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CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community:

The CME Scoreboard is part of the the CME Arrival Time and Impact Working Team in the Community-wide International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment.

The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
  • submit their forecast in real-time
  • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
  • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived
Using this system:
  • Anyone can view prediction tables
  • Registered users can enter in your CME shock arrival time forecast after logging in:
    • Registered Users: Begin by finding your CME under the "Active CMEs" section, then click "Add Prediction" and select your forecasting "Method Type" from the list.
    • Power Users: If you do not see your CME listed under the "Active CMEs" section, click "Add CME" to get started (Email M. Leila Mays to request power user privileges). To enter the actual CME shock arrival time, click "Edit CME" after you are done entering your prediction(s).
    • To register for an account, please email M. Leila Mays with your name, affiliation, and email address.
  • Click here to see a list of registered methods. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details.
  • Click here for more detailed instructions.
Communication:
  • To receive periodic announcements and/or automated email notifications when a new CME is added to the CME Scoreboard, you can subscribe to our mailing list by sending an email to M. Leila Mays with your name and email.
Resources:

Active CMEs:

CME: 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E30 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-15T05:36Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-04-17T22:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-04-15T19:28Z 51.27 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-04-17T21:41Z ---- ---- 2024-04-15T19:41Z 50.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-04-19T03:19Z (-9.52h, +9.11h) ---- ---- 2024-04-15T23:23Z 75.93 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-04-18T02:00Z ---- ---- 2024-04-16T02:08Z 47.87 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-04-18T12:47Z ---- ---- 2024-04-16T04:55Z 55.87 ---- SPM Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2024-04-17T23:24Z ---- ---- 2024-04-16T04:59Z 42.42 ---- SPM2 Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) Detail
2024-04-18T06:19Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E40 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-14T10:09Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-04-17T16:00Z ---- ---- 2024-04-15T00:14Z 63.77 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-04-17T01:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-04-15T19:15Z 29.85 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-04-17T05:01Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-04-16T21:58Z ---- ---- 2024-04-15T21:58Z 24.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail

CME: 2024-04-12T02:00:00-CME-001
CME Note: Faint halo visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S15W20 with liftoff starting around 2024-04-12T00:16Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and a faint EUV wave may also be observed in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also seen south of disk center from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-04-14T16:20Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-04-12T16:20Z 48.00 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-04-14T16:49Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-04-12T17:20Z 47.48 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-04-14T15:43Z (-4.43h, +4.51h) ---- 100.0 2024-04-12T19:49Z 43.90 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-04-14T23:00Z ---- 50.0 2024-04-12T21:30Z 49.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2024-04-15T03:00Z (-4.0h, +8.0h) ---- 70.0 2024-04-12T22:48Z 52.20 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-04-15T11:48Z (-8.85h, +6.2h) ---- ---- 2024-04-12T22:50Z 60.97 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-04-15T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 75.0 2024-04-13T12:36Z 38.40 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-04-14T15:05Z (-7.67h, +7.67h) ---- ---- 2024-04-13T14:33Z 24.53 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-04-15T01:15Z ---- 73.75 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.83333 - 5.83333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-04-16T02:31Z ---- ---- 2024-04-15T16:00Z 10.52 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

CME: 2024-04-11T07:00:00-CME-001
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is unclear due to the CME's faintness. The candidate source is a filament eruption centered around N20E10, with liftoff starting around 2024-04-11T05:48Z in SDO AIA 304. The filament can be seen deflecting to the east. The eruption is also best seen as dimming in SDO AIA 193. STEREO A EUV 195/304 also observes the eruption.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-04-14T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 25.0 2024-04-12T12:24Z 54.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-04-14T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-04-12T17:29Z 42.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-04-13T20:34Z (-9.38h, +10.97h) ---- ---- 2024-04-13T00:15Z 20.32 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-04-14T06:38Z ---- 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-04-13T22:58Z (-8.67h, +8.67h) ---- ---- 2024-04-13T14:30Z 8.47 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail

Past CMEs:

