CME Scoreboard: Previous Year Page
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Past CMEs From 2020:
|
CME: 2020-12-30T02:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Small eruption on the Earth-facing disk after 2020-12-30T01:00Z, east of AR12795 near S20E08, as best seen by SDO/AIA 193/211 and STEREO-A EUVI 195 (towards the Western limb of the STEREO-A-facing disk). The shock front is possibly seen in COR2A after 2020-12-30T02:00Z, but it is very difficult to measure given the CME is faint and the apparent brightness of the western streamer.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2021-01-02T15:55Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-30T18:05Z |
69.83
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Austin Skipper (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2021-01-02T02:11Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-31T16:30Z |
33.68
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2021-01-02T09:03Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-10T01:29Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C7.4 flare from AR 2790 (S23W11) that peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The eruption signature of this event can be seen in SDO AIA 193/304 starting as early 2020-12-07T15:30Z. The chosen start time for this CME event is the initial time it was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery since SOHO LASCO data was unaavailable during real-time analysis. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: Beginning at 2020-12-10T01:29Z, DSCOVR detects magnetic field strength increases to 10 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 450 to 600 km/s, density jumps to over 20/cc, and temperatures jump to over 300,000 K. Similar signatures are seen by ACE at the same time.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-12-09T05:23Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-20.10
|
----
|
2020-12-07T20:49Z |
52.67
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 8.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T22:55Z
|
-2.57
|
----
|
2020-12-07T23:00Z |
50.48
|
----
|
SARM
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T08:00Z
|
-17.48
|
----
|
2020-12-08T04:10Z |
45.32
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-9.48
|
70.0
|
2020-12-08T06:21Z |
43.13
|
Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0
|
Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
|
Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T03:32Z
(-7.0h, +12.0h)
|
-21.95
|
----
|
2020-12-08T07:00Z |
42.48
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-10T00:23Z
(-9.0h, +7.0h)
|
-1.10
|
----
|
2020-12-08T07:15Z |
42.23
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T07:22Z
(-5.3h, +7.1h)
|
-18.12
|
99.0
|
2020-12-08T08:08Z |
41.35
|
----
|
DBM
|
Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T17:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-8.48
|
90.0
|
2020-12-08T09:57Z |
39.53
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T21:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
-4.48
|
80.0
|
2020-12-08T10:30Z |
38.98
|
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-10T06:03Z
|
4.57
|
----
|
2020-12-08T11:02Z |
38.45
|
----
|
CAT-PUMA
|
Jiajia Liu (QUB) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T19:00Z
|
-6.48
|
----
|
2020-12-08T12:30Z |
36.98
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T19:45Z
|
-5.73
|
----
|
2020-12-08T15:22Z |
34.12
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T22:00Z
|
-3.48
|
----
|
2020-12-08T15:24Z |
34.08
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T06:54Z
(-6.0h, +8.0h)
|
-18.58
|
100.0
|
2020-12-08T16:55Z |
32.57
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Austin Skipper (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T05:00Z
|
-20.48
|
----
|
2020-12-09T01:04Z |
24.42
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-09T15:13Z
|
-10.27
|
87.8
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.83333 - 7.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-12-01T07:12:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Filament eruption from AR12787 starting after 2020-12-01T06:30Z as seen by SDO/AIA 094/131/171/193/211/304, and by STEREO-A EUVIA 195. Front enters into the field of view of SOHO C2 at 2020-12-01T07:12Z, C3 at 2020-12-01T08:06Z. The CME front appears as a partial halo in STEREO-A COR2 at 2020-12-01T08:39Z, which is the first available image after a data gap that started at 2020-12-01T07:45Z. The DSCOVR and ACE data are remarkably different for the in-situ signature. DSCOVR data seems to have erroneous sharp increases. From the ACE data, we cannot identify any shock or ICME on Dec 3-5.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-12-04T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2020-12-01T16:12Z |
61.80
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 5.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-04T21:28Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-01T19:14Z |
74.23
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-03T20:29Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-01T19:22Z |
49.12
|
Max Kp Range: 4.5 - 5.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-05T00:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-01T21:33Z |
74.45
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-04T13:27Z
(-3.92h, +5.33h)
|
----
|
6.0
|
2020-12-02T00:18Z |
61.15
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-04T02:04Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-02T02:00Z |
48.07
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-03T20:34Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-02T02:15Z |
42.32
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-04T04:50Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-12-02T07:51Z |
44.98
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-04T02:27Z
|
----
|
22.0
|
2020-12-02T08:05Z |
42.37
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-04T07:28Z
|
----
|
26.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.625 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-12-02T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
