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CCMC CME Scoreboard
CME arrival time predictions from the research community:
The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
- submit their forecast in real-time
- quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
- compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
- Anyone can view prediction tables
- Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
- Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
- Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
- To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
- Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
- Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
- To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:
Active CMEs:
|
CME: 2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. Brightening and broad area of dimming starts at 2023-12-01T21:15Z in SDO AIA 193, 171. Rising/opening field lines as well as ejecta off the SW limb visible in SDO AIA 171 around 21:51Z. Post-eruptive arcades visible at 23:24Z in SDO AIA 171 and 304 imagery. Associated with an M1.0 flare from AR 13500.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-12-05T04:20Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2023-12-02T13:51Z |
62.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-04T17:17Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-12-02T19:31Z |
45.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-04T18:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-12-03T07:10Z |
34.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-04T15:36Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-12-03T12:00Z |
27.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-04T20:14Z
|
----
|
46.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-04T22:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-12-04T01:08Z |
20.87
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Wide S/SW filament eruption seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is filament eruption spanning from S30W10 to S10W40. Liftoff seen starting at 2023-11-27T05:20Z in SDO AIA 304. Filamentary material seen leaving the surface, and post-eruptive brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 imagery. Moving field lines off the SW limb seen in SDO AIA 171 at 05:45Z. Dimming and ejecta seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 05:30Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-12-01T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
35.0
|
2023-11-27T13:14Z |
86.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-27T16:36Z |
65.40
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T05:54Z
(-10.14h, +11.83h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-28T01:50Z |
52.07
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T06:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2023-11-28T04:05Z |
49.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-29T21:47Z
(-11.0h, +14.0h)
|
----
|
100.0
|
2023-11-28T06:48Z |
38.98
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T08:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2023-11-28T14:10Z |
41.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T13:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-28T22:04Z |
38.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T15:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-11-29T01:16Z |
37.73
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T12:05Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-29T01:39Z |
34.43
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T06:23Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-29T01:41Z |
28.70
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-29T19:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-29T03:11Z |
15.82
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T08:49Z
|
----
|
61.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.875 - 4.875
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Southern directed CME as seen in LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Partial halo. Source is a faint and broad area of dimming spanning from about E20-W30 (near AR3489 to AR3498) starting at about 2023-11-22T20:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery. There was a C4.1-class flare from AR 3489 (S15E07) with peak time 2023-11-22T19:02Z associated with this event.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-26T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
80.0
|
2023-11-22T06:30Z |
89.50
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-25T17:01Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-23T18:20Z |
46.68
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-25T18:13Z
(-8.75h, +10.467h)
|
----
|
100.0
|
2023-11-24T20:28Z |
21.75
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-25T19:44Z
|
----
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-22T06:30:00-CME-001
|
|
CME Note: Large filament eruption from SE disc around 22/0630 UTC
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-25T04:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-11-24T06:30Z |
21.50
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-25T04:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
Past CMEs:
|
CME: 2023-11-28T20:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T08:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 after a data gap from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. Overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:24Z in the coronagraphs, and is a separate, measurable CME occurring in close succession from the same active region. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z associated with an M3.4 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or an M9.8 class flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. Eruption is also visible in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 28nT, and an increase in speed from 373 km/s at 2023-12-01T08:49Z to 560 km/s at 09:20Z. Subsequent increases in density and temperature were observed.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-12-01T06:45Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.05
|
----
|
2023-11-29T01:41Z |
55.12
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T09:00Z
|
0.20
|
----
|
2023-11-29T03:11Z |
53.62
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T11:00Z
(-12.0h, +6.0h)
|
2.20
|
90.0
|
2023-11-29T06:13Z |
50.58
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T02:00Z
|
-6.80
|
80.0
|
2023-11-29T08:12Z |
48.60
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T06:19Z
(-9.35h, +6.13h)
|
-2.48
|
----
|
2023-11-29T10:44Z |
46.07
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T09:39Z
(-7.06h, +5.04h)
|
-23.15
|
----
|
2023-11-29T10:56Z |
45.87
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T10:36Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.80
|
----
|
2023-11-29T12:36Z |
44.20
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T15:49Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.02
|
----
|
2023-11-29T12:38Z |
44.17
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T17:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
8.20
|
90.0
|
2023-11-29T13:16Z |
43.53
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T05:46Z
|
-3.03
|
----
|
2023-11-30T00:16Z |
32.53
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T07:33Z
(-14.3h, +14.3h)
|
-1.25
|
----
|
2023-11-30T15:13Z |
17.58
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T07:02Z
|
-1.77
|
86.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 7.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-28T20:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-01T08:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, with a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2023-11-28T18:53Z-23:53Z. The source is an eruption from AR 3500 (S16W03) starting around 2023-11-28T19:00Z with subsequent M3.4 flare peaking at 2023-11-28T19:32Z and/or M9.8 flare peaking at 19:50Z. Flare, EUV wave, dimming, and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 193, flare, opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and flare and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 94. The CME overlaps with CME: 2023-11-28T20:48Z in the coronagraphs and may be considered a separate, measurable event from a portion of the complex eruption that is directed towards the west but could alternatively be the shock from a single CME event. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 28nT, an increase in speed from 373 km/s to 560 km/s at 2023-12-0109:20Z, and subsequent increases in density and temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-12-01T06:45Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.05
|
----
|
2023-11-29T01:41Z |
55.12
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-12-01T06:45Z
|
-2.05
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T23:29Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME centered to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is a filament eruption with liftoff starting around 2023-11-27T23:00Z in SDO AIA 304. The eruption may also be associated with a C5.5 flare from AR 3503 (approx. N15E30). The source signature is also visible as an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines in SDO AIA 171, and brightening with post-eruptive loops in SDO AIA 94. Post-eruptive loops are visible following a data gap in the NE quadrant in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME with the 2023-11-27T20:12Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-30T22:45Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-0.73
|
50.0
|
2023-11-28T19:44Z |
51.75
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T13:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-10.48
|
----
|
2023-11-28T22:04Z |
49.42
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T04:36Z
(-5.56h, +7.89h)
|
-18.88
|
----
|
2023-11-28T23:23Z |
48.10
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T21:00Z
|
-2.48
|
----
|
2023-11-29T03:11Z |
44.30
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-0.48
|
30.0
|
2023-11-30T00:00Z |
23.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T16:52Z
|
-6.62
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 6.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T23:29Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Halo CME centered towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and after a data gap from 2023-11-27T17:53Z-23:53Z in STEREO A COR2. Source eruption can be seen starting around 2023-11-27T18:19Z in SDO AIA 193 and is best characterized by an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades. Associated with a C3.8 class flare from an unnumbered region around N20E15. The arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME and of the 2023-11-27T23:48Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-30T21:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-2.48
|
50.0
|
2023-11-28T19:46Z |
51.72
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T13:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-10.48
|
----
|
2023-11-28T22:04Z |
49.42
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T21:00Z
|
-2.48
|
----
|
2023-11-29T03:11Z |
44.30
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-30T18:20Z
|
-5.15
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 6.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-24T10:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is faintly seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M1.1 class flare from AR13499 (S18W02) peaking at 2023-11-24T09:33Z, with moving/opening field lines seen to the SW of the active region. There is no evidence of arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-27T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-25T00:21Z |
53.65
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-26T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-11-25T01:10Z |
40.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-27T01:08Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2023-11-25T13:42Z |
35.43
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-27T00:22Z
|
----
|
45.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-23T06:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Messy loop CME to the E in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Overlaps and likely interacts with CME:2023-11-23T06:00Z. Source is the liftoff of filamentary material spanning from N25E90 to N25E60, best seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting at 2023-11-23T06:08Z. The eruption that resulted in CME:2023-11-23T06:00Z may have triggered the eruption resulting in this CME. There is no clear arrival signature in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-26T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-24T16:38Z |
41.37
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-26T10:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-16T03:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-20T09:49Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is seen as dimming centered around N15W15 starting around 2023-11-16T00:34Z in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery near disk center. Overlaps in the field of view of the coronagraphs with CME: 2023-11-16T04:24Z, which is believed to have originated on the back side. Arrival signature: Characterized by a jump in B_total from around 5.6 nT to a peak of 14.55 nT, with Bz remaining largely neutral with a short southward spike to -5 nT. An increase in density and small spike in temperature and solar wind speed to about 340 km/s are also observed. A separate enhancement in the magnetic field components, possibly associated with the same CME event, is observed leading up to this event seen best from 2023-11-20T05:00Z onward with a gradual increase in B_total up to around 12 nT. Around 2023-11-20T09:12Z, Bt swiftly drops down to around 5-6 nT prior to this arrival.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-19T16:01Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.80
|
----
|
2023-11-16T14:29Z |
91.33
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-20T10:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
0.18
|
50.0
|
2023-11-16T23:50Z |
81.98
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-20T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-3.82
|
90.0
|
2023-11-17T15:27Z |
66.37
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-20T02:40Z
|
-7.15
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-10T20:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint and wide CME seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 in difference imagery. There appears to be a shock and bulk portion to this CME, with the shock exhibiting more of a dimpled front, possibly due to an emerging feature to the NW overlapping the upper left-hand portion of the CME. This doesn't appear to impact the trailing front or "bulk" portion of the CME. The source of this CME appears to be an eruption in the southwest quadrant of the Earth-facing disk near Active Regions 13484, 13477, and newly numbered AR 13485. Noticeable moving/opening field lines are seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 starting around 2023-11-10T18:34Z. Dimming is also visible in SDO/AIA 211 starting around 2023-11-10T19:29Z with wide and brief potential post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-11-10T21:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-15T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-11-11T15:38Z |
86.37
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-15T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2023-11-12T05:10Z |
78.83
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-15T13:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-11-12T06:29Z |
78.52
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-15T20:01Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
25.0
|
2023-11-13T13:16Z |
54.75
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-15T12:45Z
|
----
|
31.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.25 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-12T05:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is based off of STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap in SOHO at the time of this DONKI entry. The eruption starts around 2023-11-08T10:42Z and is primarily characterized as a broad region of dimming centered around S10W10 near AR 3480. A piece of a filament may have erupted as seen in SDO AIA 304. This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from AR 3480 peaking at 2023-11-09T11:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193, post-eruptive arcades can be best seen in SDO AIA 94/193, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. Increase in B_total from 1.8 nT to 5.12 nT, eventually reaching a maximum of 8.3 nT, accompanied by an increase in speed from 450 km/s to approx. 530 km/s, which reached a maximum of approx. 580 km/s. Rotation is also seen in the magnetic field components, and Bz reaches near -5.8 nT. Accompanied by increases in density and temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-11T18:00Z
|
-11.50
|
----
|
2023-11-09T19:06Z |
58.40
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T21:05Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-8.42
|
----
|
2023-11-09T21:30Z |
56.00
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-12T01:36Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.90
|
----
|
2023-11-09T22:22Z |
55.13
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-12T07:20Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.83
|
----
|
2023-11-09T22:24Z |
55.10
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T18:45Z
(-9.42h, +9.5h)
|
-10.75
|
----
|
2023-11-09T23:43Z |
53.78
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T18:24Z
(-6.817h, +5.9h)
|
-11.10
|
100.0
|
2023-11-10T00:19Z |
53.18
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T22:00Z
|
-7.50
|
70.0
|
2023-11-10T01:05Z |
52.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-12T01:25Z
|
-4.08
|
----
|
2023-11-10T01:10Z |
52.33
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-6.50
|
75.0
|
2023-11-10T02:15Z |
51.25
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T14:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-15.50
|
80.0
|
2023-11-10T06:20Z |
47.17
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-12T00:00Z
(-10.0h, +12.0h)
|
-5.50
|
99.0
|
2023-11-10T10:35Z |
42.92
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T23:01Z
(-13.5h, +13.5h)
|
-6.48
|
----
|
2023-11-10T12:32Z |
40.97
|
----
|
ELEvo
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-11T22:03Z
|
-7.45
|
84.8
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.375 - 6.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T11:45Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large complex-shaped (possibly partial halo) to the north. Source is likely the eruption of a very long filament stretching from N42E15 to N01W60 seen in AIA 193/304/131. The filament is centered very approximately around N30W30. The eruption was likely associated with the corresponding long duration C3.2-class flare peaking at 2023-11-03T06:17Z. Arrival signature: a sharp temporary jump in total magnetic field to 44 nT at 2023-11-05T11:45Z, up from the already elevated 20 nT after CME arrival four hours prior) accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 520 km/s; ion density remains high after the previous arrival in the morning. The arrival is followed by a bout of negative Bz with values close to -20 nT. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27611/-1
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-05T22:13Z
(-9.65h, +8.13h)
|
10.47
|
----
|
2023-11-03T16:45Z |
43.00
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T18:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
6.25
|
80.0
|
2023-11-03T17:07Z |
42.63
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T08:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.78
|
----
|
2023-11-03T17:08Z |
42.62
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
11.25
|
85.0
|
2023-11-03T19:39Z |
40.10
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T14:34Z
(-8.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.82
|
100.0
|
2023-11-04T01:14Z |
34.52
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T18:25Z
|
6.67
|
----
|
2023-11-04T01:25Z |
34.33
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T19:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
7.25
|
40.0
|
2023-11-04T22:15Z |
13.50
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T17:44Z
|
5.98
|
76.25