CME: 2024-03-25T15:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Three-part CME with somewhat faint leading edge seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption centered at N27E50 from Active Region 13622. Opening field lines, a rising loop, and post eruptive-arcades can be seen in SDO AIA 171/193 at 2024-03-25T14:21Z. Post-eruptive brightening seen in SDO AIA 304 at 14:18Z. Widely opening field lines and small area of brightening seen in GOES SUVI 284 at 14:20Z. No clear arrival signature seen in solar wind at L1, however slight increases in signatures, around 2024-03-29T20:00 - 22:00 could indicate a compression zone and therefore a possible a CME glancing blow at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-29T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-03-26T13:12Z 72.80 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-29T14:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-23T01:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
CME Note: Partial halo to the NW following the front of the earlier 2024-03-23T01:25Z CME, with a faint shock front portion seen to SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 from 2024-03-22T18:23Z to 2024-03-23T03:23Z, after which the end of this event is seen for a few frames before exiting the field of view. A possible source could be the slower developing dimming to the SSW of Active Region 3614 (N25E07) following the deep northern dimming to the NE of this Active Region. Alternative source could be the concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:25Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by significant sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, eventually reaching 33nT. There is a corresponding jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-24T17:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 3.75 ---- 2024-03-23T16:51Z 21.32 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-24T12:30Z (-5.58h, +5.58h) -1.67 ---- 2024-03-23T17:21Z 20.82 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-03-24T16:09Z (-2.22h, +1.97h) 1.98 ---- 2024-03-23T18:33Z 19.62 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-03-24T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.83 ---- 2024-03-23T20:26Z 17.73 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-03-24T08:59Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.18 ---- 2024-03-23T21:28Z 16.70 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-03-25T07:41Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 17.52 ---- 2024-03-23T21:29Z 16.68 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-03-24T21:34Z 7.40 ---- 2024-03-23T22:02Z 16.13 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-03-24T22:32Z (-6.0h, +9.0h) 8.37 100.0 2024-03-24T01:00Z 13.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-24T12:00Z -2.17 80.0 2024-03-24T02:40Z 11.50 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2024-03-25T09:40Z (-17.0h, +17.0h) 19.50 ---- 2024-03-24T07:21Z 6.82 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
IZMIRAN Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) Detail
2024-03-24T20:00Z 5.83 90.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.33333 - 7.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 8.0
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME first seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 (appearing a few timestamps before the second northern front of 2024-03-23T01:48Z CME and earlier than the faint full halo to the SW). The CME is associated with the X1.1-class flare from Active Region 3614 centered ~N25E07 and with associated eruption seen as EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and as a NE-SW oriented large area of dimming/post eruptive arcades centered ~around Active Region 3614. X-class flare was accompanied by/contributed to by concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:48Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, reaching 33nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from about 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-24T17:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 3.75 ---- 2024-03-23T16:51Z 21.32 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-24T11:19Z (-5.58h, +5.58h) -2.85 ---- 2024-03-23T17:18Z 20.87 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-03-24T16:09Z (-2.22h, +1.97h) 1.98 ---- 2024-03-23T18:21Z 19.82 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-03-24T07:46Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.40 ---- 2024-03-23T21:30Z 16.67 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-03-25T06:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 16.53 ---- 2024-03-23T21:31Z 16.65 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-03-24T21:01Z 6.85 ---- 2024-03-23T22:01Z 16.15 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-03-24T16:49Z (-5.41h, +5.41h) 2.65 ---- 2024-03-23T22:26Z 15.73 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-03-24T22:32Z (-6.0h, +9.0h) 8.37 100.0 2024-03-24T01:00Z 13.17 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-25T00:00Z 9.83 ---- 2024-03-24T01:20Z 12.83 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2024-03-24T23:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.83 ---- 2024-03-24T02:07Z 12.05 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-03-24T12:00Z -2.17 80.0 2024-03-24T02:41Z 11.48 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2024-03-25T15:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 24.83 90.0 2024-03-24T12:32Z 1.63 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-24T20:11Z 6.02 90.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.42857 - 7.57143
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-21T18:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 3614 (~N30E30) starting around 2024-03-21T18:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at this time in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well, with post eruptive dimming visible around 19:00Z in SDO AIA 193. This CME was likely swept into the front of 2024-03-23T01:25Z and 2024-03-23T01:48Z O-type CMEs.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-25T17:00Z ---- ---- 2024-03-22T07:14Z 81.77 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-25T21:32Z (-11.91h, +13.85h) ---- ---- 2024-03-22T14:14Z 79.30 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-03-25T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-03-22T16:25Z 73.58 Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 2.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-25T18:50Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 2.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the S/SE in coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. A large western portion of the filament appears to deflect south/southeast, which is likely associated with this event. Dimming is visible from the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 shortly after the filament lifts-off and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z, which also likely stems from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-21T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.83 ---- 2024-03-17T16:37Z 81.22 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-21T05:53Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.05 ---- 2024-03-17T17:43Z 80.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-20T18:00Z -7.83 ---- 2024-03-17T18:51Z 78.98 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-03-20T18:26Z (-13.4h, +13.4h) -7.40 ---- 2024-03-18T09:29Z 64.35 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-03-21T04:36Z (-9.6h, +9.6h) 2.77 80.0 2024-03-18T09:34Z 64.27 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
IZMIRAN Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) Detail
2024-03-21T00:17Z -1.55 80.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.25 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-03-21T01:51Z (-8.88h, +6.71h) 0.02 ---- 2024-03-20T22:48Z 3.03 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

