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CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

CME: 2023-05-30T17:12:00-CME-001
CME Note: Faint, slow, loop-like CME seen to the west-northwest in SOHO C2, C3 and appearing slightly brighter in STEREO A COR2 in the same direction. The source is unclear, and thus simulation results are fairly speculative, but measurements indicate some confidence in an Earth-facing source on the Sun between longitudes 20 and 30 degrees. Possibly associated with brightening and dimming seen on the Earth-facing disk early on 2023-05-30 near N00W40, or with a minor eruption near the vicinity of AR3319 with westward deflection. Higher Kp values are possible if a larger particle density/pileup is observed with any arrival at Earth than is depicted in Enlil model output.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-06-04T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-31T13:48Z 85.20 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-06-04T07:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-31T18:32Z 84.47 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-06-04T05:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-05-29T02:12:00-CME-001
CME Note: Seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This is the first of multiple fronts seen in coronagraph imagery, which were caused by several consecutive filament eruptions/a filament erupting in multiple stages on the Earth-facing disk. At about 2023-05-29T01:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 304, the large filament is seen breaking near AR13318 (N25W20 at the time) (no flare had occurred, however) and the first segment begins to lift off.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-06-01T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-29T21:19Z 67.68 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-06-01T17:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-05-25T15:36:00-CME-001
CME Note: Faint CME which appears to be associated with an M1.1-class solar flare and subsequent eruption. The eruption seems to have footpoints centered on the flare located near S25W06 as well as the vicinity of AR3310 (S20W28).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-30T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-25T20:40Z 99.33 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-30T00:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-05-22T14:09:00-CME-001
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the southeast in coronagraph imagery that disappears before leaving the C2 field of view; it is associated with a M1.9-class flare, type II sweep, and erupting loop seen best in GOES 16/18 284 near S40E20.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-25T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 15.0 2023-05-23T12:45Z 55.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-25T20:00Z ---- 15.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-07T19:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-05T15:08Z 52.45 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-07T18:45Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-05T16:16Z 50.48 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-07T16:22Z ---- ---- 2023-05-05T18:00Z 46.37 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-05-07T22:40Z (-6.65h, +9.25h) ---- 91.0 2023-05-05T21:50Z 48.83 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-07T16:00Z ---- ---- 2023-05-06T09:10Z 30.83 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-07T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 60.0 2023-05-06T13:00Z 29.00 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-05-07T20:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 75.0 2023-05-06T13:20Z 31.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-08T00:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-06T22:53Z 25.92 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-07T12:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-06T22:56Z 13.87 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-07T18:49Z ---- 75.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.85714 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001
CME Note: CME associated with an M3.9-class flare from Active Region 3296 seen to the northeast in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a brighter bulk to the southeast and faint, wider shock with matching leading edge extending from the southeast to the northeast. A halo-like feature closely trailing behind this CME seen in COR2 running difference imagery may be associated with the eruption, but this is uncertain. A SOHO data gap exists over the CME propagation in the C2 FOV of view, obscuring analysis.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-07T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-04T13:47Z 69.22 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-06T22:17Z ---- ---- 2023-05-04T19:55Z 50.37 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-05-07T23:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) ---- 60.0 2023-05-05T07:15Z 63.75 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-05-07T03:42Z ---- ---- 2023-05-05T15:48Z 35.90 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-05-07T08:59Z ---- 60.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Past CMEs:

CME: 2023-05-17T16:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption near AR 3309 and 3303 starting around 2023-05-17T15:10Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171 imagery and begin to form around 16:20. Additionally, post eruptive dimming is observed surrounding the eruption starting at 16:30Z. Arrival signature per discussion with the LASSOS team: Likely no iCME embedded in the HSS (the signature on the morning of 05-21 could be an iCME but is more likely the heliospheric plasma sheet embedded in the high speed stream continuing from 05-19.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-21T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2023-05-19T20:02Z 51.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-21T23:30Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-05-11T09:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME West in SOHO coronagraph, possibly associated with the 2.1M-class flare from AR 3294 (S07W38) and with the associated eruption with dimming and EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2023-05-11T08:56Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-15T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-05-11T19:25Z 77.58 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-14T22:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2023-05-13T12:42Z 33.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-14T23:45Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.37