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T08:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the large dimming region centered around N25E25 which begins to dim around 2023-11-02T03:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Faint field line movement is visible above the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-11-02T04:30Z. ICME arrival signature is characterized by a sharp jump in magnetic field from already elevated 14 nT (after arrival a day before) to 25 nT, then gradually increasing to 34 nT, accompanied by rapid rotations of all three magnetic field components and by a jump in solar wind speed from 320 km/s to 430 km/s. There is a corresponding increase in ion density and temperature. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27602/-1
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-05T00:28Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-7.70
|
----
|
2023-11-02T15:02Z |
65.13
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-06T13:57Z
(-10.54h, +13.5h)
|
29.78
|
----
|
2023-11-02T15:58Z |
64.20
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-04T20:19Z
(-4.16h, +6.85h)
|
-11.85
|
70.0
|
2023-11-02T19:14Z |
60.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T01:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-7.17
|
75.0
|
2023-11-02T23:28Z |
56.70
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T12:02Z
|
3.87
|
----
|
2023-11-03T11:53Z |
44.28
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T03:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-5.17
|
----
|
2023-11-04T05:50Z |
26.33
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-05T08:27Z
|
0.28
|
72.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-10-31T22:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-04T15:45Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is a filament eruption stretching between S18E00 to S40E40. The filament begins to erupt around 2023-10-31T20:00Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 with clear deflection to the south/southeast towards disk center before exiting the SDO/AIA field-of-view. Brightening, moving/opening field lines, and a wide-set post-eruptive arcade are visible following the eruption of the filament in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 304. Likely arrival signature is characterized by a rapid amplification of magnetic field with Btotal increasing from 5nT at 2023-11-04T15:45Z to 16nT at 16:57Z. A significant increase in density is observed as well. Further review of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian at NASA/GSFC suggests that this arrival may be associated with CME: 2023-10-31T22:12Z. It is possible that the B rotations in late Nov 4 at the WIND spacecraft are due to the same CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-11-04T21:00Z
|
5.25
|
----
|
2023-11-01T05:07Z |
82.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-04T03:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-12.75
|
35.0
|
2023-11-01T13:16Z |
74.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-04T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-10.75
|
----
|
2023-11-01T21:19Z |
66.43
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-11-04T09:40Z
|
-6.08
|
35.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 3.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-10-18T06:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME appears fairly faint in SOHO imagery, but is more clearly defined in STEREO A imagery. The source appears to be a minor/brief eruption from ~S23E37 starting around 2023-10-18T05:37Z with filament ejecta visible in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 06:00Z and associated dimming seen at 06:38Z following eruption in SDO/AIA 193. There are some minor and brief post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 335 best seen around 06:30Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-10-22T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-10-18T18:22Z |
77.63
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-20T21:34Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-10-18T20:33Z |
49.02
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-21T23:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-10-19T12:29Z |
59.02
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-21T15:01Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-10-19T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-15.50
|
----
|
2023-10-16T16:33Z |
86.95
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-19T03:09Z
|
-28.35
|
----
|
2023-10-16T21:20Z |
82.17
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-19T13:30Z
(-4.033h, +4.05h)
|
-18.00
|
6.0
|
2023-10-16T21:54Z |
81.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-19T21:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-10.50
|
----
|
2023-10-16T23:09Z |
80.35
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-20T13:41Z
(-9.5h, +12.37h)
|
6.18
|
----
|
2023-10-16T23:49Z |
79.68
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-20T03:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-4.50
|
60.0
|
2023-10-17T03:48Z |
75.70
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-20T01:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-6.50
|
20.0
|
2023-10-17T12:51Z |
66.65
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-19T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-16.50
|
----
|
2023-10-17T19:08Z |
60.37
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-20T01:00Z
(-10.0h, +8.0h)
|
-6.50
|
40.0
|
2023-10-17T22:00Z |
57.50
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-19T06:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-25.45
|
----
|
2023-10-18T10:28Z |
45.03
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-19T08:42Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-22.80
|
----
|
2023-10-18T10:29Z |
45.02
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-20T14:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
6.50
|
35.0
|
2023-10-19T12:24Z |
19.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-19T19:40Z
|
-11.83
|
32.2
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.625 - 4.625
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-10-14T14:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.67
CME Note: This very faint NW CME is barely seen in C3 and is completely covered by a data gap in COR2A. Its source is an eruption in AR 3466 (N09W27), seen as dimming around the AR and as post-eruptive arcade mostly to the NNW of the AR, as seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-10-14T13Z. Arrival signature was analyzed by Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team: there is likely a SIR signature on 2023-10-18: a shock driven by this SIR (an increase in proton density, bulk speed, and ion temperature). There is likely no sheath region seen after the SIR signature: following the shock, you see the compression region with increased proton density, and bulk speed (the speed is gradually increasing and so is ion temperature). After that, we are in the high-speed stream with lower proton density and enhanced ion temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-10-18T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-10-14T21:36Z |
82.40
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-18T09:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-10-15T00:55Z |
80.08
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-18T08:30Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-10-14T04:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.67
CME Note: Slow partial halo CME in the NNW with the source a gradual eruption of a long filament stretched between 15 and 40 degrees longitude along the latitude of 36 degrees N. The eruption is marked by post-eruptive arcades and relatively minor dimming along the filament channel, as seen in AIA 193 and 304 starting after 2023-10-14T04Z.
Regarding arrival signature from Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team: there is a SIR signature early on 2023-10-18 - a shock driven by this SIR (marked by an increase in proton density, bulk speed, and ion temperature). There is likely no sheath region seen after the SIR signature: following the shock, you see the compression region with increased proton density, and bulk speed (the speed is gradually increasing and so is ion temperature). After that, we are in the high-speed stream with lower proton density and enhanced ion temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-10-18T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-10-14T13:34Z |
87.43
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-18T09:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-10-15T01:00Z |
80.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-18T07:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-10-02T18:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-05T21:25Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.33
CME Note: Extremely faint CME with uneven front seen to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 and COR2A. Source is very uncertain but one low confidence candidate is an area of very subtle dimming seen at 2023-10-02T16:54Z in SDO AIA & GOES SUVI 195 spanning from about N05E22 to N05E00(AR 13453) down to S10E00. Centered at about S05E10. This dimming is possibly associated with a C-class flare and small eruption from AR 13450 (S10E07) seen starting at 2023-10-02T15:54Z. A possible weak arrival starts around 2023-10-05T21:25Z and is characterized by rapid increase in wind speed from 430 to 490 km/s, some gradual increase in magnetic field strength from 5 to 9 nT, density increase from 3 to 14 particles/cc, and relatively small decrease in temperature. Field rotations follow around 2023-10-0617:00Z; there is a small increase in GOES >1 MeV channel at the same time that seems to support a CME arrival.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-10-06T11:11Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.77
|
----
|
2023-10-03T19:29Z |
49.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-05T19:02Z
|
-2.38
|
----
|
2023-10-03T22:48Z |
46.62
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-07T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
27.58
|
----
|
2023-10-04T09:10Z |
36.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-06T06:00Z
|
8.58
|
----
|
2023-10-04T11:23Z |
34.03
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-10-06T09:18Z
|
11.88
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-22T22:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME seen nearly due south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery; the CME is likely associated with an M1.9-class flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 13435 near center disk (N07W01) with an erupting magnetic loop, coronal spray, and series of brightenings from near the active region footpoints seen best in SDO 193 and 304. May partly be associated with a stray and faint erupting loop seen far off the southwest limb in SDO 171 near 2023-09-23T21:00Z but the timing of which the CME is first seen seems to be more likely in response to the center-disk eruptive signature. No clear arrival signature detected, although there is a relatively minor change in magnetic field on 2023-09-26T04:29Z and another one on 2023-09-26T10:58Z (but these signatures were determined inconclusive/minor).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-25T22:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-23T17:11Z |
53.62
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-25T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-23T17:31Z |
50.48
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-25T12:28Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-25T12:08Z |
0.33
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-25T17:59Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-25T13:09Z |
4.83
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-25T18:18Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-22T07:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME fades away quickly in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery, and the leading edge is diffuse. Source location is likely an eruption centered around N27W02 starting around 2023-09-22T06:00Z best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-14T07:24Z CME or possibly the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-24T08:42Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-11.17
|
----
|
2023-09-22T15:21Z |
52.52
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T04:50Z
(-7.7h, +7.7h)
|
-15.03
|
95.0
|
2023-09-22T20:51Z |
47.02
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-23T16:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-27.37
|
----
|
2023-09-23T13:05Z |
30.78
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T14:52Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.00
|
----
|
2023-09-23T13:06Z |
30.77
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T05:13Z
|
-14.65
|
95.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption near AR 3435 (approximately (N08E17). The liftoff can be seen starting around 2023-09-22T01:28Z in SDO AIA 193/304. There is also an M1.2 flare just after the start of the filament eruption from this AR starting at 2023-09-22T02:25Z, followed by post-eruptive loops best seen in SDO AIA 131/193. Brightening can also be seen in this region in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-22T07:36Z CME or the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-24T08:42Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-11.17
|
----
|
2023-09-22T15:21Z |
52.52
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T04:55Z
(-6.6h, +10.09h)
|
-14.95
|
----
|
2023-09-22T16:53Z |
50.98
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T03:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-16.87
|
----
|
2023-09-22T19:11Z |
48.68
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T04:50Z
(-7.7h, +7.7h)
|
-15.03
|
95.0
|
2023-09-22T20:51Z |
47.02
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T10:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
-9.87
|
60.0
|
2023-09-23T04:30Z |
39.37
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T20:33Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
0.68
|
30.0
|
2023-09-23T06:37Z |
37.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T03:14Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-16.63
|
----
|
2023-09-23T23:58Z |
19.90
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T17:28Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.40
|
----
|
2023-09-23T23:59Z |
19.88
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-24T09:05Z
|
-10.78
|
61.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.2 - 5.4
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-21T13:38:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent M8.7 flare from AR 3435 (N08E22) starting around 2023-09-21T12:51Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming and field line movement is also visible near the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193. It is possible that this CME was overtaken by one or two CMEs from September 22 that are thought to have arrived at L1 on 2023-09-24T19:52Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-25T01:58Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-09-22T08:00Z |
65.97
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-25T01:58Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-20T15:05:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent M8.2 flare from AR 3435 (N07E35) seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-09-20T14:15Z. Dimming and field line movement is visible near the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery as well. No CME arrival signature at L1 on September 22-23.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-23T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-20T18:58Z |
73.03
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-23T20:52Z
(-2.9h, +1.6h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-09-20T21:12Z |
71.67
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-23T03:19Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
35.0
|
2023-09-21T09:22Z |
41.95
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-23T17:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-09-21T20:00Z |
45.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-23T15:17Z
|
----
|
28.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-18T12:09:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Ear-shaped partial halo CME in the NW (or two CMEs moving in unison), with no clear source found, so it is likely backsided. To support the backsided assumption, there seems to be a faint opening of magnetic field lines/restructuring of magnetic field seemingly far behind the NW limb seen in GOES SUVI 284 around 2023-09-18T12Z. Although there is no clear front-sided source, there seems to be minor flaring in AR 3433 (delayed to a plage) and AR 3429 and there is seems to be a post-eruptive arcade that fills a dark filament channel W centered (N10W50) of AR3439 by 12:55Z. There is also a very minor eruption on the NW limb N of AR 3225(N23W81) starting at in AIA 304. These are very minor coronal signatures though. There are no CME arrival signatures at L1 on September 22-23 and the second half of 21.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-22T11:12Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-09-19T05:34Z |
77.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-22T11:12Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-17T13:38:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Beautiful bright 3-part CME with the the source a slowly developing eruption of a large filament off the SW limb (~S40W90), with a faint opening of field lines seemingly behind the limb seen in AIA 171/193/304 indicating that the eruption might be more backsided (behind the limb). The filament eruption is best seen in its earlier stages in EUVI A 304 and in its later stages in GOES SUVI 304. The eruption is seen starting after 2023-09-17T10:45Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-21T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-09-18T11:12Z |
72.80
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-21T12:00Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-18T12:58Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 7.0
CME Note: Wide, complex, difficult to analyze CME with primary directionality (bulk) to the southwest in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs but containing features also seen to the west, south, and southeast along a discontinuous front. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk from 2023-09-16T07:00Z to 09:00Z seen best in SDO/GOES 304; filament extends from N30W00 southwest through N10W30 with a minor, more narrow segment extending back east from N10W30 back towards S03W05. Arrival signature: Sudden sharp jump in solar wind parameters with B total reaching 21 nT and speed increasing above 550 km/s. May be indicative of additional coronal hole high speed stream influences (Tarik Salman, LASSOS team) from coronal hole at central meridian on 2023-09-15. Less likely but possible that this is a combined arrival of this CME and the 2023-09-14T23:12Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-19T18:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
29.95
|
----
|
2023-09-16T17:16Z |
43.70
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T07:27Z
|
18.48
|
----
|
2023-09-16T17:25Z |
43.55
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T05:11Z
(-9.92h, +11.04h)
|
16.22
|
----
|
2023-09-16T18:08Z |
42.83
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T15:15Z
(-7.0h, +8.0h)
|
26.28
|
95.0
|
2023-09-16T19:20Z |
41.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-18T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
7.03
|
70.0
|
2023-09-17T02:15Z |
34.72
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T11:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
22.03
|
70.0
|
2023-09-17T06:03Z |
30.92
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T18:52Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
29.90
|
----
|
2023-09-17T20:20Z |
16.63
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T10:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
21.52
|
----
|
2023-09-17T20:22Z |
16.60
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T13:00Z
|
24.03
|
70.0
|
2023-09-18T03:09Z |
9.82
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
23.03
|
90.0
|
2023-09-18T10:28Z |
2.50
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-19T10:48Z
|
21.83
|
79.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.85714 - 5.85714
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-14T23:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Very faint CME to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely an M2.5 flare and eruption from AR 3429 (N10E06). Ejecta seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2023-09-14T21:54Z, and post-eruptive brightening is also seen. Post-eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2023-09-14T22:48Z. It is possible that this CME was swept by the 2023-09-16T09:12Z CME arriving at 2023-09-18T12:58Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-18T09:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-15T04:14Z |