CME: 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-21T07:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 5.35 ---- 2024-03-17T16:57Z 80.88 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-21T05:53Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 4.05 ---- 2024-03-17T17:43Z 80.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-20T11:07Z (-8.77h, +6.6h) -14.72 ---- 2024-03-17T18:51Z 78.98 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-03-20T20:00Z -5.83 ---- 2024-03-17T18:54Z 78.93 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-03-21T11:38Z (-21.0h, +21.0h) 9.80 ---- 2024-03-18T09:25Z 64.42 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-03-21T01:33Z -0.28 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.33333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-14T09:23:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Source of this CME is an eruption of a large northern filament seen after 2024-03-14T08:00Z. The erupting filament stretches from ~N50E15 to N30W15. The eruption is best seen in EUV STEREO A 304/195 and SDO AIA 304/171/193. There are a dimming area (mostly to the north) and post-eruptive arcades centered around ~(N35W05). No arrival/glancing blow signature in solar wind.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-17T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-03-14T13:30Z 73.50 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-17T15:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-10T23:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Second of two overlapping consecutive faint CMEs in the NW, partially obscured by a pylon in SOHO LASCO C3 and not seen in STEREO A COR2 because of a data gap. One possible source could be an eruption east of AR 3603 centered around N13W23 seen after 2024-03-10T22:45Z in AIA 304/193/171, with small-area but deep dimming and localized bright post-eruptive arcades. Alternative source could be a very minor opening of field lines on/behind the NW limb after 2024-03-10T21:30Z seen in AIA 193. No CME arrival signature in solar wind.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-14T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-03-11T19:45Z 62.25 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-14T10:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-10T12:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Super faint partial halo CME seen to the WNW in a few early image frame of coronagraphs, with the source possibly the short-duration M7.4 class flare from AR 3599 (S13W35) and the associated dimming seen north and even NE of this AR in AIA 193/EUVI A 195 starting after 2024-03-10T12:15Z. This faint CME is mostly seen in difference imagery in a few early frames in SOHO LASCO C2, even more faintly in COR2A and is not seen in C3. No CME arrival signature in solar wind.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-14T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-03-10T20:35Z 80.42 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-13T23:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2024-03-11T11:20Z 60.33 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-14T02:20Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-03-05T21:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The CME appears to have a bright core in initial frames before fading as it progresses throughout the SOHO LASCO C3 field of view. The source is a filament eruption centered around S40E35, but stretches between S25E20 to S55E50 with a southern deflection as it erupts. The eruption begins around 2024-03-06T20:00Z in SDO/AIA and GOES SUVI 304 with associated dimming visible in SDO/AIA 193, brightening in SDO/AIA 304, and minor moving/opening field lines in GOES SUVI 284. A brief post-eruptive arcade is also visible in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 starting around 2024-03-06T00:00Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-08T21:00Z ---- ---- 2024-03-06T11:21Z 57.65 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.67
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-03-09T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 70.0 2024-03-06T21:36Z 56.40 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-03-09T03:56Z ---- 70.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.335
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-03-09T08:48Z (-6.08h, +8.77h) ---- ---- 2024-03-07T17:15Z 39.55 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