3.00
|
30.0
|
2020-11-30T08:00Z |
37.00
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-02T00:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
3.00
|
50.0
|
2020-11-30T09:42Z |
35.30
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 6.0
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-02T05:31Z
|
8.52
|
----
|
2020-11-30T10:46Z |
34.23
|
----
|
CAT-PUMA
|
Jiajia Liu (QUB) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-03T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
27.00
|
----
|
2020-11-30T12:30Z |
32.50
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-02T02:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
5.00
|
----
|
2020-11-30T21:35Z |
23.42
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-01T00:10Z
(-9.0h, +12.0h)
|
-20.83
|
----
|
2020-11-30T22:00Z |
23.00
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-01T21:13Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
0.22
|
----
|
2020-11-30T22:15Z |
22.75
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-02T09:00Z
|
12.00
|
----
|
2020-12-01T21:22Z |
-0.37
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-12-02T01:44Z
|
4.73
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.5 - 4.75
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-11-22T01:36:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: This CME is associated with an eruption showing dimming to the NE and SW of AR 2783 starting around 2020-11-21T15:20Z. Rising field lines associated with this event are visible in SDO AIA 171/193 near S35E15. The leading edge of this CME is faintly visible in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery as early as 2020-11-22T01:36Z. The visibility of this CME in SOHO LASCO C2 is obscured by the emergence of a nearly simultaneous CME also associated with this eruption from AR 2783.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-11-26T16:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-11-23T21:47Z |
66.22
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-11-26T04:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-11-25T07:30Z |
20.60
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-11-26T10:03Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-10-27T03:39:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-11-01T08:41Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 3.0
CME Note: This CME is associated with a filament eruption from N30E10 of the Earth-facing disk shortly after 2020.10.26T22:30Z and can be seen in all SDO imagery. The strongest darkening can be seen in SDO 193 and 211 between 2020.10.26T22:30Z and 2020.10.27T01:33Z.
Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I see clear flux rope signatures on Nov 1-2. The whole structure duration is 11/01 ~12:00 UT to 11/02 ~6:00 UT. The maximum magnetic field strength would be less than 10 nT, but it is higher than the average of the ambient magnetic field. There is a smooth and coherent change in the magnetic field direction with signatures of internal complexity. Low temperature, density and signatures of expansion in the solar wind bulk velocity. This is probably a streamer blowout.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-11-01T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-8.68
|
----
|
2020-10-27T22:57Z |
105.73
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Austin Skipper (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-11-01T01:00Z
|
-7.68
|
----
|
2020-10-28T12:31Z |
92.17
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-10-30T15:00Z
|
-41.68
|
----
|
2020-10-28T14:19Z |
90.37
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -73
Dst min. time: 2020-10-31T07:00Z
|
Anemomilos
|
WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) |
Detail
|
| 2020-10-30T21:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
-35.68
|
40.0
|
2020-10-28T15:30Z |
89.18
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-10-29T18:45Z
|
-61.93
|
----
|
2020-10-28T17:24Z |
87.28
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-10-30T23:57Z
|
-32.73
|
----
|
2020-10-28T17:28Z |
87.22
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-10-31T00:37Z
|
-32.07
|
40.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-10-30T20:41Z
(-3.0h, +9.0h)
|
-36.00
|
----
|
2020-10-29T07:30Z |
73.18
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is a large prominence eruption near S30E25 in SDO imagery, occurring around 2020-08-16T17:01Z; the eruption is observed in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304Å. A B1.2 flare measured by GOES-Primary that starts at 2020-08-16T17:01Z and peaks at 2020-08-16T17:26Z.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-08-20T03:00Z
(-9.0h, +9.0h)
|
----
|
60.0
|
2020-08-17T14:55Z |
60.08
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-20T02:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-08-17T15:33Z |
58.45
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-19T22:32Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-08-17T17:18Z |
53.23
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-19T18:30Z
(-7.58h, +6.35h)
|
----
|
100.0
|
2020-08-17T20:25Z |
46.08
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-20T05:48Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
50.0
|
2020-08-18T08:00Z |
45.80
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-19T15:54Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-08-18T09:45Z |
30.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.5 - 4.0
|
SARM
|
Marlon Nunez (UMA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-19T20:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-08-18T12:37Z |
31.38
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-19T21:30Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-08-18T15:49Z |
29.68
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-08-19T22:39Z
|
----
|
70.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.58333 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-07-19T09:36:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-24T00:18Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-07-24T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