77.73
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-18T09:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-09-15T13:40Z |
67.33
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-18T09:29Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-14T07:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-17T01:53Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.67
CME Note: Bright CME NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 that may be associated with a faint partial to full halo. The source is a filament eruption seen between AR's 13425 & 13423 stretching from ~N22W40 to ~N26W55. Eruption begins ~2023-09-14T06:40Z in SDO/AIA 304 followed by brightening at the foot points of the source location. Associated dimming, minor EUV wave, moving/opening field lines, and post-eruptive arcade are visible in most SDO/AIA wavelengths including 193, 171, 211, and 131. The visible dimming is seen primarily north of the filament location with the minor EUV wave primarily seen along the W/NW limb in SDO/AIA 211. An M-class flare is associated with the post-eruptive arcade occurring between AR's 13425 & 13423. Arrival signature is characterized by a relatively modest jump in ion density and temperature, as well as in magnetic field, with B total reaching 8nT. Preceded by a relatively gradual increase in solar wind speed from 400 to 480 km/s.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-16T13:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-11.92
|
----
|
2023-09-14T14:37Z |
59.27
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-16T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.88
|
----
|
2023-09-14T16:23Z |
57.50
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-17T04:07Z
(-12.86h, +14.68h)
|
2.23
|
----
|
2023-09-14T16:35Z |
57.30
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-16T18:00Z
|
-7.88
|
60.0
|
2023-09-14T16:49Z |
57.07
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-16T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.88
|
----
|
2023-09-14T17:06Z |
56.78
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-16T16:38Z
|
-9.25
|
----
|
2023-09-14T17:10Z |
56.72
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-17T00:37Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.27
|
----
|
2023-09-14T18:38Z |
55.25
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-16T14:15Z
(-7.1h, +5.6h)
|
-11.63
|
20.0
|
2023-09-15T00:31Z |
49.37
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-16T21:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-4.38
|
30.0
|
2023-09-15T15:30Z |
34.38
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-16T19:53Z
|
-6.00
|
36.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.16667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-11T15:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-14T13:22Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: A very faint CME seen mainly in SOHO C3. Its source might be an eruption of very minor filament seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2023-09-11T13:57Z mostly as dimming West of Active Region 13430. Filament stretches from S12W14 to S29E01. There is a post-eruptive brightening in SDO AIA 304 and dimming in SDO AIA 193. The arrival signature is characterized by a sheath region possibly starting at 2023-09-14T13:22Z and ejecta/CME core possibly starting by 2023-09-14T16:29Z and lasting until approximately 2023-09-14T21:12Z. The boundaries are identified mostly via magnetic field measurements and the ejecta features rotations of the non-radial components.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-14T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.63
|
----
|
2023-09-11T20:40Z |
64.70
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-14T20:00Z
|
6.63
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-11T01:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source of this NE CME is the M-class flare and associated eruption from AR 3429 (N09E58), seen as brightening and ejecta in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2023-09-11T01:07Z. Also seen in SDO AIA 171 and as dimming in SDO AIA 193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-14T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-11T17:43Z |
55.28
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-14T01:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-07T19:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright and fast CME associated with the M1.2 class flare from Active Region 13425 (N20E55) and an associated eruption between Active Regions 13425 and 13424, starting at 2023-09-07T19Z as seen in AIA 304/193/171. There is also an outflow/CME following it first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-09-07T21:12Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-10T23:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-08T19:28Z |
52.03
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-10T23:30Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-01T23:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-05T14:38Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: CME associated with a flare and filament eruption in the SE region S21E44, with eruption starting after 22:14Z. The filament is best seen erupting in 304 (AIA/SUVI) imagery. Arrival Signature: Characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 5nT to 9nT, reaching a maximum near 10nT. Accompanied by an increase in speed from 380 km/s at 2023-09-05T14:38Z to ~450 km/s at 15:11Z with subsequent increases in density and temperature. This shock likely corresponds to the arrival of CME 2023-09-01T23:12Z and is also observed at STEREO A starting around 2023-09-05T10:50Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-05T12:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.13
|
----
|
2023-09-02T13:54Z |
72.73
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-05T12:30Z
|
-2.13
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-09-01T03:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright, wide, and fast CME seen emanating to the west-northwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in association with a long-duration M1.2-class solar flare from Active Region 13413 (N09W70) and significant eruptive signature consisting of rising and "snapping" plasma seen best in SDO 304, a fast EUV wave seen off the limb moving to the east, quickly and rapidly opening magnetic field lines off the west-northwestern limb in SDO 193 and SDO 171 as well as a post-eruptive arcade signature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-03T08:41Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-01T05:45Z |
50.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T16:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-01T11:15Z |
29.55
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T13:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-01T11:16Z |
50.23
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-01T13:54Z |
49.10
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Tony Iampietro (M2M) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T17:01Z
(-8.86h, +10.29h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-01T13:59Z |
51.03
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T12:50Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-09-01T18:55Z |
41.92
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T02:47Z
(-6.8h, +6.2h)
|
----
|
73.0
|
2023-09-01T23:56Z |
26.85
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T06:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-02T01:10Z |
28.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T08:34Z
|
----
|
51.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.2 - 5.6
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-09-03T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-31T13:16Z |
64.73
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T16:11Z
(-7.01h, +8.8h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-31T13:29Z |
50.70
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T13:09Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-31T16:26Z |
44.72
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T22:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2023-08-31T16:40Z |
53.33
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T18:00Z
(-8.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-08-31T21:45Z |
44.25
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T17:00Z
|
----
|
60.0
|
2023-09-01T00:50Z |
40.17
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-03T05:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-09-01T07:33Z |
45.45
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T16:37Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-01T11:12Z |
29.42
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T19:16Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-09-01T11:13Z |
32.05
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T13:36Z
(-7.7h, +9.7h)
|
----
|
100.0
|
2023-09-01T19:40Z |
17.93
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-09-02T19:28Z
|
----
|
56.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.16667 - 6.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-23T02:17:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Filament eruption CME with asymmetric front seen to the southwest comprised of a brighter bulk along the right leading edge and fainter loop with cavity on the left leading edge. Notable deflection westward as seen in SDO 304 imagery.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-27T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-23T16:00Z |
92.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-27T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-22T23:29:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Ultra-faint CME seen primarily to the south and west, especially in SOHO LASCO running difference imagery after 2023-08-23T23:00Z. Likely associated with the M1.1-class flare from Active Region 3405 (N10W32) and sympathetic structure of U-shaped dimming seen south and east of the active region, possibly centered around S10W20. Analysis and modeling of this CME is very uncertain and speculative given current geometry of available observing spacecraft, data gaps, and faintness of the CME. No clear evidence of arrival.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-26T19:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
25.0
|
2023-08-23T09:22Z |
81.63
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-26T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-23T16:53Z |
55.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-26T09:30Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-18T22:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3, as well as in STEREO A COR2 difference imagery. This CME overlaps with the CME first seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-08-18T19:48Z. The source of this CME is a C3.0 class flare from AR13409 (~N21W42) and associated filament eruption. The filament appears to have two parts erupt, an initial little arch of filament material related to the start of the flare and a more thick stream of filament material lifting off while the flare is nearing its peak. This is best seen in GOES SUVI 304, but is also visible in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 imagery. There is no obvious arrival across all solar wind parameters.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-22T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-19T17:57Z |
66.05
|
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 2.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-22T22:30Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2023-08-20T22:56Z |
47.57
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-22T17:15Z
|
----
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 1.5 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-18T19:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery for most of this event, it is possibly seen in later COR2A difference imagery frames after the data gap ends at 2023-08-18T23:23Z. The source of this CME is a C3.7 class flare from AR13409 (~N21W41) peaking at 2023-08-18T19:30Z with associated brief dimming to the NW of the AR starting around 2023-08-18T19:24Z, best seen in SDO/AIA 193. There is also very quick moving/opening field lines around the same time in SDO/AIA 193 to the NW. There is no obvious arrival across all solar wind parameters.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-22T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-19T17:57Z |
66.05
|
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 2.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-22T12:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 2.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-05T22:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible in the west of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. STEREO A COR2 imagery not available at the start of this CME. Associated with an X1.6 flare and eruption from AR 3386 (N11W75) with opening field lines, an EUV wave, and post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. No clear arrival signature confirming the arrival of this CME seen at L1, but there is a slight possibility of that there is a glancing blow signature ~2023-08-08T01Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-09T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-06T01:11Z |
76.82
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T02:46Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-06T13:51Z |
12.92
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-08T02:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-06T13:53Z |
37.03
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-08T02:30Z
(-4.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-06T18:22Z |
32.13
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-08T03:32Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T11:07Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide CME seen W and S in SOHO and STEREO A associated with long duration M1.6-class solar flare/filament eruption near S10W68. Faint shock presents as a full halo with preference towards the west. Around 2023-08-05T06:45Z, a dark filament near the western portion of the disk is seen lifting off, becoming a bright structure as it leaves the disk towards the west. A somewhat unclear arrival signature, affected by low quality solar wind data from both DSCOVR and ACE during this time period. Arrival signature: initial increase in B_total from 7.4 nT to 10.5 nT, followed by another increase to 13.6 nT at 11:54Z. The signature looks like a messy sheath arrival and it is possible that there is a flux rope/magnetic cloud at ~2023-08-08T01Z but this could be another CME arrival (LASSOS team). The current arrival may also have been observed at STEREO A around 2023-08-07T08:46Z. Alternatively, this could be the combined arrival of 2023-08-04T04:17Z and 2023-08-04T04:49Z CMEs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-08T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.88
|
----
|
2023-08-05T11:12Z |
47.92
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
11.88
|
----
|
2023-08-05T14:43Z |
44.40
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-08T01:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
13.88
|
60.0
|
2023-08-05T22:00Z |
37.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-08T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
24.88
|
75.0
|
2023-08-05T22:36Z |
36.52
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T07:57Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.17
|
----
|
2023-08-06T13:42Z |
21.42
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T22:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
11.47
|
----
|
2023-08-06T13:44Z |
21.38
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T18:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
6.88
|
50.0
|
2023-08-06T19:50Z |
15.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T22:30Z
|
11.38
|
61.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-04T04:49:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T01:15Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Second of two CMEs seen to the north and west in SOHO/STEREO A imagery starting around 2023-08-04T04:17Z which is inferred to be in association with a long duration M1.9-class solar flare near the vicinity of Active Region 3386 (N12W46) due to the complex, sympathetic eruptive signature containing multiple areas of dimming. The CME front seen first near 2023-08-04T04:49Z appears to be embedded within the first, and is directed more westerly. Please see DONKI entry for additional details on the event signature. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-07T07:17Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.03
|
----
|
2023-08-04T17:11Z |
56.07
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T06:15Z
(-8.7h, +7.3h)
|
5.00
|
90.0
|
2023-08-04T21:20Z |
51.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T13:46Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
12.52
|
----
|
2023-08-05T07:47Z |
41.47
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T06:08Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
4.88
|
----
|
2023-08-05T07:49Z |
41.43
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T08:21Z
|
7.10
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T01:15Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: First of two CMEs seen to the N and W in SOHO/STEREO A imagery in association with a long duration M1.9-class flare near the vicinity of AR13386 (N12W46) and a complex, sympathetic eruptive signature before/after the flare. This CME is directed more northward than the latter CME, appearing bulbous with a protruding leading edge and a wide/faint shock seen predominantly to the N and NE. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-07T07:17Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.03
|
----
|
2023-08-04T17:09Z |
56.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-06T12:14Z
(-9.71h, +13.15h)
|
-13.02
|
----
|
2023-08-04T17:46Z |
55.48
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T06:15Z
(-8.7h, +7.3h)
|
5.00
|
90.0
|
2023-08-04T21:20Z |
51.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T13:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
11.75
|
50.0
|
2023-08-04T21:35Z |
51.67
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T07:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
5.75
|
40.0
|
2023-08-04T22:10Z |
51.08
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-06T14:24Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-10.85
|
----
|
2023-08-05T07:39Z |
41.60
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-06T22:57Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.30
|
----
|
2023-08-05T07:40Z |
41.58
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-07T01:35Z
|
0.33
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-05T02:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.67
CME Note: This CME is seen as a halo CME with a bulk portion seen more predominantly to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The more full halo portion is fairly faint in coronagraph imagery. The source of this CME is an S-shaped filament eruption stretching from roughly N10 to S15. There is clear dimming associated with this source as seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-08-02T08:00Z. This dimming stretches from W10 to W30 within the N10 to S15 latitudes. Arrival signature: clear magnetic field enhancement from 10 to 19 nT and later to about 23 nT along sharp rises in ACE/DSCOVR density, velocity, and temperature parameters.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-05T04:21Z
(-5.0h, +5.0h)
|
2.18
|
100.0
|
2023-08-02T11:14Z |
62.93
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-05T13:42Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
11.53
|
70.0
|
2023-08-02T12:54Z |
61.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-05T03:50Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.67
|
----
|
2023-08-02T16:28Z |
57.70
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-06T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +6.0h)
|
27.83
|
70.0
|
2023-08-02T18:10Z |
56.00
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-04T22:57Z
|
-3.22
|
----
|
2023-08-02T20:00Z |
54.17
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-04T21:13Z
(-6.59h, +9.21h)
|
-4.95
|
----
|
2023-08-02T22:24Z |
51.77
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-05T08:00Z
|
5.83
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.6 - 5.6