CME: 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T08:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: High southern latitude CME visible in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source is an eruption near AR 3591 (S35E10) with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2024-02-28T20:15Z. Opening/rising field lines and post eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 171/193. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 until the CME is almost out of the field of view due to a data gap 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-04T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 15.22 ---- 2024-02-29T19:29Z 61.30 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-04T00:00Z 15.22 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-28T17:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-03T08:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 5.67
CME Note: Bright CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 associated with a M1.5-class flare from AR 3590 (N19W59) starting at 2024-02-28T16:24Z. Dimming visible in SDO AIA 193, rising loops and post-eruptive arcades are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and flare with long-lasting post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 94/131. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-28T13:23Z to 2024-02-29T03:09Z. Arrival note: Characterized initially as a jump in Bt from around 3nT to 5nT, with more notable spikes in density, temperature, and speed from around 280 km/s to 320 km/s. Bt slowly rose to around 19nT by 2024-03-03T11:00Z with a long, sustained southward Bz reaching -16nT. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-03T05:00Z -3.78 20.0 2024-02-29T09:56Z 70.85 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-04T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 21.22 ---- 2024-02-29T16:31Z 64.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-02T16:44Z -16.05 ---- 2024-02-29T17:07Z 63.67 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-03-03T09:14Z 0.45 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 3.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-28T09:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: A relatively faint partial halo CME in the E associated with a faint EUV wave in AIA 193. Its clear source is a C5.1 class flare peaking at 2024-02-28T09:09Z centered (~S15E31)(there is no associated active region). The CME is also associated with a type II radio burst, faint dimming and tightly woven bright but small-area post-eruptive arcades. The CME overlaps with one or two more CMEs to the north of it. A distinct arrival is seen at L1 at 2024-03-03T08:47Z. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-02T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- 2024-02-28T17:38Z 87.15 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-02T06:01Z (-8.26h, +10.59h) ---- 2024-02-29T15:11Z 65.60 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-03-02T11:42Z ---- 2024-02-29T19:02Z 61.75 ---- SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-03-02T23:00Z ---- 2024-03-01T13:16Z 43.52 ---- WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-03-02T13:55Z ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-27T11:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: CME seen to the S in all coronagraphs. Reanalysis of this CME from the initial entry finds the source to be front-sided, sourced at a filament centered around S38E02 (spanning approximatley S48W14 to S32E10) at 2024-02-27T08:01Z when it began to lift off best seen in SDO AIA 304. The filament fades moreso than it is observed leaving the disk, but it is the best candidate source and aligned well with coronagraph analysis between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-03-02T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-02-28T16:52Z 63.13 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-03-02T08:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-25T09:00Z 16.73 ---- 2024-02-22T03:17Z 60.98 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.67
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-24T16:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.47 ---- 2024-02-22T13:46Z 50.50 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-24T14:44Z -1.53 ---- 2024-02-22T14:49Z 49.45 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-02-24T15:16Z (-3.45h, +4.93h) -1.00 ---- 2024-02-22T14:56Z 49.33 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-02-25T12:19Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 20.05 65.0 2024-02-23T08:30Z 31.77 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-02-25T03:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 10.73 30.0 2024-02-24T16:00Z 0.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-02-24T23:50Z 7.57 47.5 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.8 - 4.734
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-16T03:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is visible to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption spanning N40W05 to N25W35 which begins to lift-off around 2024-02-16T02:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible from this region in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops visible in all SDO wavelengths starting around 2024-02-16T05:00Z. There is no clear signature of this CME arrival/glancing blow at L1. There is a minor unclear arrival signature between 2024-02-20T09:15Z and 11Z, with a relatively smooth rotation of magnetic field components, mainly Bz, and an increase in Bt from around 5 nT to 9.5 nT, however this is likely a signature of a streamer blowout.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-19T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-02-16T16:37Z 67.38 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-19T19:00Z ---- ---- 2024-02-16T17:11Z 73.82 Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-19T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2024-02-17T12:01Z 56.98 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-19T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2024-02-18T05:44Z 35.27 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2024-02-19T18:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h) ---- 30.0 2024-02-19T00:15Z 17.75 Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-02-19T17:24Z ---- 26.6667 --- --- Max Kp Range: 1.6 - 3.6
