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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2023-01-15T18:30Z

Model Inputs:
2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-44.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=1024.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-01-15T07:08Z
2023-01-15T05:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-56.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=628.0, HalfAngle=46.0, Time21.5=2023-01-15T10:37Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
No or little impact to Earth.

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2023-01-19T12:11Z
Solar Orbiter with estimated shock arrival time 2023-01-17T11:48Z
STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2023-01-17T15:11Z [PE: 0.7 hr]

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230115_070800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note :
Based on visual inspection of the simulation results there is a chance for a glancing blow to Earth. However, there is no corresponding arrival in the Earth timeline prediction. If there is an arrival signature at L1 we should anticipate to see the possible glancing blow around 2023-01-18T03:00Z.

Submitted on 2023-01-15T18:32Z by Mattie Anastopulos

A Notification with ID 20230115-AL-004 was sent on 2023-01-15T18:35Z


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