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-08-01T12:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint fast jet CME in the NW. No definitive source has been found; it could be an eruption in Active Region 13386 starting ~2023-08-01T10:30Z, with dimming and post eruptive arcades. Arrival signature starting at 2023-08-05T02:10Z was attributed to a wider 2023-08-02T09:12Z CME with expected more direct hit at earth.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-04T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-08-01T20:48Z |
73.20
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-04T22:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T06:52Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is first seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-07-31T23:36Z in both white light and difference imagery. The source of this CME is likely the northern portion (from N15 to S10) of a filament which erupted at central meridian and seems to have deflected to the NE as seen in UV imagery. The northern portion of the filament seems to lift off at about 2023-07-31T17:30Z, as seen in SDO AIA 304 (though, it is difficult to discern exact time due to having only a face-on view of the solar disk). This CME overlaps with a prior CME which likely has a source on the far side of the solar disk. Arrival signature: Rapid magnetic field enhancement from 10 nT to 15-16 nT starting around 2023-08-04T06:52Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind velocity and temperature parameters. Possibly merged with 2023-07-31T23:12Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-04T05:27Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.42
|
----
|
2023-08-01T19:59Z |
58.88
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-04T07:03Z
(-5.0h, +7.0h)
|
0.18
|
100.0
|
2023-08-03T18:35Z |
12.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-04T06:15Z
|
-0.62
|
100.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-31T23:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T06:52Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME seen as a partial halo to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This feature overlaps multiple CME fronts to the SW. The source appears to be the southern portion of a large North-South s-shaped filament eruption along the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk. The southern portion of this filament appears to potentially lift off at about 2023-07-31T19:05Z roughly centered around S22E02. The northern portion of the filament eruption may be associated with another CME feature seen in the coronagraphs to the East. Arrival signature: Rapid magnetic field enhancement from 10 nT to 15-16 nT starting around 2023-08-04T06:52Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind velocity and temperature parameters. Possibly merged with 2023-07-31T23:36Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-04T05:27Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.42
|
----
|
2023-08-01T19:59Z |
58.88
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-04T07:03Z
(-5.0h, +7.0h)
|
0.18
|
100.0
|
2023-08-03T18:35Z |
12.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-04T06:15Z
|
-0.62
|
100.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-28T22:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-01T10:08Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Asymmetric partial halo CME seen directed primarily towards the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption centered around N25E25 with liftoff starting around 2023-07-28T21:10Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUV and COR2 imagery after a data gap from 2023-07-28T20:05Z to 2023-07-29T01:05Z. Arrival signature: Two consecutive spikes of B_total to >11nT separated by 5 hours, the second one (at ~16Z) likely marking the start of the flux rope.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-01T19:26Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
9.30
|
60.0
|
2023-07-29T13:29Z |
68.65
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-31T23:41Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-10.45
|
----
|
2023-07-29T13:53Z |
68.25
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T10:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
-0.13
|
80.0
|
2023-07-29T15:45Z |
66.38
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T02:22Z
(-12.18h, +15.54h)
|
-7.77
|
----
|
2023-07-29T16:38Z |
65.50
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T02:48Z
(-6.5h, +6.0h)
|
-7.33
|
100.0
|
2023-07-29T20:26Z |
61.70
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T03:59Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.15
|
----
|
2023-07-30T08:00Z |
50.13
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-31T22:56Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-11.20
|
----
|
2023-07-30T08:01Z |
50.12
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-31T18:15Z
|
-15.88
|
----
|
2023-07-30T08:20Z |
49.80
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T00:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
-10.13
|
70.0
|
2023-07-30T22:00Z |
36.13
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T03:20Z
|
-6.80
|
76.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.57143 - 5.71429
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T02:00Z
|
-8.13
|
70.0
|
2023-07-31T07:45Z |
26.38
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-28T15:53:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Fast CME in the NW following the associated M-class flare from AR3376 behind the limb (N25W99) and the associated bright magnificent eruption seen just behind the limb in AIA 131/304/193 in the NW starting around 2023-07-28T15:45Z. We can see the rotating flux rope in coronagraphs. There is also a more halo-like fainter shock which is likely backsided. Glancing blow at L1 is unlikely because the CME is either on limb or backsided, so arrival at L1 2023-08-01T10:08Z was attributed to a much more likely front-sided 2023-07-28T22:36Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-08-01T11:15Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2023-07-29T13:26Z |
69.82
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-08-01T11:15Z
|
----
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-25T21:54Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Halo CME with shock front preceding the brighter bulk. Its source is likely an eruption in AR3376 (N23W34) starting after 2023-07-23T14:00Z, likely associated with the C5.2 class flare from AR 3376 (N23W34) peaking at 2023-07-23T14:57Z. There also was a C7.4 class flare from AR 3372 on the NW limb at the time that has to be considered. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 6 nT to 17 nT, rapid velocity increase from ~390 km/s to 550 km/s, and accompanying density increase. Flux rope may have started closer to 2023-07-26T03:44Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-26T21:00Z
|
23.10
|
----
|
2023-07-23T19:12Z |
50.70
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-26T05:31Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.62
|
----
|
2023-07-23T19:20Z |
50.57
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-27T01:33Z
(-12.56h, +13.53h)
|
27.65
|
----
|
2023-07-23T22:43Z |
47.18
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-25T21:26Z
|
-0.47
|
----
|
2023-07-23T23:02Z |
46.87
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-27T00:01Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
26.12
|
40.0
|
2023-07-24T00:18Z |
45.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-25T16:41Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.22
|
----
|
2023-07-24T07:37Z |
38.28
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-26T06:50Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.93
|
----
|
2023-07-24T07:38Z |
38.27
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-26T03:37Z
(-7.0h, +6.0h)
|
5.72
|
54.0
|
2023-07-24T16:38Z |
29.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-26T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
22.10
|
30.0
|
2023-07-25T11:21Z |
10.55
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-26T10:44Z
|
12.83
|
41.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.2 - 4.8
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-18T20:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T19:25Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source of this NE CME is likely an eruption and M1.4 flare from AR 3376 (N27E35) starting ~2023-07-18T19:25Z as seen in SDO AIA. This event partially overlaps with CME 2023-07-18T20:36Z. Arrival signature: from Tarik Mohammad (LASSOS team) a well-defined shock (increase in magnetic field strength, proton density, and bulk speed). A possible sheath region following the shock (enhancements in all the parameters). The possible ICME ejecta start is ~2023-07-21T22:20Z: rotations in both B_y (positive to negative) and B_z (negative to positive) and a sharp decrease in proton density and decrease in bulk speed and temperature. Possibly flank CME encounter since the components (specially B_x and B_y) remain constant. The end of the ICME ejecta is difficult to determine as we have a trailing high-speed stream. The possible end is around 2023-07-22T06:00Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-21T14:37Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-4.80
|
60.0
|
2023-07-19T15:11Z |
52.23
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-21T12:30Z
|
-6.92
|
----
|
2023-07-19T15:13Z |
52.20
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-21T06:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-13.42
|
50.0
|
2023-07-19T18:10Z |
49.25
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-21T09:15Z
(-10.52h, +13.19h)
|
-10.17
|
----
|
2023-07-19T22:23Z |
45.03
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-21T10:35Z
|
-8.83
|
55.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-17T23:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-20T16:07Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY until LASSOS discussion 9/7] Halo CME seen primarily to the southwest in association with two separate M5.0+ class solar flares and a strong eruption from Active Region 3633 (S25W73). The eruption is proceeded by another eruption which is impressive in itself; the main eruption starting around 23:18Z as seen in SDO 131 imagery is characterized by a very large scale brightening near Active Region 3363 with rising plasma along the southeastern portion of the active region, widely and quickly moving and opening magnetic field lines seen in SDO 193/171, and a strong post-eruptive arcade signature characterized by intense, regional brightening along the southwest limb in SDO 131. Associated with SEP events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. Arrival signature: A jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 440 km/s, accompanied by a jump in B total to just under 12 nT, an increase in density and rotation of magnetic field components.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-19T18:28Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-21.65
|
----
|
2023-07-18T03:15Z |
60.87
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-20T08:25Z
(-11.74h, +15.55h)
|
-7.70
|
----
|
2023-07-18T04:01Z |
60.10
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-20T06:30Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
-9.62
|
50.0
|
2023-07-18T04:20Z |
59.78
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-19T12:09Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-27.97
|
----
|
2023-07-18T08:09Z |
55.97
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-20T09:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.63
|
----
|
2023-07-18T08:26Z |
55.68
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-19T22:27Z
|
-17.67
|
----
|
2023-07-18T08:30Z |
55.62
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-19T20:40Z
(-8.2h, +10.3h)
|
-19.45
|
93.0
|
2023-07-18T17:17Z |
46.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-19T21:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-18.62
|
20.0
|
2023-07-19T10:38Z |
29.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-20T14:00Z
|
-2.12
|
----
|
2023-07-19T15:13Z |
24.90
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-20T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-12.12
|
----
|
2023-07-19T23:05Z |
17.03
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-20T01:45Z
|
-14.37
|
54.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.33333 - 6.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-16T17:53:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide event with bulk seen to the southwest with distinguishable wider and fainter shock front extending to the south-southeast and widening even further with time to the southeast. Associated with a long-duration M4.0-class flare from AR 3363 near S25W60 and simultaneous eruption. Eruption with opening magnetic field lines are seen best in GOES-18 195/171. SOHO LASCO C3 data gap at this time. There is no clear arrival across all solar wind parameters.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-19T09:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-17T13:33Z |
43.45
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-18T21:18Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-17T14:56Z |
30.37
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-19T02:39Z
(-4.8h, +5.3h)
|
----
|
84.0
|
2023-07-17T22:22Z |
28.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-18T14:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-18T08:05Z |
6.02
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-19T07:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-18T08:06Z |
23.38
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-19T01:18Z
|
----
|
84.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-15T20:06:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is seen as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME is associated with a C8.8 flare from AR13363 (S22W45). This CME may coincide with the DONKI entry with ID: 2023-07-15T20:13:00-CME-001. There is no clear arrival across all solar wind parameters.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-18T21:00Z
(-14.0h, +14.0h)
|
----
|
35.0
|
2023-07-16T12:53Z |
56.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-18T21:00Z
|
----
|
35.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-16T18:35Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY until LASSOS discussion 9/7]. CME is faint and difficult to observe, seen as a partial halo to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and for few frames in STEREO A COR2 preceding data gap. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent C8.8 flare from AR 3370 (near S18E14) starting around 2023-07-14T18:35Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Noticeably deflected W. Arrival signature: Sharp increase in B-total from 7nT to 13nT. Sudden fluctuation in B-field components and increases in solar wind speed from ~350km/s to ~450km/s, in temperature and gradual increase in density. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS: definite shock arrival ~2023-07-16T18:35Z and another similar and more prominent feature in the plasma data around 2023-07-17T01:26Z (speed jump of 200 km/s) but nothing in the magnetic field. It is possible to have an admixture of HSS as well late on 2023-07-17.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-17T08:07Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.53
|
----
|
2023-07-15T15:20Z |
27.25
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-17T03:54Z
|
9.32
|
----
|
2023-07-15T17:45Z |
24.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-17T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
17.42
|
60.0
|
2023-07-15T22:50Z |
19.75
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-17T03:01Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
8.43
|
100.0
|
2023-07-15T23:09Z |
19.43
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-17T14:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
19.42
|
60.0
|
2023-07-16T05:00Z |
13.58
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-17T01:32Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.95
|
----
|
2023-07-16T06:37Z |
11.97
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-17T12:39Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
18.07
|
----
|
2023-07-16T06:39Z |
11.93
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-18T01:45Z
(-12.08h, +16.37h)
|
31.17
|
----
|
2023-07-16T07:53Z |
10.70
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-18T12:00Z
(-14.0h, +14.0h)
|
41.42
|
65.0
|
2023-07-16T12:57Z |
5.63
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-17T12:59Z
|
18.40
|
71.25
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.16667 - 6.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-15T00:00Z
|
8.08
|
----
|
2023-07-12T02:59Z |
60.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-15T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
20.08
|
60.0
|
2023-07-12T12:43Z |
51.20
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T10:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.95
|
----
|
2023-07-12T13:46Z |
50.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T06:13Z
|
-9.70
|
----
|
2023-07-12T15:26Z |
48.48
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T16:02Z
(-10.93h, +15.91h)
|
0.12
|
----
|
2023-07-12T15:30Z |
48.42
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T16:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
0.08
|
60.0
|
2023-07-12T17:00Z |
46.92
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T12:51Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.07
|
----
|
2023-07-12T17:03Z |
46.87
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T14:49Z
(-14.2h, +7.2h)
|
-1.10
|
96.0
|
2023-07-12T20:42Z |
43.22
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-15T02:07Z
|
10.20
|
----
|
2023-07-13T07:01Z |
32.90
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T20:50Z
|
4.92
|
----
|
2023-07-13T07:05Z |
32.83
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T06:05Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-9.83
|
----
|
2023-07-13T07:09Z |
32.77
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T14:19Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.60
|
----
|
2023-07-13T07:10Z |
32.75
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-14T17:01Z
|
1.10
|
72.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.28571 - 5.57143
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-13T15:49Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery (data gap during event in STEREO A as it travels out in the field of view). The source of this CME is a double ribbon flare near AR13366 and plage region 13358 and associated filament eruption starting around 2023-07-10T03:20Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 131, 304, and 171. The associated filament is very clearly seen in GOES SUVI 304 as well. Arrival signature: Clear interplanetary shock consisting of magnetic field enhancement from 7 nT to 14 nT, rapid increase in ACE particle density, and rapid but relatively small increases in solar wind speed and temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-13T06:00Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
-9.82
|
50.0
|
2023-07-10T10:00Z |
77.82
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-13T00:28Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-15.35
|
----
|
2023-07-10T13:40Z |
74.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T09:41Z
(-8.09h, +11.46h)
|
-30.13
|
----
|
2023-07-10T14:20Z |
73.48
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T23:00Z
|
-16.82
|
----
|
2023-07-10T14:40Z |
73.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-21.82
|
60.0
|
2023-07-10T19:13Z |
68.60
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T22:13Z
(-4.8h, +7.3h)
|
-17.60
|
100.0
|
2023-07-10T23:19Z |
64.50
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-13T14:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-1.82
|
60.0
|
2023-07-11T01:55Z |
61.90
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T12:12Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-27.62
|
----
|
2023-07-11T06:39Z |
57.17
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T22:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.72
|
----
|
2023-07-11T06:40Z |
57.15
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-13T01:15Z
|
-14.57
|
----
|
2023-07-11T06:48Z |
57.02
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T23:15Z
|
-16.57
|
----
|
2023-07-11T06:50Z |
56.98
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-12T22:33Z
|
-17.27
|