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Partial halo shock to the north with bulk portion to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M9.0 flare from AR13576 starting at 2024-02-10T22:56Z with clear deflection NW seen as dimming and EUV wave in SDO/AIA 193, 211, 304, and 171. There is also filament ejecta seen during and following the eruption in SDO/AIA 304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-13T14:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 13.08 ---- 2024-02-11T02:58Z 46.67 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-13T19:00Z 17.37 80.0 2024-02-11T04:30Z 45.13 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2024-02-13T16:46Z (-4.99h, +5.78h) 15.13 ---- 2024-02-11T07:56Z 41.70 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-02-13T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.63 ---- 2024-02-11T13:22Z 36.27 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-02-13T14:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 12.73 ---- 2024-02-11T13:23Z 36.25 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-02-13T10:00Z 8.37 70.0 2024-02-11T14:16Z 35.37 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2024-02-13T06:55Z 5.28 ---- 2024-02-11T16:05Z 33.55 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-02-13T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 13.37 70.0 2024-02-12T06:50Z 18.80 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-02-13T13:42Z (-18.0h, +18.0h) 12.07 80.0 2024-02-12T10:34Z 15.07 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 7.0
IZMIRAN Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) Detail
2024-02-13T12:23Z 10.75 75.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.83333
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Wide CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen south of AR 3576, centered around S30E05, which appears to deflect south. This eruption is best seen as dimming starting around 2024-02-10T06:96Z in SDO AIA 193. Following this eruption, post-eruptive arcades/rising loops are seen near AR 3576. This eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO AIA imagery from 2024-02-10T06:55Z-07:22Z. Opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171 and post-eruptive loops are best seen in SDO AIA 94. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-12T22:31Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.12 ---- 2024-02-10T15:52Z 57.77 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-12T17:16Z (-3.0h, +4.88h) -8.37 ---- 2024-02-10T16:58Z 56.67 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-02-12T23:00Z (-11.0h, +13.0h) -2.63 70.0 2024-02-10T17:55Z 55.72 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-02-12T19:03Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.58 ---- 2024-02-10T18:26Z 55.20 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-12T14:52Z -10.77 ---- 2024-02-10T20:02Z 53.60 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-02-12T19:00Z -6.63 60.0 2024-02-11T02:22Z 47.27 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2024-02-12T09:28Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -16.17 ---- 2024-02-11T13:20Z 36.30 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-02-12T22:10Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.47 ---- 2024-02-11T13:21Z 36.28 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-02-12T18:25Z -7.22 65.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.4 - 5.8
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-13T01:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Faint CME visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Most clearly visible in a few early frames of SOHO LASCO C3. Overlaps with CME: 2024-02-08T23:48Z in the field of view of the coronagraph. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-02-08T23:23Z to 2024-02-09T02:23Z. The source is a filament eruption lifting off starting around 2024-02-10T20:00Z in SDO AIA 304, centered around S35W05. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304. | Arrival note: Minor increase in B_total, solar wind speed, and temperature. A gradual increase in density follows the start of the arrival and is drawn out over the course of 24 hours. This arrival may be associated with the combined influences of the CMEs with IDs 2024-02-09T00:12:00-CME-001, 2024-02-10T07:00:00-CME-001, and 2024-02-10T23:36:00-CME-001.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-12T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -11.63 ---- 2024-02-10T17:57Z 55.68 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-12T19:03Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -6.58 ---- 2024-02-10T18:26Z 55.20 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-12T16:31Z -9.12 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T08:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: CME visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is seen as a filament centered around N45E05 lifting off in SDO AIA 304 around 2024-02-06T09:33Z. Dimming can also be seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. | CME arrival note: Brief increases in B_total, temperature, and solar wind speed. Possible flux rope signatures are present in magnetic field parameters following arrival start time. Density increases prior to the arrival.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-10T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.40 ---- 2024-02-06T19:53Z 84.52 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-10T16:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) 7.60 30.0 2024-02-08T15:29Z 40.92 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Other (SIDC) Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-10T12:00Z 3.60 30.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-06T02:53:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-09T21:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Source of this partial halo CME is an M2.2 class flare from AR 3575 (S34W65) peaked at 2024-02-06T02:28Z and followed by an M4.2 class flare. The flare was associated with a large eruption seen in SDO AIA 193/304/171/131 and STEREO EUVI 195 starting at 2024-02-06T02:13Z (ejecta, EUV wave, post-eruptive arcades and circular dimming around them and rising). | Arrival note: Amplification in magnetic field components, with gradual enhancement starting around 2024-02-09T17:30Z, and shock observed starting at 2024-02-09T21:40, with B_total increasing from 7nT to approx. 9.37 nT. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from approx. 387 km/s to approx. 500 km/s and increases in density and temperature.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-09T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -13.67 ---- 2024-02-06T13:49Z 79.85 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-09T02:21Z -19.32 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-02-08T20:42Z (-5.41h, +7.45h) -24.97 ---- 2024-02-06T15:29Z 78.18 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