CME Note: Large halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Source is M4.2 flare from AR13296. Large EUV wave and dimming seen across the disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. ARRIVAL SIGNATURES at L1 and STEREO A: -L1: 2023-05-12T05:48Z. Arrival signature is likely the CME shock arrival characterized by an abrupt jump of magnetic field to over 13 nT and of solar wind speed from 480 km/s to 560 km/s accompanied by the jump in ion temperature and density and some rotation of magnetic field components. -STEREO: 2023-05-12T01:0Ã¥0Z. Arrival is signified by a sudden increase in Btotal to 13 nT, accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed to 900 km/s and an increase in ion density. No temperature data is available). The arrival at STEREO A is unexpectedly several hours before the CME arrival at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-11T01:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -28.70 ---- 2023-05-09T20:14Z 57.57 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-12T00:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.22 ---- 2023-05-09T20:15Z 57.55 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-11T13:34Z -16.23 ---- 2023-05-09T21:30Z 56.30 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-05-11T12:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -17.48 ---- 2023-05-09T22:07Z 55.68 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-11T06:00Z -23.80 90.0 2023-05-10T01:59Z 51.82 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2023-05-11T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -9.80 70.0 2023-05-10T13:47Z 40.02 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-11T11:01Z -18.78 ---- 2023-05-10T16:42Z 37.10 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-05-11T15:47Z -14.02 ---- 2023-05-10T16:44Z 37.07 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-05-11T15:02Z (-4.35h, +9.85h) -14.77 100.0 2023-05-10T22:47Z 31.02 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-11T13:44Z -16.07 86.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.4
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2023-05-11T18:00Z -11.80 ---- 2023-05-11T05:43Z 24.08 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail

CME: 2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-09T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.37
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent long duration M1.6 flare from AR 3296 starting around 2023-05-07T22:15Z in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at the time of the eruption with post eruptive dimming and arcades visible starting around 23:45Z in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery. The arrival signature at L1 is characterized by jumps in B_total to >15nT, solar wind speed to >550km/s, temperature >600K, and density >15 N(cm^-3). The CME arrived at STEREO A at 2023-05-09T19:00Z
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-09T17:40Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.43 ---- 2023-05-08T14:00Z 32.10 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-10T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 16.90 95.0 2023-05-08T14:30Z 31.60 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-05-09T17:32Z (-2.5h, +2.75h) -4.57 100.0 2023-05-08T18:04Z 28.03 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-09T08:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.45 ---- 2023-05-08T20:17Z 25.82 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-10T07:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.90 ---- 2023-05-08T20:19Z 25.78 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-10T09:00Z 10.90 90.0 2023-05-09T00:30Z 21.60 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2023-05-10T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 19.90 75.0 2023-05-09T08:36Z 13.50 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-10T01:29Z 3.38 ---- 2023-05-09T15:16Z 6.83 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-05-09T23:07Z 1.02 ---- 2023-05-09T15:18Z 6.80 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-05-10T02:23Z 4.28 90.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.2 - 7.2
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-30T01:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Bright CME visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in SWPC_CAT. The source eruption starts around 2023-04-30T19:00Z in the vicinity of AR 3289 (approximately N20E25) and AR 3292 (approximately N15E30) and can be best seen as opening field lines, faint EUV wave, and some post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines can also be seen on the limb in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in the NE of STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Waiting for feedback from LASSOS team.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-03T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-30T17:49Z 74.18 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-03T20:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-29T02:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Faint CME with what appears to be multiple fronts seen to the S/SW in STEREO A COR2 imagery and more generally to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 & C3 imagery. There is a fairly wide source region with associated brightening and dimming ranging from -20 to -40 degrees latitude and -10 to +30 degrees longitude starting around 01:30Z. This eruption encompasses AR13288. It is best seen in SDO/AIA 193, 304, and 211 as well as STEREO A EUVI 195. Waiting for feedback from LASSOS team.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-05-01T23:13Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2023-04-29T09:26Z 61.78 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-02T03:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-29T17:51Z 58.10 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-02T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-29T19:14Z 74.77 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-05-02T02:41Z (-12.0h, +9.5h) ---- 97.0 2023-04-29T21:50Z 52.85 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-05-01T22:54Z ---- ---- 2023-04-29T22:34Z 48.33 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-05-02T08:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-30T14:10Z 42.53 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-02T02:45Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-30T14:11Z 36.57 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-05-01T21:47Z ---- ---- 2023-04-30T15:27Z 30.33 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-05-01T09:12Z ---- ---- 2023-04-30T15:32Z 17.67 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-05-02T02:21Z ---- 68.