67.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.16667 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-06T09:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME is a very faint potential partial halo seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 difference imagery. The potential source of this CME is the filament eruption/double ribbon flare and associated brightening and dimming seen to the SE near AR's 13358 and 13359 starting around 2023-07-06T05:36Z. A post-eruptive arcade is visible between 06:00Z and 07:00Z. Due to the faintness of this event, high speculation is present. No clear arrival detected across all solar wind parameters, but we are checking with LASSOS team.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-09T07:59Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-06T20:56Z |
59.05
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-09T07:05Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-06T21:50Z |
57.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-09T19:14Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-07T07:28Z |
59.77
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-09T10:52Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-07T07:29Z |
51.38
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-09T11:17Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-04T04:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Complex partial halo CME comprised of multiple embedded fronts seen mostly south in SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs but brightest in STEREO A COR2. The CME appears to contain a wide bulk and a very wide faint shock present in the northeast. Likely associated with an eruption near the vicinity of AR3359 (S22E24) seen best as a spray in SDO 193/171 starting shortly before 03:00Z as well as large-scale brightening in SDO 304 seen near 04:00Z. A broad area of large-scale post-eruptive arcades are seen back towards the northeast after the eruption, particularly in SDO 193. Data gaps due to a STEREO A campaign limits analysis of this event. No clear CME arrivals on July 6-8.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-07T04:27Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-04T13:24Z |
63.05
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-06T22:33Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-04T13:43Z |
56.83
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-04T15:12Z |
62.80
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T08:25Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-04T15:37Z |
64.80
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-04T18:05Z |
53.92
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T14:43Z
(-12.61h, +17.24h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-04T19:43Z |
67.00
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-06T23:12Z
(-4.6h, +5.1h)
|
----
|
100.0
|
2023-07-04T20:34Z |
50.63
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T07:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-07-05T00:07Z |
54.88
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T07:09Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
80.0
|
2023-07-05T17:14Z |
37.92
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T06:33Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-06T07:24Z |
23.15
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T04:01Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-06T07:26Z |
20.58
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-07T05:05Z
|
----
|
76.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.71429 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-07-03T22:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME seen to the east in SOHO LASCO C2 during a STEREO A COR2 data gap, likely associated with a C8.9-class solar flare and simultaneous eruption from the vicinity of AR3360, seen best in SDO 304. After the brightening, a jet of plasma is seen being ejected from the region towards the east. No clear arrival detected across all solar wind parameters, but we are checking with LASSOS team.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-08T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-07-04T14:39Z |
96.35
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-08T15:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-30T11:20Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide but faint asymmetrical possibly partial halo CME in the NE in both coronagraphs, seen at start and end in FOV of COR2A before and after the nighttime data gap. Likely source is a slow developing dimming NE of AR 3354 (N15E13) in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 after 2023-06-27T20Z and a faintly seen filament eruption happening at the same time in AIA/EUVI A 304. Arrival signature is very weak. It is characterized by separation of magnetic field components, as well as an increase in speed and magnetic field intensity from 4 nT to 8 nT.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-07-01T07:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
19.67
|
----
|
2023-06-28T01:17Z |
58.05
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-01T04:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
17.58
|
----
|
2023-06-28T16:26Z |
42.90
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-30T20:46Z
|
9.43
|
----
|
2023-06-28T17:00Z |
42.33
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-01T02:48Z
(-9.0h, +10.0h)
|
15.47
|
79.0
|
2023-06-29T01:25Z |
33.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-07-01T02:52Z
|
15.53
|
79.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.33333
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-26T12:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-29T08:20Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: There was a significant SOHO data gap during initial real-time analysis of this CME. This CME is visible to the N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source appears to be a filament eruption visible to the NE in SDO/AIA 304 with associated dimming signature in SDO/AIA 193, and moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 171. The filament is slow to fully erupt, potentially causing multiple fronts to appear in the coronagraphs. Arrival signature is weak, possibly indicating a glancing blow CME arrival, characterized by separation of magnetic field components, increase in speed and magnetic field intensity from 5 nT to 8 nT and a temporary drop in temperature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-30T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
15.67
|
----
|
2023-06-27T20:31Z |
35.82
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-30T00:00Z
|
15.67
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-23T00:39:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large mostly faint CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 and after a data gap in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The source is an M4.8 class flare from AR13341 (S15E40) with southward deflection from the source. The flare is associated with brightening from a region to the south of the active region seen best in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2023-06-22T23:40Z with dimming around the same time seen in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211. Additionally, there is an EUV wave and moving/opening field lines visible to the SE in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-26T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-23T18:38Z |
65.37
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-25T16:10Z
(-11.69h, +12.82h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-23T19:08Z |
45.03
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-27T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2023-06-25T06:20Z |
41.67
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-26T09:23Z
|
----
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-20T17:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large CME visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is the X1.1 class flare from AR13341 peaking at 2023-06-20T17:09Z associated with a widespread EUV wave from the Eastern side of the disk towards the central meridian of the Earth-facing disk (best seen in SDO/AIA 211 and 193), as well as dimming (visible in SDO/AIA 193) directed towards the NW of the source location. A post-eruptive arcade follows the eruption which is best seen in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2023-06-20T17:45Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: There is an arrival of HSS on June 23. I doubt that we see a CME arrival in late June 24. The field components look similar (especially B_y) before and after the approximated arrival. The higher magnetic field strength can occur due to some form of compression (seems like the average speed in this interval is higher than the previous).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-24T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-20T19:31Z |
78.48
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-22T18:21Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-20T21:00Z |
45.35
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-23T13:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-06-21T00:36Z |
60.40
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-23T12:35Z
(-11.02h, +14.4h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-21T01:48Z |
58.78
|
----
|
CMEFM v.0.1
|
Garrett Imhoff (Other) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-22T09:18Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-21T09:42Z |
23.60
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-23T05:01Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-21T09:43Z |
43.30
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-23T06:02Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-17T17:57:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Erupting filament seen on the northwest quadrant best seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery without a definitive CME in coronagraph imagery. The filament lifts off from 2023-06-17T17:57Z to 2023-06-17T20:35Z with multiple fronts seen disappearing, likely towards the observing spacecraft.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-23T01:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-06-18T20:15Z |
100.75
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-23T01:00Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-09T17:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the associated M2.5 flare to the east of AR 13331 (S22E48, east of AR location of S22E38) and the associated eruption seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with dimming seen even more to the East of the flare (and AR) location after 2023-06-09T17:08Z and post-eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-06-09T18:00Z. Update: This CME may have been detected at STEREO A on 2023-06-13T08:00Z, but we do not believe a signature was observed at L1 by ACE or DSCOVR.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-13T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-10T00:00Z |
73.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-14T03:39Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-06-11T09:41Z |
65.97
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-13T14:19Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-08T21:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME SW in both coronagraphs with the source a mid-size area, likely filament, eruption centered around S35W30 seen in AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195 imagery as dimming and high rising post-eruptive arcades starting around 2023-06-08T20:00Z. There is an accompanying type II radio emission likely associated with this eruption.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-12T01:41Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-09T13:27Z |
60.23
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-12T07:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-09T18:26Z |
61.07
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-12T02:31Z
(-1.7h, +2.5h)
|
----
|
16.0
|
2023-06-10T00:23Z |
50.13
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-12T03:54Z
|
----
|
16.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-07T07:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the southeast in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 which is associated with a quickly ejecting filament eruption from a minor filament sitting just under AR3327 seen best in GOES 284 and SDO 193/171/304 with liftoff around 2023-06-07T06:30Z. The eruption has two footpoints, one closer to AR3327 (S25E42) and one centered around S30E30. The arrival signature starting on 2023-06-10T23:09Z is likely a stream interaction region, not an iCME. It is characterized by a sharp jump in B total, accompanied by shock-like fast oscillations of magnetic field components. Plasma parameters are not indicative of a CME arrival: a very gradual increase in solar wind speed (300 to 400 km/s) and no shocks in density and temperature. There also may be SSBC around the start of 2023-06-11. From LASSOS team discussion: this appears to be a SIR.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-10T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-07T13:22Z |
73.63
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-10T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-07T15:12Z |
74.80
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-10T16:30Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-06T03:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a dimming region visible in SDO AIA 193 near N12E60 starting around 2023-06-06T03:00Z. Field line movement is visible off the E/NE limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 03:20Z, with post eruptive brightening visible in SDO AIA 131 and 304 starting around 04:00Z. Finally, post-eruptive arcades are visible from the eruption site in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 07:24Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-09T15:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-06-06T12:54Z |
74.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-09T15:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-07T22:25Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the southwest in all coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2). Leading edge is faint and wide. Source is a large filament eruption seen spanning from about S32W10 to S10W50 in SDO AIA 304 starting at about 2023-06-04T09:00Z (Centered at S25W30). Post-eruptive dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193 along the southwest quadrant of the Sun at 09:27Z, and ejecta can be seen off the southwest limb in SDO AIA 171 at 09:42Z. The filament can also be seen erupting in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 starting at 08:25Z/8:15Z, respectively. From LASSOS team discussion: this signature is likely a flank arrival of a CME passing West of Earth.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-07T13:14Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-9.18
|
----
|
2023-06-04T17:34Z |
76.85
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-07T02:21Z
|
-20.07
|
----
|
2023-06-04T19:00Z |
75.42
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-07T07:53Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-14.53
|
----
|
2023-06-04T19:05Z |
75.33
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-07T08:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-13.93
|
----
|
2023-06-04T19:07Z |
75.30
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-07T10:30Z
(-6.0h, +6.08h)
|
-11.92
|
62.5
|
2023-06-04T19:57Z |
74.47
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-08T03:30Z
|
5.08
|
----
|
2023-06-04T21:20Z |
73.08
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 2.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-08T07:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
8.58
|
30.0
|
2023-06-05T12:12Z |
58.22
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-07T14:25Z
|
-8.00
|
46.25
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 4.2
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-30T17:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-03T21:05Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint, slow, loop-like CME seen to the west-northwest in SOHO C2, C3 and appearing slightly brighter in STEREO A COR2 in the same direction. The source is unclear, and thus simulation results are fairly speculative, but measurements indicate some confidence in an Earth-facing source on the Sun between longitudes 20 and 30 degrees. Possibly associated with brightening and dimming seen on the Earth-facing disk early on 2023-05-30 near N00W40, or with a minor eruption near the vicinity of AR3319 with westward deflection. Arrival signature: increase of magnetic field and rotation of components. From LASSOS discussion: there could be two CME arrivals in this signature - one late on 6/3, then another on 6/4 lasting into 6/6, with the
interaction region between the two CMEs around 2023-06-04T19:30Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-04T03:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.92
|
----
|
2023-05-31T13:48Z |
79.28
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-04T07:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
9.92
|
----
|
2023-05-31T18:32Z |
74.55
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-04T05:00Z
|
7.92
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-29T02:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. This is the first of multiple fronts seen in coronagraph imagery, which were caused by several consecutive filament eruptions/a filament erupting in multiple stages on the Earth-facing disk. At about 2023-05-29T01:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 304, the large filament is seen breaking near AR13318 (N25W20 at the time) (no flare had occurred, however) and the first segment begins to lift off. From LASSOS team discussion: there is no arrival on 6/1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-06-01T17:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-05-29T21:19Z |
67.68
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-06-01T17:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-25T15:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME which appears to be associated with an M1.1-class solar flare and subsequent eruption. The eruption seems to have footpoints centered on the flare located near S25W06 as well as the vicinity of AR3310 (S20W28).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-30T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-05-25T20:40Z |
99.33
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-30T00:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-22T14:09:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the southeast in coronagraph imagery that disappears before leaving the C2 field of view; it is associated with a M1.9-class flare, type II sweep, and erupting loop seen best in GOES 16/18 284 near S40E20.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-25T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
15.0
|
2023-05-23T12:45Z |
55.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-25T20:00Z
|
----
|
15.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-17T16:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 6.0
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption near AR 3309 and 3303 starting around 2023-05-17T15:10Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171 imagery and begin to form around 16:20. Additionally, post eruptive dimming is observed surrounding the eruption starting at 16:30Z. Arrival signature per discussion with the LASSOS team: Likely no iCME embedded in the HSS (the signature on the morning of 05-21 could be an iCME but is more likely the heliospheric plasma sheet embedded in the high speed stream continuing from 05-19.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-21T23:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-05-19T20:02Z |
51.47
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-21T23:30Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-11T09:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME West in SOHO coronagraph, possibly associated with the 2.1M-class flare from AR 3294 (S07W38) and with the associated eruption with dimming and EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2023-05-11T08:56Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-15T01:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-05-11T19:25Z |
77.58
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-14T22:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-05-13T12:42Z |
33.80
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-14T23:45Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-12T05:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.37
CME Note: Large halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Source is M4.2 flare from AR13296. Large EUV wave and dimming seen across the disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. ARRIVAL SIGNATURES at L1 and STEREO A, confirmed by LASSOS team as shock and iCME.