CME: 2024-02-02T04:17:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: CME seen to the SE in all coronagraphs. Source is an eruption from AR 3571 with an associated impulsive M1.1 class flare that peaked at 2024-02-02T03:01Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as field line movement and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and dark filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304. It is possible that the L1 arrival signature unfolding over 2023-02-04 to 2023-02-06 includes the arrival of this (or another) CME arrival, as it includes a drop in temperature and density on 2024-02-05, however the gradual increases in Btotal and solar wind speed as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components are largely more indicative of a high speed stream.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-05T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-02-02T20:58Z 61.03 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-06T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 20.0 2024-02-05T05:26Z 24.57 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2024-02-05T20:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-02-01T08:00:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-04T02:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Partial halo CME to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source centered around N20E05. A C3.0 flare peaked at 2024-02-01T07:43Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive arcades in STEREO A EUV 195 and SDO AIA 193, but eruption is partially obscured by an eclipse in SDO From 2024-02-01T06:42Z to 2024-02-01T07:51Z. Filamentary material seen lifting off in GOES SUVI 304, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171, and post-eruptive arcades are best visible in SDO AIA 94. Possible arrival signature is unclear. The complex signature is characterized by gradual increases in Btotal (to 11nT) and solar wind speed (to 500 km/s), as well as rapid fluctuations of magnetic field components indicative of a high speed stream. It is possible that this signature includes a CME arrival, as it also encompasses a drop in temperature and density over 2024-02-05. The signature will be revisited once Level 1 solar wind data is available.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-02-04T18:00Z 15.42 ---- 2024-02-01T11:18Z 63.28 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-02-03T15:41Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -10.90 ---- 2024-02-01T13:58Z 60.62 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-04T02:16Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -0.32 ---- 2024-02-01T14:28Z 60.12 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-02-03T21:52Z (-5.31h, +6.05h) -4.72 ---- 2024-02-01T16:44Z 57.85 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-02-03T21:07Z -5.47 ---- 2024-02-01T17:07Z 57.47 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-02-03T20:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -5.67 ---- 2024-02-02T08:36Z 41.98 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-02-04T02:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 0.13 ---- 2024-02-02T08:38Z 41.95 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-02-03T14:53Z (-13.3h, +13.3h) -11.70 ---- 2024-02-02T09:14Z 41.35 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-02-04T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 1.42 40.0 2024-02-02T12:49Z 37.77 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-02-04T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 3.42 40.0 2024-02-02T16:30Z 34.08 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-02-04T00:44Z -1.85 40.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-01T05:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M6.8 class flare from AR 13559, best observed in SDO AIA 131. This eruption is also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with subsequent field line movement, an EUV wave, and post eruptive arcades following the flare visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Possible arrival/glancing blow signature of arrival of this CME at L1: enhancement in magnetic field components with an increase in B_total from 3.6 nT to over 7 nT, reaching a maximum near 8 nT. Rotation of all three magnetic field components. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 390 km/s to 440 km/s and increases in temperature and density (to ~5nT) were also observed.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-31T06:02Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -23.27 ---- 2024-01-29T14:39Z 62.65 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-31T09:50Z (-5.0h, +6.57h) -19.47 ---- 2024-01-29T14:51Z 62.45 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-01-30T13:47Z (-12.8h, +12.8h) -39.52 ---- 2024-01-29T16:06Z 61.20 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-01-31T06:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h) -23.30 40.0 2024-01-29T16:24Z 60.90 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-01-31T01:52Z -27.43 ---- 2024-01-29T17:00Z 60.30 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-31T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -21.30 ---- 2024-01-29T18:35Z 58.72 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-30T20:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -32.38 ---- 2024-01-29T20:28Z 56.83 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-31T00:00Z -29.30 50.0 2024-01-30T02:11Z 51.12 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2024-01-31T03:00Z -26.30 25.0 2024-01-30T11:59Z 41.32 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-31T14:17Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -15.02 ---- 2024-01-31T00:39Z 28.65 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-01-31T03:34Z -25.73 38.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.42857 - 5.42857
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-24T01:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-28T03:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source may be an eruption from AR 3561 (approx. S17W45) best seen as brightening and moving field lines in SDO AIA 193. Candidate associated flare is an M2.6 class flare peaking at 2024-01-24T01:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. It is also observed in STEREO A EUV imagery. A wider shock appears to be visible in the coronagraph imagery ahead of the bulk of the CME. The start of the possible arrival signature for this CME is approximate. The signature is characterized by gradual increase in B total to 12nT, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components and a drop in temperature. A drop in density happens closer to 2024-01-24T12Z. Alternatively, this signature could be the late arrival (glancing blow) of 2024-01-23T17:36Z CME and/or a minor coronal hole high speed stream.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-28T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -1.70 20.0 2024-01-24T15:13Z 84.48 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-28T02:00Z -1.70 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-23T17:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-28T03:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: CME seen to the SW in all coronagraphs. Source is very likely an M4.3 class flare from AR 3561 (S17W39) which peaked at 2024-01-23T16:40Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as opening field lines and a small dimming region in SDO AIA 171/193/211, and some filament material erupting in SDO AIA 304. Potential CME arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching 12nT at 2024-01-28T09:34Z and by rotation of two magnetic field components. Closer to 10Z there is rotation of all three magnetic field components and a drop in density. However, this arrival signature is also characterised by a slow increase in solar wind speed from ~350 km/s to just under 490 km/s around 2024-01-29T03Z, accompanied by minor increase in temperature, possibly indicating an admixture of a brief coronal hole high speed stream. Alternative CME candidate could be 2024-01-24T01:36Z CME.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-27T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -19.70 ---- 2024-01-24T14:06Z 85.60 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T09:00Z -42.70 ---- 2024-01-24T18:07Z 81.58 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -191
Dst min. time: 2024-01-26T17:00Z
Anemomilos WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) Detail
2024-01-26T20:30Z -31.20 ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-23T07:24:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Not visible in STEREO A COR2 until 2024-01-23T12:09Z due to a data gap. The candidate source may be from AR 3561 (approx. S15W35), which had a C9.6 class flare peaking at 2024-01-23T07:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Brightening and opening field lines can also be seen in SDO AIA 171/193. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-26T13:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-24T17:29Z 43.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T11:27Z ---- ---- 2024-01-25T07:27Z 28.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-26T12:26Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-23T04:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. Source is an eruption from AR 13561 at S19W31. Dimming and EUV wave with southward deflection seen in SDO AIA 193 around S19W31 starting at 2024-01-23T03:15Z. Opening field lines seen in SDO AIA 171. This CME is associated with a flare from Active Region 13561 (S19W31), which occurs simultaneously with a higher intensity flare from Active Region 13559 (N29E18). The combined flux of this flaring activity is the M5.1 flare with peak time 2024-01-23T03:31Z. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap lasting from 2024-01-23T03:53Z to 2024-01-23T12:23Z. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-26T16:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 50.0 2024-01-23T16:34Z 71.43 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T14:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-23T22:17Z 64.03 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T14:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-24T00:33Z 61.82 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T13:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-24T17:29Z 43.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-25T22:57Z ---- ---- 2024-01-25T05:57Z 17.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-26T11:24Z ---- 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.2
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-23T03:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Fast but faint CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. Source is an eruption from Active Region 13559 (N29E18). Opening field lines and brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 171 at 2024-01-23T03:21Z. Brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2024-01-23T03:21Z. This CME is associated with a flare from Active Region 13559 (N29E18), which occurs simultaneously with a lower intensity flare from Active Region 3561 (S19W31). The combined flux of this flaring activity is the M5.1 flare with peak time 2024-01-23T03:31Z. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap lasting from 2024-01-23T03:53Z to 2024-01-23T12:23Z. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-26T17:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-24T17:43Z 47.28 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T09:19Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-01-26T01:38Z (-3.94h, +5.41h) ---- ---- 2024-01-24T23:39Z 25.98 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