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-27T02:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME NE in SOHO (covered by nighttime data gap in STEREO). Source: large filament eruption with extensive dimming (N10E55) SW of AR 3289 starting ~01:58Z seen in AIA 304, 194 and EUVI A 195 after the night time data gap.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-30T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-27T15:45Z 56.25 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-29T16:15Z (-2.5h, +3.5h) ---- 9.0 2023-04-27T20:02Z 44.22 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-29T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 25.0 2023-04-28T13:32Z 23.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-29T17:45Z ---- 17.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered around S35W25 starting around 2023-04-24T13:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An EUV wave is visible at this time in SDO AIA 193, with post eruptive loops forming around 14:00Z. Post eruptive dimming is also visible shortly following the eruption. In review by LASSOS team
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-27T07:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-24T17:39Z 62.15 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-27T10:03Z ---- ---- 2023-04-24T20:15Z 61.80 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-04-27T06:19Z (-4.7h, +5.2h) ---- 87.0 2023-04-24T20:54Z 57.42 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-27T19:36Z ---- ---- 2023-04-25T05:27Z 62.15 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-04-26T22:11Z ---- ---- 2023-04-25T05:30Z 40.68 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-04-27T05:00Z (-12.0h, +9.0h) ---- 60.0 2023-04-25T06:00Z 47.00 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-04-27T19:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-25T10:42Z 56.37 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-04-27T14:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-25T10:44Z 51.40 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-04-27T10:01Z ---- 73.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T17:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-23T19:05Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.08 ---- 2023-04-21T20:50Z 44.17 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-23T20:35Z 3.58 ---- 2023-04-21T22:35Z 42.42 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-04-23T19:36Z (-8.6h, +16.1h) 2.60 100.0 2023-04-21T23:44Z 41.27 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-24T02:00Z 9.00 80.0 2023-04-22T00:58Z 40.03 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-04-24T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 12.00 ---- 2023-04-22T12:30Z 28.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.5
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-24T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 10.00 99.0 2023-04-22T14:24Z 26.60 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-24T00:02Z 7.03 92.25 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.28571 - 7.64286
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2023-04-24T03:00Z 10.00 90.0 2023-04-23T13:16Z 3.73 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial northern halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 (very faintly in C3) and covered fully by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. One possible source is the long filament (or two parallel filaments) erupting between ARs 3277, 3273 and 3280 and stretching approximately from N30W20 to S09W55 as seen in AIA 193/304, EUVI A 195. Eruption starts at ~2023-04-15T22:30Z and is seen as dimming along the filament channel centered at ~N15W35 and more central dimming at N20W20. There are also post-eruptive arcades centered at N25W30.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-20T10:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-16T16:44Z 90.20 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-19T22:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2023-04-17T12:57Z 57.55 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-20T13:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- 60.0 2023-04-17T16:55Z 68.08 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-04-20T04:33Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-17T17:26Z 59.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-20T06:44Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.75
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-15T12:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME visible in the N/NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the N/NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen lifting off in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-04-15T10:00Z. Dimming is also observed in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-19T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-15T19:23Z 88.62 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-19T12:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-09T09:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large bright CME seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. The source appears to be associated with a filament eruption (best seen in SDO/AIA 304) followed by a large area of dimming (best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 211) and post-eruptive arcade (SDO/AIA 171). The eruption looks like it could stretch across multiple longitudes (~50 to 90+).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-13T08:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) ---- 50.0 2023-04-09T21:43Z 82.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-13T08:00Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-04-01T00:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and very faintly in C3, not seen in STEREO A COR2 b/c of a nighttime data gap. Source is likely a faint eruption of a filament stretching from AR 3267 near the STA-facing disk center to ~E55N20 and very roughly centered around S5E45, seen very faintly in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 starting 2023-03-31T23:25Z .