-L1: 2023-05-12T05:48Z. Arrival signature is likely the CME shock arrival characterized by an abrupt jump of magnetic field to over 13 nT and of solar wind speed from 480 km/s to 560 km/s accompanied by the jump in ion temperature and density and some rotation of magnetic field components.
-STEREO: 2023-05-12T01Z Arrival is signified by a sudden increase in Btotal to 13 nT, accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed to 900 km/s and an increase in ion density. No temperature data is available). The arrival at STEREO A is unexpectedly several hours before the CME arrival at L1.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-11T01:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-28.70
|
----
|
2023-05-09T20:14Z |
57.57
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-12T00:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.22
|
----
|
2023-05-09T20:15Z |
57.55
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T13:34Z
|
-16.23
|
----
|
2023-05-09T21:30Z |
56.30
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T12:19Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.48
|
----
|
2023-05-09T22:07Z |
55.68
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T06:00Z
|
-23.80
|
90.0
|
2023-05-10T01:59Z |
51.82
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T20:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-9.80
|
70.0
|
2023-05-10T13:47Z |
40.02
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T11:01Z
|
-18.78
|
----
|
2023-05-10T16:42Z |
37.10
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T15:47Z
|
-14.02
|
----
|
2023-05-10T16:44Z |
37.07
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T15:02Z
(-4.35h, +9.85h)
|
-14.77
|
100.0
|
2023-05-10T22:47Z |
31.02
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T13:44Z
|
-16.07
|
86.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.4
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-11T18:00Z
|
-11.80
|
----
|
2023-05-11T05:43Z |
24.08
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-07T23:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-09T22:06Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.37
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent long duration M1.6 flare from AR 3296 starting around 2023-05-07T22:15Z in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at the time of the eruption with post eruptive dimming and arcades visible starting around 23:45Z in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery. The arrival signature at L1 is characterized by jumps in B_total to >15nT, solar wind speed to >550km/s, temperature >600K, and density >15 N(cm^-3). The CME might have arrived at STEREO A at 2023-05-09T19:00Z. From LASSOS team discussion: CME shock arrives on 6/9 and arrival signature ends ~2023-05-10T21:00Z. (It is possible that there are two close arrivals in this signature, with the second shock around 2023-05-10T05Z).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-09T17:40Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.43
|
----
|
2023-05-08T14:00Z |
32.10
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-10T15:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
16.90
|
95.0
|
2023-05-08T14:30Z |
31.60
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-09T17:32Z
(-2.5h, +2.75h)
|
-4.57
|
100.0
|
2023-05-08T18:04Z |
28.03
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-09T08:39Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-13.45
|
----
|
2023-05-08T20:17Z |
25.82
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-10T07:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.90
|
----
|
2023-05-08T20:19Z |
25.78
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-10T09:00Z
|
10.90
|
90.0
|
2023-05-09T00:30Z |
21.60
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-10T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
19.90
|
75.0
|
2023-05-09T08:36Z |
13.50
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-10T01:29Z
|
3.38
|
----
|
2023-05-09T15:16Z |
6.83
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-09T23:07Z
|
1.02
|
----
|
2023-05-09T15:18Z |
6.80
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-10T02:23Z
|
4.28
|
90.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.2 - 7.2
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-07T19:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.25
|
----
|
2023-05-05T15:08Z |
46.20
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T18:45Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.42
|
----
|
2023-05-05T16:16Z |
45.07
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T16:22Z
|
3.03
|
----
|
2023-05-05T18:00Z |
43.33
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T22:40Z
(-6.65h, +9.25h)
|
9.33
|
91.0
|
2023-05-05T21:50Z |
39.50
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T16:00Z
|
2.67
|
----
|
2023-05-06T09:10Z |
28.17
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
4.67
|
60.0
|
2023-05-06T13:00Z |
24.33
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T20:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
7.17
|
75.0
|
2023-05-06T13:20Z |
24.00
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-08T00:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
11.47
|
----
|
2023-05-06T22:53Z |
14.45
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T12:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.53
|
----
|
2023-05-06T22:56Z |
14.40
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T18:49Z
|
5.48
|
75.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.85714 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-05-04T09:09:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME associated with an M3.9-class flare from Active Region 3296 seen to the northeast in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs comprised of a brighter bulk to the southeast and faint, wider shock with matching leading edge extending from the southeast to the northeast. A halo-like feature closely trailing behind this CME seen in COR2 running difference imagery may be associated with the eruption, but this is uncertain. A SOHO data gap exists over the CME propagation in the C2 FOV of view, obscuring analysis. Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). The other CME candidate for this arrival is 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-07T11:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.33
|
----
|
2023-05-04T13:47Z |
71.55
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-06T22:17Z
|
-15.05
|
----
|
2023-05-04T19:55Z |
65.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T23:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
9.67
|
60.0
|
2023-05-05T07:15Z |
54.08
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T03:42Z
|
-9.63
|
----
|
2023-05-05T15:48Z |
45.53
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-07T08:59Z
|
-4.35
|
60.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-30T01:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-03T09:12Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME visible in the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery in SWPC_CAT. The source eruption starts around 2023-04-30T19:00Z in the vicinity of AR 3289 (approximately N20E25) and AR 3292 (approximately N15E30) and can be best seen as opening field lines, faint EUV wave, and some post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines can also be seen on the limb in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also visible in the NE of STEREO A EUV 195 imagery.
Only based on field components due to suspect temperature/density data, ACE/DSCOVR may have observed a glancing blow of this CME starting around 2023-05-03T09:12. This corresponds to the start of an extended period of smooth field components but little rotation. A potential end of this CME can be 2023-05-05T06:05.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-03T20:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.80
|
----
|
2023-04-30T17:49Z |
63.38
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-03T20:00Z
|
10.80
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-29T02:23:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME with what appears to be multiple fronts seen to the S/SW in STEREO A COR2 imagery and more generally to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 & C3 imagery. There is a fairly wide source region with associated brightening and dimming ranging from -20 to -40 degrees latitude and -10 to +30 degrees longitude starting around 01:30Z. This eruption encompasses AR13288. It is best seen in SDO/AIA 193, 304, and 211 as well as STEREO A EUVI 195.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-05-01T23:13Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2023-04-29T09:26Z |
61.78
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-02T03:57Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-29T17:51Z |
58.10
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-02T22:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-29T19:14Z |
74.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-02T02:41Z
(-12.0h, +9.5h)
|
----
|
97.0
|
2023-04-29T21:50Z |
52.85
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-01T22:54Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-29T22:34Z |
48.33
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-02T08:42Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-30T14:10Z |
42.53
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-02T02:45Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-30T14:11Z |
36.57
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-01T21:47Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-30T15:27Z |
30.33
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-01T09:12Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-30T15:32Z |
17.67
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-05-02T02:21Z
|
----
|
68.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-27T02:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME NE in SOHO (covered by nighttime data gap in STEREO). Source: large filament eruption with extensive dimming (N10E55) SW of AR 3289 starting ~01:58Z seen in AIA 304, 194 and EUVI A 195 after the night time data gap.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-30T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-27T15:45Z |
56.25
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-29T16:15Z
(-2.5h, +3.5h)
|
----
|
9.0
|
2023-04-27T20:02Z |
44.22
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-29T13:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
25.0
|
2023-04-28T13:32Z |
23.47
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-29T17:45Z
|
----
|
17.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-24T14:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption centered around S35W25 starting around 2023-04-24T13:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An EUV wave is visible at this time in SDO AIA 193, with post eruptive loops forming around 14:00Z. Post eruptive dimming is also visible shortly following the eruption.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-27T07:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-24T17:39Z |
62.15
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-27T10:03Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-24T20:15Z |
61.80
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-27T06:19Z
(-4.7h, +5.2h)
|
----
|
87.0
|
2023-04-24T20:54Z |
57.42
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-27T19:36Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-25T05:27Z |
62.15
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-26T22:11Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-25T05:30Z |
40.68
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-27T05:00Z
(-12.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2023-04-25T06:00Z |
47.00
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-27T19:04Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-25T10:42Z |
56.37
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-27T14:08Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-25T10:44Z |
51.40
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-27T10:01Z
|
----
|
73.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T17:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-23T19:05Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.08
|
----
|
2023-04-21T20:50Z |
44.17
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-23T20:35Z
|
3.58
|
----
|
2023-04-21T22:35Z |
42.42
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-23T19:36Z
(-8.6h, +16.1h)
|
2.60
|
100.0
|
2023-04-21T23:44Z |
41.27
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 8.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-24T02:00Z
|
9.00
|
80.0
|
2023-04-22T00:58Z |
40.03
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-24T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
12.00
|
----
|
2023-04-22T12:30Z |
28.50
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.5
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-24T03:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
10.00
|
99.0
|
2023-04-22T14:24Z |
26.60
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-24T00:02Z
|
7.03
|
92.25
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.28571 - 7.64286
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-24T03:00Z
|
10.00
|
90.0
|
2023-04-23T13:16Z |
3.73
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-16T00:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial northern halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 (very faintly in C3) and covered fully by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. One possible source is the long filament (or two parallel filaments) erupting between ARs 3277, 3273 and 3280 and stretching approximately from N30W20 to S09W55 as seen in AIA 193/304, EUVI A 195. Eruption starts at ~2023-04-15T22:30Z and is seen as dimming along the filament channel centered at ~N15W35 and more central dimming at N20W20. There are also post-eruptive arcades centered at N25W30.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-20T10:56Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-16T16:44Z |
90.20
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-19T22:30Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2023-04-17T12:57Z |
57.55
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-20T13:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2023-04-17T16:55Z |
68.08
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-20T04:33Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-17T17:26Z |
59.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-20T06:44Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-15T12:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-19T09:22Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: Faint CME visible in the N/NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in the N/NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen lifting off in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-04-15T10:00Z. Dimming is also observed in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUVI 195.
Arrival occurs near 2023-04-19T09:22Z with extended rotations in the By and Bz magnetic field components as observed by ACE/DSCOVR. This might mean a crossing between the nose and the flank (more towards the flank). The plasma signatures are not very straightforward. This can be because the ICME arrives at the back of the SIR or because of the flank crossing. The possible end of the ICME is 2023-04-21T05:14Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-19T12:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.63
|
----
|
2023-04-15T19:23Z |
85.98
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-19T12:00Z
|
2.63
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-09T09:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Large bright CME seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. The source appears to be associated with a filament eruption (best seen in SDO/AIA 304) followed by a large area of dimming (best seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 211) and post-eruptive arcade (SDO/AIA 171). The eruption looks like it could stretch across multiple longitudes (~50 to 90+).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-13T08:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2023-04-09T21:43Z |
82.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-13T08:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-04-01T00:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and very faintly in C3, not seen in STEREO A COR2 b/c of a nighttime data gap. Source is likely a faint eruption of a filament stretching from AR 3267 near the STA-facing disk center to ~E55N20 and very roughly centered around S5E45, seen very faintly in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 starting 2023-03-31T23:25Z .