11.70
|
30.0
|
2020-07-20T12:40Z |
83.63
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-23T13:02Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-11.27
|
20.0
|
2020-07-21T08:00Z |
64.30
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-24T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-0.30
|
----
|
2020-07-21T15:14Z |
57.07
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-24T00:20Z
|
0.03
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-07-09T01:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-13T20:35Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
Max Kp: 4.0
CME Note: This event is associated with a filament eruption visible between S30E05 and S30W25 in SDO AIA 193 imagery starting around 2020-07-08T20:32Z. Opening field lines corresponding to this event can also be seen on the SW limb of STEREO A EUVI 195 starting at 2020-07-08T09:05Z. The CME appears as a gradual brightening in the western streamer of STEREO A COR2 and later as a partial halo (southward) in SOHO LASCO C2/C3.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-07-14T14:00Z
|
17.42
|
----
|
2020-07-10T05:30Z |
87.08
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-13T21:21Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
0.77
|
----
|
2020-07-10T08:30Z |
84.08
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-14T04:47Z
|
8.20
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-14T03:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
6.42
|
----
|
2020-07-15T16:17Z |
-43.70
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-07-05T17:24:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-09T15:50Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The start time of the CME was changed as seen on SOHO LASCO. There were two CMEs, an earlier one headed towards STA that overlaps with this event that was seen around 2020-07-05T14:24Z. CME arrival date/time is not certain as there are two potential flux ropes. From Lan Jian First CME short and weak, arrived at around 20:45 UT on July 8. Another flux rope seen in the second half day of July 9, with slightly stronger peak magnetic field strength around 15:50UT.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-07-09T13:00Z
|
-2.83
|
----
|
2020-07-07T04:00Z |
59.83
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
|
RWC Jeju (KSWC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-09T13:37Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-2.22
|
----
|
2020-07-07T08:00Z |
55.83
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-09T10:52Z
|
-4.97
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-07-09T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-9.83
|
----
|
2020-07-15T16:12Z |
-144.37
|
Max Kp Range: 1.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Colin Komar (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-05-26T00:39:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-05-29T22:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: Speculative source location is a brightening at the edge of the northern extension of the southern polar coronal hole. A faint ripple is visible in the western streamer in C2/C3 but this was not used for measuring. Shock arrival time description from Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: I think it is a flux rope followed by a high speed stream. I can see a magnetic field red-component rotation with polarity south-to-north. The blue y-component is mostly south. The solar wind speed within the structure is increasing, a signature of compression and also consistent with the changes in the red z-magnetic field component at the front of the structure. The structure is followed by an increase in magnetic field, proton temperature and solar wind speed.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-05-30T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
2.00
|
----
|
2020-05-26T17:44Z |
76.27
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Eframir Franco (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-30T08:05Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.08
|
10.0
|
2020-05-28T08:30Z |
37.50
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-29T02:27Z
|
-19.55
|
----
|
2020-05-28T08:59Z |
37.02
|
----
|
SPM2
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-31T04:15Z
|
30.25
|
----
|
2020-05-28T09:02Z |
36.97
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-30T03:41Z
|
5.68
|
10.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 3.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-04-27T13:54:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: The source is a filament eruption in the north east (N20E40) of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2020-04-27T09:15Z. The CME produced seems to be more deflected to the south as seen on the STA coronagraphs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-05-01T18:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-04-28T11:39Z |
78.35
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-01T16:35Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-04-30T08:00Z |
32.58
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-02T00:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-05-01T12:32Z |
11.47
|
----
|
Other (SIDC)
|
Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-05-01T19:31Z
|
----
|
----
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-03-02T20:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-06T14:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
CME Note: From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: The in-situ observations exhibit two coherent magnetic structures with monotonic changes in the magnetic field profile. Possibly, they could be the traces of streamer blow outs. Remote sensing observations are required to fully identify and characterize the structures. The first one arrives on march 6, around 14 hrs UT and last for 10 hrs. It is a coherent structure without clear rotation in the magnetic field rotation but low temperature. The second structure displays a magnetic field rotation and low temperature flux rope signatures. It starts around 14 hrs UT and last for 13 hrs.