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-03T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-04-02T00:54Z 25.10 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-03T02:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-03-30T21:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Minor, faint, but wide eruption first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-30T21:12Z in the southwest, visible in both the SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The source appears to be associated with a minor eruption from AR3262 located near S19W40 and dimming seen best in SDO 193, though the CME's leading edge quickly disappears before exiting the field of view, and the CME itself is too diffuse to reliably pair images between SOHO and STEREO A well. As such, there is significant uncertainty in the width and velocity parameters associated with the measurements.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-04-04T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-03-31T13:26Z 92.57 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-03T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-03-31T16:32Z 59.47 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-04-03T19:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright, wide and asymmetrical shape CME seen to the NE in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The eruption is characterized by an erupting sigmoid/S-shaped structure centered around N27E20, though dimming and an EUV wave signature is limited to longitudes closer to 30-50 degrees east. On arrival signature from Tarik Salman, LASSOS: background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s)-a possible reason for this ICME not to have an associated shock. The start of the magnetic flux rope likely coincides with the enhancement in the total field and drop in density and the end of it is around 2023-04-24T09Z (based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent)
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-03-23T17:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.57 ---- 2023-03-20T17:26Z 63.73 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-23T11:20Z (-5.0h, +7.0h) 2.17 87.0 2023-03-20T17:45Z 63.42 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-23T04:47Z -4.38 ---- 2023-03-20T19:20Z 61.83 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-03-23T11:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 1.83 70.0 2023-03-21T02:15Z 54.92 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-03-23T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -1.17 20.0 2023-03-21T15:43Z 41.45 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-23T06:29Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.68 ---- 2023-03-22T10:41Z 22.48 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-03-23T10:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 1.42 ---- 2023-03-22T10:42Z 22.47 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-03-23T11:20Z (-5.1h, +7.1h) 2.17 87.0 2023-03-22T13:06Z 20.07 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-23T10:09Z 0.98 66.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-03-20T02:41:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Faint, wide CME seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery during a STEREO A data gap and occurring during a subsequent STEREO campaign with limited imagery. Likely associated with a broad area of coronal restructuring, coronal dimming, destabilization, and filament eruptions seen in SDO 193 and 304 starting around 2023-03-20T01:53Z bounded by an area created by S10 to S30, W05 to W30. Arrival time (and arrival itself) are tentative as the arrival signature is under review as it may be associated with CME 2023-03-20T14:42Z instead or with combined front of these two CMEs. Waiting for assessment by LASSOS team.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-03-23T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.17 ---- 2023-03-20T13:28Z 67.70 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-23T01:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h) -8.17 40.0 2023-03-21T03:45Z 53.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-03-23T02:00Z -7.17 40.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-03-17T10:58:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-20T22:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME overlaps the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-17T10:30Z to the SW. There are currently ongoing campaigns impacting the amount of available imagery for the SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting around 2023-03-17T08:50Z with full lift off by 2023-03-17T12:17Z. The filament has it's largest mass centered around S40W30, but stretches between the longitudes of 0 degrees to 40 degrees and the latitudes of -20 degrees to -50 degrees. Possible minor arrival signature includes gradual increase of total magnetic field to over 11 nT with rotation of at least two magnetic field components, possibly indicating a CME arrival/glancing blow. It is likely embedded in a HSS. Waiting for assessment from LASSOS team.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-03-21T04:00Z 5.38 ---- 2023-03-17T21:41Z 72.93 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-21T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 5.38 15.0 2023-03-20T11:21Z 11.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-21T04:00Z 5.38 15.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-03-16T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 28.20 ---- 2023-03-13T16:54Z 34.90 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-16T00:55Z 21.12 ---- 2023-03-13T17:05Z 34.72 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-03-15T12:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 8.20 30.0 2023-03-13T22:15Z 29.55 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-03-15T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 8.20 50.0 2023-03-14T01:05Z 26.72 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -100
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2023-03-15T22:00Z 18.20 60.0 2023-03-14T01:39Z 26.15 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2023-03-16T02:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 22.63 ---- 2023-03-14T11:04Z 16.73 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-03-16T06:38Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 26.83 ---- 2023-03-14T11:06Z 16.70 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-03-16T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 22.20 30.0 2023-03-14T11:53Z 15.92 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-15T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 19.20 20.0 2023-03-16T15:30Z -35.70 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-15T23:13Z 19.42 38.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.14286 - 5.28571