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-03T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-04-02T00:54Z |
25.10
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-03T02:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-03-30T21:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Minor, faint, but wide eruption first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-30T21:12Z in the southwest, visible in both the SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The source appears to be associated with a minor eruption from AR3262 located near S19W40 and dimming seen best in SDO 193, though the CME's leading edge quickly disappears before exiting the field of view, and the CME itself is too diffuse to reliably pair images between SOHO and STEREO A well. As such, there is significant uncertainty in the width and velocity parameters associated with the measurements.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-04-04T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-03-31T13:26Z |
92.57
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-03T04:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-03-31T16:32Z |
59.47
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-04-03T19:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-03-20T14:42:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright, wide and asymmetrical shape CME seen to the NE in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The eruption is characterized by an erupting sigmoid/S-shaped structure centered around N27E20, though dimming and an EUV wave signature is limited to longitudes closer to 30-50 degrees east. On arrival signature from Tarik Salman, LASSOS: background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s)-a possible reason for this ICME not to have an associated shock. The start of the magnetic flux rope likely coincides with the enhancement in the total field and drop in density and the end of it is around 2023-04-24T09Z (based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent)
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-03-23T17:44Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.57
|
----
|
2023-03-20T17:26Z |
63.73
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T11:20Z
(-5.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.17
|
87.0
|
2023-03-20T17:45Z |
63.42
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T04:47Z
|
-4.38
|
----
|
2023-03-20T19:20Z |
61.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T11:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
1.83
|
70.0
|
2023-03-21T02:15Z |
54.92
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T08:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-1.17
|
20.0
|
2023-03-21T15:43Z |
41.45
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T06:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.68
|
----
|
2023-03-22T10:41Z |
22.48
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T10:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
1.42
|
----
|
2023-03-22T10:42Z |
22.47
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T11:20Z
(-5.1h, +7.1h)
|
2.17
|
87.0
|
2023-03-22T13:06Z |
20.07
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T10:09Z
|
0.98
|
66.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-03-20T02:41:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint, wide CME to SW in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery during STEREO A data gap and campaign with limited imagery. Likely associated with a broad area of coronal restructuring, coronal dimming, destabilization, and filament eruptions seen in SDO 193, 304 starting ~2023-03-20T01:53Z between S10 to S30, W05 to W30. Arrival may be associated with CME 2023-03-20T14:42Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: start of sheath is ~2023-03-23T05Z - enhancements in total magnetic field/density. Background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s). This can be a reason there is no shock. Start of the magnetic flux rope ~13:30Z coincides with enhancement in total field and drop in density. 2023-03-24T06:50Z is the possible end time based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-03-23T03:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.17
|
----
|
2023-03-20T13:28Z |
67.70
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T01:00Z
(-6.0h, +9.0h)
|
-8.17
|
40.0
|
2023-03-21T03:45Z |
53.42
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-23T02:00Z
|
-7.17
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-03-17T10:58:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-20T22:37Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME overlaps the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-17T10:30Z to the SW. There are currently ongoing campaigns impacting the amount of available imagery for the SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting around 2023-03-17T08:50Z with full lift off by 2023-03-17T12:17Z. The filament has it's largest mass centered around S40W30, but stretches between the longitudes of 0 degrees to 40 degrees and the latitudes of -20 degrees to -50 degrees. Possible minor arrival signature includes gradual increase of total magnetic field to over 11 nT with rotation of at least two magnetic field components, possibly indicating a CME arrival/glancing blow. It is likely embedded in a HSS. Waiting for assessment from LASSOS team.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-03-21T04:00Z
|
5.38
|
----
|
2023-03-17T21:41Z |
72.93
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-21T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
5.38
|
15.0
|
2023-03-20T11:21Z |
11.27
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-21T04:00Z
|
5.38
|
15.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-03-13T10:53:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the NW in STEREO Ahead COR2 coronagraph associated with a filament eruption seen near N30E02 which erupts with significant deflection to the north and west as seen in SDO/GOES 304 imagery around 2023-03-13T09:54Z. Arrival signature notes: this arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-12T19:24Z CME, although this is less likely due to the earlier arrival at STEREO A. LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-03-16T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
28.20
|
----
|
2023-03-13T16:54Z |
34.90
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-16T00:55Z
|
21.12
|
----
|
2023-03-13T17:05Z |
34.72
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T12:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
8.20
|
30.0
|
2023-03-13T22:15Z |
29.55
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
8.20
|
50.0
|
2023-03-14T01:05Z |
26.72
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -100
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T22:00Z
|
18.20
|
60.0
|
2023-03-14T01:39Z |
26.15
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-16T02:26Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
22.63
|
----
|
2023-03-14T11:04Z |
16.73
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-16T06:38Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
26.83
|
----
|
2023-03-14T11:06Z |
16.70
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-16T02:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
22.20
|
30.0
|
2023-03-14T11:53Z |
15.92
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
19.20
|
20.0
|
2023-03-16T15:30Z |
-35.70
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T23:13Z
|
19.42
|
38.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.14286 - 5.28571
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-03-12T19:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-15T03:48Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME going South in SOHO LASCO and SSW in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a gradual eruption of complex, mostly longitudinally oriented filament centered approximately around ~S25E20 (filament seems to extend from at least S5 to S50) and is seen starting to erupt in AIA 304 and 193 around 2023-03-12T18:30Z. Possible arrival is marked by an increase in B_total from 8 nT to 22.5 nT, reaching a maximum of 26 nT at 2023-03-15T05:02Z. Accompanied by an increase in speed from approximately 420 km/s to 550 km/s, an increase in density, and increase in temperature. This arrival could alternatively be attributed to a predicted glancing blow from 2023-03-13T10:53Z CME (possibly more less likely due to the earlier observed arrival at STEREO A). LASSOS discussion summary about this signature: this is likely a strong glancing blow from a CME, with a sheath and a shock-like structure.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-03-15T12:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
8.78
|
----
|
2023-03-13T15:44Z |
36.07
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T17:10Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
13.37
|
----
|
2023-03-13T17:02Z |
34.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T18:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
14.20
|
30.0
|
2023-03-13T22:10Z |
29.63
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T13:00Z
|
9.20
|
60.0
|
2023-03-14T01:26Z |
26.37
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T08:55Z
(-9.5h, +7.0h)
|
5.12
|
70.0
|
2023-03-14T02:59Z |
24.82
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
19.20
|
20.0
|
2023-03-14T11:57Z |
15.85
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T15:26Z
|
11.63
|
45.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.33333 - 5.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-03-10T17:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-14T03:58Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Wide CME visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption stretching from S25W30 to N05W60 with liftoff starting around 2023-03-10T16:00Z. Source signature includes an EUV wave and dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery. Possible arrival signature: Weak shock characterized by rise in magnetic field strength from 8.5 nT to 13 nT along with jump in wind speed from ~315 km/s to near 390 km/s with simultaneous pileup and increase in temperature. LASSOS team: a possible weak glancing blow from a CME with a shock-like structure but no magnetic obstacle.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-03-14T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.03
|
----
|
2023-03-10T20:48Z |
79.17
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-14T10:00Z
|
6.03
|
----
|
2023-03-10T23:26Z |
76.53
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-15T00:00Z
|
20.03
|
----
|
2023-03-11T07:30Z |
68.47
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-14T08:42Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
4.73
|
----
|
2023-03-11T13:49Z |
62.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-14T01:06Z
(-7.0h, +11.0h)
|
-2.87
|
37.0
|
2023-03-11T17:34Z |
58.40
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-14T09:57Z
|
5.98
|
37.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 4.25
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-28T09:53:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Very faint CME in the NW in both coronagraphs first seen after the end of the nighttime data gap in STEREO A COR2. The start is currently covered by the data gap in SOHO LASCO but it is also faintly seen in C3 after this gap. One possible (front-sided) source could be a relatively minor eruption seen after 2023-02-28T06:19Z in AIA 304, 171, 193. In SDO AIA 304 there is a bright flare, then dark material (possibly ejecta). Brightening then dimming of area seen in GOES SUVI 284. It could be associated with a C2.5 class flare from AR 3234 at the time (N20W30). However, this faint event could also be back sided (no coronal signatures found for this).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-03-03T08:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-28T19:09Z |
60.85
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-03-03T08:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-28T04:44Z
|
18.48
|
----
|
2023-02-25T22:25Z |
35.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-28T03:21Z
|
17.10
|
----
|
2023-02-26T03:14Z |
31.02
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-28T05:45Z
|
19.50
|
----
|
2023-02-26T03:16Z |
30.98
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T20:00Z
|
9.75
|
----
|
2023-02-26T04:00Z |
30.25
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T20:00Z
(-6.0h, +12.0h)
|
9.75
|
80.0
|
2023-02-26T05:55Z |
28.33
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T20:00Z
|
9.75
|
----
|
2023-02-26T07:00Z |
27.25
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T08:12Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.05
|
----
|
2023-02-26T12:34Z |
21.68
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-28T04:35Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
18.33
|
----
|
2023-02-26T12:36Z |
21.65
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
7.75
|
70.0
|
2023-02-26T12:54Z |
21.35
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T21:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
11.72
|
----
|
2023-02-26T15:14Z |
19.02
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
12.75
|
----
|
2023-02-26T15:45Z |
18.50
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T18:10Z
(-7.6h, +6.7h)
|
7.92
|
79.0
|
2023-02-26T21:23Z |
12.87
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 8.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-28T00:00Z
|
13.75
|
----
|
2023-02-27T00:43Z |
9.53
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T22:08Z
|
11.88
|
76.3333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.375 - 6.875
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-24T20:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-26T18:43Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen mostly to the NW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2A coronagraphs. The CME is associated with an M3.7-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3229. The flare induces a large nearby filament channel to break and lift off seen best in SDO/GOES 304, but also in SDO 193 and GOES-16 195. The flare and CME are also associated with a small enhancement in 10 MeV protons observed at GOES. The likely arrival of this CME (possibly a glancing blow) is first seen at 2023-02-26T18:43Z in DSCOVR data as a rapid increase in magnetic field from 10 nT to near 20 nT as well as a simultaneous increase in solar wind speed from 470 km/s to 540 km/s and density from 10 to 20 particles/cc.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-26T06:27Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-12.27
|
----
|
2023-02-24T22:57Z |
43.77
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T03:57Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
9.23
|
----
|
2023-02-24T22:58Z |
43.75
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T18:30Z
|
-0.22
|
----
|
2023-02-24T23:35Z |
43.13
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T13:46Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.95
|
----
|
2023-02-24T23:50Z |
42.88
|
Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 9.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T18:00Z
(-6.0h, +6.0h)
|
-0.72
|
60.0
|
2023-02-25T04:14Z |
38.48
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T23:38Z
|
4.92
|
----
|
2023-02-25T04:22Z |
38.35
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T22:41Z
|
3.97
|
----
|
2023-02-25T04:24Z |
38.32
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T14:00Z
|
-4.72
|
60.0
|
2023-02-25T05:19Z |
37.40
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Cone+HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-27T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
28.28
|
70.0
|
2023-02-25T13:47Z |
28.93
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T14:03Z
(-7.583h, +7.4h)
|
-4.67
|
100.0
|
2023-02-25T21:19Z |
21.40
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
4.28
|
70.0
|
2023-02-26T12:56Z |
5.78
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T15:20Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-3.38
|
----
|
2023-02-26T14:45Z |
3.97
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-26T20:21Z
|
1.63
|
72.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 5.25 - 7.125
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-22T14:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption which stretches across the NW quadrant and lifts off around 2023-02-22T13:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 and 304 imagery. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI imagery.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-25T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-22T20:25Z |
73.58
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-25T22:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-21T02:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-24T12:08Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The CME is partially obscured by the pylon in SOHO LASCO C3. Potential source eruption starts around 2023-02-21T00:00Z and is a filament eruption characterized by movement/lift-off in SDO AIA 304, dimming in SDO AIA 193, post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 171, and opening field lines in SDO AIA 171/193. Also visible in the NW of STEREO A EUVI 195. This CME may deflect towards the south in the field of view. Arrival signature discussed by Tarik Salman (LASSOS): Possible ICME encounter starting around 2023-02-24T12:08UT. This coincides with the start of a coherent period of field components and decreasing proton density. The total magnetic field is not significantly elevated over the background. The field components have constant profiles for extended periods which can be an indication of a possible glancing blow. This ICME is also observed to be expanding at L1. A possible end of this ICME is around 2023-02-25T07:26UT.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-24T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
9.87
|
----
|
2023-02-21T18:31Z |
65.62
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-24T07:41Z
(-5.25h, +5.25h)
|
-4.45
|
16.67
|
2023-02-22T02:09Z |
57.98
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-24T14:50Z
|
2.70
|
16.67
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-17T20:23:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-20T09:52Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME associated with X2.2 flare from AR3229 (N25E65) at 17/1957UT, with an EUVI wave and with the eruption seen as dimming (as far east as -20 deg), best noticeable in STEREO A EUVI 195. The bright bulk of the CME seems to have gone in the more Eastern direction. The likely arrival of this CME is signified by a sharp increase in magnetic field to 14 nT, accompanied by a sudden jump in ion density to over 17 particles/cm^3 and of the solar wind speed from 370 to 430 km/s.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-19T14:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-19.87
|
----
|
2023-02-18T01:28Z |
56.40
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-20T09:00Z
(-12.0h, +6.0h)
|
-0.87
|
50.0
|
2023-02-18T10:00Z |
47.87
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-20T01:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-8.87
|
50.0
|
2023-02-18T12:37Z |
45.25
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-19T10:15Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-23.62
|
----
|
2023-02-18T17:12Z |
40.67
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-19T17:30Z