CME: 2024-01-22T22:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It is fairly faint in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source appears to be an M3.4 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:21Z and/or an M1.6 flare from AR13561 peaking at 2024-01-22T21:43Z. There are opening field lines visible with this close to the flaring region as seen in SDO/AIA 193. There is no clear arrival signature for this CME in solar wind data at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-26T13:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 25.0 2024-01-23T16:37Z 69.05 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-27T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-23T22:37Z 75.38 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T14:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-24T00:33Z 61.82 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T13:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-24T17:29Z 43.95 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T16:52Z ---- 25.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.75 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T05:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-25T13:59Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.40 ---- 2024-01-22T17:54Z 59.68 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-25T01:21Z (-6.02h, +8.75h) -4.23 ---- 2024-01-22T18:13Z 59.37 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-01-24T23:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -5.92 50.0 2024-01-22T19:15Z 58.33 ---- sunRunner1D Pete Riley (PSI) Detail
2024-01-25T00:58Z -4.62 ---- 2024-01-22T19:25Z 58.17 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-25T17:20Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 11.75 70.0 2024-01-23T16:30Z 37.08 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-26T00:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h) 18.42 40.0 2024-01-24T05:00Z 24.58 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-01-25T09:33Z 3.97 53.3333 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.25
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-21T00:36:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the E/NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME overlaps partially with the faint CME seen to the E/SE starting at 2024-01-20T23:12Z. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption and associated flaring seen in AR13559. The filament sat along the lower boundary of this active region, stretching from ~N20E32 to N25E50 and is centered around N20E41. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of the CME seen at 2024-01-20T09:24Z and this CME beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-23T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 27.98 ---- 2024-01-21T16:47Z 23.23 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-22T12:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.08 ---- 2024-01-21T17:04Z 22.95 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-23T05:59Z 13.97 ---- 2024-01-21T17:31Z 22.50 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-23T22:11Z (-10.72h, +10.76h) 30.17 ---- 2024-01-21T18:22Z 21.65 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-01-23T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 20.98 ---- 2024-01-21T22:10Z 17.85 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2024-01-23T20:00Z 27.98 50.0 2024-01-22T01:50Z 14.18 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2024-01-23T11:41Z 19.67 50.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.8 - 5.4
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001
Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
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CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-22T13:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -2.70 ---- 2024-01-20T16:38Z 47.38 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-22T08:00Z -8.02 ---- 2024-01-20T17:16Z 46.75 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-23T06:00Z (-9.0h, +7.0h) 13.98 70.0 2024-01-20T17:24Z 46.62 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-01-22T05:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) -10.27 ---- 2024-01-20T18:49Z 45.20 ---- sunRunner1D Pete Riley (PSI) Detail
2024-01-22T18:22Z (-3.54h, +4.61h) 2.35 ---- 2024-01-20T19:08Z 44.88 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail
2024-01-22T16:59Z 0.97 ---- 2024-01-20T19:10Z 44.85 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-22T18:00Z (-12.0h, +6.0h) 1.98 80.0 2024-01-21T00:35Z 39.43 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-01-22T11:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -4.88 ---- 2024-01-21T12:10Z 27.85 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-01-23T00:13Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) 8.20 ---- 2024-01-21T12:12Z 27.82 ---- EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) Evangelos Paouris (UoA) Detail
2024-01-22T12:56Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) -3.08 ---- 2024-01-21T17:04Z 22.95 Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Carina Alden (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-23T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 13.98 75.0 2024-01-21T17:44Z 22.28 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
Other (SIDC) Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-22T16:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) 0.48 80.0 2024-01-21T20:32Z 19.48 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM) Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) Detail
2024-01-22T18:00Z 1.98 80.0 2024-01-22T01:37Z 14.40 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS) Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) Detail
2024-01-22T12:29Z (-13.0h, +13.0h) -3.53 ---- 2024-01-22T10:54Z 5.12 ---- ELEvo Eva Weiler (ASWO) Detail
2024-01-22T16:50Z 0.82 77.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 4.44444 - 6.44444
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-09T15:48:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Filament eruption seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and for a few frames of STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption in the SE quadrant of the Earth-facing disk, stretching from about E60 to E15 at latitude S35. Liftoff can be seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2024-01-09T13:00Z. Opening field lines and the rise of a flux rope are seen in SDO AIA 171 and dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 around 14:00Z. Data gap in STEREO A COR2 Beacon imagery lasting from 2024-01-09T15:53Z to 2024-01-10T01:23Z so CME is not captured at all. CME partially overlaps with another filament eruption CME to the southeast.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-12T09:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-10T14:42Z 42.30 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-12T02:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-10T17:45Z 32.75 ---- sunRunner1D Pete Riley (PSI) Detail
2024-01-12T08:21Z ---- ---- 2024-01-10T19:21Z 37.00 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-12T10:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail
2024-01-12T20:09Z (-8.85h, +11.42h) ---- ---- 2024-01-11T01:58Z 42.18 ---- CMEFM v.0.1 Garrett Imhoff (Other) Detail