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME going South in SOHO LASCO and SSW in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a gradual eruption of complex, mostly longitudinally oriented filament centered approximately around ~S25E20 (filament seems to extend from at least S5 to S50) and is seen starting to erupt in AIA 304 and 193 around 2023-03-12T18:30Z. Possible arrival is marked by an increase in B_total from 8 nT to 22.5 nT, reaching a maximum of 26 nT at 2023-03-15T05:02Z. Accompanied by an increase in speed from approximately 420 km/s to 550 km/s, an increase in density, and increase in temperature. This arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-13T10:53Z CME (possibly more less likely due to the earlier observed arrival at STEREO A). LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-03-15T12:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.78 ---- 2023-03-13T15:44Z 36.07 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-15T17:10Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 13.37 ---- 2023-03-13T17:02Z 34.77 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-15T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) 14.20 30.0 2023-03-13T22:10Z 29.63 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-03-15T13:00Z 9.20 60.0 2023-03-14T01:26Z 26.37 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2023-03-15T08:55Z (-9.5h, +7.0h) 5.12 70.0 2023-03-14T02:59Z 24.82 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-15T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 19.20 20.0 2023-03-14T11:57Z 15.85 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-15T15:26Z 11.63 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T03:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide CME visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption stretching from S25W30 to N05W60 with liftoff starting around 2023-03-10T16:00Z. Source signature includes an EUV wave and dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery. Possible arrival signature: Weak shock characterized by rise in magnetic field strength from 8.5 nT to 13 nT along with jump in wind speed from ~315 km/s to near 390 km/s with simultaneous pileup and increase in temperature. LASSOS team: a possible weak glancing blow from a CME with a shock-like structure but no magnetic obstacle.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-03-14T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 2.03 ---- 2023-03-10T20:48Z 79.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-14T10:00Z 6.03 ---- 2023-03-10T23:26Z 76.53 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2023-03-15T00:00Z 20.03 ---- 2023-03-11T07:30Z 68.47 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-14T08:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.73 ---- 2023-03-11T13:49Z 62.15 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-14T01:06Z (-7.0h, +11.0h) -2.87 37.0 2023-03-11T17:34Z 58.40 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-14T09:57Z 5.98 37.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 4.25
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-28T09:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Very faint CME in the NW in both coronagraphs first seen after the end of the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. The start is currently covered by the data gap in SOHO LASCO but it is also faintly seen in C3 after this gap. One possible (front-sided) source could be a relatively minor eruption seen after 2023-02-28T06:19Z in AIA 304, 171, 193. In SDO AIA 304 there is a bright flare, then dark material (possibly ejecta). Brightening then dimming of area seen in GOES SUVI 284. It could be associated with a C2.5 class flare from AR 3234 at the time (N20W30). However, this faint event could also be back sided (no coronal signatures found for this). Arrival signature is still under analysis.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-03-03T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-28T19:09Z 60.85 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-03-03T08:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-28T04:44Z 18.48 ---- 2023-02-25T22:25Z 35.83 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-02-28T03:21Z 17.10 ---- 2023-02-26T03:14Z 31.02 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-02-28T05:45Z 19.50 ---- 2023-02-26T03:16Z 30.98 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-02-27T20:00Z 9.75 ---- 2023-02-26T04:00Z 30.25 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-27T20:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h) 9.75 80.0 2023-02-26T05:55Z 28.33 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-02-27T20:00Z 9.75 ---- 2023-02-26T07:00Z 27.25 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2023-02-27T08:12Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.05 ---- 2023-02-26T12:34Z 21.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-28T04:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 18.33 ---- 2023-02-26T12:36Z 21.65 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-27T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 7.75 70.0 2023-02-26T12:54Z 21.35 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-27T21:58Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 11.72 ---- 2023-02-26T15:14Z 19.02 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-27T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 12.75 ---- 2023-02-26T15:45Z 18.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-27T18:10Z (-7.6h, +6.7h) 7.92 79.0 2023-02-26T21:23Z 12.87 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 8.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-28T00:00Z 13.75 ---- 2023-02-27T00:43Z 9.53 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2023-02-27T22:08Z 11.88 76.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.375 - 6.875
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-26T06:27Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -12.27 ---- 2023-02-24T22:57Z 43.77 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-27T03:57Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 9.23 ---- 2023-02-24T22:58Z 43.75 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-26T18:30Z -0.22 ---- 2023-02-24T23:35Z 43.13 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-02-26T13:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.95 ---- 2023-02-24T23:50Z 42.88 Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 9.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-26T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h) -0.72 60.0 2023-02-25T04:14Z 38.48 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-02-26T23:38Z 4.92 ---- 2023-02-25T04:22Z 38.35 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-02-26T22:41Z 3.97 ---- 2023-02-25T04:24Z 38.32 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2023-02-26T14:00Z -4.72 60.0 2023-02-25T05:19Z 37.40 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2023-02-27T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 28.28 70.0 2023-02-25T13:47Z 28.93 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-26T14:03Z (-7.583h, +7.4h) -4.67 100.0 2023-02-25T21:19Z 21.40 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-26T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 4.28 70.0 2023-02-26T12:56Z 5.78 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-26T15:20Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.38 ---- 2023-02-26T14:45Z 3.97 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-26T20:21Z 1.63 72.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.25 - 7.125