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-03-07T00:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
10.00
|
----
|
2020-03-03T11:51Z |
74.15
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
M Crawford (GSFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-07T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
22.00
|
20.0
|
2020-03-03T18:00Z |
68.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-06T21:06Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
7.10
|
20.0
|
2020-03-03T21:30Z |
64.50
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-06T12:00Z
(-10.0h, +10.0h)
|
-2.00
|
----
|
2020-03-04T05:53Z |
56.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
|
Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-07T15:09Z
|
25.15
|
13.9333
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.66667 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-10T06:43Z
(-25.5h, +25.5h)
|
88.72
|
1.8
|
2020-03-04T14:45Z |
47.25
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-02-28T17:00:00-CME-001
|
| Actual Shock Arrival Time: 2020-03-04T18:00Z |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-03-04T12:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
-6.00
|
20.0
|
2020-03-03T18:00Z |
24.00
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-04T06:45Z
|
-11.25
|
15.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-03-04T01:30Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
-16.50
|
10.0
|
2020-03-03T20:30Z |
21.50
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-01-25T18:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-29T04:00Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-25T18:00Z |
82.00
|
Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -55
Dst min. time: 2020-01-29T17:00Z
|
Anemomilos
|
WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-29T16:52Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
10.0
|
2020-01-26T20:42Z |
68.17
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-30T06:00Z
|
----
|
50.0
|
2020-01-27T00:53Z |
77.12
|
Max Kp Range: 3.0 - 5.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-29T13:43Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 5.5
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-29T04:00Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-31T17:08Z |
-61.13
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Kelly French (GSFC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-01-14T10:00:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-18T06:00Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-15T17:09Z |
60.85
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
|
Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-19T06:00Z
(-12.0h, +12.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-16T08:50Z |
69.17
|
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-18T15:29Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2020-01-17T00:25Z |
39.07
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-18T17:09Z
|
----
|
25.0
|
--- |
--- |
Max Kp Range: 2.0 - 4.0
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
|
CME: 2020-01-06T00:01:00-CME-001
|
| This CME was not detected at Earth! |
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters:
----
|
| Predicted Shock Arrival Time |
Difference (hrs) |
Confidence (%) |
Submitted On |
Lead Time (hrs) |
Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) |
Method |
Submitted By |
| 2020-01-09T21:00Z
(-9.0h, +6.0h)
|
----
|
40.0
|
2020-01-07T04:30Z |
64.50
|
----
|
WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
|
Met Office (Met Office) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-09T21:58Z
(-7.0h, +7.0h)
|
----
|
20.0
|
2020-01-07T08:30Z |
61.47
|
----
|
EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
|
Evangelos Paouris (UoA) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-13T16:22Z
(-32.0h, +32.0h)
|
----
|
30.0
|
2020-01-08T16:56Z |
119.43
|
----
|
ELEvoHI
|
Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-10T05:24Z
|
----
|
----
|
2020-01-09T05:42Z |
23.70
|
----
|
SPM
|
Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) |
Detail
|
| 2020-01-10T22:11Z
|
----
|
30.0
|
--- |
--- |
----
|
Average of all Methods
|
Auto Generated (CCMC) |
Detail
|
|
Go Back to the Main Page
|
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