CME: 2024-01-06T17:36:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source is the second instance of dimming seen in SDO AIA 193, located at E45 and stretching from N25-N35, starting at 2024-01-06T16:20Z. Source also includes the lovely rising loop seen in SDO AIA 171, which is first visible off the NE limb at about 2024-01-06T15:30Z with field line movement at the suspected footpoints on the disk at N25E45 and N25E35. Post-eruptive arcades seen starting at 2024-01-06T18:48Z between the two suspected footpoints. There was no STEREO A COR2 imagery available for this CME due to a large data gap from 2024-01-06T09:23Z to 2024-01-07T04:09Z. There was no clear arrival for this CME. An increase in solar wind speed at L1 just prior to 2024-01-10T18:00Z may be a weak coronal hole high speed stream and possible weak CME arrival.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-10T01:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-07T20:59Z 52.02 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail
2024-01-10T01:00Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-06T08:12:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source is likely a large dimming region in the vicinity of AR 3536 which begins around 2024-01-06T05:04Z (best observed in GOES SUVI 171/195 due to an SDO outage at the time) and spanned about E20->W10 and N03->S08, deflected largely south and east from the AR. A complex multi-peaked flare best observed in GOES SUVI 131 occurred with this event, prompting 4 separate mid-level C-class flares associated with this event. GOES SUVI 304 also observed some darker, filamentary material lifting off and deflecting to the SE. There is no clear evidence of CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-09T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-01-06T23:55Z 50.08 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-01-10T00:01Z ---- 20.0 2024-01-07T01:11Z 70.83 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-01-09T13:00Z ---- 20.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.5
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

CME: 2024-01-05T01:53:00-CME-001
This CME was not detected at Earth!
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Bright CME in the SE with the source is likely a significant eruption just SE of AR 3536 (N06E23) seen in AIA and SUVI 304 starting at 2024-01-05T00:20Z, with an EUV wave seen in AIA 193.
Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By
2024-01-08T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) ---- 8.0 2024-01-05T16:16Z 67.73 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
Other (SIDC) Tony Iampietro (M2M) Detail
2024-01-08T18:00Z ---- 40.0 2024-01-07T01:07Z 40.88 Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Met Office (Met Office) Detail
2024-01-07T22:57Z ---- ---- 2024-01-07T01:10Z 21.78 Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
SARM Marlon Nunez (UMA) Detail
2024-01-08T09:39Z ---- 24.0 --- --- Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 5.0
Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

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