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-22T14:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption which stretches across the NW quadrant and lifts off around 2023-02-22T13:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 and 304 imagery. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-25T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-22T20:25Z 73.58 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-25T22:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-21T02:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-24T12:08Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. Potential source eruption starts around 2023-02-21T00:00Z and is a filament eruption characterized by movement/lift-off in SDO AIA 304, dimming in SDO AIA 193, post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171/193. Also visible in the NW of STEREO A EUVI 195. This CME may deflect towards the south in the field of view. Arrival signature discussed by Tarik Salman (LASSOS): Possible ICME encounter starting around 2023-02-24T12:08UT. This coincides with the start of a coherent period of field components and decreasing proton density. The total magnetic field is not significantly elevated over the background. The field components have constant profiles for extended periods which can be an indication of a possible glancing blow. This ICME is also observed to be expanding at L1. A possible end of this ICME is around 2023-02-25T07:26UT.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-24T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 9.87 ---- 2023-02-21T18:31Z 65.62 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-24T07:41Z (-5.25h, +5.25h) -4.45 16.67 2023-02-22T02:09Z 57.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-24T14:50Z 2.70 16.67 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-19T14:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -19.87 ---- 2023-02-18T01:28Z 56.40 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2023-02-20T09:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h) -0.87 50.0 2023-02-18T10:00Z 47.87 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-02-20T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -8.87 50.0 2023-02-18T12:37Z 45.25 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-19T10:15Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -23.62 ---- 2023-02-18T17:12Z 40.67 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-19T17:30Z -16.37 ---- 2023-02-18T17:20Z 40.53 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-02-20T10:30Z 0.63 ---- 2023-02-18T19:49Z 38.05 Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-19T10:14Z (-4.2h, +9.3h) -23.63 100.0 2023-02-19T02:15Z 31.62 Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 9.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-20T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.13 ---- 2023-02-19T15:00Z 18.87 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-20T02:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.93 ---- 2023-02-19T18:41Z 15.18 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-19T23:16Z -10.60 66.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.71429 - 6.5
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-16T10:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a fairly flat front. It moves very quickly through the COR2A field of view. The source of this CME is a filament eruption from AR13216 starting around 2023-02-16T10:10Z. The eruption is most notably seen in SDO/AIA 304, 193, 171, 211, and 131 as well as STEREO A EUVI 195. A post-eruptive arcade follows the eruption as well as notable brightening around the region during this eruption.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-18T23:40Z ---- ---- 2023-02-16T19:40Z 52.00 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-02-18T23:40Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-17T15:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-15T16:37Z 47.23 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-17T21:00Z ---- ---- 2023-02-15T17:46Z 51.23 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-17T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 70.0 2023-02-15T18:52Z 47.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-02-17T20:32Z ---- ---- 2023-02-15T21:00Z 47.53 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-02-17T15:40Z (-3.85h, +4.967h) ---- 100.0 2023-02-15T23:57Z 39.72 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-17T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 70.0 2023-02-16T12:26Z 34.57 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-18T02:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-16T13:58Z 36.27 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-18T00:18Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-16T13:59Z 34.32 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-17T20:34Z ---- 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.2
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T17:02Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.33
CME Note: The CME visible N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. There is a more clear bulk portion that shows filamentary structures within it and then a more faint partial halo seen more clearly in difference imagery. The source is a filament eruption from the region NE of AR13216, there is also subsequent brightening, potential flaring from AR13216 during this eruption. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: Arrival is marked by the enhancement of the B field over the background, accompanied by a drop in proton density and the start of a low-density period. Temperature data seems to be sensitive. A significant data gap makes it difficult to analyze the nature of field rotations. However, the rotations might not be significant due to a possible flank crossing. Due to that, at L1, the flux rope is possibly not encountered.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-13T11:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.93 ---- 2023-02-11T17:20Z 47.70 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-13T02:32Z -14.50 ---- 2023-02-11T20:00Z 45.03 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-02-14T01:00Z (-12.0h, +9.0h) 7.97 40.0 2023-02-12T06:45Z 34.28 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-02-12T12:31Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -28.52 ---- 2023-02-12T07:00Z 34.03 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-13T12:03Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.98 ---- 2023-02-12T07:05Z 33.95 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-02-13T16:10Z (-6.8h, +4.8h) -0.87 58.0 2023-02-13T23:10Z -6.13 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-13T09:13Z -7.82 49.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 6.75