|
-16.37
|
----
|
2023-02-18T17:20Z |
40.53
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-20T10:30Z
|
0.63
|
----
|
2023-02-18T19:49Z |
38.05
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-19T10:14Z
(-4.2h, +9.3h)
|
-23.63
|
100.0
|
2023-02-19T02:15Z |
31.62
|
Max Kp Range: 7.0 - 9.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-20T14:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
4.13
|
----
|
2023-02-19T15:00Z |
18.87
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-20T02:56Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-6.93
|
----
|
2023-02-19T18:41Z |
15.18
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-19T23:16Z
|
-10.60
|
66.6667
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.71429 - 6.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-16T10:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery with a fairly flat front. It moves very quickly through the COR2A field of view. The source of this CME is a filament eruption from AR13216 starting around 2023-02-16T10:10Z. The eruption is most notably seen in SDO/AIA 304, 193, 171, 211, and 131 as well as STEREO A EUVI 195. A post-eruptive arcade follows the eruption as well as notable brightening around the region during this eruption.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-18T23:40Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-16T19:40Z |
52.00
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-18T23:40Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-15T02:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2023-02-14T14:23Z to 2023-02-15T09:23Z. This eruption is associated with a C5.6 flare from AR 13220 and an eruption best seen in SDO AIA 304 starting around 2023-02-15T01:00Z centered around S05E15. The eruption can also be seen with dimming in SDO AIA 193. This CME leading edge is asymmetrical and has a component directed towards the south/southeast first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-02-15T02:48Z while the rest of the CME starting at 02:12Z is directed more eastward. This eruption may be 2 simultaneous eruptions in close proximity but it is not clear if there are separate CMEs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-17T15:51Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-15T16:37Z |
47.23
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-17T21:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-15T17:46Z |
51.23
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-17T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2023-02-15T18:52Z |
47.13
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-17T20:32Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-15T21:00Z |
47.53
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-17T15:40Z
(-3.85h, +4.967h)
|
----
|
100.0
|
2023-02-15T23:57Z |
39.72
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-17T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
70.0
|
2023-02-16T12:26Z |
34.57
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-18T02:14Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-16T13:58Z |
36.27
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-18T00:18Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-16T13:59Z |
34.32
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-17T20:34Z
|
----
|
80.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.2
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-11T11:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-13T17:02Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.33
CME Note: The CME visible N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. There is a more clear bulk portion that shows filamentary structures within it and then a more faint partial halo seen more clearly in difference imagery. The source is a filament eruption from the region NE of AR13216, there is also subsequent brightening, potential flaring from AR13216 during this eruption. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS team: Arrival is marked by the enhancement of the B field over the background, accompanied by a drop in proton density and the start of a low-density period. Temperature data seems to be sensitive. A significant data gap makes it difficult to analyze the nature of field rotations. However, the rotations might not be significant due to a possible flank crossing. Due to that, at L1, the flux rope is possibly not encountered.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-13T11:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-5.93
|
----
|
2023-02-11T17:20Z |
47.70
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-13T02:32Z
|
-14.50
|
----
|
2023-02-11T20:00Z |
45.03
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-14T01:00Z
(-12.0h, +9.0h)
|
7.97
|
40.0
|
2023-02-12T06:45Z |
34.28
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-12T12:31Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-28.52
|
----
|
2023-02-12T07:00Z |
34.03
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-13T12:03Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-4.98
|
----
|
2023-02-12T07:05Z |
33.95
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-13T16:10Z
(-6.8h, +4.8h)
|
-0.87
|
58.0
|
2023-02-13T23:10Z |
-6.13
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-13T09:13Z
|
-7.82
|
49.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.75 - 6.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-10T12:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption around S20W35 that lifts off starting around 2023-02-10T08:00Z. Data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2023-02-10T11:09Z to 2023-02-10T15:23Z. This event might have been overtakend by the 2023-02-11T11:12Z CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-14T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-10T20:37Z |
91.38
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-14T16:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-08T17:06:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Very faint full halo CME seen best in SOHO C3 running difference imagery from 2023-02-08T17:00Z to 19:00Z and as northern and southern lobes in C3 white light imagery and NW/SW lobes in STEREO A COR2A imagery. May possibly be associated with an M1.6-class solar flare and subsequent eruption from AR3213 with dimming seen in SDO 193 and GOES-16 284 starting around 16:09Z. This analysis is fairly speculative.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-11T19:08Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-09T17:48Z |
49.33
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-11T18:48Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-09T20:00Z |
46.80
|
----
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-11T18:58Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-07T15:23:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the N/NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent C3.7 flare from AR 3213 (N29E06) seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A 195 and 304 imagery starting around 2023-02-07T12:30Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-10T15:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-07T20:56Z |
66.57
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-10T15:30Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-03T13:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Secondary eruption closely following behind CME: 2023-02-03T10:36Z seen to the west in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A coronagraphs. There are no secondary eruptions seen on the Earth facing-disk, but preliminary measurements suggest it too is associated with a broad area of long-lasting dimming seen in the western hemisphere as evidenced by GOES-16 284 and SDO 193.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-06T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-03T19:43Z |
70.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-06T18:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-02-03T10:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the west in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. Appears to be associated with a broad area of dimming on the western portion of the Earth-facing disk from the equator up to about 25 degrees north as seen in GOES 284 imagery starting around 08:49Z with evidence of a minor filament eruption in the northern hemisphere, though moving field lines off the northwest limb in SDO 171 suggest possible farsidedness.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-02-06T05:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-03T17:07Z |
59.88
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-06T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-02-03T19:43Z |
70.28
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-07T12:48Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-02-05T09:51Z |
50.95
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mary Aronne (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-02-06T19:56Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-20T16:12:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-23T02:59Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: CME directed mainly south in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 imagery which is embedded within CME: 2023-01-20T13:36Z. The source is a C5.3-class flare and subsequent eruption from AR3190 located near S15W13 seen in SDO 193/304/171 with brightening at the source and opening field line movement followed by a broad area of dimming to the south, east, and west. Magnetic field discontinuity indicates arrival of the interplanetary shock near 2023-01-23T02:59Z with simultaneous rapid density and velocity increases.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-23T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
15.02
|
----
|
2023-01-20T19:06Z |
55.88
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T10:36Z
(-8.6h, +10.1h)
|
7.62
|
87.0
|
2023-01-20T21:22Z |
53.62
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T18:18Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
15.32
|
20.0
|
2023-01-23T12:24Z |
-9.42
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T15:38Z
|
12.65
|
53.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 4.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-20T13:38:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Bright, wide CME with filamentary structure seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption whose filament at 2023-01-20T11:00Z was stretched from S42W25 northwest to about S30W70 (center point approximately S35W52). The eruption and post eruptive brightening is seen best in SDO 304 but also in SDO 193/171/211 occurring near 13:00Z. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, though its arrival is possibly associated with this CME.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-23T23:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-20T17:28Z |
77.53
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-20T19:06Z |
70.90
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T01:58Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-20T19:20Z |
54.63
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T00:48Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-20T19:40Z |
53.13
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T07:45Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-20T19:43Z |
60.03
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-24T01:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-20T23:24Z |
73.60
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T12:00Z
(-8.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-01-21T13:29Z |
46.52
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T12:38Z
|
----
|
20.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 4.6
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-19T11:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Super faint CME (best seen in difference imagery) E in C2/C3 and COR2A. Its source is likely the relatively minor eruption associated with M class flare from AR 3196 (N12E38) peaking at 2023-01-19T10:12Z. Eruption is seen in AIA 304 starting around 2023-01-19T10:20Z and is directed mostly southward (explaining why the CME might be deflected to the south). Eruption is also seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 as dimming (and possibly a EUV wave), with dimming mostly to the SE of the AR. Arrival observed at Earth on 2023-01-23T02:59Z is believed to be more likely associated with CME: 2023-01-20T16:12Z, but could be a combined arrival of two or more CMEs, including this one.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-22T17:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-19T19:51Z |
69.15
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-22T11:15Z
(-8.117h, +7.35h)
|
----
|
79.0
|
2023-01-20T17:15Z |
42.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Carina Alden (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-23T14:00Z
(-24.0h, +8.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2023-01-21T13:29Z |
48.52
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-22T22:05Z
|
----
|
49.5
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.33333 - 4.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M6.0 flare from AR 3191 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-15T03:20Z. Opening of field lines is visible off the eastern limb in SDO AIA 171 at this time, and post-eruptive dimming appears around 03:45Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-14T21:36Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-17T03:21Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-17.82
|
----
|
2023-01-15T17:03Z |
52.12
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-17T17:44Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
-3.43
|
----
|
2023-01-15T17:06Z |
52.07
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-17T10:34Z
|
-10.60
|
----
|
2023-01-15T21:20Z |
47.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-18T04:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
6.83
|
25.0
|
2023-01-16T00:00Z |
45.17
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-17T14:54Z
|
-6.27
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-14T21:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the W/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M4.6 flare from AR 3182 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-14T20:35Z. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 at 20:50Z and post eruptive loops start to form in SDO AIA 193 around 22:30Z. Eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-15T03:48Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-19T03:00Z
|
29.83
|
----
|
2023-01-15T13:30Z |
55.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-18T22:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
24.83
|
----
|
2023-01-15T16:07Z |
53.05
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-19T07:00Z
(-14.0h, +14.0h)
|
33.83
|
50.0
|
2023-01-15T18:24Z |
50.77
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-19T18:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
44.83
|
40.0
|
2023-01-16T00:20Z |
44.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-19T23:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
49.83
|
10.0
|
2023-01-16T00:20Z |
44.83
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-18T21:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
23.83
|
80.0
|
2023-01-16T18:30Z |
26.67
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-19T07:40Z
|
34.50
|
45.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.66667 - 4.66667
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-12T02:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-14T21:50Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.0
CME Note: Faint CME with an interesting mushroom shape - or likely two or even three very close successive CMEs NNW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely a gradual eruption(s) in and NW of AR 3185 (N20W28) seen starting around 2023-01-12T01:00Z as seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 with post-eruptive arcades near the AR and in the location NE of the AR. Arrival is likely associated with the interplanetary shock observed at L1 on 2023-01-14T21:50Z. This signature was characterized by an increase in Btotal to 11nT and solar wind speeds up to ~500 km/s. It was also accompanied by slight increases in density and temperature. Per advice from the LASSOS team, this arrival is likely a glancing blow due to the lack of a clear rotation in magnetic field components/flux rope signature.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-15T10:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
12.17
|
----
|
2023-01-12T18:45Z |
51.08
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-15T10:00Z
|
12.17
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 2.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-11T17:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This is a large, bright and wide CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The likely source is seen as clear moving/opening field lines beyond the SE limb in STEREO EUVI A 195 after 2023-01-11T16:35Z, followed by high rising post-eruptive arcades on the limb in EUVI A 195 an hour later. (Note: There also was an eruption in the SE on the Earth-facing disk seen in AIA 304 starting 2023-01-11T20:45Z (with a significant-area dimming south of the AR 3184(S13E41) seen in AIA 193) but this eruption was several hours later than the start of the CME and thus likely unrelated to it). CME was most likely backsided. This arrival is still being analyzed.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-16T05:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
2023-01-12T12:21Z |
88.65
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-16T05:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-11T09:48:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It overlaps the 2023-01-11T08:48Z CME. The source of this CME appears to be the M3.1 flare from AR13186. There is a simultaneous filament eruption seen beyond the NE limb that appears to be associated with the 2023-01-11T08:48Z CME. This CME was a candidate for the interplanetary shock observed at L1 on 2023-01-14T21:50Z, but per advice from the LASSOS team, it appeared the CME measured too fast to be responsible for the arrival signature (which did not have a dramatic increase in solar wind speeds).
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-14T13:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-12T08:00Z |
53.00
|
Max Kp Range: -- - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-14T13:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: -- - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2023-01-08T05:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Possible source: a large area eruption centered around ~S40E30 to the S or SW of AR 3182 (S17E44), seen slowly developing as a complex shape dimming (or two nearby areas of dimming) in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2023-01-08T03:30Z and happening soon after multiple middle and upper C-class flares from AR 3182 earlier in the morning.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2023-01-12T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2023-01-08T18:03Z |
83.95
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 2.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2023-01-12T06:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 2.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME Scoreboard