - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2018-08-25T01:08Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -4.87 ---- 2018-08-22T09:00Z 69.00 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2018-08-24T23:59Z (-24.0h, +24.0h) -6.02 80.0 2018-08-22T12:35Z 65.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2018-08-26T00:30Z (-14.4h, +15.0h) 18.50 100.0 2018-08-22T14:02Z 63.97 ---- DBM Mateja Dumbovic (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2018-08-25T02:06Z -3.90 90.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.75
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2018-08-19T07:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-24T05:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: SIDC: In SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images a very narrow (only around 10 degrees angular width) CME is visible from August 19 7:36UT onwards, directed towards the South-West. It is also visible from Stereo A COR2, also narrow and directed to the South-West from this viewpoint. The arrival time for this CME could have been confused with the arrival time of the 2018-08-20T21:24Z CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2018-08-21T23:00Z (-4.0h, +3.0h) -54.83 ---- 2018-08-20T05:45Z 96.08 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASFC) Detail
2018-08-21T23:59Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -53.85 15.0 2018-08-21T13:34Z 64.27 Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2018-08-21T23:29Z -54.35 15.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2018-07-05T04:39:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-07-10T11:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible in STEREO A COR2 on the W limb. It starts as a slowly brightening near the streamer before the CME is clearly visible. For this reason the start time can be anywhere between 02:39 (labelled by SIDC) and 13:09 (labelled by SWPC).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2018-07-10T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -11.42 ---- 2018-07-05T19:05Z 112.33 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Anna Chulaki (CCMC) Detail
2018-07-07T10:00Z -73.42 2.0 2018-07-05T22:36Z 108.82 Dst min. in nT: -41
Dst min. time: 2018-07-07T22:00Z
Other WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2018-07-10T09:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -2.42 5.0 2018-07-06T11:03Z 96.37 Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2018-07-09T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) -17.42 30.0 2018-07-06T18:15Z 89.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2018-07-09T09:00Z (-5.0h, +5.0h) -26.42 ---- 2018-07-07T12:00Z 71.42 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2018-07-09T14:00Z -21.42 ---- 2018-07-07T14:45Z 68.67 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2018-07-07T15:53Z -67.53 ---- 2018-07-09T03:19Z 32.10 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2018-07-10T01:26Z -9.98 ---- 2018-07-09T03:22Z 32.05 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2018-07-09T06:39Z -28.77 12.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2018-03-06T23:54:00-CME-001
This CME did not hit Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source is a filament lift off best seen in SDO AIA 304 from S10E25 at 2018-03-06T16:30Z. Start time is after the data gap from 2018-03-06T19:39Z to 2018-03-06T23:54Z in STA cor2 imagery. It is not visible in SOHO LASCO C2 or C3 imagery.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2018-03-10T14:00Z ---- 10.0 2018-03-07T16:14Z 69.77 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (SWRC) Detail
2018-03-10T14:00Z ---- 10.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2018-03-05T23:39:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-03-09T23:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: First seen in STA Cor2 at 2018-03-05T23:39Z, but this is after a data gap from 19:30Z to 23:30Z so the true start time is uncertain. The source is likely the long-duration filling in of the dim CH region visible in the South of AIA 193, centered around longitude -10, beginning around 18:00 on 2018-03-05. The CME is also visible as a faint partial halo to the SW in C2/C3, but not visible in the difference imaging.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2018-03-09T14:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -9.00 5.0 2018-03-06T15:31Z 79.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Yaireska Collado (GSFC) Detail
2018-03-10T00:00Z 0.50 ---- 2018-03-06T16:45Z 78.75 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone Michael GreklekMcKeon (CCMC) Detail
2018-03-09T10:43Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) -12.78 50.0 2018-03-07T09:00Z 62.50 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2018-03-09T18:30Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) -5.00 ---- 2018-03-07T15:14Z 56.27 ---- DBM Mateja Dumbovic (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2018-03-09T16:00Z (-8.0h, +10.0h) -7.50 86.0 2018-03-07T15:16Z 56.23 ---- Other Mateja Dumbovic (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2018-03-08T15:46Z -31.73 ---- 2018-03-07T18:37Z 52.88 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2018-03-09T09:35Z -13.92 ---- 2018-03-07T18:38Z 52.87 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2018-03-10T08:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h) 8.50 60.0 2018-03-08T01:22Z 46.13 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2018-03-09T14:38Z -8.87 50.25 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2018-02-15T11:59Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 4.35 90.0 2018-02-12T14:27Z 65.18 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2018-02-15T16:30Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 8.87 70.0 2018-02-12T16:30Z 63.13 ---- DBM Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) Detail
2018-02-15T06:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.93 ---- 2018-02-12T16:33Z 63.08 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Mary Aronne (SWRC) Detail
2018-02-14T22:25Z -9.22 ---- 2018-02-12T16:55Z 62.72 ---- SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2018-02-14T09:00Z -22.63 ---- 2018-02-12T19:21Z 60.28 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Leila Mays (GSFC) Detail
2018-02-15T06:24Z (-4.0h, +4.0h) -1.23 ---- 2018-02-13T07:00Z 48.63 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2018-02-16T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 25.37 70.0 2018-02-13T07:04Z 48.57 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (NSSC SEPC) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2018-02-14T18:00Z -13.63 ---- 2018-02-13T09:57Z 45.68 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2018-02-15T14:28Z 6.83 ---- 2018-02-13T10:20Z 45.30 ---- ElEvo Tanja Amerstorfer (SRI) Detail
2018-02-14T05:00Z -26.63 ---- 2018-02-13T11:13Z 44.42 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC) RWC Jeju (KSWC) Detail
2018-02-15T02:18Z -5.33 ---- 2018-02-13T12:10Z 43.47 ---- CAT-PUMA Jiajia Liu (UoS) Detail
2018-02-15T02:16Z (-14.3h, +10.4h) -5.37 81.0 2018-02-13T15:27Z 40.18 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC) Michael GreklekMcKeon (CCMC) Detail
2018-02-15T06:09Z -1.48 77.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.6
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2018-02-16T04:00Z 20.37 ---- 2018-02-15T23:59Z -16.35 Dst min. in nT: -47
Dst min. time: 2018-02-16T16:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail

Previous Predictions in 2017

Previous Predictions in 2016

Previous Predictions in 2015

Previous Predictions in 2014

Previous Predictions in 2013
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CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

Important Disclaimer Notice

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

NASA Official: Dr. Maria Kuznetsova
Curator: Chiu Wiegand