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-10T12:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption around S20W35 that lifts off starting around 2023-02-10T08:00Z. Data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2023-02-10T11:09Z to 2023-02-10T15:23Z. This event might have been overtakend by the 2023-02-11T11:12Z CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-14T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-10T20:37Z 91.38 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-14T16:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-08T17:06:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Very faint full halo CME seen best in SOHO C3 running difference imagery from 2023-02-08T17:00Z to 19:00Z and as northern and southern lobes in C3 white light imagery and NW/SW lobes in STEREO A COR2A imagery. May possibly be associated with an M1.6-class solar flare and subsequent eruption from AR3213 with dimming seen in SDO 193 and GOES-16 284 starting around 16:09Z. This analysis is fairly speculative.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-11T19:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-09T17:48Z 49.33 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-11T18:48Z ---- ---- 2023-02-09T20:00Z 46.80 ---- SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-02-11T18:58Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-07T15:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent C3.7 flare from AR 3213 (N29E06) seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A 195 and 304 imagery starting around 2023-02-07T12:30Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-10T15:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-07T20:56Z 66.57 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-10T15:30Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-03T13:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Secondary eruption closely following behind CME: 2023-02-03T10:36Z seen to the west in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A coronagraphs. There are no secondary eruptions seen on the Earth facing-disk, but preliminary measurements suggest it too is associated with a broad area of long-lasting dimming seen in the western hemisphere as evidenced by GOES-16 284 and SDO 193.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-06T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-03T19:43Z 70.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-06T18:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-02-03T10:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the west in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. Appears to be associated with a broad area of dimming on the western portion of the Earth-facing disk from the equator up to about 25 degrees north as seen in GOES 284 imagery starting around 08:49Z with evidence of a minor filament eruption in the northern hemisphere, though moving field lines off the northwest limb in SDO 171 suggest possible farsidedness.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-02-06T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-03T17:07Z 59.88 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-06T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-02-03T19:43Z 70.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-07T12:48Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2023-02-05T09:51Z 50.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2023-02-06T19:56Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T02:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: CME directed mainly south in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 imagery which is embedded within CME: 2023-01-20T13:36Z. The source is a C5.3-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3190 located near S15W13 seen in SDO 193/304/171 with brightening at the source and opening field line movement followed by a broad area of dimming to the south, east, and west. Magnetic field discontinuity indicates arrival of the interplanetary shock near 2023-01-23T02:59Z with simultaneous rapid density and velocity increases.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-23T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 15.02 ---- 2023-01-20T19:06Z 55.88 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-23T10:36Z (-8.6h, +10.1h) 7.62 87.0 2023-01-20T21:22Z 53.62 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-23T18:18Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 15.32 20.0 2023-01-23T12:24Z -9.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 Other (SIDC) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-23T15:38Z 12.65 53.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 4.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-20T13:38:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright, wide CME with filamentary structure seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption whose filament at 2023-01-20T11:00Z was stretched from S42W25 northwest to about S30W70 (center point approximately S35W52). The eruption and post eruptive brightening is seen best in SDO 304 but also in SDO 193/171/211 occurring near 13:00Z. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, though its arrival is possibly associated with this CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-23T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-20T17:28Z 77.53 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-23T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-20T19:06Z 70.90 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-23T01:58Z ---- ---- 2023-01-20T19:20Z 54.63 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-01-23T00:48Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-20T19:40Z 53.13 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-01-23T07:45Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-20T19:43Z 60.03 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-01-24T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-20T23:24Z 73.60 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2023-01-23T12:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) ---- 20.0 2023-01-21T13:29Z 46.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-01-23T12:38Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 4.6
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Super faint CME (best seen in difference imagery) E in C2/C3 and COR2A. Its source is likely the relatively minor eruption associated with M class flare from AR 3196 (N12E38) peaking at 2023-01-19T10:12Z. Eruption is seen in AIA 304 starting around 2023-01-19T10:20Z and is directed mostly southward (explaining why the CME might be deflected to the south). Eruption is also seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 as dimming (and possibly a EUV wave), with dimming mostly to the SE of the AR. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, but could be a combined arrival of two or more CMEs, including this one.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-22T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-19T19:51Z 69.15 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-22T11:15Z (-8.117h, +7.35h) ---- 79.0 2023-01-20T17:15Z 42.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-23T14:00Z (-24.0h, +8.0h) ---- 20.0 2023-01-21T13:29Z 48.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-01-22T22:05Z ---- 49.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 4.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY]: Potential CME arrival signature is being discussed with LASSOS team
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-17T03:21Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-15T17:03Z 34.30 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-01-17T17:44Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-15T17:06Z 48.63 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2023-01-17T10:34Z ---- ---- 2023-01-15T21:20Z 37.23 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2023-01-18T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 25.0 2023-01-16T00:00Z 52.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2023-01-17T14:54Z ---- 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME is visible as a partial halo to the W/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M4.6 flare from AR 3182 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-14T20:35Z. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 at 20:50Z and post eruptive loops start to form in SDO AIA 193 around 22:30Z. Eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Potential CME arrival signature is being discussed with LASSOS team
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-19T03:00Z ---- ---- 2023-01-15T13:30Z 85.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-18T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-15T16:07Z 77.88 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-19T07:00Z (-14.0h, +14.0h) ---- 50.0 2023-01-15T18:24Z 84.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-19T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 40.0 2023-01-16T00:20Z 89.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2023-01-19T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 10.0 2023-01-16T00:20Z 94.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-18T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 80.0 2023-01-16T18:30Z 50.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2023-01-19T07:40Z ---- 45.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 4.66667
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-12T02:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-14T21:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint CME with an interesting mushroom shape - or likely two or even three very close successive CMEs NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely a gradual eruption(s) in and NW of AR 3185 (N20W28) seen starting around 2023-01-12T01:00Z as seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 with post-eruptive arcades near the AR and in the location NE of the AR. Arrival is likely associated with the interplanetary shock observed at L1 on 2023-01-14T21:50Z. This signature was characterized by an increase in Btotal to 11nT and solar wind speeds up to ~500 km/s. It was also accompanied by slight increases in density and temperature. Per advice from the LASSOS team, this arrival is likely a glancing blow due to the lack of a clear rotation in magnetic field components/flux rope signature.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-15T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 12.17 ---- 2023-01-12T18:45Z 51.08 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-15T10:00Z 12.17 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-11T17:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This is a large, bright and wide CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The likely source is seen as clear moving/opening field lines beyond the SE limb in STEREO EUVI A 195 after 2023-01-11T16:35Z, followed by high rising post-eruptive arcades on the limb in EUVI A 195 an hour later. (Note: There also was an eruption in the SE on the Earth-facing disk seen in AIA 304 starting 2023-01-11T20:45Z (with a significant-area dimming south of the AR 3184(S13E41) seen in AIA 193) but this eruption was several hours later than the start of the CME and thus likely unrelated to it). CME was most likely backsided. This arrival is still being analyzed.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-16T05:00Z ---- 30.0 2023-01-12T12:21Z 88.65 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-16T05:00Z ---- 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-11T09:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It overlaps the 2023-01-11T08:48Z CME. The source of this CME appears to be the M3.1 flare from AR13186. There is a simultaneous filament eruption seen beyond the NE limb that appears to be associated with the 2023-01-11T08:48Z CME. This CME was a candidate for the interplanetary shock observed at L1 on 2023-01-14T21:50Z, but per advice from the LASSOS team, it appeared the CME measured too fast to be responsible for the arrival signature (which did not have a dramatic increase in solar wind speeds).
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-14T13:00Z ---- ---- 2023-01-12T08:00Z 53.00 Max Kp Range: -- - 3.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-14T13:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: -- - 3.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2023-01-08T05:00:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Possible source: a large area eruption centered around ~S40E30 to the S or SW of AR 3182 (S17E44), seen slowly developing as a complex shape dimming (or two nearby areas of dimming) in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2023-01-08T03:30Z and happening soon after multiple middle and upper C-class flares from AR 3182 earlier in the morning.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2023-01-12T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2023-01-08T18:03Z 83.95 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 2.0
 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2023-01-12T06:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 2.0
 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

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